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Hello artie,
You seem to have a healthy interest in this thread. Do you have anything to bring to the table ? |
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lol
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Dolans Bay to place at 3.4 in 2-50 from me.
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Hello Tiger.Unfortunately I have nothing to contribute, but I am interested in anything BTO says and there are several questions I would like to ask him re . prices etc. if I could contact him privately, as he seems to have a collection of very useful data.
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For artie, ;)
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so why doesnt laying every favourite work? I cant read all this stuff. Surely 3 or 4 words can answer the question?
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Because eventually you will lose?
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Laying every favourite can work, if you spend the time and the effort filtering and filtering your selection criteria. Obviously these pearls of wisdom don't contribute much to this thread or current discussion, I just wanted state that it certainly is possible to flat stake lay (or lay to a set liability) and show consistent profits. The information is available in the public domain to everyone.
This thread has been a fine read and I shall be following it with interest. |
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Guesser 01 Jan 23:47
so why doesnt laying every favourite work? I cant read all this stuff. Surely 3 or 4 words can answer the question? Well done Guesser you've discovered why only very few people can make it work on here. |
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"Why doesn't a system of laying the favourite in every race work?"
Mmmmm that's a tricky one. |
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Olympic22 10 Dec 20:10
Not just that simple, believe me. Commission and higher prices play a bigger part in this than you would imagine. |
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Cliftonhill Albion 10 Dec 20:57
2nd poster is correct. Neither the backer nor the layer wins due to commission. The answers were given on the first page. It's not that can't, you're just too lazy. |
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i have read little of this , but the questiojn is a good one needs answering , so the bets are at 100% or near it in the betfair betting so it would be near impossible to win not less you laid them loof at better prcing , so the trick is to get your ass in gear and fillter out the fav that you think will win then leave them alone and lay rest and you would win for sure,
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33% favs win thats 33% that trade shorter.
70% favs place which usually means trade shorter so why not back to lay fav,get the maths right and you may be on a winner. |
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mepoor is certainly on the right tracks ;)
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Hint: If the last traded price is close to breakeven before commission is paid, then surely any movement towards or away from that price is profit or loss even in a 100% market.
Even if the market was 100% eight hours before the race, prices within the market are never stagnant. Prices move on every single runner to some degree. Therefore, at some stage a runner is value, or not value, even if in the end it is breakeven. The trick is not in pricing it right, although it would be a huge help. The trick is knowing the signals that flag a horse will firm or drift. There are clear indicators close to the off, and it has nothing to do with weight of money or other flawed logic. It was around well before betting exchanges were even thought of. Betting exchanges are simply an exploded overview of bookmaker versus punter plus overround. The very best ratings are completely free, they just require time and effort to read them and interpret them. The ability to read signals and get it right more often than not, is a sure way to profit. Knowing how to read the signals, how to interpret them, what price bands are best etc is an art. Bookmaker don't just ban winning punters, they ban punters who bet in a certain way, because they know they will lose to them longterm. Ask any bookie what type of winning punter they ban, and there's your answer. Here endeth the lesson. ;) |
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it has nothing to do with the weight of money ?
clear indicators -surely not ? |
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Hi Brian,
Quick clarification... Weight of money is a bogus guide, any trader trying it will get caught out, because there are traders here, not just backers and layers. Therefore false money is put out with no intention of being matched. Personally, I've seen hundreds of cases of phantom money being used to force a market in a direction, it disappears and the horse drops 20 ticks in price, or the reverse. It would be a different scenario altogether if traders were not using exchanges. There are and have always been clearer indications prior to betting exchanges. That's not to say that every indication will be accurate, but certainly they are more accurate than not. Of course betting exchanges may have different prices due to some other outside knowledge, but in the main, enough times the "flag" or alert is more spot on than not. I could fill an entire forum on this topic, but I won't. There are so many facets to it, it is a complex amalgamation of bookie versus punter, a game of cat and mouse, often the very large punters will not move in on a horse as the bookmakers offer odds, they will wait until the bookie rolls out a turn or two and then slam him to well below the original opening price. Other times they will just pound the price straight away. I've made almost a career of analysing bookmakers habits and price trends. |
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Since Dec 15th, laying 10 ticks below openers,and then some, -£3.52 to £2 stakes.No different to how I played them before really.
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Is that -£3.52 net of commission TameTheTiger ?
quite a surprising result, I expected it to make a small profit. Over how many races since the 15th Dec ? Maybe not enough as variance is a b1tch |
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Includes commission and is over 142 races
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hows about the block 6 staking plan , tame
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Tame 2 pound flat stakes or liability 2 pound or payout 2 pound?
If it's flat stakes I see your problem. |
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ttt
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Backing the favourite to a £1 stake during Dec2009 compared to other tipsters.
-£0...The Favourite BSP -19...The Favourite BSP - 5% -54...The Favourite SP -141...Daily Mail SP -54...Rp Ratings SP -76...Telegraph Sp -84...The Guardian SP -78...The Times SP -42...The Star SP -76...The Express SP -75...Daily Mirror SP -73...Postdata SP |
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£2 flat stakes,each increment.
Since playing them solely from the live track show,very few are matched more than once. I guess what you will say is getting the short ones beat is more profitable(higher backers stake on these). Not sure if that would have been the case or not.I've noticed a few win at 6/1,so they would hurt me less I suppose. |
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Tame,
No not exactly. I stay away from any horse which opens $3.00 or shorter on track. But laying to payout a fixed amount. Otherwise one 20/1 shot will kill all previous gains on horses under 10/1 I think this is the problem. Pretty much my band of profit is horses between $3.00 and $10.00 opening show. If you got top fluctuation about all firmers you make around 110% ROI, so you need to get below top fluctuation minus 15% (including commission). Ten ticks is about right, anything under ten ticks should see profit if you lay to payout the same on every horse rather than flat stakes. |
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Bookies ban punters who get the jump on them and jump on track firmers before they've adjusted the odds. This is because they lose to them. They lose 10% exactly. But more concerning is not the odds, it's the amounts, as favoured firmers win as much as 48% of the time.
No bookie can afford to give away 10%, 48% of the time when his worst liability is on that horse. Bookies love punters who back drifters at top fluctuation, they will even let you on, right up to the off. That speaks volumes. "We" are in a far better position to control our liabilities and selectively lay amounts and horses, but we don't have the cushion of a juicy overround to buffer the hits. Which is precisely why we need ten ticks below top fluctuation, the more the better. |
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Go on artie - spit it out :D
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An enjoyable read this.
Tightfisted - how many races are you above figs for Dec over? |
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Fav won 203 winners from 580 races in Dec according to RP figures. Check Templegate's performance compared to the earlier figures early in the thread.
203-580 -53.63 The Favourite 121-505 -141.32 Daily Mail 136-521 -53.95 Rp Ratings 139-494 -75.57 Telegraph 124-502 -84.33 The Guardian 124-496 -77.96 The Times 147-540 -41.88 The Star 132-537 -75.90 The Express 140-540 -74.50 Daily Mirror 124-553 -72.90 Postdata 159-537 -19.49 The Sun Templegate 102-555 -78.04 Top Course Trainer |
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Tame,
How you doing, I've had a good few days. |
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..... I've had a good few days.
Surprised !? are you sure about a good day Yesterday ? Yesterday there were 5 winners that firmed More than 13 Clicks, or More than 20% from their price 8 minutes prior to the off. How did you avoid laying them ? |
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Favs are very subjective. Whose favourite . The Post, The Sun , The Mirror , The Beano . The course ..... when any punter places a bet to win. The guy or girl is placing a bet on the horse who IS their favourite to win .Its all opinions .
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BTO
I have not contributed to this thread before but have been an avid reader since I stumbled across it when bored at Christmas. I have tried it at three meetings and done well so far although I realise that is a very small test, but it's nice to get off to a good start all the same. I am making the liability the same (in my case £12) for each price I lay in the set of ten ticks lower. ii.e. laying at 5.00 = £3 lay and laying at 4.00 = £4 lay. |
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Re the above am I doing it right please.
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no - you do it to PAYOUT the same on each price
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