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freddiewilliams 07 Sep 15:56
a dog wins . then the next one wins too. the next losses but the one after that wins big losses??????? Last Thursday, I had layed and traded consistantly through the day making a solid green on the day after three easy hours and had intended to back Bondarenko over Dulko. Since I was up on the day green, I decided to see how the match went with the intention of backing Bondarenko if the odds swung for more value. They did in the first set and I backed her. Once the odds moved in, I traded out but rather than "all green", I went with my back and left it with zero of Dulko, thus a free bet. I walked away with a positive vibe on the day. Coming back, Dulko was well in and leading. I decided to trade then risk the additional profit into a lay on Dulko. All fine then traded moved in on me and I ended up with the SLIGHTEST red that did not affect my day at all. But my brain instead looked at the minor loss and did something I have not done in ages. I looked at my filters that were running on Crayford and it had targetted a lay. I decided to trade then lay to get back my MINOR loss. The dog lost. It would have been a successful lay but during my trading, I had left up a back that was snatched at the off. So a loss on a postion that should have never been. Compounding the tennis that should have been zero and the dog lay turned back that only happened because of the bad trades on my free tennis bet, I cursed the screen wiping out 60% of my three hour day (time is more valuable to me than money!). As I walked away, the computer "beeped" and a Romford lay was indicated. Again, I had not shut down my filters an hour before. The filter had a 97% strike rate at Romford. I failed to notice that it was A8 which is sometimes the same as a seller of horses that didn't get sold at the last seller. But my eye saw the 97%. I traded over four minutes and layed a small amount. It would make back a quarter of my losses of the past twenty minutes. But, hey, the filter is 97% right so let's risk the trade PLUS some more and make back 50%. A scrappy start then fell into an order at the first bend with my lay leading and remained that way to the line. Though not "mathematically" layed out with a "recovery plan", I went from three hours of really easy, decent profit topped with a free bet to: - turning a free bet into a losing lay - backing a dog I intended to lay (by leaving up a position while trading) - to getting involved with a dog of a dog race. No horror stories of a bank being wiped out but essentially an entire day wasted trying to RECOVER (translated - chasing) a loss that should have never happened. ------------------------ Laying ONE selecition is backing the field against. When one is backing, they aim at betting a certain amount that they can afford to lose and carry on (for example, this weekend I had two football bets around 4/5 each - one came in / the other a draw. The two together risked 4% of my bank so essentially a loss of 1%. I slept well Saturday night and no bets Sunday waking up with 99% of what I had Friday) The detrimental approach that people take: When people BACK the field (lay one horse), they risk different amounts rather than a set "BACK" amount. By combining a "flat rate" gain per race with a "recovery" formula, there is a strong probality that over the "100 days", one or more days will eat alot of work It might take more than 100 days but setting your risk will create a smoother graph and less spikes. One survivors opinion. Good luck with the journey |
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interesting shapeshifter. thanks
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shapeshifter what staking system would u recommend for laying 1 dog per race .
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The only reason I use a "percentage of bank" is because I will trade then leave a "percentage at risk"
The most I will leave in after trading is 3% as I do with all bets, back or lay. So for example, if I am laying with a bank of £100, before the off, the biggest risk on the table of all positions should be £3. I find the secret is to find more than one position in a race and trade them into value. You can then rock it up and down (2 to 4%) depending on how you feel about the play. For dogs (and horses, infact): Best to trade early and if you reduce the risk, trade out then regroup. If you want to then increase the risk to the target of 3%, fine tune it. But people in haste tend to make mistakes. So to close then "fine-tune" is good. I also have the attitude that if you can trade out green on dogs, do it. Small gains but a guaranteed gain. The dogs really fluctuates and alot of game-players and people working in teams to get your dosh. They will push the odds out with little bets to get fish to chase. Stick to YOUR PERCEIVED VALUES and let the market come to you. There are enough races that you can pass on. Also, have the guts to trade out red with dogs. Again, plenty of races. By the way: Willy Hillbillies have less delay than others if you are trading near the off. |
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Yesterday didn't update - heres the figures :-
Stats for day 12: Won 23 of 26 races which is a 88.4% win rate. From Day 1: Won 233 of 271 races which is 85.9% win rate |
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Stats for Day13:
Won 25 of 28 races which is 89.2% Fron Day 1: Won 258 of 299 races which is a 86.2% win rate http://thedogsofkwijebo.blogspot.com/ |
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Stats for Day 14:
Won 21 of 26 races which is 80.7% Made an increase on bank of 5% Stats since Day 1: Have won 279 of 325 races which is 85.8% http://thedogsofkwijebo.blogspot.com/ |
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whats the bank now
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£219.35 from £100 in 14 Days
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do u pick all dogs in morning and then put them in bot. how much study u do
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Pick the first 30 races in the morning - program the bot - go to the shops :)
takes no more than 2 mins per race - there's only so much form to read - pick my selections on interpretation of given form. |
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You are on pace. Well done.
As one that has built a bank in a similar manner, you may prepare yourself for when you need to match larger numbers to "stay on pace" (i.e. after 50 days, you may curve it down a little and target 125 to 150. You'll find it is good for the hair colour and blood pressure ;) ) |
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thanx shape - but even on day 99 my initial lay will only be about £30 - so am well prepared for that as those stakes aren't out of my league.
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Attempting this at level stakes with same bot :)
up + 10 ponts in 3 days , its all about the selections . Well done Kwij :) |
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sorry - points
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cheers sup - ppl always talk about 'an edge' - i guess mine is the interpretation off given form - after 10 days was tempted to just put £2,000 in and go from there but would love to complete this challenge !
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Think you will learn alot more if you complete the challenge :)
Same position really , was really happy with profits over first two days. Gagging to up stakes, but decided to build from starting point. Plus the bot takes the emotion out of it, which is good. May you complete and prosper Kwij :) |
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Kwijibo 09 Sep 17:05
thanx shape - but even on day 99 my initial lay will only be about £30 - so am well prepared for that as those stakes aren't out of my league. My thoughts were based on your recovery. With a loss, it looks like your stakes increase around 6 fold for three bets. Thus even at the earlier "days", if you lay a 5.0 for a £20 gain and it loses, you are down £80. You divide this over three selections (call it £25) You are now laying £45 quid. At 8.0 means a risk of £210.00 If ONE of the next three loses, you see where this can go. I sometimes get criticised on the forum for running my betting like a "business" but find weighing out the risk before the gain keeps me sane. |
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interesting blog , small stakes and already doubled your bank . the bot at under £100 for 6 months seems fair , do you pay any other charges for using it for BF ?
End of the day, i guess its your choice of selections that make or break your bank. GL to you |
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Thanx double8 , in answer , there's no extra charges once you've got the bot.
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WD so far Kwij, I think you must be using the same software I tried a couple of months ago, can't remember which one it was now, but it had a recovery staking plan built in, which one do you use?
It was pretty scary to see what it had laid when recovering! The good thing about a bot is it takes the emotion out of the risk by putting on bets you probably wouldn't risk if you were doing it live. The bad thing is though, that it can risk a bundle and lose it. I tried a similar thing with the one I tried, had set it to lay the 2nd fav on dogs, one losing day wiped out all my profit :-( |
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SHAPESHIFTER
Thus even at the earlier "days", if you lay a 5.0 for a £20 gain and it loses, you are down £80. You divide this over three selections (call it £25) You are now laying £45 quid. At 8.0 means a risk of £210.00 If ONE of the next three loses, you see where this can go. ________________ To counter this, there is an option to set a "maximum loss" for the day. IIRC, the OP's max loss is £5,000 [or, his entire bank] - which is not the smartest move. But if you allow yourself a Loss percentage, [say, 10% bank] - then when that has been hit, the bot will stop placing bets. Its a pretty good way to manage large losses in a recovery plan |
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Fair point Nepp , I don't see a stop loss is the best way forward when yr strike rate is 85% , thats why i go for stop win (so to speak).
On the chance I do hit big losses I belive the way forward is multiple banks , for example: £5k bank - £250 a day (withdrawn daily) As long as you consistantly make 20 days without going bust (which 85% suggests u should) then if (when) u hit a very bad day u just replace bank - my maths isn't great but if u count 20 days as a working month and go bust every 3 months thas still £10k a quarter ? |
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Stats for Day 15:
Won 22 of 24 races which is 91.6% Made a profit of 5.2% Stats from Day 1: Have won 301 of 349 races which is a 86.2% win strike rate. http://thedogsofkwijebo.blogspot.com/ |
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I'm not suggesting what you're doing is bad, Kwij. As you say, you're hitting your targets with relative ease every day, and thats great, I was simply offering a get out to Shapeshifter, with regards to the maximum loss. Which is most definitely something I would include in anything I did.
Also, largely considering getting the bot. What pros / cons are there, if you don't mind, Kwij. |
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i'm lovin this!
i havent got a clue about dogs so not about to jump in, but every day i have a cheeky look at your blog keep it up mate |
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Kwijibo, with your two in a row on Friday, you can see what I was talking about on how things can become "exponential"
If you had been starting at £15 on the first loser, you would have been £30 or so on the next then laying £90 for a 12/1 shot. Alot of work can get sucked off the table. The other thing you will discover with dogs is that inorder to get matched, you'll find inorder to fill, the bot will be reaching up. Plenty of time to plan ahead but I have been down this road building a bank the exact same way. So I've already driven through alot of the potholes that could have been avoided with a little more planning ;) Best of luck. |
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Shape , I see where yr coming from and have re looked at the figures - I'll actually hit £5k after 60 days and was originally going to carry on and hit £13k + after 100 days but due to problems sometimes getting matched for higher amounts - I think once I get to £5k (hopefully) then I'll stick to the same formula 5% a day , but make the last 40 days be 5% of £5k (£250) , which are amounts which should get matched on the dog markets. After 100 days - 60 days to £5k and 40 x £250 - I should hit £10k after 100 days .
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Nepp ,
In my humble opinion , it's a cliche but a robot really does take the emotion out of betting and staking - I've always hit 85% ish on my lays but due to chasing and bad luck I've been known to go busto as well as occasionally winning big. now I just let the program do all the work based on a pre given instruction I gave when I wasn't betting big based on a win / loss on the previous race. As a negative though if a stake doesn't get fully matched , the bot doesn't take that into consideration - it (for example) trys to get £2 matched , it only gets £1.50 matched but if u make a profit on the race it sees it as a successful 'leg' of the recovery system. |
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A mate has given me 5/1 on me getting to £5k from £100 - think i got an absolute bargin !!!!!!
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Stats for Day 16:
Won 23 of 27 races which is 85.1% Made a profit of 5.3% Stats from Day 1: Have won 324 of 376 races which is a 86.1% win strike rate http://thedogsofkwijebo.blogspot.com/ |
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have u layed 3 winners in a row yet
have u layed 2 winners a loser and then another winner yet |
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So far (from memory) Ive had
2 losing bets (the layed selection has won the race) in a row. 3 of 6 losing bets. a loser within 3 races of the last loss then another loser within 3.. 7 losers in a day. Staking and selection process has stood tall and has been counted and with held these problems. |
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Great stuff Kwij, but don't forget that drawing a number from 1 to 6 from the proverbial hat gets you a success rate of 83.3%. The odds are up to you.
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Fair play Al , have thought about this already and if I'm hitting 86% then already I have an 'edge' and with half my lays being under7.0 I therefore have a 'super edge' !!!
;) |
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Stats for Day 1:
Won 23 of 27 races which is 85.1% Made a profit of 5.2% Stats since Day 1: Have won 347 of 403 races which is a 86.1% win strike rate. http://thedogsofkwijebo.blogspot.com/ |
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Did this lose on the 14th?
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where are u kwij. update please
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From his blog (please see my earlier post)
-------------- Well well the 12:39 race brought up an interesting scenario - without doing the exact maths i guess the average odds of my lays is about 6 or 7 to 1. When a big odds selection is in a race we're looking at about 12 , 14 16 to 1 - On my robot I allow selections to be upto 19/1 - today in the 12:39 I had a 19/1 selection (which by the way should finish plum last) and the dog only went and won his race ! Luckily I wasn't on a recovery stake already so my stake was 0.25 of 1% , but as I had to pay out a reletivly large amount my next 3 stakes were quite high , in the 12:57 race (2 races later) , I had another loser (this time at the more respectable 8.5/1) , so for the next 3 I had big liabilitys which I'm not sure I could survive. As it goes I won the next 3 so all was good but was holding my breath for a while. So what did I learn , well first and foremost having a 86% win rate helped as I'm only statistically going to lose 1.5 races from 10 so when I needed 3 in a row they came. Secondly maybe offering 19/1 on a 6 dog race is possibly a tad high , so have changed the settings to go to a maximum 14/1 - this should increase the amount of races I don't bet in as the odds I need to offer will be greater than 14/1 , but if I do have to pay out on a 14/1 shot I'll be paying out more than a percentage point which really adds up when yr staking more on the 'recovery' sections. |