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and further to fall methinks - little justification for current price imo
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K.C. , very slim chance he ever will read the forum.
I think that's Betfair's biggest problem , that the "decision makers" don't use the site activly and therefore they do not understand how the site works, they do not understand or acknowledge that active users have problems using the site and they do not understand what changes that active users wants. |
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WE will not attend. WE are not shareholders. HTH.
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hard to see any further UK expansion as current liquidity demonstrates, and the share price of c£7.30 reflects a considerable degree of hope for significant expansion abroad - and that is something that is unlikely to happen.
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Look out the Germans are coming....erm actually they are going (soon)like the French and the Polish and goodness knows who else.
I wouldn't begin to portray myself as an expert on Betfair's share price and why it has fallen so much but it will be little to do with technical site issues and much more to do with market conditions beyond their control imo. |
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As many other fast growing companies they have also taken on to many large expenses, like to many overpaid executives, to large staff in general and far to much money spent on customers "treatment"
If you have a good IT staff, this company would almost run itself, no need to pick management staff from the top shelf here. |
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Some shareholders will be customers and some shareholders that are not customers will do their research before attending the AGM. There's plenty of info on share discussion forums about the technological and staffing problems at Betfair.
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these UK issues whilst important for the company to get right will only have a marginal effect on the share price as Clydebank29 suggests - it is the bigger picture of expansion abroad, market conditions etc that is paramount so far as the share price is concerned.
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I agree to a point with the current user base issues (UK and abroad) having a marginal impact on the share price. I felt from the outset the original share price factored too much of potential future expansion into the US and other areas. The doors will eventually open up but will not happen for many years and while Betfair is positioning itself to take advantage of these new areas a lot can happen in the market place in the meantime. Nothing has really changed on this front regarding timeframes since flotation and while analysts have perhaps have come round to the opinion that the too much future potential was factored into the original valuation of the Company, the main reason the share price has under performed is that Betfair has lost the confidence of the city by consistantly not hitting the quarterly forecasts ever since the 1st quarter results reported to the city. It is basics that when floating a company your first quarter results are inline with the predictions you have reported to the city.
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Can't argue with much of that K.C.
I thought that their quarterly forcasts at the time of floatation included a reasonable element of expansion overseas that has not materialised - but I could be wrong. I must admit when I saw the floatation price of £13 - £15 I lost interest pretty quickly and did not follow it all as closely as I intended. I really thought that a £50m profit company (or whatever it is) would not have been floated at anything like the figure it was - something else that I called wrongly. |
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'forecasts' even
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Any mug who bought at the original price of £15 should give up any form of investing full stop tbh, other than to get out now and thank his lucky stars that the price is still about 50% higher than it should be!
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Hindsight turtle is a wonderful gift.
You're so lucky to have it in spades. |
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Btw turtle are you now sticking your head out and predicting BF shares to fall to circa 3.50 ?
Be clear if you are, and we will watch with interest and, of course, applaud you loudly if you turn out to be right. An overall market crash of all shares not being part of the equation though. That wouldn't be fair. |
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Still sponsoring Man Utd, Barcelona and at Ascot.... to use the old George Best quote where did it all go wrong?
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Shares in Betfair, the embattled FTSE 250 gambling group, touched a new low in trading amid mounting speculation that the company is hatching plans to find a new chief executive.
The news comes as the group prepares for next week's crucial full-year results statement, which follows a turbulent first eight months as a public company in which the shares have lost 43% and a string of middle managers have left. Sources close to Betfair say it has begun sounding out headhunters about potential successors to boss David Yu, who is believed to have told friends that he would like to return to his native America. When asked if the company is looking for a new chief executive, one shareholder said: "The City will demand it." Betfair declined to "comment on speculation". However, while sources close to the board insisted that no headhunting firm had been appointed, they would not deny the rumours swirling around the industry and the City that Yu would be leaving, possibly as soon as this autumn. This month's arrival of former William Hill director, Ian Chuter, as group operations director is seen by many in the industry as an attempt by Betfair to address some of the weaknesses that have emerged since its flotation in October. One headhunter said: "Chuter is a strong operations guy. What Betfair will now be looking for is somebody who is City-facing." Yu, who was absent from work in March 2010 with a cardiological complaint, has suffered a torrid induction to life as a public company boss. Betfair's shares listed at £13, implying a valuation which observers warned meant the company had been "priced for perfection". After a decent early run, the shares were soon savaged, with investors particularly disappointed by the group's interim results in December. At the time, analysts at Panmure Gordon described the numbers as revealing "anaemic revenue growth". The group has also suffered from a string of resignations including Mathias Entenmann, chief product and services officer; Charlie Palmer, head of mobile; Robin Osmond, chief executive of financial betting exchange LMAX; Matt Carter, director of architecture, research and prototyping; and Lee Cowles, director of UK sports and gaming. It also ran its own private polling of employees, which revealed staff believe their company is lacking direction. Betfair shares touch 715.79p in trading on Friday, a new low, but recovered later in the day to close up 8p at 743p. Analysts at Morgan Stanley predict that the company will announce a 9% rise in full-year revenues next week to £373m and a 15% rise in profit before tax to £31m. |
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"Btw turtle are you now sticking your head out and predicting BF shares to fall to circa 3.50?"
Maths is not your strong point, if I think they are overvalued by 50% now, that makes their correct price about £5, no? You didn't need to be mystic meg to work out their float price was ludicrously hyped up from thin air without any basis in reality. I just wish I had known that you could sell their price on the spreads ![]() |
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What Betfair will now be looking for is somebody who is City-facing."
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Turtle
So all the investment bankers/institutions involved in the float were basically mislead or incompetent ? As I say, hindsight is perfect. BF was probably overpriced because of its perceived monopoly/remium brand, everything else that has occurred was not necessarily so easily forecastable as you seem to imply. Have you ever worked in investment banking or even the general financial sector turtle ? |
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E dead
As opposed to Cheltenham or Emirates stadium etc etc ?. Maybe you're right if that's what you mean. |
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"So all the investment bankers/institutions involved in the float were basically mislead or incompetent?"
If they thought that betfair was genuinely worth £15 a share, and advised people accordingly, yes, darn right they were. Are you trying to tell me that financial institutions and investment bankers are always correct with their forecasts ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() So, to take an example, just before Lehman Brothers went belly up, were they all correct in their pricing skills just before they lost 99.9% of their value ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
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turtle
I think you have just answered my question. Thank you. |
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FAFH, I know you seem to enjoy your role as a permament betfair apologist, but surely you have to accept that the shares were grossly overvalued?
To be fair to the financial advisers in the float, they can point to the fact that they got the float away at the price they did, and also that (as all the best aftertimers on here) they can say that there were profits to be taken quickly. What you can't get away from is that the company simply isnt worth the value at which it was floated. Predicted growth hasn't materialised, legislation overseas has gone against them and key liquidity has gone in certain markets. Sure things may perk up, but that's true of any company - the current share price reflects the current state of play. People seem to think betfair are massive, but I read the other day (apols if wrong) that betfair made £20M last year, but bet365 made £120M? both pretty much online only businesses....what are they worth!! |
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fairfield
I'm no apologist for the BF share price. In hindsight they were not a good buy at the float price, that's indisputable, but to then say that means they were grossly overvalued is not the way things work. Many, many factors have contributed to the share price decline. They were priced into the mkt conditions existing at the time they were floated. If the float price had been "grossly" wrong at that time, then all sorts of alarm bells would have started to ring. As it was, the float got away quite normally and satisfactorily. 2nd guessing these types of things is quite common, particularly amongst those not really close to the action. I wasn't close in this case but I have been at certain times in other cases and, believe, all bases are covered as far as possible at the time. |
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To put the record straight my ONLY interest in BF is that it continues on strongly and profitably, and continues to offer the likes of me a truly viable alternative to the HS " bookies" who will not take any of my bets.
Without BF many, many fellow profitable punters will be left totally high and dry. That to me is the doomsday scenario. The rest is all just chatter and noise. |
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The only part of that that I'd disagree with is the second last sentence.
Without Betfair somebody else would have to fill the gap. They're lined up ready and waiting. |
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Fair enough point Rocket.
It would have to be filled I agree. |
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Shareholders are understood to have expressed their dismay at the leadership of the company after a gruelling nine months that have seen shares floated at £13 last October hit a recent 715.79p low.
They closed at 743p on Friday, up 8p, valuing the business at £802m. The American-born Mr Yu, who is in his early forties and earns £500,000 a year, joined Betfair as chief technology officer in 2001 and played a pivotal role in developing the systems that underpin the exchange. He became chief executive in January 2007. His departure is not thought to be imminent and he is expected to present Betfair’s full-year results on Wednesday when analysts expect core earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation of about £73m. Brought to market at a racy multiple by Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Barclays Capital and Numis Securities, Betfair has struggled to grow revenues and been hit by a range of regulatory problems, executive departures and the poor performance of its start-up LMAX financial exchange. In a recent note, Vaughan Lewis, a Morgan Stanley analyst, said: “Betfair has faced what we see as a perfect storm since listing.” He highlighted “adverse regulatory changes”, including an attempt by Italy to revoke Betfair’s licence and a draconian approach from Germany. Having seen quarterly sales growth of 22pc at the time of the float, Betfair had also “effectively stopped growing”, while losing market share to rivals such as William Hill and Paddy Power. Mr Yu briefly suffered from a “cardiological complaint” in March 2010 but his looming departure is not linked to any health problems. There are rumours that his wife is keen for them to return to America. The leading internal candidate to replace Mr Yu is thought to be finance director Stephen Morana. Betfair declined to comment. |
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They have gone ex-growth in their home market and face increasing regulatory headwinds abroad.
Imv they need to get much leaner, trim off a lot of the new hires and the 'customer experience' personnel that could only befit a much bigger company and focus on their USP. This shd be price--even though variable commission, the pc and low-margin standard bookmaker products like Asian hcaps and football muddy the waters. Their advertising shd focus much more clearly on the central message their prices are better, maybe including some sort of guarantee like the bookmakers' specious 'best odds guaranteed'. Abroad they thought the issue was integrity but it has turned out much more to be the vested interests of incumbents. They need to cultivate relationships w/ legislators and policymakers just as they did in the UK. |
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For your average mug though BF prices are rarely better on fancied outcomes so their is little incentive to come over here rather than sticking with bookie accounts.
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there
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FAFH - you may have overlooked the fact that a relatively small number of shares were offered for sale at the time (at least that was my understanding) and consequently the economics of supply and demand came into play. There were plenty of people on here who thought they were well overpriced at the time and indeed said so.
Personally I think the shares will go down to £5 or perhaps less (assuming the FT index remains roughly where it is now) and perhaps I may then pick up a few shares. I do not think their expansion plans overseas are realistic - hence my view on the current share price. A solid enough small company making very modest profits, but that is all it is imo. |
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They achieved a good price for those who wanted to realise the cash value of their investment.
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FAFH you are still talking tripe, the shares were valued at something like 20x earnings...that is grossly overvalued imo.
Clydebank is correct in what he says - which was the aim of this exercise... |
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any idea who'll win the derby lads... pour moi looks a good thing (imho)
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The share were actually valued at 30x profits (£1.5bn based on profits of £50m)
It's hardly speaking with hindsight to say that anyone who thought that was good value is a total mug. ![]() Clydebank is spot on, the outcome of cashing in was fulfilled, and god help anyone stupid enough to be sucked in by the hype.... |
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I've pondered what could be done to extend their growth. It's a tough one.
The growth into other markets is difficult when the global economy is in total decline. It's not like you can say "market A's economy is soft so let's focus on market B". The economy is in a holding pattern. So... Andrew Black brought an innovation to the betting world that others have now mimicked, exchanges and bookies. It will come down to innovation again. While bookies need to concentrate on maintaining their streams, Betfair needs to take THEIR platform to another level for both the user base and to make it inviting to punters to explore a new portal into betting. I realize they have left the "trading platforms" to others to develop but there are couple of approaches that would need some pretty in depth engineering to offer the speed and functionality. The ideas are there (I have two I have doodled with for years that a world-wide user-base would use). It's a matter of finding the team to bring to put them together. |
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turtleshead, on 30X....
if anyone walked into a bank and asked for an injection based on 30 times returned, they would be shown the door in a blink. Duncan Ballantyne would have had the Dragon Den's first recorded heart attack. |
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Indeed.
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