General Betting
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you cannot and will not make a profit on football betting in the long run..
you cannot and will not make a profit on football betting in the long run..
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Please define "correct" probability for a single event
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Why do so many people still place bets before a match kicks off. In my opinion they way to go has to be in match trading. In all the money i have made on here nearly all has come from in play.
You trade what your eyes are seeing you dont need countless bundles of information. If a team is playing well and looking dangerous you should be backing. If they score your quids in. Of course not saying it is easy as everyone would be winning, but the better you read a match and how the odds are moving the more money you will make. |
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Hello there Chelseaheadhunter.
There are many reasons why people still place bets before a match kicks off, but here are the two best ones i can think of. 1) They reside in a country where they are unable to place bets when a game is in-play. 2) They can make a good profit by trading football games pre-match and have very little experience of in-play trading. Hope this helps |
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Sandown Joined: 06 Dec 01
Replies: 707 14 Apr 11 13:19 Please define "correct" probability for a single event It's exactly the same as the correct probability for a repeatable event. |
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Thank you Lori.
 It was the "correct" aspect I was hoping for, in terms of a unique event.Fancy a try? |
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Sandown, you could use the same argument to say there is no correct price for a share. There is also uncertainty involved. I'm not saying you are wrong, but I can't see how choosing to look at things in that way has any practical value in betting terms.
Actually I recently did come to the conclusion that objective price does not even exist. It's perfectly rational for one person to be willing to pay 20p for an apple, and another £1. Equally one person may value a stock at £10, and another at £12, as they give more or less weight to certain elements that combine to form the value of a company. Basing value on some average price others are willing to pay also has obvious flaws. If correct price doesn't exist, that blows EMT out of the water, for different reasons than the obvious ones. To use a different example, I would even say that it can be rational for someone to (knowingly) place a negative expectation bet in a casino just for fun. If the benefit derived from it makes up for the cost, the transaction makes sense. |
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I take it as axiomatic that a correct price for a given bet exists.
I then set out to find how I can best approach that correct price. ^ This is useful, as I can make money with this process. The whole different opinions thing doesn't appeal to me at all. I don't know if you think that it really doesn't exist, or just that it isn't knowable (big difference). |
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If a team is playing well and looking dangerous you should be backing.
But everyone else watching can see what you can, so the odds shorten, and maybe shorten too much. If you'd watched the first 10 minutes of the 2009 Champions League Final you'd have been backing Man United at just above Evens , when they had been 6/4 or so at kick off. |
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To take it further, as tobermory says, everyone sees the same, so how
do you bet when the favourite is being over run early, and go quickly from 2.0 to 2.5, do we back them, expecting them to correct the flow, or do we oppose them before they go a goal behind ? |
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It's surprising how accurate BF kick off prices are over the course of thousands of events. I've recorded tens of thousands of football prices and over that time they are amazingly close to neutral.
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Trevh, i would be not surprised, but amazed if if BF prices
were not accurate overall. The problem is identifying the ones that are wrong. |
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The interesting bit is the information disadvantage.
If two people are stuck in the middle of nowhere and they only get results on the local coconut throwing contests, one works out that the home team wins 60% of the time and the other pays no attention at all to patterns. The guy can back the home team at evens and have an edge. It's unlikely his 60% assessment is a good one, but given the situation they're in, it's good enough. If the other guy then gets a copy of the league table, he can beat the first guy by only offering evens on select games. And so on, and so on. That doesn't mean there isn't a correct price though, the key is in a) making use of the publically available information to get the most accurate you possibly can and b) estimating the size of the damage someone with more information than you can do. (and b2) estimating if anyone's actually doing that) |
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Lori
That doesn't mean there isn't a correct price though, the key is in a) making use of the publically available information to get the most accurate you possibly can and b) estimating the size of the damage someone with more information than you can do. (and b2) estimating if anyone's actually doing that) I can agree with this statement except the use of the term"correct" price because you are saying what I have said several times. An opinion about price depends upon information, evaluation of that information and chance. Alter the information variable and you change your opinion of the likely outcome. In other words the so-called correct price alters because you are better informed and being better informed alters your perception of chance. For others, who do not have the information, their perception remains the same. So my position remains that, like beauty, price is the eye of the beholder. |
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If you have all the information, you have the correct price though.
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Lori
It's not possible to have "all" the information, is it, because an important percentage is unknowable. But, for the sake of argument, theoretically, even if you possessed "all" the information that is possible you would have to have no flaws in your calculation of odds algorithm in order to be able to arrive at the figure. Even then you would have to have some way of evaluating the influence of chance on the outcome which itself varies from moment to moment. Assuming all of this, a practical impossibility, you might have a figure which you might say is the "correct" price. In the real world you have opinion. |
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Investor
I think I covered your last post in my replies to Lori. Of course its possible to make money using opinion without any knowledge of the "correct" price. If we couldn't, the "greater fool" principle wouldn't apply, would it? Or are you telling me that the price of an artwork or a house say is dependent on the "correct" price? If so, how can it be determined without reference to the market i.e aggregated opinion? |
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The opposite end of the same bet can be value to both parties else we wouldnt have insurance policies.
Take two random people in the street with £5k in their pocket. In a game of equal chance the victor is allowed to walk away with £11k. I think by far the majority of people wouldn't take the chance. To them the loss of £5k would be bigger than the gain of £6k. I think even the majority of Betfair users would refuse a one off bet like that. If the bet was £5 to win £6 most people would take it so even though the chances of the event happening and the odds on offer the same the perceived value changes dramatically with the stake. There also can be instances where the upshot of winning say 95k is a lot greater than the downshot of losing £100k. |
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Now we have exchanges more people will take the £5k to win £6k because they believe they will be able to sell the bet on. The odds are the same as before but the value has changed.
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I agree entirely with that point Clydebank. Opposite sides of a single bet can measurably be value to differing parties but that is not what the discussion is over here.
It is whether a "correct" price exists for an individual event, whether or not is capable of being known either before the event or after it has concluded. |
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There are 2 correct prices in betting....the probability of the event happening and the price people are willing to pay.
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res tantum valet quantum vendi potest
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Believing there is a "correct" or "right" price for a single unique event is like having a belief in a deity. There is no way that it can be proven to exist, there is no evidence that can be used to prove its existence except as an aggregation of similar but ultimately separate discreet events which is not really proof anyway except for some common factor(s) that the sample might all possess.
It's usefulness as a concept is zero except if it gives comfort to someone to believe in its existence. |
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tobermory 14 Apr 11 23:50
If a team is playing well and looking dangerous you should be backing. But everyone else watching can see what you can, so the odds shorten, and maybe shorten too much. ____________________ I have to also agree ,it's a fact that odds shorten disproportionatly when there's an attack on goal /free kick outside the box ...it's like people over react too much. |
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everybody sees the same events unfolding, but not everybody interprets them the same, you have highlighted that coach, people over react to certain events and you can take advantage of that, providing you are a good enough judge...
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res tantum valet quantum vendi potest
I can't have that for a football match though. Just because the market might settle at 1.50 (what people are prepared to pay for it), doesn't necessarily mean that it is correct. Take the bizarre example of the toin-coss market that used to be (not sure if it still is) offered on cricket matches. Apparently on a number of occasions it settled to one-side of evens. The correct price WAS evens, no matter what somebody was prepared to pay. |
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I agree with coachbuster there, and have said so many times-
also clydebank at 11:24. |
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Yes the odds can drop a few points and maybe 2 to 5 point drop at a dangerous free kick, but thats the price you have to pay. if the free kick goes in your quids in. If not you take a small loss, that is if you come out the market.
In most matches there are key monents and periods of play. On the stakes I ues i am prepared to invest between £200 to £400 a match to put my self in good positions. for me it works, consistantly winning 20-30k a year. The car you see in my profile nissan 370z is a small present for myself paid for in full out of my winnings. Good luck |
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Chelseaheadhunter Joined: 14 Jun 00
Replies: 34 13 Apr 11 14:15 Im proof that you are wrong. I have now topped 100k profit on football in the last four years. It all comes down to how well you read the game, knowing when to be in the market and when not to. Maybe you need to rethink your tactics! =================================================================== K thought the above was "meaningless"  However, TIMING is very important to bets re FOOTBALL. If you lay a CS at the "right" time ......you are getting the "right" price. How people interpret a game and what MIGHT happen can only be a big asset when betting on FOOTBALL. CHH is obviously "good" at that and will generally be better at TIMING his moves in and out of markets ....so he makes a profit. The better you are at "guessing" what might happen, then you can do well. To state it is IMPOSSIBLE to PREDICT what might happen is what I call a "meaningless" statement! If you can improve making the right move at the right time, then your betting results improve. Nobody will get it "right" all the time, but I'm sure there are many on here that are good at making the right move at right time often enough to do well on here. The nearer you are to the time when a goal comes, the nearer you are to getting the "right" price for your lay or back in FOOTBALL IP . GL with TIMING of bets. If you make no effort to predict what might happen , then your betting |
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Apparently on a number of occasions it settled to one-side of evens. The correct price WAS evens
So people are prepared to buy below evens and you want to sell it to them @ evens because what you know is the correct price or of an idea of fairness  Good luck with that one  |
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Brendan,
Sorry it might have come across a bit confusing. Of course I would have happily laid at whatever sub-evens price they wanted. I'm just saying that the fact that the market settled at say 1.98, did not make that the right price. A right price did however exist, and it was quite clearly 2.00 |
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Sandown
Date Joined: 06 Dec 01 Add contact | Send message When: 15 Apr 11 11:37 Joined: Date Joined: 06 Dec 01 | Topic/replies: 712 | Blogger: Sandown's blog Believing there is a "correct" or "right" price for a single unique event is like having a belief in a deity. There is no way that it can be proven to exist, there is no evidence that can be used to prove its existence except as an aggregation of similar but ultimately separate discreet events which is not really proof anyway except for some common factor(s) that the sample might all possess. It's usefulness as a concept is zero except if it gives comfort to someone to believe in its existence. I think a better analogy than that is one between correct price and pi. It exists, even if we can never know its exact value, we can get closer and closer to it. Assuming a system of infinite complexity, nothing can ever be proven, without first making assumptions. "All models are wrong, but some are useful." |
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Totally disagree Investor about Pi.You will never know if you are close or not close with your price because you can't evaluate it as a single event whereas with Pi your degree of accuracy increases with every calculation. It's not remotely comparable.
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THE PRICE is never never never right while paying P C what going on
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disadvantage is there while i make good returns on other market but everytime trying to bet on football it becomes a loss like u all says football is hit and miss with broke even hard to win overound and what going on have to pay up to 25%due to the fact that oh forget it i just dont get it it betting at due to rip off price now betting on football is sadly elsewhere
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Must say for the general punter there is no better place to have a bet on football. unless the markets are offering 99% books i cant see how much fairer it can be.
The prices on the 3 options are there usually under 101%. Just a case of spotting the value  |
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Sandown
Date Joined: 06 Dec 01 Add contact | Send message When: 15 Apr 11 15:07 Joined: Date Joined: 06 Dec 01 | Topic/replies: 713 | Blogger: Sandown's blog Totally disagree Investor about Pi.You will never know if you are close or not close with your price because you can't evaluate it as a single event whereas with Pi your degree of accuracy increases with every calculation. It's not remotely comparable. Fair point, but I certainly can't justify how it can be less comparable than comparing it to a deity. I could say the same about your idea related to opinions. You can stick to your beliefs , and I see no reason to discard mine. I doubt we are going to convince each other otherwise [;)] |
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you seem to have the words "you" and "I" mixed up in the title.
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The pi thing is about a perfect description I think.
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^and demonstrably logically true
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Hello there Sandown
You stated "There can never, therefore, be a "right" price only an "opinion" of price and whether one profits or not will vary with experience and expertise, inside knowledge, and luck." Please can you clarify what you mean when you talk about profits varying with experience and expertise. what is this experience and expertise in relation to if there is no correct price? Are you saying that value still exists even if a correct price doesn't? Or are you saying there can be a correct opinion of price but not a correct price? Or are you saying something completely different. Am not criticising, just don't quite understand this part. Cheers. |