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"Why doesn't a system of laying the favourite in every race work?"
Odds, Odds, Odds and firkin Odds. |
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If you can't make a profit from laying every favourite, then backing them should be the choice.
Look at Adrian Masseys site and look at favourite stats at estimated Betfair odds and you'll soon give up laying favourites. And think about this, bookies don't just lay favourites. |
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It's odds. It's odds. Move on. Move on.
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Hi BTO
Haven't had chance to play them the last few days,but I've looked at the results and checked the market movements after racing has finished,and I have to agree with Escapee that I've noted a few horses shortening significantly and winning,though roughly I have the last 3 days as only slightly ahead at best. |
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I can't believe this thread has got over 400 replies.
PMSL You can't win backing favourites at Betfair prices. You can't win laying favourites at Betfair prices. The commision takes the profit margins Bit of a no brainer really |
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;)
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Yes, I did lay those winners, but on Oz races quite a few plunges have failed to land recently.
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I don't play Oz racing so that's where the discrepency in our figures lies.
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You can't win backing favourites at Betfair prices.
You can't win laying favourites at Betfair prices. Which Betfair prices? Early prices, late prices,in between prices, SP prices. Every one of the above is different, therefore at some stage there is profit to be had. Commission does not negate value, if you do your homework. |
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@BTO
Doesn't matter when you take the prices, 99% of punters on here will lose their cash laying every favourite |
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Hi gents! anyone know how betfair calculate the average odds match,
exe. 12.5+1.05 thanks in advance |
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Let it go,Artie...nothing to see here !
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Any updates from those testing this approach? Would be good to see someone other than BTO to make a profit to verify it.
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18 points profit today so far (best day yet).I lay to a fixed backers stake though,not fixed payout like BTO.Also,since switching to just playing from the live track shows,I've tinkered with the "tick" sizes as I wasn't getting many bets taken.
Since 14 Dec +40 points,but nearly half of this profit has come today. |
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Lots to see Tiger. Lots to learn from BTO !
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"......I lay to a fixed backers stake though,not fixed payout"
What's the difference ? E.G. Fixed Pay out of £12 = Lay £3 @ 5.0, Lay £4 @ 4.0 What would fixed backers stake be ? |
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Hi Escapee,
In your example I'd be laying £3 @ 5.0,£3 @ 4.0. i.e £3 every bet,regardless of odds |
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well done tiger
Are you sticking to it long term ? |
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Thanks Tame
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Hi Zealot
To be honest I haven't really stuck to BTO's method exactly.I started working from the live show before he decided to switch (still don't know why he did that after 2 years of doing it his way)(or if he still is ?) As I stated earlier,I stake differently,and also set the ticks differently.So although my method and BTO's are very similar,our results may differ. Overall,I have 40 points to play with now,after a month. I'll keep plodding on for now. Incidentally,despite laying 3 winners today in 7 races,I didn't have a losing race,which may go some way to backing up BTO's strategy. |
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thanks - good luck :D
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whats your staking method - 1% of bank ?
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That's a great set of results TTT - hpe it keeps up for you. Keep us informed.
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I cant believe this threads still going. 1 Quetion and so many answers.
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To be honest I haven't really stuck to BTO's method exactly.
That's fine, it needs to be tailored to suit your needs as long as the main principles are adhered to. I was still left wondering how you only got matched on one bet on one horse, yet laying 20% above SP. I have to add that I have tweaked my approach again somewhat, but only because I've been doing it a long time and have a lot of data. I can now know the true odds of a firmer or drifter. Therefore, I have a back price and a lay price in mind for either drifters or firmers, all I have to know is what it opens up at on track. Example: horse opens up at $3.00 If it drifts, the back price might be $5.00 and lay price $4.00 If it firms, the back price might be $3.00 and lay price might be $2.60. So the bookies markets I reprice based on past data and fluctuations. But this is a minefield for newcomers, I have various alerts in place, and it's working quite well. I started working from the live show before he decided to switch (still don't know why he did that after 2 years of doing it his way)(or if he still is ?) Yes still using Live Shows, it is only because the profit is better. The previous method of using early prices also works, but live shows increases profit. |
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Hi everyone,
I can report after on and off testing of the system that it recorded around a 10% profit for greyhounds since December and over 10% on horseracing. My records are a bit erratic and hard to calculate with payout staking, etc. But I know that it grinds away with ups and downs as BTO states. The problem for me is that I was playing wih small stakes and got bored after awhile. This highlights another thing about this system...it takes patience and a large bank to keep at it. I am going to combine this system with letting the race go in play for 1 sec per furlong (or 200m in AUS) and try and keep better records. I hope to have some stats in a month for you all. |
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Example: horse opens up at $3.00
If it drifts, the back price might be $5.00 and lay price $4.00 If it firms, the back price might be $3.00 and lay price might be $2.60 What if horse opens at 3.0,drifts to 4.0,before steaming to 2.6 ? Also,if it opens at 3.0,you don't know if it's going to steam to 2.6,so you wouldn't be able to back at 3.0,you would be too late. It's a very good system,but you would need a huge dollop of hindsight to take advantage. |
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That's where the plotting of trends takes over, while you can't predict the market, statistics over a very large sample will tell you x% of horses will firm, x% will drift then firm, x% will drift, x% will firm then drift.
You only have to have the percentages on your side. I can tell you that there is a huge bias of drift then firm, to firm then drift. I get it right 85% of the time. |
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Of course the assessed price takes into account the 15% of the time I get it wrong. There are some pretty clear signals that repeat over and over, but unfortunately it doesn't transpose across the Betfair price movements the same.
I can get it right, but the Betfair price moves in the opposite direction for various reasons. I just have to take what I believe to be value longterm. |
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Schnapper, those results tally closely with my longterm results.
You are spot on, it takes patience and correct staking. Very easy to lose the faith when a week of races go against you. |
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Well,that's yesterdays profits gone !
120 Oracle 5/2 into 15/8 wins 150 Boogie 11/4 into 9/4 wins 200 Musashi 7/1 into 9/2 wins 230 Noble 6/4 into Evens wins 250 Camerooney 11/2 into 9/2 wins 300 Formidable 7/1 into 5/1 wins 320 Transmission 4/1 into 3/1 wins |
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Tame glad i havent tried the new method
seems like hard work gl |
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Hi Moon,
You started this off by asking if BTO was doing the in-running strategy :) How's that going by the way ? Some respite there with Restless Genius 7's into 4's lost |
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Colourful Move 13/2 into 7/2 lost :)
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Tame its going well and has been for a while.
I have changed it slightly and would tell you what i do but dont wont to lose my edge. Again it doesnt work every day but it does build up. I might consider contacting you privately if it can b arranged as you ave shown a good interst in this thread and you could see if it works for you gl |
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By the way i didnt lay restless in that race but something else that lost
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I don't think the amounts I stake would have any effect on your edge.I'm pretty sure I know how BTO used to do it,but if you wish to divulge your methods (in strictest confidence) I'll happily post my email.
I'll understand if you decide not to :) |