General Betting
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In The Trenches.........
In The Trenches.........
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What sort of sums did people put in? 500k is a lot of money. Does he still have the use of his legs?
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mansini, I hate no one, and dislike few. I disagree with some of
your posts, but hate ? Definitely not. |
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How time flies................
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cheers buzzer
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yeah apparently with the 500k investment money he told investors that his brother wouyld be responsible for placing the bets but to wait a few weeks as he had to LEARN BETFAIR FIRST
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he's probably pocketed most of the half million and went to live in the seychelles. u suckers.
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suckers? i take it you were a fan of his then?
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Er no mate where does it say that.
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ok cross wires mate
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Buzzer you legend
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a big massive con id say
total boloxxks |
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buzzer the legend
could you also bring back marias laying system up too   |
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and please please try get back ''CARSTENS SCREENSHOT THREAD'' best thread ever on betfair bar none
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I used to be a fan of Footsoldiers before I realised the importance of value.
I don't believe he was a conman, he had a very strong belief that he could pick winners without requiring value, and he had a lot of success. The beginning of this thread shows him making around 20k or so (from memory) in about 6 weeks, but he then stopped the thread as his father was taken ill. I think his downfall came from getting too greedy and believing he was infallible, not from deliberately trying to rip people off, but that doesn't make it any easier for the victims I know. |
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For anyone who's interested, Footsoldiers was laying anything he thought would lose regardless of it's price, for £150 a shot. His opinion on value was...
u get guys talking about value all the time....it bores me to death, it's like a disorder with them a cleaning disorder they can't bet unless they think they have this thing called value now if i turn over 30k a month a 1000 a day by not betting the value what are they going to say ??? Rate reply: | report block user Footsoldiers 13 Jan 08 10:35 Joined: 14 Jun 04 | Topic/replies: 2,378 | Blogger: Footsoldiers's blog u ask 100 guys from the soccer forum what the value is on the pompy match today, they'll all think they have the value you'll get 30 different answers.. they fight and scrimmage over a price on that match instead of looking and finding easier ways to make money without finding value.. Rate reply: | report block user Footsoldiers 13 Jan 08 10:38 Joined: 14 Jun 04 | Topic/replies: 2,378 | Blogger: Footsoldiers's blog I could potentially increase my bank in a month by 6 times it's original ammount, without betting value. it's gonna turn this theory about value on it's head and make people think differently and hopefully make them think about thier bets more.. Rate reply: | report block user Footsoldiers 13 Jan 08 10:41 Joined: 14 Jun 04 | Topic/replies: 2,378 | Blogger: Footsoldiers's blog Value was something invented by pro punters years ago who could only back horses and wanted a good price.. now u can lay anything you want value means jack shi t and i'm gonna prove it if a i can... His views on value are the total opposite of mine, how he pulled it off I don't know, but he did make money. I think it was more than a lucky streak, he has an ability to make money without seeking value that I wouldn't normally believe was possible. However, long term as far as we know he went bankrupt, so perhaps it was not just due to greed, but also a disregard for value catching up with him. I think it was a great thread though :) |
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If you're making money long-term, you're finding value whether you know it or not. If you're not making money long-term, you're either not finding value or you're not staking sensibly.
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Last post spot on. It's not even up for discussion.
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The only way to make money without value in the long run is a perfect Martingale staking system. And the latter will eventually fail.
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DB, what about the perfect ''Fibonacci'' staking ?
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1,2,3,5,8,13,21 etc is that the fibonacci plan
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0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, 377, 610, 987, 1597, 2584, 4181, 6765, 10946, 17711, 28657, 46368, 75025, 121393, 196418, 317811, ...etc
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Not heard of Fibonacci staking. I suppose there are other staking systems, which if perfect will eventually provide a profit. However, any sensible statistics prove that no staking system by itself is perfect.
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cpfc4me 21 Nov 12 05:01 Joined: 30 Mar 04 | Topic/replies: 447 | Blogger: cpfc4me's blog If you're making money long-term, you're finding value whether you know it or not. If you're not making money long-term, you're either not finding value or you're not staking sensibly. Rate reply: | report block user kenilworth 21 Nov 12 09:27 Joined: 04 Nov 05 | Topic/replies: 10,270 | Blogger: kenilworth's blog Last post spot on. It's not even up for discussion. Rate reply: | report block user You can be lucky even in the long term : a lottery winner that buys a ticket every week will never 'lose enough' to give it all back. Alternatively, you could be 'good enough' at betting to the point that you're getting 1.995 on evens shots on average, that will give you a decent chance of finishing ahead over tens of thousands of bets (the long run). In the real world there will always be long term winners who are just lucky (though admittedly this is the exception that proves the rule). |
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If you are profitable after tens of thousands of bets at 1.995, it is far more likely that the true price is 1.99 rather than evens. Luck runs out, although in the lottery winner example, their time may run out before their luck does! Of course it rather depends on the size of the win and the time remaining for the lucky winner, not that the lottery is for the sharp minds on here.
Speaking of which, is there really much point in a staking plan having a first bet of 0 as suggested by sweetchildofmine above? Anyway, unless your selections are value, no staking system can help you in the long run (90 year old lottery winners excluded). |
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You be surprised cpfc4me.
I did a simulation for 30,000 bets where someone does have an edge. He is getting evens on a 1.995 shot. I did it 50 times in excel betting £1 on each bet, and only 29 times did it end in profit. 442 -80 208 -78 -92 -68 194 234 -18 -50 16 -10 488 -20 194 108 454 70 250 -34 40 272 -112 -132 4 -396 -272 -158 130 -74 40 240 196 -372 40 36 -144 270 -28 268 -2 318 148 398 40 254 -294 -106 50 212 |
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Just received a text message from footsoldiers. He has kindly passed on a system for use at the Hippodrome tonight. This is for use on the roulette table and is known as "The Ice Man Method" (TIMM for short). I don't mind sharing, if we don't use massive steaks we should go unnoticed.
Wait for 4 REDS/ BLACKS, when this sequence occurs, bet £10 on the opposite colour. In the unlikely event the sequence becomes 5 REDS/ BLACKS, bet £20 on the opposite colour (the aim is always to win £10 so we cover previous losses with our stake). Stop at a winner or until you need the toilet. Not had a chance to run this through my Monte Carlo helix simulator yet but I can't see too many problems making a monkey tonight to cover the Spearmint Rhino expenses. good lcuk. |
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i was about to post ''ffs'' till i saw the author
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Investor: I did a simulation for 30,000 bets where someone does have an edge. He is getting evens on a 1.995 shot.
I did it 50 times in excel betting £1 on each bet, and only 29 times did it end in profit. I'm not surprised at those results Investor using a 0.25% edge. Betting at evens with no edge you would expect to end in profit around 25 times wouldn't you?. Just thinking out loud, but would a 0.25% edge give you an average of 31.25 times in profit, 0.5% edge 37.5 times in profit etc, but not till you achieve a 1% edge would you be in profit all 50 times? I've got a pretty sturdy quantifiable edge in what I do, but still my longest run with no profit was 10,000 bets, that said I did pay a lot of comm over that period. |
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TheInvestor2,
I presume you modelled it optimally then as with that edge over 30,000 bets, you'd have a 41.27% chance of coming out losing which would pretty much tie in with your simulation. |
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ttt
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any chance of you getting back ''carstens screen shot thread''
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This will be repeated one day by the smithy/sweetchildofmine/green army group.. is only a matter of time
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dont be silly
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and within 2 minutes here he is to defend them
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the other plonkers will be along shortly no doubt sweet, just as soon as they get your pm
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what made you so bitter hejik? seriously not being funny im bored with all the rubbish, but what made you self implode as you did to get banned then come back and threaten to let history repeat? (pulls up chair and taps forehead)
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i'm not hejik you moron
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behave yourself stalky or you're back to the naughty step
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yawn yawn
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