General Betting
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The ©Schalke 04© 1 from 7 Challenge thread 2011
The ©Schalke 04© 1 from 7 Challenge thread 2011
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next bet: (Tennis) Lisicki/Stosur to bt Erakovic/Tanasugarn @ 4/9 - £6.03 to win £2.68 while 1-1 0-1
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Banks: 1) £2.01 2) £6.03 3) £20.09 4) £60.27 5) £181 6) £543 7) £1629
Increase every £13.40 = 1) 1p 2) 3p 3) 9p 4) 27p 5) £1 6) £3 7) £9 Total Won: £47.36 Current Winnings to carry: £10.28 --- Total Withdrawn: £23.68 27. (Tennis) Bryan/Bryan to bt Melz/Petz @ 1/3 - £2.00 to win £0.67 - WON 28. (Tennis) Sharapova/Volandri DOUBLE - £2.00 to win £1.82 - lost 29. (Football) Fjolnir v Leikner DRAW @ 1/2 - £6.00 to win £3.00 - lost 30. (Snooker) B.Hawkins to bt N.Bond @ 8/11 - £20.00 to win £14.55 - lost 31. (Tennis) Bryan-Bryan/Nadal DOUBLE - £60 to win £48.33 - WON 32. (Tennis) Glushko to bt Kostova @ 1/16 - £2.00 to win £0.13 - lost 33. (Tennis) Lisicki/Stosur to bt Erakovic/Tanasugarn @ 4/9 - £6.03 to win £2.68 - WON ©Schalke 04© |
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Shout out to Cheezy Monkey !!!
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Schalke 04
27 Jun 11 15:55 I do undersatdn value, but what people don't understand is that value on it's own is pretty pointless ... I know you don't want to hear it Schalke, but no you definitely do not understand value, your statement above proves that. Just a couple of lines about value because I don't want to bore you to death or waste my breath, but it seems that many intelligent punters find it difficult to truly grasp the concept of value betting - the only way to succeed long term. The fact is, if you judge your performance by your results rather than the prices you achieved, then you don't understand serious gambling for profit. For example, I could have a weekly tally come in at minus 100 points after betting at value in say 500 markets, and if I ask most punters what they're opinion of that result is, most will say that's a bad week. But the results really do not matter at all, honestly! The objective of the game is to identify value and then attempt to get matched at that value. So to me losing 100 points is irrelevant, the week was a success because I placed all the bets at value - objective achieved. I would happily attempt to get matched on heads or tails at 2.2 over and over again and possibly lose every one all week long, and I could still see that as a successful week. Until a punter has learnt to see that, which takes time, it's very unlikely that they'll be making long term money through gambling. |
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The objective of the game is to identify value and then attempt to get matched at that value. So to me losing 100 points is irrelevant, the week was a success because I placed all the bets at value - objective achieved.
Trevh I am firmly in the camp of you have to be obtaining value to have any chance of long term success, your statement is wrong imo..... yes the object is to obtain value but no the week was not a success for the simple reason that although you think you may have obtained value that certainly does not mean you have.... only long term will tell whether it was a success or not , not you saying you got value so therefore it was a success |
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value is a myth
i've explained it before and wont again as too busy. |
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at least though you weren't too busy to share that little nugget of information with us.
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I'd get that coin looked at trev ;)
Trying to explain value to Schalke is as futile as his systems, he simple claims to understand and then dismisses it as irrelevant. It has also been tried many times and failed! |
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Schalke may not understand what the theory of value is but his final conclusion is correct.
On betfair value CANNOT exist unless you are trap betting or in the loop on some betting scam. |
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absolute rubbish
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actually you are correct. At the extremes of betfair, value does exist (the very places schalcke normally bets) . 1.01 instead of 1.001 and 1000 instead of 2000.
if i'm wrong explain why |
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I would also agree that those pepole finding better value prices will make more money long term BUT only if they get the required amount of winning bets in order to make it profitable. I absolutley loved the comment about getting 2.2 on tails all week, yeah that would be great getting that price all week, but you aint gonna put food on the table if the coin spins to heads everytime are you !! And then I am guessing you will prob come back and say that tails will come in, how do you know? Could be heads everytime, unless you agree in the law of averages .... VALUE ON IT'S OWN IS USELESS !!
Nobody can win the arguement of value v winning bets because value would lose everytime, in order to make money you need BOTH eliments !! |
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next bet: (Tennis) M.Gonzalez/Riba DOUBLE - £2.01 to win £1.44
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im willing to bet that the people on here talking about the value aspect as being the most important part of a bet are winning accounts and the ones dismissing it are losing accounts
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Correct Gerbs. Making value bets results in your winning bets totalling a greater amount of money than your losing bets. All long term winners on here get overall value, even if they don't realise it - although I suspect the vast majority do.
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Making value bets results in your winning bets totalling a
greater amount of money than your losing bets. TOTAL DRIVEL, and if you dont understand why, you dont understand reality and what betfair is |
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I have made a living on here for 6 years, takethestand
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Take the stand
Would you back Man UTD @ 1.01 to beat Liverpool in a premier league match? Would you back Man UTD @ 10/1 to beat Liverpool in a premier league match? If you have answered no to the first question and yes to the second I would be interested to hear why. If you haven't answered no to the first question and yes to the second question, I will leave you too it as we would be only completely different wavelengths |
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If you haven't answered yes to the first question and no to the second question, I will leave you too it as we would be only completely different wavelngths
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Dlarssonf, I know what you mean ref your 08.44 coment, but believe me, I know when I get value or not and therefore judge my weeks and months by the value I've achieved, not the results. The results will take care of themselves, I cannot control them at all, all I can control is the price I get.
Schalke, I said I would be looking for 2.2 on heads OR tails, not just tails. I have no control over the outcome, only the price I get. Your statement at 12.41 again shows you actually have no idea of the concept of value. Takethestand, your comments are frightening! Oh well, it's good that many punters don't understand value I guess, if we all did very little would ever get matched. |
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Trevh - no problem I understand what you are saying, I wish you continued luck!!!
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Trevh ... all you control is the price, and you cannot control the result = from exactly what you have wrote can you not realise that getting a good price is not enough?
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VALUE = Is getting a bottle of Smirnoff Vodka for £1.19 value?
Is getting a steak pie for £0.59 reduced from £5.99 value? Is getting a bid of £150,000 for the house you are selling at £100,000 value? Is getting Man Utd to beat Liverpool @ 10/1 value? |
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Trevh
Date Joined: 21 Jul 06 Add contact | Send message When: 05 Jul 11 15:51 Joined: Date Joined: 21 Jul 06 | Topic/replies: 1,001 | Blogger: Trevh's blog Dlarssonf, I know what you mean ref your 08.44 coment, but believe me, I know when I get value or not and therefore judge my weeks and months by the value I've achieved, not the results. The results will take care of themselves, I cannot control them at all, all I can control is the price I get. Schalke, I said I would be looking for 2.2 on heads OR tails, not just tails. I have no control over the outcome, only the price I get. Your statement at 12.41 again shows you actually have no idea of the concept of value. Takethestand, your comments are frightening! Oh well, it's good that many punters don't understand value I guess, if we all did very little would ever get matched. Ok, head OR tails, whatever, getting 2.2 on either is great but if your selection doesn't come in you are going to LOSE, getting value or not !! |
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Hehe, I do not care at all when the flip of that coin comes up the opposite to my bet, I can't control or predict the outcome of a fair flip in any way. Some days I would expect to get perhaps 15 wrong in a row at that price (perhaps every bet placed) and yes I would view that as a good day having achieved the objective.
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So, you have just admitted that getting value doesn't make you win
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You could turn up for a coin flipping bet, the guy giving you 3/1 for heads or tails, your choice but as he goes to do the first flip the coin slips out his hand and goes down a drain ...
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trevh ...
go and read sideshowbobs thread if you havn't already ... the guy got great value on some bets but is £6k out of pocket, just shows you value doesn't get you a holiday in Hawaii !! |
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yeah exactly dlarssonf, thats what trevh's reaction would be when the coin goes down the drain .... but it's cool, he got great value and is away skipping down the road
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seriously schalke , people are trying to help you because every thread you have had has ended in tears.... you seem a nice bloke so try listen to others much more qualified ( and i am not talking about myself ) . of course you need to back winners to succeed but if they are not value you WON@T SUCCEED LONGTERM... you will go on for a few months thinking you are doing the right thing but you will be caught out eventually
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dlarrson
that is far more likely to be trap betting. I wouldnt back man utd to beat liverpool at 1.01 as it wont be the best price available by a long way, it will be a trap bettor. Similar at 10/1 its a mistake by another not the actual price. Are you suggesting that professional gamblers who bet value are trap bettors and look to take advantage of those with fat fingers? |
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Yeah, my next 7 bets could all be losers, but my next 7 bets could all be winners, we just don't know, but I will try and use my judgement on stats, current form, opinions ... getting better value on my winning bets will reduce potential losses if I were to get a run of 7 losing bets. But getting 7 great value bets is not going to make any difference if they all lose.
My arguement is simple, value is not the most important thing in a bet and for people to say it is well they are completely wrong (unless they are trading on Betfair) value does NOT determine the outcome of something happening, it may be a slight indication to what could happen but it does NOT make it happen. I will succeed long term with this thread if I find good prices on WINNING bets ... as my stakes are set, then I MUST find a winning bet and hopefully at good prices !! |
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value example
you get 2.5 on a heads/tails scenario. you bet tails each time but lose 10 times. You took the value but you have now lost your house and wife. What now??? Value is such a small part of what you should be thinking about to be successful! |
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exactly of you are a good judge and are getting at least close to the actual price.....
speaking of actual price, think about how football matches are priced, there is no way to prove what is acturate, just a colllection of opinions derived from 100's a factors. Once the rsult is known you can then speculate on value ITS A MYTH |
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and another arguement I have is that one person could think something is value, and another could think it's not value ... who is right? Is the person correct the one AFTER the outcome has happened, or is value only spoke about before a bet starts ....
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seems we are thinking along the same lines takethestand lol ... some of the guys on here talking about value are probably the ones that buy all the food at the supermarket thats off and not fit to be eaten ....
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To all the people that continue to say value is the most important part of a bet please put the answer to the follwing ....
Go and find 10 great value bets at bookies that are starting at 8pm, go and place your bets before 7pm and tell me how much you have all made @ 7:45pm .... can't wait to hear your answers |
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ok there is obviously no talking to you both so good luck
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thats cause you know we are right dlarssonf ... and it also shows there is no value in talking about value, cause value gets you nowhere without an OUTCOME !!
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