General Betting
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The Martingale system
The Martingale system
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Replies: 646
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So did you win some money on Knockcroghery then Lex?
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thing is lex you could get 35 losing favs in a row, but number 36 has as much chance of winning/losing as number 1
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Going back to the casino analogy, I used to do the reverse of Martingale Red/Black so a red comes in I put £10 on red if it follows up I put £15 on then increase by £5 everytime. if it did not then I would go back to the £10. I would just play with £100 got some good wins but overall it cannot be done.
I still suggest that you are more likely to win or stay in the game longer if you increase after a winner rather than a loser. |
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Most casinos have a maximum allowable bet. If you keep repeating this strategy, eventually you will hit a run of bad luck. The requirement to double your bet each time means that you will eventually hit the table maximum. If you lose this bet then you will be unable to continue.
Nobody has an infinite amount of money. The record for the largest consecutive number of spins on one colour occurred in Monte Carlo where black fell 26 times in a row. If you had started by betting $1 on the first spin you would have needed to bet $33,554,432 to cover your losses, which is hardly within the scope of the average player. |
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And $33,554,432 would've won you $1!
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So whats the most alternates (e.g. red/black/red/black/red/black etc.)
that have appeared in a row???    |
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^^^
dont do it |
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Under my system the 26 blacks ina row would have won you £1615.00. I'm not saying my system works none do at the casino but it is better than the Martingale.
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The house has a 2.7% advantage . If you have 20 billion pound on yer - stay there long enough and you will lose the lot... QED .
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Is there such a thing as a profitable system on roulette?
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be the bank
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Haha I thought so!
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Trouble with these forums and its always been the same, you go round and round in flipping circles because you don't read what is written.
1. Martingale does not work on fixed odds games eg in the casino. 2. What I'm saying is use it on games where the bookmaker is involved because it is a completely different animal altogether. Martingale does work in these circumstances as I've shown you. It does not involve doubling up - you use the average divisor based odds given or if you want use the odds as the divisor. This is NOT chasing but using the price to determine the stake which is spread over the sequence. Its what the flipping bookmaker does to balance his book! 3. In these bookmaker games the gamblers fallacy is true - you can expect a winner after x losers and the next race does not have the same chance as any of the others in that sequence because its not fixed odds like roulette. The rules of probability do not apply where the market price is not fixed. 4. OK ?  |
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cant agree with 3...a horse running in race ten, doesnt have more or less chance, just because of whats gone before in the previous nine races
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It is extremely unlikely to get more than 7 UK consecutive winning favourites across the card, and there has never been 10. So it is also extremely unlikely to get 7 UK favs in an 10 races across the card. Watch and wait while your betting through the day and use this for laying. Laying 4 favs wont break the bank.
The longest losing run of favs is 43 (top2rated confirmed this) But if you get 8 losing UK favs across the card then starting backing them. If you are cautious you can wait for 10 but you rarely get 10. There are many 'systems' like this that really do work, its all done to knowing your stats, but these two will give plenty for forumites to argue over.  |
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OK, a horse which is fav running is race 10 after 9 conseq. favs across the UK card have won - it will lose.
Look, have you ever wondered why the non handicap races are in the first part of the day and the favs come in? It's for the bookies to get them out of the way for the rest of the day's book!  |
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I think sheppy is a wind up merchant .
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Hi Lex! I really enjoy reading your posts and I really wish you all the luck in the world!
However, this is the problem I've got with your system... You will win and win and win loads of times, every day, every week, BUT one day, it will go totally pear-shaped and it will wipe out all your winnings! |
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ZEALOT - I do like to have a laugh but I definitely don't try and wind people up to get them mad. It's all banter with me! I get off on it!
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The thing about that system lex is that you would have to sit watching racing all day and what about joint favs?
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after a run of 10 losing favs the odds on the 11 th can be affected by bookies playing up their winnings the same as they would be shorter if ten favs won and the books would shorten the 11 th as they would know the mugs would pile on regardless with their winnings
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Donny is right, sheppy is wrong and steamship needs to re read my post.
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just because something has not happened before, doesnt mean that it wont ever happen.
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Favourites for all Races 1991 - 2010
Sequences of Consecutive Winners Favourite 2nd Favourite 3rd Favourite 1 Winner 21243 16142 12037 2 Winners 7255 3300 1657 3 Winners 2547 675 226 4 Winners 889 120 22 5 Winners 305 21 7 6 Winners 108 10 0 7 Winners 47 2 0 8 Winners 11 0 0 9 Winners 4 0 0 10 Winners 1 0 0 11 Winners 0 0 0 12 Winners 0 0 0 13 Winners 0 0 0 14 Winners 0 0 0 15 Winners 0 0 0 16 Winners 0 0 0 17 Winners 0 0 0 18 Winners 0 0 0 19+ Winners 0 0 0 |
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Favourites for all Flat Races 1991 - 2010
Sequences of Consecutive Winners Favourite 2nd Favourite 3rd Favourite 1 Winner 12606 9366 6931 2 Winners 4132 1853 954 3 Winners 1342 345 119 4 Winners 445 81 16 5 Winners 151 15 7 6 Winners 46 3 0 7 Winners 21 1 0 8 Winners 4 0 0 9 Winners 0 0 0 10 Winners 2 0 0 11 Winners 0 0 0 12 Winners 0 0 0 13 Winners 0 0 0 14 Winners 0 0 0 15 Winners 0 0 0 16 Winners 0 0 0 17 Winners 0 0 0 18 Winners 0 0 0 19+ Winners 0 0 0 |
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Favourites for all National Hunt Races 1991 - 2010
Sequences of Consecutive Winners Favourite 2nd Favourite 3rd Favourite 1 Winner 8600 6842 5072 2 Winners 3203 1406 720 3 Winners 1159 304 93 4 Winners 448 55 14 5 Winners 165 13 2 6 Winners 56 6 0 7 Winners 21 1 0 8 Winners 6 0 0 9 Winners 3 0 0 10 Winners 0 0 0 11 Winners 2 0 0 12 Winners 0 0 0 13 Winners 0 0 0 14 Winners 0 0 0 15 Winners 0 0 0 16 Winners 0 0 0 17 Winners 0 0 0 18 Winners 0 0 0 19+ Winners 0 0 0 |
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Thanks for sharing that with us Ironman, it was really interesting! That must be some database you've got access to!
So it looks like there's never been 12 winning favourites in a row? Now, without thinking it'd be tempting to jump in and start martingaling in some way. BUT... I believe that one day you'll get caught out and it'll be difficult trying to recover. |
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S123 - http://adrianmassey.no-ip.org/web1/........STATS can be obtained from this link.
No idea whether 12 winning favs in a row has occurred........Not something I have wasted time to check out . Generally this link http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_%28betting_system%29 sets out information on TMS. Generally you are far better developing value betting methods than wasting time on this RUSSIAN ROULETTE method called TMS ! Once I was in a casino about 20 years ago......and only had about £40 in pocket. I decided to back RED until a winner came....BUT WAS NOT DOUBLING UP AFTER A LOSER! After about 30 mins ....a run of 13 BLACKS in a row occurred. I still had a few quid left , so changed tables and opted to back BLACK. I managed to pull back most of the £30 roughly lost on RED losses...................then a run of 11 REDS in a row followed by a zero occurred! Some people will say that it was just "unlucky" that night re such bad runs occurring.....but in a way I was LUCKY in that it just educated me cheaply re consecutive losing runs. If you have no edge the BLACK SWAN run will get you ! AS you say ..."without thinking" you are tempted to "jump in and start martingaling in some way".....I STRONGLY SUGGEST YOU START THINKING NOW AND STOP ANY SUCH PURSUANCE OF TMS. |
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^Indeed, how can a result that was random, have any effect on a future event that is equally random?
Nevertheless, the professors always seem to cloud the blindingly obvious, and baffle themselves with more and more complicated bullshine. But bullshine is bullshine, no matter how they manage to dress it up. |
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is Lex saying laying horse favourites and martingaling losses is a genuine winning system here?
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I went to a casino in Dundee sometime between 1993 and 1997 after being pestered by mu uni mates. It was near Christmas and I didn't have much dough in the bank. I took £100 out of the hole in the wall and off we went and my intentions were not to have a bet, just some drinks and watch the action on the tables. Finally I relented and placed a bet...it won so I walked away and waited a bit. I then went back to the tables for another bet which lost so I doubled up next time. I martingaled my way to a fairly decent chunk of money and at one point I even gave £100 to one of my mates who had been wiped out. Shortly after midnight I counted up my chips...I had £900 exactly and told my mates I was stopping at a grand and went back to the gaming floor. Doing exactly what I'd been doing all night I lost the whole £900 plus another £100 I tapped out from the cash machine. Huge downer. The only thing that saved the night was getting off with some bird and smashing her back doors in at her flat.
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/\
Charming "Mills & Boon" ending to the tale.  |
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I fixed her oven for her while I was there too (can't remember what was wrong though). I do remember she put the music on at quite a volume for a block of flats...I found out why when we got busy...holy christ what a screamer. |
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she was actually a he, and you got f**k*d by Martin Dale twice more that night.
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Hahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!
Now you know why she was called Martina! |
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8 failing favs, you know what to do
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6 losers but at big prices on the 14th (6 loss) we get a winner. a bit squeeky bum but not a deal breaker considering the very big priced divisors of most of them.
Now watch the favs role in. I hope. |
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and then 3 in a row. funny how it straightens it self out innit. but then like I said, it's not roulette
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nah its more like russian roulette
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