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fox - i agree i can go bust if i hit 3 or 4 big priced losers in a row or 4/5 - but i would have to be extremely unlucky not only to hit 4 or 5 from 5 but for them to be bigger prices aswell.
I have tried many staking plans and this is by far my most successful. |
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It does make sense Borderfox, i understand it alot more now, after reading it once it looked frightening but i suppose, like you say he would need to hit 3,4 or 5 losers on the bounce to lose the bank.
GL Kwij, i will be checking into this thread more often now, all the best and WD today. |
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he has went bust a few times b4 on the dog forum.
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Stats from Day 34:
Won 20 of 24 races Increased bank by 4.5% to £544.19 (Target for day 34 to be on course for £5,000 by day 100 £379.43) Stats from Day 1: Have won 658 from 763 which is a 86.2% win rate http://thedogsofkwijebo.blogspot.com/ |
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The One That Got Away 12 Oct 17:16
It does make sense Borderfox, i understand it alot more now, after reading it once it looked frightening but i suppose, like you say he would need to hit 3,4 or 5 losers on the bounce to lose the bank. Kwiji has done really well so far, but he doesn't need to hit 3, 4 or 5 losers on the bounce to lose his bank. He just needs to have a sequence of WLWWLWWLWLWWLWWL or similar and he is stuffed! Just looking at the todays results in the 1148 race he lost £39.59. He then tried to recover £17.45 over 3 bets and fortunately he won these 3 bets. If any of these 3 bets had lost then this would likely have been over as he was risking between £80 & £100+ on each of those bets. Does this look right? Or am I missing something? |
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I have an excel running a simulation on dogs right now. It took two years of data and is making selections from that.
I've been running it live in simulation since August. Today, at Hall Green, it hit four losing races in a row R5 T1: 7/2 W (100%) R6 T1: 9/4F L (50%) R6 T6: 9/2 W (50%) R7 T4: 5/2F L (33.33%) R7 T5: 11/4 W (33.33%) R7 T6: 9/2 L (33.33%) R8 T4: 3/1 L (33.33%) R8 T5: 7/2 W (33.33%) R8 T6: 7/2 L (33.33%) Now I haven't worked out the damage against betfair estimates (I have taken data on odds i.e. 5/2 = 3.5 in betfair then curved it way up (5/1 outwards, depending on the overall of the field can = 9.0 and higher on betfair), but if I was using the staking plan at hand, I would have recovered because the next three races flagged 4 lays, all successful, but the stakes would have been incredible to "recover". Right now, trying to devise a new approach on "recovery" (which I really feel is chasing) so it goes against the grain of my thinking of once it is gone, it is gone. It keeps my head clear. My main reason is to post that despite having a filter that has shown 89% (some tracks, 100%) over two years has and can have a streak of four in a row. |
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percentages represented the spread of risk (i.e. 3 lays, a third each)
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Lays this morning pre posted under 'Tuesday BAGS' in greyhound section if anyones interested.
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Interesting shapeshifter! rather than laying all under 5/1 and spreading the risk would it not be best laying the top 3 regardless of price?
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Hope my 100% pre posted lays helped anyone today ???
B-) |
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cdh, that was just one four race sample.
I tend to target 1 to 2 and, on occassion, 3. Lots of factors in the decision. But mathematically, laying the top three in the market will not pay off in the long run or short run for that matter. Right now, system is built on hitting a target. If the target is hit on the first race, I shut down for the balance of the meeting. If the lay(s) are unsuccessful, then the system kicks in and runs for "x" amount of races unless it encounters X amount in losses, then shuts down with a losing day. |
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I saw your posting earlier. You might find posting in advance could affect the price rolling up, depending on when your bot is grabbing your bet.
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Kwijs, I noticed you posting your bets in advance. You might find that this is rolling your prices up depending on when your bot is taking the price.
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certainly not posting every day shape - just when the wind blows in the right direction !
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Then I wish you smooth sailing
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i had you down as 23 from 24 winning lays,you laid trap4 in the 11..11 at perry barr,according to my results it won at 9/4,apart from that very well done
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3 won :)
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yes aldric i guess you are right there. i cant figure the maths tho for a more safer approach. maybe a smaller % gain everyday ,and the recovery spread out more like 20% over 5 bets? or is that just making recovery even more difficult?
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fox - i tried more races for less % but i found i was in recovery mode for most of the day most of the days .
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Stats for day 35:
Won 18 of 18 races Increased bank by 4.1% to £566.56 (Target for day 35 to be on course for £5,000 by day 100 £394.61) Stats from Day 1: Have won 676 of 781 races which is a 86.5% win rate http://thedogsofkwijebo.blogspot.com/ |
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borderfox has a point regarding speading the risk over more bets such as 5 or 6?
good thread by the way and good luck to all. |
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cdh,
I posted earlier on this. Have mixed emotions on "recovery". Find that if you get the headspace that once it is gone, it is gone. Right now I have been testing "recovery" using similar. In my case, I lay for a gain of 2.5% of account on the third race of each meeting (using a combo of form and then track read after two races). Thus I can make a 5% on the morning dogs, another 5% on the afternoon either in horses or dogs. If the race is successful, I shut down on that meeting If it is not, then I target to net 2.5 over 3 to 4 races. So a combo of recoup and gain. Using 3 as example, if I get the three on the meeting, then, again, I shut down. So I can be done by around 12:30 each day on the dogs. Unless a second losing lay then a combo of lays and trading to hit my target. I'll also walk away and study races later in the morning to find targets rather than consecutive at that point. And, more importantly, will walk away red and lick my wounds rather than chase and open a small gash more. Thus, on your point of "5 or 6 races", it all comes down to your strike rate and confidence. But I found the longer at the table, the more of a chance of another lay hitting you. Nothing worse than going 4, hitting a loss then going into a sequence of losses. To me, time is more important. If I am in front of the screen for a few hours, I prefer to be doing research on future events. Today - done at Newcastle laying in the 1142 (layed two dogs so hit was very minor) HGRN. 1134 was not successful. I layed in 1148, skipped the 1204 and then layed in the 1218 to get back to evens. Going for the 2.5% gain in the 1232.......targetted trades and lays will be on T2 and T3. Fingers crossed otherwise I end up studying my spreadsheets over lunch. |
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3...4...1..... :(
so some reading over lunch morning dogs combined around 3.5% down on the morning. Even if I called it a day, I won't lose sleep. |
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Took an extra track to 90%+ win rate today - Welcome to the club Belle Vue !
Stats from Day 36: Won 23 of 24 races Increased bank by £31.66 which is 5.5% to £598.22 (Target for day 36 to be on course for £5,000 by day 100 £410.39) Stats from Day 1: Have won 699 of 805 races which is a 86.8% win rate http://thedogsofkwijebo.blogspot.com/ |
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Day 37 I had a winning day (5% ish) but on 6 seperate races (details will be on blog) i was one race away from going bust , and on 3 of those 6 I finished 2nd !
With this in mind rather than lose my £600+ bank I'm gonna call it quits til I re consider my position and adjust my staking. (This is because i was unhappily sweating far toooo much 2day.) Yes i have balls but 'tweaking' is now my new best friend ! |
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A great decision Kwij tweak and try again :) Well done ........... discipline :)
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i thought with the bot it took the pressure off. just go shopping
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freddie....bots only do what we program them to do. So the only thing they do is take the "pressure off" of placing the bet when they are supposed to be plus any conditions, etc.
They do keep you "disciplined" with your game plan which is a plus |
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One factor with dogs I have found; the weather changes now so alot of approaches used for making selections from May to September change DRASTICALLY. This is based on two years of watching the dogs.
You might want to do a quick simulation on your selections (did you keep the ones AFTER the bot shuts down) and see how your days do with level stake risk. It might take longer to hit your target but as I posted over a month ago, one bad day can wipe out alot of hard work. |
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Just add a stop loss, pretty simple solution isn't it?
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then u cant recover . kwiji can u post up the last day. i want a look at it.
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But if you only hit the stop loss once or twice in a month then its all good.
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i'll do this afternoon fox
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Had a few weeks off - back for Day 38 tomorrow (prob).
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About time that blog was updated :)
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welcome back, and good luck :-)
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:)
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Stats from Day 38:
Won 25 of 27 races Increased bank by £41.60 to £674.64 Target for Day 38 to be on course for £5,000 on Day 100 is £443.88 Stats from Day 1: Have won 742 of 855 which is a 86.7% win rate Revised track stats: 1) Oxford (66 of 70 races) 94.2% win rate 2) Nottingham (44/47) 93.6% 3) Belle Vue (18/20) 90% 4) Sheffield (98/110) 89% 5) Hall Green (75/86) 87.2% 6) Hove (105/121) 86.7% 7) Sunderland (57/66) 86.3% 8) Crayford (60/71) 84.5% 9) Perry Barr (79/95) 83.1% 10)Newcastle (32/39) 82% 11)Romford (54/66) 81.8% 12)Swindon (28/35) 80% 13)Monmore (16/20) 80% 14)Kinsley (4/5) 80% http://thedogsofkwijebo.blogspot.com/ |
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Well done mate
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thanx 'some' .
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