General Betting
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The ©Schalke 04© 1 from 7 Challenge thread 2011
The ©Schalke 04© 1 from 7 Challenge thread 2011
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Don't confuse with "its pointless getting into a debate with you" as believing you are right. As I said best of luck but I absolutely disagree with everything you say but hey so be it
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Thanks for the good luck, but how can you disagree? How is getting value going to make Man Utd beat Arsenal and more importantly how is it going to make you money? How is value going to make Nadal beat Murray? How is losing every single value bet you place going to make you money?
If you can answer those three questions with answers then I shall really listen to what you have to say ... |
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takethestand are you winning on betfair
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next bet: (Football) Livingston to bt Hibs DNB @ 4/7 - £6.03 to win £3.45 while 1-0 up @ 20 mins
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yes sir but only due to wins before 18 months ago. Since then my records show being down £1400 including (because of)poker.
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thanks
give up the poker theres no value in it  |
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18 days and counting
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Banks: 1) £2.01 2) £6.03 3) £20.09 4) £60.27 5) £181 6) £543 7) £1629
Increase every £13.40 = 1) 1p 2) 3p 3) 9p 4) 27p 5) £1 6) £3 7) £9 Total Won: £48.71 Current Winnings to carry: £10.95 --- Total Withdrawn: £24.36 29. (Football) Fjolnir v Leikner DRAW @ 1/2 - £6.00 to win £3.00 - lost 30. (Snooker) B.Hawkins to bt N.Bond @ 8/11 - £20.00 to win £14.55 - lost 31. (Tennis) Bryan-Bryan/Nadal DOUBLE - £60 to win £48.33 - WON 32. (Tennis) Glushko to bt Kostova @ 1/16 - £2.00 to win £0.13 - lost 33. (Tennis) Lisicki/Stosur to bt Erakovic/Tanasugarn @ 4/9 - £6.03 to win £2.68 - WON 34. (Tennis) M.Gonzalez/Riba DOUBLE - £2.01 to win £1.44 - lost 35. (Football) Livingstone to bt Hibs DNB @ 4/7 - £6.03 to win £3.45 - WON ©Schalke 04© |
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next bet: (Tennis) Hass to win set 2 v Berrer @ 4/6 - £2.01 to win £1.34
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Banks: 1) £2.01 2) £6.03 3) £20.09 4) £60.27 5) £181 6) £543 7) £1629
Increase every £13.40 = 1) 1p 2) 3p 3) 9p 4) 27p 5) £1 6) £3 7) £9 Total Won: £50.06 Current Winnings to carry: £11.62 --- Total Withdrawn: £25.04 30. (Snooker) B.Hawkins to bt N.Bond @ 8/11 - £20.00 to win £14.55 - lost 31. (Tennis) Bryan-Bryan/Nadal DOUBLE - £60 to win £48.33 - WON 32. (Tennis) Glushko to bt Kostova @ 1/16 - £2.00 to win £0.13 - lost 33. (Tennis) Lisicki/Stosur to bt Erakovic/Tanasugarn @ 4/9 - £6.03 to win £2.68 - WON 34. (Tennis) M.Gonzalez/Riba DOUBLE - £2.01 to win £1.44 - lost 35. (Football) Livingstone to bt Hibs DNB @ 4/7 - £6.03 to win £3.45 - WON 36. (Tennis) Hass to win set 2 v Berrer @ 4/6 - £2.01 to win £1.34 - WON ©Schalke 04© |
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next bet: (Tennis) Pennetta/Volandri DOUBLE - £2.01 to win £1.38
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Schalke 04
Thanks for the good luck, but how can you disagree? How is getting value going to make Man Utd beat Arsenal and more importantly how is it going to make you money? How is value going to make Nadal beat Murray? You can't make any result happen and you can't know any result in advance. Nobody knows who is going to win a match between two football teams even 1 minute from the end, as you have found many times. The ONLY thing you can judge before the event is value and that is the only thing worth having. Of course a bet if a bet loses you would prefer that you hadn't taken it with hindsight but this is true of any bet whether you get value or not. Your convoluted staking plan conceals (until Lori comes along with his spreadsheet [:p]) to a certain extend whether you are getting value or not because it has the illusion of success that all martingale systems have right up to the point that they blow your bank away. Lori and other have said this before but it is basic common sense that a system that sees you betting £2 on most bets and then occasionally £1600 solely because you have previously lost half a dozen bets in a row isn't credible. I know you've been told this lots of times and had value explained over and over again and that you will again in the future. I hope that at some point someone will succeed in making you see the childlike, obsessive stupidity of your arguments and your systems and you will find something better to do with your time, |
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Cheesymaxwell ya div !!!!
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example
Scotland v England You expect scotland to win and expect to find them at 1.5 Log in and you find the best price is 1.4 Do you a) lay the price because its value b) back because you still think scotland will win c) or no bet i'd be interested in the answer from both schalke and the other guys |
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You do nothing tts
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Lay it.
If you 'still think they will win' do you back it even @1.15  |
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You have made a meaningful calculation concerning option a). It's clearly the most likely outcome, any idiot can see that so 'you still think they will win' is a worthless subjective view. Successful gamblers deal in likelihoods not predicting the future.
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your are right schalke, value does not make an individual outcome happen...
but why o why o why can you not get it though your head that in is not individual results that matter it is large samples of results... you keep on repeating the same arguements about value not making man u beat liverpool etc and you are absolutly right, but do you not realise that if you apply your exact same arguements to the long term you are basically saying: 'what is the use of getting 2.1 on heads if tails comes up 900 times out of 1000' or 'how is losing 95 even money shots in a row going to make you any money?' or 'what would you rather have, 1000 bets on tails at 1.5 and 700 winners or 1000 bets on tails at 2.2 and 400 winners?' can you not see how obvious it is that in theory you are 100% correct and nobody can tell you you are wrong... but in practice you are 100% retarded for making such silly points and for being pathologically incapable of realising how and why they are silly... |
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On the note of, if I think Scotland will win and the price is 1.4 instead of 1.5 then I think my instant reaction to take it or not would decide whether I still think it's a good bet or not, I can't say right now if I would or wouldn't. If I thought they were going to win but it was 1.15, then I would totally disagree with tobermory, I wouldn't lay it, I would avoid the bet unless of course I still thought the 1.15 was a good bet ...
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well puma, the point I am trying to get across is simply that value is not the most important part of a bet (unless you are trading) what I am trying to say is that even though you might find value bet after value bet it does not guarantee you making a profit, you must also find winning bets, looking for value is simply not enough ... and there are plenty of possible value bets out there cause of the price, but does value make people make bad decisions about the outcome of bets? I would say it can do ....
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next bet: (Football) Argentina to bt Columbia @ 4/9 - £6.03 to win £2.68
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Schalke, you couldn't be more wrong ref your post at 01.46, the outcome of the bet is irrelevant, that's the point a lot of punters seem to struggle with, but each to their own, it takes all sorts to make an exchange work.
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"The outcome of a bet is irrelevant"
This has to be statement of the century, or maybe even as famous as neil armstrongs quote when he didn't land on the moon .... The outcome of a bet might be irrelevant if trading on a betting exchange, I shall agree with that as I have always done, but in any other betting, the only way you can win or lose at betting is with an outcome !! |
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next bet: (Snooker) S.Maguire to bt L.Wienbo @ 4/7 - £20.00 to win £11.43
Oh but according to Trevh, if the 4/7 on Maguire is value then I have already won !! I am going to go and phone bet 365 and ask them why my money is not in my account, I will need to use the quote "the outcome of the bet is irrelevant" and surely then they will settle my bet as a winner |
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They hung the phone up on me trevh !! Any idea why they would do that? I think I will give Maguire a text, just to let him know that he is into the q-finals of the tournament, I'll let him know as well that the outcome is irrelevant and that he can just go back to bed, don't think Liang will be too happy about it but
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Schalke, people who understand this properly aren't allowed accounts at bet365 [;)]
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Mine is just a new account so I havn't been restricted or banned yet ... just a matter of time though lol
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You mean they will wait until you've had a meaningful number of bets before judging your overall profitability?
What fools [;)] |
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I have been a profitable gambler for the last 8 years so I understand why they close accounts or restrict them but it shouldn't be allowed !!
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Trevh
Maguire is winning 2-0 but the bookies still havn't paid out yet, so looks like I really am going to wait on the outcome of the match, cheers for trying to help though |
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No worries Schalke, and I would guess you have no worries of being restricted at 365. I can't believe someone who doesn't understand the basics of value has been successfully gambling for 8 years, sorry but it doesn't stack up.
Can you see why the punter who backed Maquire at 1.9 on Betfair (whilst you were taking 1.57 on 365) cannot lose long term regardless of the outcome of that match? I bet the answer is no. I don't know why I'm bothering here really, I guess it's because I'd like to see you succeed but can see you don't have a chance using your current methods, which is a shame for the effort you put in. I'll leave you in peace now :) |
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Yes, I can fully see your point and I totallu understand where you are coming from ... only on Betfair though or if he never traded. If maguire had lost he would have lost his money, ok, if he was doing the same bet as me to win the same amount he would have been able to stake less, but in any betting you still need the right outcome in order to make money ... even when trading you still need the better outcome for whichever way you have greened out ... betting is not all about value, it's like a business, you need more coming in than going out, and your product is WINNING bets whether it's trading or gambling on sports.
I have done hundreds of different methods of betting, some have been sucessful, and some have not, and it's the ones that have not that I then put down to experience and cut my loss and never do it again, the ones which are succesful (like this method) I shall continue ... |
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next bet: (Tennis) Isner to bt Bogomolov @ 1/4 - £1.98 to win £0.50
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Schalke you don't understand that you can't know your bet will win before you place it therefore your argument against value i.e value doesn't matter so long as you pick winners is useless in the real world because you don't know when the winners and losers will come. All you can do is get a price which means that the winners you have pay out slightly more than your total losses.
This isn't up for argument because it's a fact. If you're right and we're all wrong then prove it. Otherwise I think it's time you stop being stubborn, spend a few hours doing some reading and then put your effort into a value picking system. If each one of your selections is going to win then why are you putting £2 on it? In case it loses? Exactly. Think about it. |
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schalke, you insist on looking at it one individual result at a time, if a bet is poor value but wins anyway you are happy and dont care about value...
this is all very well for one single bet but how do you think this philiosophy applies to a large number of bets? concider 1000 coin tosses: 1000 bets on tails @ 2.1 requires 477+ winners to profit 1000 bets on tails @ 1.9 requires 527+ winners to profit you put so much emphasis on the importance of 'finding winners', well can you see how taking poor value simply increases the number of winners you are required to 'find'? can you see that you dont control the coin and that you dont 'find' tails, they just happen, and that the price you took is actually what determins your P/L? when you say 'finding value is simply not enough you must also find winners' and 'value is useless if the bet doest win' can you see how the worse value your bets are the luckier you need to get with finding winners? hitting a poor value winner is all very well but exactly how many times in a row do you think you are going to get lucky schalke?? do you think the gods are on your side?? do you not belive in probability/maths? consider this, you have probably found a higher proportion of winners than the rest of the forum combined! and really, how far has it gotten you? |
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puma
07 Jul 11 21:38 Joined: 03 Feb 02 | Topic/replies: 101 | Blogger: puma's blog can you see that you dont control the coin and that you dont 'find' tails, they just happen, and that the price you took is actually what determins your P/L? Very accurate. Shalke, if you read this sentence and still refuse to believe then there is no option but to label you a cretin. You're a good guy but with the number of chances you've been given and the great free advice you've been given you're starting to walk a very fine line between ignorant and downright retarded and I mean that seriously and not in a derogatory manner. |
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hehe had to laugh at that :)
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The fact is there are people on here who would give their right arm to be given the advice he has been given and they'd make it their business to investigate it, collaborate it and work with it.
Schalke ingests sensible information, mixes it up and projects it as primary school shyt. |
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the coin example is rubbish. we can calculate the true price accuratly.
pricing up sport is not an exact science. the real price differs every time you bet. so how do you decide value???? you cant . its drivel and usually only surfeses when a bet loses. gettinf 2.2 on a coin toss....VALUE, getting value of betfair is either trap betting or fat fingers |
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yeah i only bother because he seems a decent guy despite his pig-headedness...
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