General Betting
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you cannot and will not make a profit on football betting in the long run..
you cannot and will not make a profit on football betting in the long run..
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U.A
I believe that people are using "correct" and "right" price in the sense that there is mathematical basis as there is with pure games of chance i.e 1/n. I disagree with this because in all matters where judgement has to be exercised over events which are singular and non-repeatable it is impossible to know even after the event whether one's price was correct or incorrect for that individual event. By aggregating large numbers of apparently similar events it is possible to verify whether one is ahead of the game or not and this is what I mean by experience and expertise. The more you have the more likely you are to finish ahead of the game which means of course that your judgement is better than the market over this specific sample of events. however, you cannot prove that you were right or wrong in any one instance only in aggregate. Howevr, it is not the fact that you can't tell whether you are right or wrong over the price in any one instance that leads me to my view that all we are concerned with is opinion. To believe that there is a "right" price if only we had all the information it was possible to have (not possible) and if only we had the most sophisticated algorithm to allocate factor weights, we could get to this price, suggests that we are able to put a value on the degree to which random factors play a part. I don't believe this is possible, although of course we can make a reasonable assumption (opinion) To believe in a "right" price is an act of faith. It is not necessary to have this belief in order to make a profit anymore than it is is necessary to have a right price for any asset. In the end it all comes down to relative opinions on the value inherent in any transaction. If you are proved to be profitable then all I would say is that you have better judgement than the people you were playing with. |
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If there is no right price, then judgement is nothing to do with it, as there's nothing to judge against. Every player would win or lose completely at random and completely irrelevant to the price they actually took.
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Sandown - A very good post above and you have chosen words carefully. The only point I would make is that to say -
"However, it is not the fact that you can't tell whether you are right or wrong over the price in any one instance that leads me to my view that all we are concerned with is opinion. " As I indicated above, TIMING is very important to being near to the "right" price or "wrong" price....... For example say you are watching a FOOTBALL match and believe a goal will be scored "soon" so you lay the CS currently existing.....and within 2 minutes a goal goes in. Surely you accept that ,in such circumstances , the price you have layed at is close to the "right" price for laying....althoughbeit not bang on time the goal goes in. The nearer you are to guessing when a goal goes in, then the closer you get to the "right" odds to lay. The "correct" lay price is say 8 seconds before you click the computer to lay......for Spanish match....The "wrong" price" is BACKING the CS existing 8 seconds before goal goes in...... You can tell you have been close to the "right" odds to lay IF THE GOAL COMES QUICKLY. |
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Hello there Sandown.
I understand your concept. I remember when Barca lost to Hercules they must have been about 50 to 1 to win. Afterwards people would go around saying that price was too high and it was great value but how do you know that it wasn't too low and that that was actually the 1 time in 75 that they would have won and it just happened to occur then. I do also see Lori's point which is what i have been struggling with a bit in that if there is no correct price how can someone be more accurate or better or have better expertese at it than others. You say that there is no right price but do you believe that there is an "accurate price-range" for a runner even though this price-range can never be mathematically or otherwise accurately defined. |
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Sandown, calling it an act of faith is a bit of a stretch I think. An act of faith is not necessarily based on any evidence at all.
Although you may not be able to know the correct price of an individual selection, you can know the prices in relation to each other, in a way that given this is true, this must also be true. I give you some information: The price of 2-0 Correct score is greater than the price of 1-0 correct score as given by the market. This means the price of 3-0 correct score must also be greater than 2-0. If this was not the case, some of the prices are wrong. This rests on assumptions of course, and there can be fi x ed matches where this falls apart. Collect a large amount of empirical data that either supports or undermines the idea and dozens of observations like it, and you can start to look into why this is the case. Do the math and create a model that accurately reflects the prices in relation to each other. You can measure how good your model is by starting out by making the assumption that the market is correct and build from there. I'd hardly call it an act of faith, more an act of pure reason. |
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Investor
I can agree with your last post. You can build a large sample from which you can draw statistical conclusions. I agree that through pure reason you can argue that If A beat B and B beats C then A should beat C and you can put some weight to it. All I am saying is that in any given single instance you can't be sure that your prices are correct, can you? And if each event is unique then aggregating apparently similar examples merely assumes that there are no major factors lurking which you have missed and which can account for any odd result. I am using the term "opinion" to mean "judgement and reason" which may use facts, statistics etc but is not a mathematically correct price and cannot be proven to be right - or wrong. Lori Your statement If there is no right price, then judgement is nothing to do with it, as there's nothing to judge against. Every player would win or lose completely at random and completely irrelevant to the price they actually took. doesn't follow at all. I have just sold a house and bought a house. The price paid and the price sold in each case is not judged against some non-existent so-called "correct" price;it is judged against a market price for similar properties. In that sense, there is a "right" price i.e. a price at which buyer and seller can agree to a deal. This has nothing to do with build prices but everything to do with my opinion of what is a good price for me to sell at and to buy at based on my judgement of the information available and my experience of buying and selling property. I see no difference between this transaction and buying selling sports prices. |
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DC Ironman
I agree with you and would argue that what you say about timing can be covered by my reference to "expertise." |
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I agree that through pure reason you can argue that If A beat B and B beats C then A should beat C and you can put some weight to it.
Look up non transitive games like rock, paper, scissors |
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UA
Sure there is a "price range" as you put it but there is always the problem that there is a piece of information which if we knew of its existence would completely change our opinion of what represents a potentially good price and a potentially bad price. A horse that hasn't eaten up on the day of the race may or may not be reflected in the betting. It might just not be up for it on the day. I myself perform on an exercise bike everyday and I am constantly amazed at how my performance varies from one day to the nest without there being any obvious reason for it. A difference incidentally that would more than explain the outcome of most races or one to one sports events. In this instance however I would be able to look at the record and as The investor says, be able to price up statistically what my price might be for beating my PB. However, with sports events every event is truly different because of the number of variables involved and taking a statistical approach assumes that we are comparing like with like , an assumption which by definition is not correct. You can not take say one teams record against another team over a long period and assume that the pattern you see really exists even though it may seem to exist. |
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Well in the end it comes down to this:
After 1000 Bets you calculate your Average Odds Taken and your strike Rate. If your Strike Rate against the average Odds shows a Profit Margin you continue betting in similar Events under same Circumstances. You are getting a wrong price Overall and the Rest doesnt really matter. When after bet 100000 everything evens out to breakeven you wait patiently for the "Thank you and kind regards" Card from London UK Betfair HQ,... because it turned out that you indeed got the right price over your 100000 Bets (or rspectively a favourable Error Margin of below 5% :)) and made a big pile of Commision for your favourite betting Site :) |
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it's fairly demonstrable that one price is more accurate than another. (for instance, which price more closely reflects man u's chance in the semi today, 2.12 or 100?)
I don't see how that can be true without there being a correct price, even if that price is infinitely approachable without being precisely definable. otherwise you're effectively agreeing that x is closer to z than y, but not agreeing that z exists. |
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So what's the winner between 2.12 and 2.1200000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001?
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There was a 1 at the end of that second figure.
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what's the last digit in pi?
same question, essentially. |
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otherwise you're effectively agreeing that x is closer to z than y, but not agreeing that z exists.
Yes that is true Viva. Be interesting to know how Sandown actually chooses his bets . Does he not consider the prices at all? The nearer you are to guessing when a goal goes in, then the closer you get to the "right" odds to lay. The "correct" lay price is say 8 seconds before you click the computer to lay......for Spanish match....The "wrong" price" is BACKING the CS existing 8 seconds before goal goes in...... You can tell you have been close to the "right" odds to lay IF THE GOAL COMES QUICKLY. I don't get that at all DFC . Wether a goal is scored shortly after you have backed or layed the correct score tells you nothing about wether the price was correct . |
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T - you say "I don't get that at all DFC . Wether a goal is scored shortly after you have backed or layed the correct score tells you nothing about wether the price was correct ."
================================================================= Say for example it is 0-0 with 5 mins to go in a match and you believe the away team odds are "value" AT THAT TIME TO BACK, as you consider that team can steal the game after all the efforts of home team are fading.....so you back 0-1 in 85h min and lay 0-0....... In 87th min it becomes 0-1..........so you have layed 0-0 at "right" time at odds nearest lowest point( must be the "right" odds to lay at ) .....and BACKED 0-1 at odds far higher than when it goes to 0-1....with little time left....so how better or "right" are such odds on 0-1 grabbed just before goal goes in? Trust you appreciate that TIMING of bets is closely linked to taking odds when you believe they are "value".... Whoever BACKED 0-0 just before goal went in got it "wrong" re TIMING.....whereas the layer layed at did so at the "right" odds as his guess on a goal coming "soon" transpired.... |
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Depends what the odds were as to wether it was value at that time.
If 0-0 was 2.0 that late in the game it would be terrible value to lay it (in a typical match) wether it finished 0-1 or not. |
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Take the REAL MADRID game ....where odds for 0-0 AT THE START were "value2 , as likely a TIGHT game 1st half....I backed it with small bet.
As i now believe the game will come to life as RM must go for win .....then now I have LAYED 0-0 profit off ...and backed 0-1 and 1-0 ......( in case i was "wrong" re it being 0-0 at HT ...I backed 2-0 and 9-2 at start of match...as can see those scores being hit later in match .....and covered with a bet on OVER 2.5 gs at start...... I now anticipate a goal or 2 being scored .......and laying 0-0 NOW is my time to do so .......if stays 0-0 til end ...I lose   |
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The 0-0 in MAINZ game yesterday was 1.66 when i layed it in 85th min.....and goal scored by home team ( in this instance ) in 87th min....that is close enough for me to be "value" .....but fact a goal came from them late in match ...is what i anticipated....and I expected the home team to score late...
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not 9-2 backed at start ...but 0-2...whooooppppppssssssssssssssssss
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wether an individual bet wins or not does not tell you it was value
If i'd backed Man City before the game today at Odds On it would have been an awful value bet regardless of it winning. |
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It is the TIMING of bet that is important to catching "value"........laying late in a match where you believe the goal will come late is catching the "right" odds to lay at.....and can only be proven to be "value" when the goal comes......IMO..... otherwise too academic if you have the "value" and don't win...
========================================================== My decision to LAY 0-0 at HT in REAL MADRID game was near the "right time" ....as a goal came within 6/7 mins......, therefore the odds I layed at were better than laying at start of match etc etc Unfortunately the sending off kinda ruins position a bit ...though still expect another goal and have layed profit off a bit on 0-1...... |
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layed 0-1 AGAIN as odds are better for laying ...and goal hopefully comes in next few mins.......
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If a team goes 1-0 up the chances of winning obviously go up. If no real probability exists, how can this be?
If a team is leading 4-0 in the 89the minute the chances of winning are obviously huge. If no real probability exists, how can this be? |
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The only way to win is betting at prices which are wrong. If anyone
disagrees with that, perhaps they would like bet without knowing the prices they are betting at. I would defy anyone to win without knowing those prices. |
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Majority of punters have the one bet either pre-off or in-play as they see
'perceived value' but they quickly lose 'true value' as the price heads north and don't go in again averaging. Building models around averaging and retaining value in your trading is the only way to maximise profits. Obviously its not for the faint-hearted given the randomness of football and you need to understand your markets or you will quickly go bust. |
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Hello there DFCIronman. You mentioned "It is the TIMING of bet that is important to catching "value"........laying late in a match where you believe the goal will come late is catching the "right" odds to lay at.....and can only be proven to be "value" when the goal comes......IMO..... otherwise too academic if you have the "value" and don't win..."
Isn't this just called gambling. Betting on something that you think will happen. Not sure how the value comes into it since all you are trying to do is predict what will happen in the future. If the draw price is 1.3 with 2 minutes left then surely it's just because over a large set of data when there is 2 minutes left the draw probability is such that the price should be 1.3. If i feel that there is going to be a goal in the very last minute that doesn't suddenly become value does it. I'm just having a bet on what i feel will happen at a price that represents the likelihood of it happening at that stage in the game. If i feel that a game is going to finish 0-0 then is it a value bet to just take the odds on offer just before kick-off? What if the odds are 7.6 pre kick-off is that value because i know they are just going to come in as the game progresses. Surely it's the prices not what you think will happen that are important. I must be getting it wrong because you also seem to be saying if you don't win then it's not value bet and if you do win then it is a value bet. |
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Apologies for not capitalising you full name at the beginning of my post DFCIRONMAN.
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U.A. - I usually check some stats on a match and arrive at a view on how the game is likely to go...."Something" might stand out to me as a likely scenario, so initially i usually place bets BEFORE match starts.
If i believe that a TIGHT game is likely , then backing 0-0 at start of match is what I view as "value". I might consider also that one team WILL play a game first half just to frustrate their opponents and make them run around in sun....... Their game plan being to go for win in last 15 minutes say.....so a 0-0 back at start is useful bet for me in such a game. As game progresses, i might see something that I believe WILL happen later in match.......eg one team dominating a match 1st a half and in early stages of 2nd half against opponents capable of coming to life later in match as their opponents tire etc..... For example the NAPOLI game yesterday was a game where most punters watching match might believe the home team was going to win.........but I saw their was a strong possibility their opponents would score on break etc etc ...and that is what happened. So I strongly disagree with you saying - "Surely it's the prices not what you think will happen that are important. I must be getting it wrong because you also seem to be saying if you don't win then it's not value bet and if you do win then it is a value bet." It is my view on a game that is IMPORTANT...both before the match and IP. However, it is whether you are "right" often enough that counts for me as to whether I make a profit or not. The odds are in my favour IF I MAKE RIGHT DECISIONS BEFORE GAME AND DURING IT. Of course you can lose and still consider yourself to have "value" in bet......but the bottom line is have you made a profit from your decisions or not. Yesterday I had got many decisions "right" on how games might go......and was about £119 up.....then I got it "wrong" re reading of RIVER PLATE game, as believed a goal would come....so lost about £70 on that 1 match ( it was only match I lost on yesterday). Won about £16 on last game ....so finished ahead. Had a goal come in RIVER PLATE game....then good profit would have been made......so I had the "value" .....and lost! Reason i was in PROFIT of about £68 yesterday though was me getting it "right" often enough in 11 out of 12 matches to enable a profit to be made.Make the "right" decisions .....at the right TIME often enough and a profit can be made. You might say I won because the odds I backed were "value".....but I would say that it is getting view "right" often enough on how a game goes that is the main thing....and the "value" then follows by winning and making profit. RACING about to start ....so GL with bets.... |
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Nobody knows what will happen, so 'thinking' a goal is coming
is nonsense. What isn't nonsense is the prices. |
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For example the NAPOLI game yesterday was a game where most punters watching match might believe the home team was going to win.........but I saw their was a strong possibility their opponents would score on break etc etc ...and that is what happened.
I thought you couldn't make it up, but then I realised you can !! |
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Im coming up to one year on here and im over 5000 uk in profit . 75% of that is football. But unlike horses where price is everything, i wouldn't know where to begin in pricing up a football match. So i must be a very good judge or i subconsciously find value .
But having a view pre off Can have a big negative impact when playing IP. For example man utd Will stuff City last saturday. IF i was playing IP without any feelings about the game, i would have traded for how i SAw the game (stonewall unders) Aftertimimg of course, but watching a game blind, even having to check on wikipedia to find out which team is playing in red on some mexicansk game for example. You act As you see the game , not what you expect to happen . Im rambling but i hope you get what im saying. Most of my profits are on obscure matches, where the people ARe not interested in. |
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Hello there DFCIRONMAN.
I suppose when i said "Surely it's the prices not what you think will happen that are important." I meant with regards to being profitable long-term rather than the mechanics of deciding if you want to have a bet or not. You mentioned "Reason i was in PROFIT of about £68 yesterday though was me getting it "right" often enough in 11 out of 12 matches to enable a profit to be made." I personally would disagree with you here and say that is meaningless without taking the prices into consideration as i could quite easily get 11 out of 12 1.05 shots correct and make a loss. Likewise i could just get 1 out of 12 bets correct and end up in profit for the day. I cetainly am not making any argument as to that fact that you are not or cannot be profitable with you approach as i would probably be wrong, i just think that you probably don't give yourself enough credit for being able to finding value bets based on your own instinct and without any in-depth statistical analysis. I'm sure it is a very rare and useful skill to have. It is your ability to find value bets that makes you profitable, you just haven't realised it. That's just my opinion anyway for what it's worth. |
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I stand by what I posted above -
"It is my view on a game that is IMPORTANT...both before the match and IP. However, it is whether you are "right" often enough that counts for me as to whether I make a profit or not. The odds are in my favour IF I MAKE RIGHT DECISIONS BEFORE GAME AND DURING IT." =========================================================== As for NAPOLI game......the stats indicated BEFORE match that UDINESE were on a good run .......and NAPOLI had been playing well , but they had been involved in European ties etc ....and the game was a big game for BOTH teams. So watching match NAPOLI had dominated play ....fact....created chances ...and missed em ...including penalty......It was just VERY VERY likely that away team would be fresher late in match and try to win then.....which is what happened. OK ...some people like K believe that anticipating a goal from a team is "nonsense"......and cannot be done ....or is worth attempting....they are blinkered by "prices"......K's post below typifies such belief kenilworth Joined: 04 Nov 05 Replies: 5064 18 Apr 11 15:33 Nobody knows what will happen, so 'thinking' a goal is coming is nonsense. What isn't nonsense is the prices. To state "What isn't nonsense is the prices" is just a bland meaningless statement ....and no good to man nor beast! |
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IQMC - As you say ....having a view on how a game might go "CAN" effect bets IP in a "negative" way........ However, it can also be a very POSITIVE way of effecting bets IP .....as the initial view can be "correct", based on stats plus whatever you have "seen" on a game reading between lines.....
You quoted MAN UTD v MAN CITY as a game where you believed MU would "stuff" MC......My view was the opposite.......I layed MAN UTD, but covered the lay with backs in HT/FT market. Watching game my view was that a goal would come ......so I layed 0-0....then layed again ( having initially had a small bet on 0-0 at START, as viewed match as a TIGHT game ...FA CUP etc ...and between 2 teams with capability to win match. As I stated above, many punters would believe NAPOLI were going to win against UDINESE, both before game and also watching it. I suspect many LOST because they never took all the factors into account on WATCHING match, as they ignored the STATS for away team....and did not take into account NAPOLI having had a very tough season. NAPOLI have probably peaked ....and likely to have a few set backs in run in...IMO. MAN CITY would view the game as their big chance to put one over on MU ....and MU had the mid-week game v CHELSEA taking up some valuable energy...which IMO would take its toll , and most likely in 2nd half. MC have the Italian coach ...so their mentality is absorb 1st half attacks ...then against a team like MU who just go forward most games, and were likely to do so 1st half especially.....the 2nd half was IMO when MC would try to win match. SCHOLES sending off obviously had major effect on outcome.....though I was happy laying MU the way I did, BEFORE game started. Many ways to skin that cat ......so having an opinion BEFORE a game is a PLUS for me........and generally it is also a benefit for me to remember what that opinion is DURING WATCHING a match, as it is so easy to get it WRONG WATCHING a match, as 1 team dominating possession and chances 1 half can mislead you to making bets that lose IF YOU IGNORE STATS AND ALSO THE NATURE OF HOW GAMES CAN QUICKLY TURN AROUND DUE TO A TEAM RUNNING OUT OF ENERGY LATE IN GAME. WD on winning your way though ...GL with bets. |
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DF, why don't you tell us what you are doing pre match rather than
3 days later ? |
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kenilworth - You very rarely expound opinions on matches PRE-MATCH.......compared to me....FACT!
I responded to IQMC post re his example of how having an opinion PRIOR to a game for him CAN lead to him making losing bets, compared to WATCHING a match then coming to an opinion....He/she used MAN UTD v MAN CITY as his example....and I used same game to demonstrate that, FOR ME, having that opinion BEFORE a game is the most important part FOR ME to making bets both BEFORE a game and DURING IT! This was just an point being made re the relevance of OPINION being important for me.......rather than you making spurious bland points re "prices" being "right" and "wrong" and generally going against the MARKET. Why don't you put up a thread on here and expound views on games PRIOR to them ? Though I must admit I suspect there will be little that I would sift out of YOUR OPINION, as I have no respect for your pompous posts.....with little substance to them ! |
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Glad to see you two still getting along..
IF you have a strong opinion it is hard to get away from . Being completely neutral is the Best way to Trade IP imo |