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Because laying the draw and waiting for a gole dont work when their is 3 consecutive 0-0 draws like wot their was recently!
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i must have been lucky enough to miss them m8,but i have layed 5 horses on the trot in the past and managed to recover so more than happy to lay draws at 3.5ish.
its all about how you handle the losing run |
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The point of this thread is about avoiding the losing run.
Slicer claims that a certain bet combination can do this. While I understand the maths precisely I have yet to run a simulation that finds one. It is an exercise in logic and recognising patterns. I've found a couple of patterns which would make a long term profit with the hits from losing runs seeming absorbable for a while, but that's not the point. If you think you can absorb losing runs you don't understand probability. I suppose that if anyone finds such a secret system they may shout eureka, but they won't let on. The bottom line is that it may all be an almighty wind up. |
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Yeah, why do you all indulge this Slicer bloke by addressing him as Dr? And isn't everyone just totally sick of his "sounds like" English spelling?
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Is that what they call **phoneaphobia?
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Sadly the good Dr has bailed out of any further Correct Scores posts but, undaunted, we press on with a meeting to the discussion group tonight at 8pm. Hopefully see you there.
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Prophets!
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I sussed it out last night, if its what i think it is.
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This may not be relevent to the post, but i have noticed on a few games this week. It has been possible to back / lay on 2 different markets to lock in a small profit.
prior to kick off example = Back 0-0 @13.5 Lay 'No goal' in either 1) Next goal market or 2) first goal odds market Seen it about 5 mins before kick off in Liverpool v spurs last night.... only small profit though, but profit is prophet good luck all |
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*the lay at less odds, think it was 12.5 or 13
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Do tell. :)
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This has been an interesting exercise requiring the investigation of about a million combinations. (and that's having excluded the daft bets involving who scored first, corners, red cards, ...).
Many combinations won't yield a profit. Some do sometimes but may or may not be reliable for long term returns. There are a few which have always shown a profit both in simulation and the real thing. As an aside, there are reasons that the simulations don't match what actually happens. There is punter behaviour and it seems quite predictable and may be useful in yielding up betting opportunities. If you know what happens at certain points in the match you can aim to be the right side of the money. So there's a golden goose and maybe a few silver ones too. As I've mentioned before, I have enough experience of gamblers to know that having a system is rarely enough. The compulsion is unlikely to be served by something that requires some careful calculations, attention to what is happening and relatively small returns for quite large outlays. Somebody close to me often says, "but red wine is supposed to be good for you." Not at three bottles a night it isn't. Similarly, the odd flutter is harmless, but the kind of obsession I see on some threads and the email slicer reported elsewhere suggests that it isn't a healthy obsession. If you still want to find it you'll need a spreadsheet and the ability to program it (formulae aren't sufficient). Copious notes of what you are doing and a rainforest of paper to record it and some good maths ability. My maths has been stretched and I sometimes teach it. Have fun. |
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Interesting Mr Whelk and I'm glad you've achieved due reward for such hard graft invested.
I'm unclear, though, on whether you feel you've found Slicer's Bet (3 Bets, 2 Pre-Ko, 1 in running that sometimes isn't needed etc) or some new angle to the CS market? |
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My feeling is that slicer has been careful not to tell the entire story and who can blame him? There are a few possible candidates for his system.
Looking at tonight's Benfica match and you can observe punter behaviour and the chance to clinch a profit. I think, in a sense, that this will always be your more productive approach. What has happened up to HT? What are the punters doing now? People want to give you their money ... |
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i thought i found a very straight forward system that requires 2 pre KO bets and one in running, obv not Slicers though as the third is required every game. (or this one the strasbourg game tomorrow looks nailed on for a decent profit)
the problem is that even though in most cases youd be looking at about a 6% win after comms and charges, i could see a situation where the market wouldnt move in your favor, nothing is 100%, itd take a total freak to happen but it could happen |
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Clacher,
Interesting...are the markets the same as Slicer's or different? |
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ok lay 0-0 ht market and back 0-0 both bets pre match,stake so profit taken if a 1st half goal,if 0-0 at h/t trade out on the 0-0 too easy or just daft
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dont think its that easy bud , you will be in the red at ht
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only if it is 0-0
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If only it were that straightforward but you would need to be exposed for around 15 minutes of the 2nd half to lay off 0-0 an recoup losses.
So either you don't do that and use some other method to get the cover or you do lay off after 15 mins but have some method of responding in the event of a goal. According to past Slicer comments the method is quite simple but it seems to be defying analysis at the moment. |
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Only me and slicer know the secret ;)
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In your dreams Catt- in your dreams!
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Ive actually got a pretty good idea Dr Slicer
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How was your weekend Dr?
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Caldy- if you sussed it- good luck to you.
I hope you all filled your boots on the generous Single Correct Score In Running Lay odds in the Kaiserslauten game. Christmas arrived early dunker! |
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Very nice Mr Blues, thank you. Hope you enjoyed yours too!
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It was very good thank you, the in-laws came to visit and I had a relatively quiet weekend on the prophet hunting front. The final on sunday was a little bit of a waste of a lie-in and now the tennis season is all but over :(. Back to just football for a month I guess.
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I could never win on tennis apart from my magnificent Lifetime Laying System on Tiger Tim.
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ghall that approach would work in select matches, given you can often trade the 0-0 at around 4.2 at half time....possible to eke out a small profit, of course if a 1st half goal is scored it takes away all the hurried half time maths
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another method is.....some matches are extremely volatile during the first ten minutes market wise...ive watched the kick off 0-0 contract from ie 17.0 to 10.5ish after ten minutes...so a cover bet of 1-10 minutes for first goal, to go alongside your 0-0 back with a lay off within ten minutes.....ouch my heads hurting, is it really worth it? you bet it is :)
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The first problem is to find matches where there are decent odds and liquidity. Being stuck in some unloved market watching the tumbleweed is a sure fire losing strategy.
My investigations continue beyond the original problem. I find the match threads very informative of how people think and respond. I find graphical representations useful but you have to read them carefully. I think you have to find your own holy grails and exploit them rather than just looking for someone else's. If it's there and you find it, it might just disappear for you and for them. Everyone understands overround in theory, but a real book doesn't work exactly like that. Is that a clue? |
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The positives of this thread is that if you try to crack slicers system you get to know the market very deeeeepley (stats, odds, odds-changing, timeline, volumes, freak results, etc...).
From now on I think I am able to predict how the market moves if a goal is scored and which odds will be. Also you get to know how the odds behave if no goal is scored (e.g. looking at the timeline some odds stay at same level while others are changing) I think thats the market I have put the most energy into ....besides tennis. Very interesting ....AND you will spot chances for highly valuable odds! I will continue to put more thoughts into it. |
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I wonder though whether you can devise a strategy that never loses from patterns based exclusively on Market Behaviour. On the face of it there is too much variability in the way a market can react to situations to be confident you have a watertight strategy for every occasion.
Slicer himself has said in previous posts that his strategy is quite simple...and indeed by inference it isn't based on odds as he couldn't back check them....he back-checked scores. That doesn't make it easy to spot but having spotted it, the necessary mechanics may be quite straightforward. That doesn't mean there aren't other highly profitable strategies out there however. |
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.
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Not only do you lack middle pace, you lack good taste!
For goodness sake, move along now, their is nothing to sea hear! |
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There's another meeting of the discussion group tonight at 8pm UK time folks. Hopefully see you there!
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I think some of you are employed to keep this thread on the forum!
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Indeed...when the Sun finally goes supernova this thread will still be here :-)
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Just until tomorrow then ...
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lots of strategies are profitable
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