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Portuguesa SP v Sao Caetano 1-1 @ 7.40 ***won***
4 from 24 @ 8.90 48.3% ROI Got a good 'gut feeling' bout this method, ( I have paper tested nearly 200 other matches as well ) Time will inevitably tell... |
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Tigre v Huracan
1-1 @ 7.60 |
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Your latest method is selecting 1-1, 1-0 and 0-1, these scorelines are often among the top 5 or 6 favourite options and as such tend to be overbet rather than underbet in my experience. If anything I would be researching doing the opposite.
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Been there and done the opposite Lily, the losing streaks killed me..
1-1 and 1-0 are in fact the'most common' result overall and as such are sometimes definitely overbet. But wouldnt you agree that because they are the 'smallest liabilty', they are also sometimes 'over layed' ??. differentiating between the two - there in lies the value. Banfield v Tucuman 1-0 @ 7.60 Sao Paulo v Coritiba 1-0 @ 8 1-1 @ 9.40 Godoy Cruz v Newells 1-0 @ 10.50 Internacional v Nautico 1-0 @ 10 |
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4 from 30 @ 8.90 18.7% ROI
Croatia v Qatar 1-0 @ 9.40 |
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Palmeiras v Avai
1-0 @ 9.80 |
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quick question if i may please.
Do you have a staking system? |
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4 from 32 @ 8.90 11.2% ROI
Melbourne v Sydney 1-1 @ 7.60 No staking plan yet jonnyg, gotta make sure the method works at level stakes first. GL. |
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Bohemians v Drogheda
1-0 @ 7 Dundalk v St Patricks 1-0 @ 7.80 Hartlepool v Brentford 1-0 @ 9.60 Sligo Rovers v Galway Utd 1-0 @ 8.40 Southend v Southampton 1-0 @ 9.60 |
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havent had a winner since i said "Got a good 'gut feeling' bout this method," ......!
4 from 38 @ 8.90 -6.4% ROI Parana v Atletico-GO 1-1 @ 8.20 |
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Japan v Scotland
1-0 @ 7.20 Aldershot v Morecambe 1-0 @ 9.20 Bournemouth v Chesterfield 1-0 @ 8 |
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Wales U21 v Bosnia U21
1-0 @ 8.80 Zambia v Egypt 1-1 @ 7.60 Bradford v Crewe 1-0 @ 10.50 Charlton v Oldham 1-0 @ 7.80 Dag and Red v Darlington 1-1 @ 10 Gillingham v Wycombe 1-0 @ 7.60 1-1 @ 8 Grimsby v Burton 1-0 @ 10.50 Huddersfield v Exeter 1-1 @ 8.60 |
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MK Dons v Walsall
1-0 @ 7.60 1-1 @ 8.40 Macclesfield v Lincoln 1-0 @ 9.80 Norway v South Africa 1-1 @ 7.80 Rotherham v Hereford 1-1 @ 8.80 Swindon v Millwall 1-0 @ 9.60 Yeovil v Brighton 1-0 @ 9.80 Cameroon v Togo 1-0 @ 7.60 Belarus v Kazakhstan 1-0 @ 9.60 Russia v Germany 1-0 @ 10 Bahrain v New Zealand 1-0 @ 8 1-1 @ 9.40 Ukraine v England 1-0 @ 9.60 1-1 @ 7.80 Celta Vigo v Albacete 1-0 @ 7.20 Denmark v Sweden 1-1 @ 7.20 Liechtenstein v Azerbaijan 1-0 @ 8.60 1-1 @ 7.60 Austria v Lithuania 1-1 @ 8.20 Czech Republic v Poland 1-1 @ 9.20 Greece v Latvia 1-0 @ 6.80 1-1 @ 10 Serbia v Romania 1-1 @ 8.60 Slovakia v Slovenia 1-0 @ 8.40 Rep of Ireland v Italy 1-0 @ 9.60 GL All. |
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MK Dons v Walsall 1-0 @ 7.60***won***
Rotherham v Hereford 1-1 @ 8.80***won*** Ukraine v England 1-0 @ 9.60***won*** 7 from 76 @ 8.80 -19% ROI struggling. Coritiba v Barueri 1-0 @ 9.80 1-1 @ 8.80 Internacional v Atletico-PR 1-0 @ 10.50 Venezuela v Paraguay 1-0 @ 8 1-1 @ 7.40 New England v Columbus 1-0 @ 10 Costa Rica v Trinidad & Tobago 1-0 @ 10 |
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7 from 83 @ 8.80 - 26% ROI
Betis v Real Union 1-0 @ 7.60 Salernitana v Cittadella 1-0 @ 8.60 |
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You're probably thinking that it isn't going too well, but stick at it. That's the beauty of Betfair, a losing back system = a winning lay system, as long as you keep the -ve ROI at current levels.
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Sorry lil, should have answered you sooner, good advice, but i dont have the patience for that or the desire for a 'lay system'.
Still searchin for the back value... New tack again.. Unirea Alba Iulia v Int. Curtea de Arges 2-3 @ 65 Hungary U20 v Costa Rica U20 2-3 @ 38 GKS Belchatow v Slask Wroclaw 1-0 @ 7.60 1-1 @ 7.20 Ruch Chorzow v Lechia Gdansk 1-0 @ 6.60 Clermont v Caen 1-1 @ 6.60 Cottbus v Kaiserslautern 3-1 @ 30 Galway Utd v Derry 0-1 @ 7.80 1-1 @ 7 Lecce v Salernitana 0-3 @ 280 2-3 @ 120 3-3 @ 140 GL All. |
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Nantes v Metz
0-1 @ 14 0-2 @ 36 1-2 @ 22 Leeds v Norwich 1-2 @ 20 Albinoleffe v Sassuolo 0-2 @ 25 Union Berlin v G Furth 1-2 @ 15 Fredrikstad v Odd Grenland 0-0 @ 22 |
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unlucky with the leeds score tonight that could easily have gone your way. as a variation have you considered betting on under 1.5, over 4.5 etc goal markets as they would land more bets than correct score betting and with better returns than the under/over 2.5 goal markets. also how long do you give each variation of your system? surely correct score betting at double figure prices has massive short term variance, that must be hard to factor,quantify into results. gl and i hope you find a winning formula
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Yep . thanks swamper, missed the Leeds one but landed the Union Berlin 1-2 @ 15 so profitable day.
No havent considered your under 1.5, over 4.5 etc goal markets suggestion as yet.. sounds feasible though.. And yes the big variances of Cs betting is probably the main cause of the 'torture' !! there are inevitably long winning and losing streaks, and if a theory or method starts poorly it can be hard to find the patience to see it through... As ive previously mentioned somewhere in this thread , I believe you need to multiply your strike rate by 100 to enable any real confident conclusions to be made. ie; 1 in 10 strike rate = 1000 bets or 1 in 5 strike rate means 500 bets etc... |
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Accrington S v Shrewsbury
0-0 @ 14.50 Bohemians v St Patricks 1-3 @ 230 Bristol City v Plymouth 1-2 @ 23 Inter v Dinamo Kiev 0-0 @ 15.50 0-1 @ 30 1-2 @ 34 Ipswich v Watford 1-0 @ 9.80 West Brom v Swansea 0-1 @ 19.50 Middlesbrough v Derby 0-2 @ 48 Shamrock Rovers v Cork 1-2 @ 29 GL All. |
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Shamrock Rovers v Cork 1-2 @ 29 ***won***
West Brom v Swansea 0-1 @ 19.50***won*** 4 from 29 @ 17.50 ( 141.7% ROI ) ( I know i shouldnt be getting excited yet, but at least its a damn good start. ) Fortaleza v Atletico-GO 0-0 @ 18 0-1 @ 14 Velez v LDU 1-2 @ 24 |
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Fortaleza v Atletico-GO 0-1 @ 14 ***won***
5 from 32 @ 16.82 ( 162% ROI ) Chelsea v Atl Madrid 0-0 @ 16 1-1 @ 12 1-3 @ 150 Juventus v Maccabi Haifa 0-0 @ 21 1-1 @ 15 |
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5 from 37 @ 16.82 ( 127.3% ROI )
Ath Bilbao v Nacional 1-0 @ 8.80 Austria Vienna v W Bremen 0-1 @ 10.50 1-0 @ 23 Benfica v Everton 0-1 @ 15.50 Club Brugge v Partizan Belgrade 0-1 @ 17.50 Lazio v Villarreal 0-1 @ 13.50 PSV v FC Kobenhavn 1-2 @ 26 Red Bull Salzburg v Levski Sofia 1-0 @ 9.40 Shakhtar v Toulouse 1-0 @ 8.60 1-2 @ 29 Ajax v Dinamo Zagreb 1-0 @ 9.40 0-1 @ 27 CSKA Sofia v FC Basel 0-1 @ 12 Celtic v Hamburg 0-1 @ 11 Fulham v Roma 3-1 @ 34 H Berlin v Heerenveen 1-2 @ 16 Hapoel Tel Aviv v Rapid Vienna 1-0 @ 10 Panathinaikos v Sturm Graz 1-1 @ 11 Valencia v Slavia Prague 0-0 @ 24 GL All. |
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Red Bull Salzburg v Levski Sofia 1-0 @ 9.40***won***
Celtic v Hamburg 0-1 @ 11***won*** 7 from 56 @ 14.93 ( 86.6% ROI ) Newcastle v Central Coast 0-0 @ 12.50 |
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G Furth v Koblenz
0-0 @ 20 GAIS v Malmo FF 0-2 @ 19 2-0 @ 21 Kaiserslautern v Fortuna Dusseldorf 1-2 @ 24 Orebro v Halmstads 0-2 @ 24 Brommapojkarna v IFK Goteborg 0-0 @ 15 1-1 @ 9 Istres v Ajaccio 0-1 @ 12 Laval v Arles 0-1 @ 13 Metz v Guingamp 0-1 @ 13 Nimes v Sedan 0-1 @ 11 1-2 @ 15 Polonia Bytom v Ruch Chorzow AU @ 18.50 Vannes v Clermont 0-1 @ 12 0-2 @ 27 Caen v Angers 0-1 @ 18 1-2 @ 30 Dijon v Nantes 2-0 @ 19 Leverkusen v Dortmund 0-1 @ 19 Lokeren v Genk 0-2 @ 19.50 Tours v Chateauroux 0-1 @ 12 1-2 @ 18.50 Sligo Rovers v Waterford 0-1 @ 17.50 1-2 @ 24 Cork v Drogheda 0-1 @ 16.50 1-2 @ 28 Dundalk v Shamrock Rovers 1-1 @ 8.20 Torino v Reggina 0-2 @ 38 1-2 @ 20 1-3 @ 90 Utrecht v Roda JC 0-1 @ 21 GL All. |
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Estudiantes v Tucuman
0-1 @ 19.5 1-2 @ 26 Ceara v Duque de Caxias 1-1 @ 9.80 1-2 @ 27 |
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Laval v Arles 0-1 @ 13***won***
Lokeren v Genk 0-2 @ 19.50***won*** 9 from 92 @ 15.22 ( 48.9% ROI ) Kashima v Chiba 0-1 @ 24 Kobe v Niigata AU @ 15 |
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Duisburg v H Rostock
0-1 @ 16.50 1-0 @ 11.50 Khimki v Spartak Moscow 0-2 @ 7.40 |
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This lot'll test the ROI...
Brescia v Albinoleffe 0-2 @ 40 1-2 @ 22 Cesena v Grosseto 0-1 @ 15 AU @ 14.50 Gallipoli v Lecce 1-0 @ 14 2-1 @ 16.50 3-1 @ 70 Hoffenheim v Nurnberg 0-1 @ 27 Mainz v Freiburg 0-1 @ 14.50 Mgladbach v FC Koln 0-1 @ 13.50 Padova v Triestina 0-1 @ 13.50 AU @ 16.50 Piacenza v Modena 0-2 @ 26 AU @ 18.50 Salernitana v Crotone AU @ 18.50 Sassuolo v Cittadella 0-2 @ 32 1-2 @ 17 Asteras Tripolis v Atromitos 0-2 @ 25 Aberdeen v Dundee Utd 0-2 @ 21 Barnet v Darlington 0-1 @ 17 Bournemouth v Grimsby 0-1 @ 24 1-1 @ 9.80 1-2 @ 34 Bradford v Hereford 0-1 @ 16 Bury v Rotherham 3-1 @ 29 Colchester v Walsall 0-1 @ 17 1-1 @ 8.60 1-2 @ 22 Coventry v West Brom 1-0 @ 14.50 2-0 @ 28 Gimnastic v Hercules AU @ 18 Helsingborgs v Kalmar FF 0-2 @ 21 1-0 @ 12.50 Huddersfield v L Orient 0-0 @ 16.50 Morecambe v Northampton 0-1 @ 13 Rangers v Hibernian 0-1 @ 25 Rochdale v Accrington S 0-0 @ 15 0-1 @ 18.50 1-2 @ 22 Tottenham v Stoke 0-1 @ 32 Lokomotiv v Saturn Ramenskoe 0-1 @ 18 Aarau v Bellinzona 0-1 @ 13.50 Sampdoria v Bologna 0-1 @ 21 GL All. |
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Salernitana v Crotone 4-1 @ 18.50***won***
Aberdeen v Dundee Utd 0-2 @ 21***won*** Rochdale v Accrington S 1-2 @ 22***won*** Tottenham v Stoke 0-1 @ 32***won*** must be doin somethin right ...? 13 from 140 @ 17.70 ( 64.6% ROI ) Kansas City v D. C. United 1-0 @ 12 2-0 @ 20 Los Angeles v San Jose Earthquakes 0-0 @ 18 Seattle v Dallas 0-1 @ 15.50 |
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13 from 144 @ 17.70 ( 60.1% ROI )
Amkar v Tomsk 0-1 @ 13.50 Hammarby v AIK 0-0 @ 12 Hamilton v Celtic 0-3 @ 10.50 Levadiakos v Iraklis 3-1 @ 34 AU @ 18.50 St Pauli v Cottbus 1-0 @ 10.50 Manisaspor v Antalyaspor AU @ 15 |
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CSKA Moscow v FC Moscow
0-2 @ 42 1-2 @ 22 Zenit St Petersburg v Spartak Nalchik 0-0 @ 16.50 0-1 @ 30 1-2 @ 44 AZ Alkmaar v Ajax 1-0 @ 15.50 Bolton v Everton 3-0 @ 50 Twente v Groningen 0-1 @ 26 1-2 @ 32 Elfsborg v Hacken 0-0 @ 18.50 0-1 @ 20 Fiorentina v Napoli 0-1 @ 17 Siena v Juventus 1-0 @ 18.50 2-1 @ 28 H Berlin v Wolfsburg 2-1 @ 18.50 FC Kobenhavn v Silkeborg 0-1 @ 29 1-2 @ 28 FC Midtjylland v Koge 2-0 @ 8.60 Luzern v FC Basel 0-1 @ 14.50 1-0 @ 18 Man City v Fulham 0-2 @ 60 Sion v Neuchatel Xamax 0-1 @ 16 |
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Lens v Toulouse
0-1 @ 9.40 0-2 @ 18 Tenerife v Xerez 0-2 @ 32 Villarreal v Malaga 0-1 @ 18 Bochum v W Bremen 0-1 @ 11.50 1-0 @ 24 Odd Grenland v Lyn 0-0 @ 28 Panathinaikos v Paok 0-1 @ 22 1-2 @ 40 Rapid Vienna v Mattersburg 1-0 @ 12 2-0 @ 9.20 Red Bull Salzburg v SV Ried 1-0 @ 10.50 Roeselare v Club Brugge 0-1 @ 9.60 Rosenborg v Aalesunds 1-0 @ 11.50 1-2 @ 29 3-0 @ 13 Stabaek v Bodo/Glimt 2-0 @ 10 Tromso v Start 2-0 @ 12 Valerenga v Sandefjord 1-1 @ 9.60 Xanthi v Kavala 0-1 @ 10 Almeria v Valencia 0-0 @ 14.50 1-0 @ 12.50 thats it - hope the ROI handles the pressure.. GL all.. |
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hi fatal, just scanned through the thread for the first time, interesting reading. looking good on this latest model, GL
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thanks tim
Chievo v AC Milan 1-0 @ 13.50 2-0 @ 30 2-1 @ 18 Avai v Sport Recife 1-2 @ 20 Botafogo RJ v Flamengo 0-2 @ 22 Corinthians v Cruzeiro 0-1 @ 14.50 |
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Fiorentina v Napoli 0-1 @ 17***won***
Lens v Toulouse 0-2 @ 18***won*** Stabaek v Bodo/Glimt 2-0 @ 10***won*** Corinthians v Cruzeiro 0-1 @ 14.50***won*** 17 from 201 @ 17.05 ( 44.3% ROI ) .very happy with over 40% ROi after 200 bets, comfortably the most successful of my 5 attempts on this thread so far...( after 200 bets ) will it still be highly positive after 1000 bets ?? If not - why not ?? Cherno More v Slavia 0-2 @ 44 Ethnikos Asteras v Kerkira 0-1 @ 9.20 0-2 @ 13.50 Slavia Prague v Sigma Olomouc 0-1 @ 20 1-2 @ 30 AGF v FC Nordsj 0-1 @ 16.50 1-0 @ 9.60 GAIS v Brommapojkarna 0-1 @ 16.50 1-2 @ 17.50 Vicenza v Mantova 0-1 @ 14 AU @ 17 Benfica v Nacional 1-1 @ 13 1-2 @ 50 |
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Well done so far FS - fingers crossed!
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Yes good work and well done on keeping at this.
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Thanks...
Slavia Prague v Sigma Olomouc 1-2 @ 30 ***won*** and AGF & GAIS both 0-1 @ 80' .... Guingamp v Le Havre 1-2 @ 15.50 |