|
By:
Bielefeld v Rot-Weiss Ahlen
1-0 @ 9 2-0 @ 8.20 Le Havre v Nimes 1-0 @ 6.60 Bohemians v Sligo Rovers 1-0 @ 6.60 2-0 @ 6.80 Guimaraes v Naval 1-0 @ 6 0-3 @ 240 |
|
By:
39 from 363 @ 10.68 ( 14.8% ROI )
Ponte Preta v Atletico-GO 2-0 @ 14.50 Newells v Argentinos Juniors 0-0 @ 13.50 0-3 @ 160 Shimizu v Omiya 2-0 @ 9.40 |
|
By:
Sydney v North Queensland
1-1 @ 11.50 Newcastle v Brisbane 1-3 @ 32 |
|
By:
Motherwell v Rangers
1-0 @ 25 CSKA Moscow v Kryliya Sovetov 0-2 @ 42 Cittadella v Grosseto 0-3 @ 75 |
|
By:
CSKA Moscow v Kryliya Sovetov
1-3 @ 75 Crotone v Cesena 0-2 @ 26 Dortmund v B Munich 1-0 @ 20 Hoffenheim v Bochum 0-1 @ 25 Mantova v Reggina 2-0 @ 26 3-0 @ 90 Tampere United v IFK Mariehamn AnyUnq @ 17 Torino v Albinoleffe 0-1 @ 30 0-2 @ 85 1-2 @ 36 Triestina v Salernitana 0-2 @ 40 1-2 @ 24 Wolfsburg v Leverkusen 0-1 @ 21 |
|
By:
penalty motherwell at 0-0... good luck :)
|
|
By:
missed... unreal
|
|
By:
0-0 ft... very unlucky on that one
|
|
By:
yep, i see my friend the 'losing streak' has come to visit.
hope he doesnt stay long ! 39 from 385 @ 10.68 ( 8.2% ROI ) Tigre v Arsenal FC 0-2 @ 23 Flamengo v Sport Recife 2-0 @ 10 Sao Paulo v Avai 1-0 @ 8.60 Los Angeles v Dallas 2-0 @ 10.50 |
|
By:
Spartak Nalchik v Lokomotiv
1-3 @ 28 3-1 @ 42 Ajax v Breda 2-0 @ 9 0-1 @ 48 Sparta Rotterdam v Waalwijk 1-0 @ 9.40 0-2 @ 50 VVV v Heracles 2-0 @ 14 0-1 @ 17 Inter v Parma 2-0 @ 7.20 0-1 @ 46 Palermo v Bari 1-0 @ 7.40 1-3 @ 85 Siena v Roma 0-2 @ 13.50 2-0 @ 32 Udinese v Catania 3-0 @ 17 1-3 @ 75 |
|
By:
Cardiff v Newcastle
0-1 @ 12 3-3 @ 85 W Bremen v Hannover AnyUnq @ 3.30 1-0 @ 14 Asteras Tripolis v PAOK AnyUnq @ 24 1-0 @ 9.80 Ergotelis v Xanthi 1-0 @ 7 Aarau v Luzern AnyUnq @ 9.60 0-0 @ 15 Bellinzona v FC Basel 1-2 @ 9 Esbjerg v Koge 1-0 @ 10 Anyunq @ 4.40 |
|
By:
Hamilton v Hibernian
0-2 @ 10.50 Rapid Vienna v Red Bull Salzburg 1-2 @ 13.50 AnyUnq @ 7.40 TPS v Lahti 2-1 @ 9.60 Vitesse v NEC Nijmegen 1-0 @ 9.40 Zenit St Petersburg v Rostov AnyUnq @ 6.20 Elche v Salamanca 0-0 @ 9.80 3-1 @ 26 Gijon v Almeria AnyUnq @ 13 1-0 @ 9.60 Helsingborgs v Brommapojkarna AnyUnq @ 6.6 Rennes v St Etienne 1-1 @ 8 Tenerife v Osasuna 3-1 @ 27 AnyUnq @ 15.50 Villarreal v Mallorca 1-1 @ 8.80 Fulham v Everton 0-3 @ 44 0-2 @ 15 GL All. |
|
By:
46 from 434 @ 10.44 ( 10.6% ROI )
Brann v Viking 1-1 @ 9 Hacken v AIK 1-0 @ 9 2-0 @ 16 Randers v AaB 1-0 @ 13 1-2 @ 10 Djurgardens v Malmo FF AnyUnq @ 16.50 1-0 @ 10 Cottbus v Karlsruhe AnyUnq @ 8.80 Ancona v Empoli 1-3 @ 30 AnyUnq @ 17 Falkirk v Aberdeen 0-1 @ 8.40 MK Dons v Norwich 1-0 @ 9.6 0-2 @ 24 GL All. |
|
By:
48 from 447 @ 10.37 ( 11.4% ROI )
Reggina v Vicenza 2-1 @ 8.80 Sassuolo v Triestina 3-1 @ 28 Orgryte v Halmstads 0-0 @ 12 AnyUnq @ 14 Atl Madrid v APOEL 0-0 @ 28 AnyUnq @ 3.60 Besiktas v Man Utd 1-0 @ 20 Bray v Longford 1-1 @ 8.40 Chelsea v Porto 1-3 @ 150 Derby v Barnsley 2-1 @ 9.40 FC Zurich v Real Madrid AnyUnq @ 3.70 Hearts v Kilmarnock 2-1 @ 9.80 Ipswich v Nottm Forest 0-0 @ 12 Juventus v Bordeaux 0-1 @ 18 Maccabi Haifa v B Munich AnyUnq @ 5.70 Marseille v AC Milan AnyUnq @ 18 Scunthorpe v Preston 2-0 @ 19 0-1 @ 10 Sheff Wed v Middlesbrough 1-0 @ 10 St Patricks v Waterford 1-0 @ 7 Swansea v Bristol City 1-0 @ 8.60 0-2 @ 19 West Brom v Doncaster 2-1 @ 9.40 Wolfsburg v CSKA Moscow 1-0 @ 9.40 QPR v C Palace Anyunq @ 15 3-1 @ 25 Shamrock Rovers v Sporting Fingal 2-2 @ 19 1-1 @ 7.20 GL All. |
|
By:
51 from 473 @ 10.53 ( 13.5% ROI )
Portuguesa SP v Ponte Preta AnyUnq @ 8.60 0-2 @ 23 |
|
By:
Morning Fatal, you seemed to go through a spell of less games and more scores and now more games & less scores again. Is that you modifying the system or just the way it falls? GL
|
|
By:
Cres, just very slight adjustment to value calc. Same spreadsheet.
Been monitoring this method on over / under 2.5 as well. Runnin @ 65% strike rate ! might start nibblin them at small stakes and post em up as well.. How you doin lately? Denizlispor v Sivasspor 0-1 @ 10 Anyunq @ 15 Dinamo Kiev v Rubin Kazan 0-2 @ 26 Liverpool v Debrecen Anyunq @ 2.58 Lyon v Fiorentina 3-0 @ 19 Olympiacos v AZ Alkmaar 2-2 @ 19.50 Standard v Arsenal 1-1 @ 8.80 Reading v Cardiff 0-1 @ 10 3-0 @ 36 |
|
By:
Ticking over thanks Fatal, just getting into the new season(s) now. Normally just back or lay the home team. The overs/unders market is an interesting one and that 65% strike rate is excellent if it holds up. When I've looked at it in the past, it seems very much statistically priced tho with no such direct correlation to the results, certainly feel you would lose if bet blindly on statistical goal expectancy. As you'd expect there is a slight bias in the more popular leagues / matches where people bet wanting to see goals. I have wondered whether an edge could be found on either a "goals due / not due basis" looking at the 2 teams in question or alternatively by drilling down further on the stats than the market makers may do and breaking down the expectancy for & against teams in top/middle/bottom thirds of the table. Don't have your stats tho! would be interested in your views..
GL |
|
By:
I'll get back to you cres..
Coritiba v Corinthians 0-2 @ 19 Goias v Atletico-MG Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.66 |
|
By:
Cres, not sure i understand fully some of your points,ie; what do you mean by a "goals due / not due basis"?? however, i am hoping that due to the cs market being 'wider', they may be a more accurate guide to likely over/under results than the over/ under markets themselves.
I combine my usual cs spreadsheet findings with an assessment of monies available for each Cs and if an obvious over/under 2.5 result looks value, its backed. 52 from 486 @ 10.52 ( 12.5% ROI ) Dinamo Zagreb v Anderlecht 1-1 @ 7.60 0-1 @ 14.50 GAIS v Gefle 1-1 @ 7.40 1-2 @ 18 H Berlin v Ventspils 1-0 @ 8.80 Lille v Valencia 3-2 @ 46 AnyUnq @ 13.50 Panathinaikos v Galatasaray 1-0 @ 9.60 Sturm Graz v Dinamo Bucharest 0-0 @ 12 AnyUnq @ 14 Benfica v BATE Borisov AnyUnq @ 4.30 Club Brugge v Shakhtar 1-0 @ 15 1-1 @ 8 CFR Cluj v FC Kobenhavn Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.30 Heerenveen v Sp Lisbon Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.98 Club Brugge v Shakhtar Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.92 GL All. |
|
By:
Lille v Valencia
3-2 @ 46 Slightly speculative!!!!!! I know LILLE beat GENK 4-2......but hard to see em score 3 goals against a fast moving outfit like VALENCIA............... Would not be surprised if a DRAW this game though....1-1 or 0-0.....but 3-2 odds should be 100-1 at least ]:) Just glanced at list ....and that one caught my eye ......Hope I'm wrong...but will have small punt on DRAW in a multiple bet probably..................not sure yet. GL FS......... |
|
By:
Spot on D'man - 1-1 FT
well done. all bad results for me. incl over/under ( 0 from 4 !!! ) such is life, move along. |
|
By:
52 from 499 @ 10.52 ( 9.6% ROI )
Lanus v River Plate 1-0 @ 9.20 0-1 @ 13.50 |
|
By:
Zaglebie Lubin v GKS Belchatow
0-1 @ 10 Duisburg v Bielefeld 0-1 @ 17.50 2-0 @ 16 Karlsruhe v FSV Frankfurt 0-0 @ 21 0-1 @ 34 1-2 @ 32 Koblenz v Union Berlin 2-0 @ 19 Paderborn v Cottbus 0-2 @ 18.50 2-0 @ 16.50 Legia Warsaw v Lechia Gdansk 1-2 @ 48 1-3 @ 340 Trabzonspor v Antalyaspor 1-2 @ 32 1-3 @ 130 Schalke v Wolfsburg 1-0 @ 13 2-0 @ 15.50 Sheff Utd v Sheff Wed 0-2 @ 36 0-3 @ 130 GL All. |
|
By:
New York Red Bulls v New England
0-3 @ 44 |
|
By:
53 from 519 @ 10.49 ( 7.1% ROI )
Rostov v Kuban 0-1 @ 10 Lecce v Crotone 1-1 @ 9 Mgladbach v Hoffenheim 1-0 @ 14 2-0 @ 23 Reggina v Cittadella 1-2 @ 29 |
|
By:
Stuttgart v FC Koln
2-0 @ 9.60 Aston Villa v Portsmouth 0-1 @ 27 Bolton v Stoke 0-1 @ 12.50 Burton v Dag and Red 0-0 @ 15.50 C Palace v Derby 1-2 @ 15 Cardiff v QPR 0-1 @ 14.50 Doncaster v Ipswich 1-3 @ 38 0-2 @ 19 Halmstads v Helsingborgs 2-0 @ 20 Middlesbrough v West Brom 1-0 @ 10 Northampton v Rochdale 2-0 @ 16.50 0-3 @ 46 Norwich v Charlton 0-1 @ 10 0-0 @ 13 Odd Grenland v Stabaek 0-2 @ 24 Peterborough v Reading 0-2 @ 19 Stockport v L Orient 0-0 @ 13 0-2 @ 20 Walsall v Swindon 2-0 @ 15.50 1-0 @ 10 Watford v Leicester 3-1 @ 29 Napoli v Udinese 0-1 @ 19.50 1-2 @ 15.50 West Ham v Liverpool 1-0 @ 20 & Norwich v Charlton under 2.5 goals @ 1.92 Stockport v L Orient under 2.5 goals @ 1.92 Heracles v Sparta Rotterdam over 2.5 goals @ 1.93 |
|
By:
53 from 548 @ 10.49 ( 1.5% ROI )
crap results again for me. gonna pull the pin for a while need to do more stats and thinkin. As it appears this will also finish around even ROI. Thanks for input peoples. Be back when the confidence is . GL all. |
|
By:
FS - you need to look at the logic of your approach. I think it is too circular.
|
|
By:
Sorry to hear that FS, hope you regroup and come back, may still be mileage in the overs / unders..
GL |
|
By:
FS - instead of correct score with your selections, couldnt u try under/overs instead
|
|
By:
Thanks for the support peoples...
The statistical gears are a grindin' and I'm confident of somethin' with a positive ROI will eventuate... lookin at Over/under and match odds.... but the CS market is the most challenging and the fish is the only one i know of with 'proven' success. Never give up, never give in. GL all. |
|
By:
is the fish using poisson too, or is that just a coincidence?
|
|
By:
I've no doubt the fish uses poisson to some degree, as he definitely uses a spreadsheet.
My own 'gears grindin' has has enabled me to work out how to calculate the 'real' cs markets odds. ie; the current 'Back' odds are not necessarily a good indication of what the market as a whole is 'thinking'. The entire back side and lay side of the cs market gives what i'd call 'true' odds. Then i run this thru my usual spreadsheet, and using Match odds to generate a supremacy figure., i then do the comparison with current odds and 'likelihood' factor, ( you still following ?) and finally the ratings. Have started paper testing this theory( with some promise, as always with paper testing ! ) Will start postin em up next week if things remain promising. Gl All. |
|
By:
FatalStatistics, have you considered pricing up the whole market?
If you're backing one selection that you think is out of line, you could put the same amount of money on all other selections without increasing your liability. You would put these bets on at a price 'equally out of line' as your selected bet. Obviously it won't be in the front of the queue, but it could get matched at some stage. If your bets are large enough you can price up both sides too. I Have to admit that I don't do this myself, as it's too time consuming, but I am looking at doing this when I automate some of what I do. |
|
By:
Mr Fish was not in profit.
|
|
By:
I get what your saying investor,and my spreadsheet does give me prices for the whole market.. but i'm really only interested in 'getting matched' on more favoured cs outcomes, because although landing big odds correct scores is great fun... the longer the odds you're taking the bigger and longer the likely 'losing streak' also.
So my current theory is concentrating on finding value with the the 2 or 3 'favoured' cs outcomes. Dayna, are you sure..? I recall him posting up his results, and being well and truly in profit.! |
|
By:
Okay,
spreadsheet keeps pointing me to 1-0's and 1-1's for 'value'... so thats what i'm goin with..(on selected matches..) Usual small level stakes testing to at least 500 test bets.. 'Never give up - never give in' GL All. Spain U20 v Italy U20 1-1 @ 9 Slavia Prague v Sparta Prague 1-0 @ 8.60 PAOK v Iraklis 1-1 @ 8 Xanthi v AEK 1-0 @ 9 IFK Goteborg v GAIS 1-0 @ 8.20 OB Odense v AaB 1-0 @ 8.40 Panathinaikos v Larissa 1-0 @ 6.80 Torino v Ancona 1-0 @ 7 1-1 @ 9.40 Tours v Nantes 1-0 @ 8.80 Pacos Ferreira v Benfica 1-1 @ 10 |
|
By:
Torino v Ancona 1-1 @ 9.40 ***won***
Xanthi v AEK 1-0 @ 9 ***won*** 2 from 11 @ 9.20 67% ROI Ghana U20 v South Africa U20 1-0 @ 10 1-1 @ 9.80 Egypt U20 v Costa Rica U20 1-0 @ 9 1-1 @ 9.60 MK Dons v Southend 1-0 @ 8.40 Bury v Tranmere 1-0 @ 8.40 Charlton v Barnet 1-0 @ 8.20 1-1 @ 9.20 Cork v Derry 1-1 @ 7.40 Leeds v Darlington 1-0 @ 8.60 St Patricks v Sligo Rovers 1-0 @ 7.80 |
|
By:
Ghana U20 v South Africa U20 1-1 @ 9.80 ***won***
3 from 22 @ 9.40 28.2% ROI Portuguesa SP v Sao Caetano 1-0 @ 8.80 1-1 @ 7.40 |