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Todays horses
Rudivale 255 wincanton @ 8.2------------------------------------------- won moon melody 305 southwell @ 24 Alicia 340 southwell @ 12.5 Golden Square 405 wincanton @ price too big so dismiss Classic clover 435 wincanton @ 5.3 Lady Malousa 505 southwell @ 15 Taboor 720 @ 8.0 Fantasy Princess 920 @ 11.0 7/8 today 15/16 after 2 days (93.75% strike rate) The winner was laid for less than 1% of bank, using the staking plan and still in profit over two days No where near as spectacular as TOTGA, however I don't have bank busting liabilities Small, steady growth, and seeking to keep the strike rate over 88% |
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something for you to browse, totga... laptop in bed sounds about right :)
http://site.forum.betfair.com/jive3/betex/ThreadsFrameset.jsp?forumID=32&forumName=General+Betting&threadID=1360419&tName=Maria+Staking+Plan&iMessageCount=151 |
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lol cheers John,
Bit gutted about my 2 x c/s lays losing today. Thanks for the link but reckon ill be reading it 2moz, got an early day at work 2moro! :-) |
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As of tomorrow, ill be staking to what Maria was staking too.
May adjust it eventually but this will give me a guideline on how good/bad the system is. Will be introducing a 0.2% liability for all bets placed over the odds of 11.0. Like all staking plans which are essentially mathematical formulas, The Maria staking plan can be broken down into rules. 1) - There are 3 distinct odds ranges to be aware of. The following is based on a starting bank of £3000 Prices below 3.5: lay to 1% of bank - backer's stake £30 (liability is always under £75 in this price range) Prices from 3.6 to 7.4: lay to 0.6% of bank - backer's stake £18 (liability is always between £46.80 - £115.20 in this price range) Prices from 7.5 to 11: lay to 0.4% of bank - backer's stake £12 (liability is always between £78 - £132 in this price range) Anything above 11 or 10/1 is left alone. 2) - If making profits, the stakes are increased on a daily basis in proportion to the betting bank on a daily basis. For instance, if after day 1 the betting bank is at £3300 then 1% would now be £33 rather than £30. 3) - If after a days betting the cumulative betting bank has decreased the stakes are left alone unless 35% of the highest level of the bank is lost, when the stakes are re-calculated based on the new "65%-sized bank" For example if your using £3000 as your starting betting bank, you would keep the same stakes used until your betting bank went below £1,950 when those backer's stakes would become £19.50, £11.70 and £7.80 until the bank gets back up to £3,000 again (or - even down to £1267.50 - a further 35% loss). The 35% drop is always worked out from the highest point of the bank. |
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http://www.expertbettingadvice.co.uk/forum/thread18432.html
Think this is what you are looking for TOTGA. |
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Perfect REM, couldnt find it anywhere.
I may also try and link the staking into football lays with outright and c/s lay bets. Will see how it goes and will choose my selections for tomorrow by lunch time 2moz! |
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Starting Bank of £3000
Staking: 1.01- 3.5: lay to 1% of bank - backer's stake £30 (max liability £75.00) 3.6 to 6.9: lay to 0.8% of bank - backer's stake £24 (max liability £141.60 ) 7.0 to 10.0: lay to 0.6% of bank - backer's stake £18 (max liability £162.00) 10.0- 18.0: lay to 0.4% of bank - backer's stake £12 (max liability £204.00) 18.1- 25.0: lay to 0.2% of bank - backer's stake £6 ( all stakes are increased/ decreased to reflect to the days prior results. ie- Day One, makes a profit of £300, new bank £3300, above odds will reflect 1%, 0.8% etc of new bank, (ie- £3300, 1% £33. Stakes above, 1%, 0.8% etc will be kept until the bank reaches £200, Stakes will then be adjust to read the above percentages on the 2k total. |
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Starting Bank of £3000
Staking: 1.01- 3.5: lay to 1% of bank - backer's stake £30 (max liability £75.00) 3.6 to 6.9: lay to 0.8% of bank - backer's stake £24 (max liability £141.60 ) 7.0 to 10.0: lay to 0.6% of bank - backer's stake £18 (max liability £162.00) 10.0- 18.0: lay to 0.4% of bank - backer's stake £12 (max liability £204.00) 18.1- 25.0: lay to 0.3% of bank - backer's stake £9 (max liability £216.00 all stakes are increased/ decreased to reflect to the days prior results. ie- Day One, makes a profit of £300, new bank £3300, above odds will reflect 1%, 0.8% etc of new bank, (ie- £3300, 1% £33. Stakes above, 1%, 0.8% etc will be kept until the bank reaches £200, Stakes will then be adjust to read the above percentages on the 2k total. |
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£150 Its Bertie @ 6.6
Carlisle 2.00pm |
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£150 Its Bertie @ 6.6
Carlisle 2.00pm |
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G'dayTOTGA, good start. But I thought you were going to adopt Maria's staking plan, weren't you?
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oops, sorry! didnt mean to type £150, dreadful mistake on the first bet!! lol
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Checkerboard @ 14.0
Carlisle 2.30pm |
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Nicky Tam @ 6.4
Carlisle 3.05pm |
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Piscean @ 7.0
Lingfield 3.20pm |
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:( booo.... unlucky totga
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it was always going to happen!!
Just dont want anymore!! |
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Some Touch @ 5.6
Carlisle 3.35pm |
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5f handicaps... not for me, thanks.
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Hi TOTGA ....
Are you selecting them based on place market odds in relation to win market ???? If so, should you not be delaying a decision to last few seconds before race???? |
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Hi DFC, dont look at the place market odds, i use some stats and ratings i have researched, havent done too bad but a bit gutted with the loser!!
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Fair enough ...just curious as FS I think used the place market odds as a guide to whether a lay was worth doing or not etc
As you are posting em well before off time , then there can be big moves in between that and off etc.....but as this is not how you are selecting em .....does not matter . GL with this one....I suspect a 7 yo wins..... |
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wd
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I had GLINGERBANK as possible nap today in comp......opted to go for another one .......was not clear on this race so decided to leave it out !
Seems to be a phase most of us go through ...selecting wrong one of two. |
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I'll leave you to concentrate on selections TOTGA...
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your last 2 succesful lays both touched 1.25 in running..ur close to the bone!!
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Sorry for not replying DFC, it shard to work and be on here at the same time!
Was a close race jsut though! Check out my next lay and let me know what you think? |
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Vintage @ 8.2
Lingfield 3.50pm |
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I know Kavvie, but they didnt win though!! :-)
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Appears to be a "good" lay in that it should not win IMO.....fav probably does...GL
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I fancy Vintage to place, but I don't do sprint h'caps, no bet races for me. gl.
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Market has it right at SP ...between top 3 and V is not one of em
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Vintage could have won that one if EA hadn't got him stuck in traffic..
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well I thought a 5 yo would win....so it did .......just ad-libbing I often select wrong one of 2....did it again :D
A close one there |
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Bougoure @ 6.0
Carlisle 4.05pm |
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If going was faster BOUGOURE would probably win....but going is not that so I agree it won't win.
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Have to shoot off now but these are my next 4 lays!
Charm School @ 2.7 Lingfield 4.20pm Freddie The Third @ 7.0 Carlisle 4.40pm War Of The Roses @ 7.6 Lingfield 4.55pm Liberation Spirit @ 10.0 Lingfield 5.25pm |
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Excellent work once again TOTGA.
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Fridays P@L below.
10/11 correct (Average Odds 7.37) +£68.80 Bank £3068.80 I will list todays selections in a bit, i know its after timing but they are all part of the system. |
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Ascot
1.10pm Spin Cycle 12.0 1.45pm Galeota 15.0 2.20pm Allied Powers 7.6 2.50pm Laahig 14.0 3.30pm Four Winds 8.2 4.05pm Siberian Tiger 19.0 4.40pm Lochstar 8.0 Musselburgh 2.10pm Kay Two 15.0 2.40pm Record Breaker 7.8 3.15pm Aegean Dancer 17.0 4.20pm Matraash 10.5 4.55pm Dispol Kylie 8.6 Chepstow 1.25pm Ice Tea 16.0 2.00pm Five Dream 9.6 2.35pm Crescent Island 2.88 3.05pm Irish Legend 8.6 4.15pm Tchico Polos 6.0 Hexham 2.15pm The Shy Man 4.0 2.45pm Primrose Time 10.0 3.20pm Something Gold 12.0 3.50pm Shankly Bond 5.5 4.25pm Youngstown 3.25 5.00pm Reasonably Sure 9.0 |