General Betting
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you cannot and will not make a profit on football betting in the long run..
you cannot and will not make a profit on football betting in the long run..
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So how come Ian Erskine's Fts service makes decent profits, im looking to getting this anyone got any feedback?
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Hello there Ernie and Bert.
You state that everyone should give up on footy as you will end up broke. It appears from you opening post that you only seem to bet on short price favourites and not really use any statistical information to back up your bets. How can you be sure that someone who bets in a different way to this will also end up broke. |
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doridoru 26 Apr 11 07:28
So how come Ian Erskine's Fts service makes decent profits, im looking to getting this anyone got any feedback? there loads of scammers out there with systems ... this is just one of them a quick search an he does lay the draw ... hardly clever or worth paying for |
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Hello there U.A,
My point is that whether you back short or long etc , it will eventually bite you in the ars. Ive been through all the markets and it all comes down to luck and gambling.Unless you have an edge which simply isnt there you cant make a long term profit. Unless you can tell me what it is? This sport is so unpredicatable. Discipline is an important part of it but very very few people have it. We all say I will place a bet and turn off but soon this stops and some night you are bored and start doing stupid things and blow it and start chasing. Most if not all footy punters have been down this road. If you have somebody in partnership with you then you may make a go of it but lady luck can take care of you while still having discipline. |
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Ernie you are in a partnership with Bert and it still doesn't help you.
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Unless you have an edge which simply isnt there you cant make a long term profit.
Are you saying you think no-one really has an edge on betfair? |
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There are in your face blatant edges shown in every match every day of every week. They're staring you right in the face
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Soccer / Champions League; Top Goalscorer 08/09 Backed - Lionel Messi 2000.00 B 1.02 WON 39.99
Soccer / Champions League; Top Goalscorer 08/09 Backed - Lionel Messi 896.19 B 1.02 WON 17.92 Soccer / UEFA Champions League; Top Goalscorer 09/10 Backed - Lionel Messi 50.00 B 1.13 WON 6.51 Just back Lionel Messi to be Champions League Top Goalscorer every year for the rest of his career, and you'll be quids in  |
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Betting Profit & Loss
%&%&%& 26-Apr-2011 23:28 Period: Download to Spreadsheet ? (relates to event settlement date) (yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm) to (yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm) Golf: -DKK96.00 | Greyhound Racing: -DKK2,982.42 | Horse Racing: DKK10,671.81 | Soccer: DKK26,058.86 Total P&L: DKK33,652.25 Soccer Showing 1 - 20 of 64 markets Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (DKK) Soccer / Man City v Man Utd : Match Odds 16-Apr-11 17:15 16-Apr-11 19:12 -2,955.00 Soccer / Tottenham v Real Madrid : To Score 13-Apr-11 19:45 13-Apr-11 21:48 418.73 Soccer / Aberdeen v Rangers : Over/Under 2.5 goals 13-Apr-11 19:45 13-Apr-11 21:47 336.99 Soccer / Aberdeen v Rangers : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 13-Apr-11 19:45 13-Apr-11 21:46 276.05 Soccer / Tottenham v Real Madrid : Correct Score 13-Apr-11 19:45 13-Apr-11 21:38 342.25 Soccer / Tottenham v Real Madrid : Match Odds 13-Apr-11 19:45 13-Apr-11 21:37 449.32 Soccer / Tottenham v Real Madrid : Half Time Score 13-Apr-11 19:45 13-Apr-11 20:31 -270.00 Soccer / AGF v Roskilde : Match Odds 13-Apr-11 18:00 13-Apr-11 19:50 688.32 Soccer / Man Utd v Chelsea : 1st Goal 12-Apr-11 19:45 12-Apr-11 20:28 1,751.06 Soccer / Valencia v Villarreal : Match Odds 10-Apr-11 20:00 10-Apr-11 21:50 -60.00 Soccer / Valencia v Villarreal : Over/Under 2.5 goals 10-Apr-11 20:00 10-Apr-11 21:21 29.83 Soccer / Valencia v Villarreal : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 10-Apr-11 20:00 10-Apr-11 21:15 549.70 Soccer / Valencia v Villarreal : Half Time Score 10-Apr-11 20:00 10-Apr-11 20:49 503.14 Soccer / OB v Brondby : Match Odds 10-Apr-11 17:00 10-Apr-11 18:53 1,089.84 Soccer / Aston Villa v Newcastle : Half Time 10-Apr-11 16:00 10-Apr-11 16:49 -585.70 Soccer / Aston Villa v Newcastle : Half Time Score 10-Apr-11 16:00 10-Apr-11 16:49 -279.69 Soccer / Blackpool v Arsenal : Match Odds 10-Apr-11 13:30 10-Apr-11 15:23 543.01 Soccer / Blackpool v Arsenal : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 10-Apr-11 13:30 10-Apr-11 15:06 1,298.80 Soccer / Bologna v Napoli : Half Time 10-Apr-11 14:00 10-Apr-11 14:49 604.07 Soccer / Blackpool v Arsenal : Half Time Score 10-Apr-11 13:30 10-Apr-11 14:19 481.00 Pages: 1 2 3 4 of 4 Pages Jump to page: Profit and Loss is shown net of commission. All times are UKT ? unless otherwise stated. |
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only goes back 3 months but I hope it helps the OP give up
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If you want to help him give up, at least show him losses!
Basketball: -£286.40 | Soccer: -£6,459.73 | Tennis: -£76.05 | Tote: | Total P&L: -£6,822.18 Basketball Showing 1 - 20 of 20 markets Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£) Basketball / Atlanta @ Orlando (Game 2) : Match Odds 20-Apr-11 00:35 20-Apr-11 03:17 372.29 Basketball / Utah @ Memphis : Match Odds 22-Mar-11 00:05 22-Mar-11 02:19 2.90 Basketball / Texas A M @ Oklahoma State : Match Odds 20-Feb-11 02:00 20-Feb-11 04:26 0.18 Basketball / Brose v Braunschweig : Match Odds 13-Feb-11 16:00 13-Feb-11 17:56 54.95 Basketball / San Antonio @ Philadelphia : Match Odds 12-Feb-11 00:05 12-Feb-11 02:26 2,381.04 Basketball / Dallas @ Denver : Match Odds 11-Feb-11 03:35 11-Feb-11 06:19 7,503.01 Basketball / Dallas @ Denver : Total Match Points 11-Feb-11 03:35 11-Feb-11 06:02 1.75 Basketball / Golden State @ Phoenix : Total Match Points 11-Feb-11 02:05 11-Feb-11 04:21 0.94 Basketball / Golden State @ Phoenix : Match Odds 11-Feb-11 02:05 11-Feb-11 04:20 -22.01 Basketball / San Antonio @ Toronto : Match Odds 10-Feb-11 00:05 10-Feb-11 02:27 -2,867.65 Basketball / Missouri @ Kansas : Match Odds 08-Feb-11 02:00 08-Feb-11 04:13 -5.64 Basketball / Asvel v Hyeres Toulon : Match Odds 05-Feb-11 19:00 05-Feb-11 21:18 105.72 Basketball / Utah @ Denver : Match Odds 05-Feb-11 03:35 05-Feb-11 06:17 -5,000.00 Basketball / Miami @ Orlando : Match Odds 04-Feb-11 01:05 04-Feb-11 03:47 -1,212.23 Basketball / Lottomatica Roma v Scavolini Siviglia PS : Match Odds 30-Jan-11 17:15 30-Jan-11 19:01 -392.20 Basketball / Bremerhaven v Brose : Match Odds 30-Jan-11 16:00 30-Jan-11 17:49 -15.40 Basketball / Aris v Panellinios : Match Odds 30-Jan-11 14:30 30-Jan-11 16:18 -31.20 Basketball / Manresa v Real Madrid : Match Odds 30-Jan-11 11:30 30-Jan-11 13:37 -117.90 Basketball / New Jersey @ Milwaukee : Match Odds 30-Jan-11 01:35 30-Jan-11 03:57 -428.95 Basketball / Indiana @ Chicago : Match Odds 30-Jan-11 01:05 30-Jan-11 03:28 -616.00 |
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The Investor - at those prices, all your previous profit accumulated over previous YEARS could very easily be wiped out in an instant if Messi suffers an injury that rules him out of a couple of rounds of the CL.
E&B is absolutely correct in his original assertion that there is no consistent long-term profit to be gained from betting on football. There really are just too many imponderables to try and counter. |
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I.quit.my.country Joined: 09 Jun 10
Replies: 123 26 Apr 11 22:47 Ernie you are in a partnership with Bert and it still doesn't help you. |
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TI : If you want to help him give up, at least show him losses!
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E&B is absolutely correct in his original assertion that there is no consistent long-term profit to be gained from betting on football. There really are just too many imponderables to try and counter.
That's very narrow minded thinking Plechy. I think Ernie (and probably Bert) and Plechy's problem is that they are trying to predict the future, which is impossible of course. |
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i predict that Barca v Real will finish in a draw tonight. Everyone who believes that it is impossible to predict the future should now be laying the draw for their full bank, as this has now become an impossible outcome.
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B&E - The rude bit first and then some advice!
I find your thread title incredibly foolish and arrogant which might go part way to explaining why you cannot make it pay. Your assumption that because you cannot make it pay then neither can others (is arrogant in the extreme) - have you considered that others might not be as daft as you? The sport (football in this case) is actually irrelevant - lots of sports can be unpredictable at times - this game (all sports) is all about prices. If you persistently bet at the "correct" prices you will lose or at best break even and lose to commission, if you persistently bet at the "wrong" prices, over time you will win - this applies to all sports. It's as simple as that! Getting the "wrong" prices is another matter but if you give it some thought you might figure it out. A pointer - In my experience you are more likely to find "wrong" prices very early on (before the market has found its level) and in running (where their is often significant over/under reaction before the market finds it level again). That's all you are getting from me - but there is enough there! Forget football (as a game), forget any particular sport - think Prices, Prices and Prices. |
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(yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm) to
(yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm) Cricket: £67.65 | Golf: £86.48 | Horse Racing: £1,201.00 | Snooker: £1,468.89 | Soccer: £1,558.97 Total P&L: £4,382.99 I don't normally post these but above is my last 30 days - and I am no expert on any of those "sports" except Horses Racing where I like to think I know a bit (and ironically that is my worst 30 day result on HR for quite some time!) - Prices, prices & did I mention prices? |
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The owners of Brighton and Brentford seem to make a few quid out of footie.
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I actually named myself after the best footballer in the world to modestly reflect my status as the best footie punter in the world
Reality is, theres plenty of millionaires around just from betting on football. If i was to name myself again i'd opt for a more realistic name like Crouchrat.  |
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i think quite a few who make money on football would be laughing at this
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U.A. : i predict that Barca v Real will finish in a draw tonight. Everyone who believes that it is impossible to predict the future should now be laying the draw for their full bank, as this has now become an impossible outcome.
Your guess could be right or wrong, obviously. |
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Messsiiiii!
The best player in the world, and still he's underrated. If you made absolute bundles from my fabulous tip, I expect no reward. Please make a donation on my behalf to the Battersea Dog's Home instead. |
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And number two. 'However brilliant he is, he goes and does it again. Give Ronaldo & Co a three goal head start next year, and they'll be in with an outside chance.
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So 'The Management', are we to assume, having previously derided the OP for his "foolish and arrogant" thread title, that you took the advantageous odds-againt price on Barca tonight and cleaned up with their 2-0 victory?
I think we should be told . . . |
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Hi Plechy - I think in all fairness the OP's thread title deserves to be derided - so I stand by my comments. Unless of course you agree with him (that because he is unable to make it pay that nobody else can either)? I am never going to be a rocket scientist (because I don't have the capability) - but I believe they exist!
And in fairness I then went on to give some advice. I didn't have a bet in the CL game at all (it's all about prices, remember!). I went to the pub. |
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That's interesting The Management. I would have thought everyone that makes money on football would bet on that.
Roughly speaking the 'bigger' the match, the more I can expect to make. I place hundreds of bets a day though. I guess you're much more selective. |
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Showing 1 - 50 of 220 bets for yesterday, about 200 of them on the CL match.
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I think we have different styles of play Investor.
I had it down as likely to be a negative/cagey match and likely to be poor (as a spectacle) but so did most pundits and this was pretty much reflected (imo) in the prices. I toyed with selling goals on the spreads but couldn't see much upside at 2.35. I toyed with under 2.5 goals but would have wanted more than the 1.80 that was available. Also toyed with Barcelona HT/FT (when Barca were drifting nicely) but would have wanted more than the 5.50 that was available (when I left the house). I had a very satisfactory day on the Horses, so couldn't see much up side in getting involved in a match where any price advantage was (imo) very marginal - games don't come much bigger but in terms of the way I bet, there are better games for me to get involved in every day of the week. I think I am turning into Kevin Pullein (in my old age) but if the horses are kind, I find it very easy to pass on games like that. |
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have to agree with TM that the thread title was an exercise in asking for it (or fishing for tips/pls)
why post something that lots of people know not to be true from their own direct experience? |
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It is quite a natural thing to do though guys. I remember from reading the market wizards books how some of the guys that got rich with fundamental analysis said technical analysis was nonsense. Kind of like saying, 'look I'm really successful, what I do works, I tried that other stuff and failed, it doesn't work.'.
The only part of that sentence that's true is the 'what I do works' bit. If you succeed at something, you've proved it's possible. The mistake people make is thinking the reverse is also true: 'if you fail at something, you've proved it's impossible.' A fairly obvious but common flaw, even among otherwise intelligent individuals. |
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Hello Investor. The common flaw that causes this is arrogance and does not have much to do with intelligence.
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All points accepted, ive waved the white flag and admit defeat. And to posters The Management and the investor, i am delighted you make it work, you are part of the minority. I didnt mean any arrogance, you can understand my deflation typing the original thread after the horrible luck i had, there was also a previous weekend with horrendous luck. I chased and got done. I do however stand over the point that it is very very difficult to make it work.
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