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FOOTBALL AND USING KELLY CALC and IR BETS STEP3

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By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 20 Nov 09 15:49
There are stats available......
By:
lee h2
When: 20 Nov 09 16:31
repeat

you know absolutely nothing about these teams ar this match

you are throwing a dart
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 20 Nov 09 16:55
lee h2 - what is your betting expertise? You never put forward ANY opinion on any sport ....you just guess that I guess!!!!!

Considering this thread is under 8 days old ....on FOOTBALL ...and overall before this match am only a few squid down ....you are just blethering as usual.....

Football: -£9.56 | Horse Racing: £203.57 Total P&L: £194.01

Last 8 days( really only 8 days )
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 20 Nov 09 17:04
Stuck £8 on home team in GAME 13 in match market as they have the slope ( appears to be one) ...and might improve their efforts 2nd half.
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 20 Nov 09 17:05
Also layed UNDER 2.5 goals for further £12 at low cost
By:
lee h2
When: 20 Nov 09 17:12
more darts
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 20 Nov 09 17:12
Layed 0-0 profit now to leave £!5 loss if no goals in that market ...but I believe a goal will be scored ,,,probably 2
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 20 Nov 09 18:11
LOSS on that match .....0-0 final score......

GAME 14 - Marseille v Paris St-G

Will the FRANCE game and also younger players International games take its toll on both teams tonight?

M have a game on 25th against MILAN in CL.......in MILAN......they won't want too hard a game tonight after international matches players been involved in.

PSG seem to draw 1-1 in a few matches and seem to struggle to score more than 1 goal.


Going to take a chance that PSG will try to win this match to move level with M in league......

Likely to be tight match first half ...then PSG may try to win....so MAIN BET DRAW/PSG

BANK : £ 236.24
AVAILABLE ODDS BF : 14.5
PROBABILITY : 7-1 ( 12.50%)
KELLY STAKES INDICATED : 13.40


So bets are
MAIN BET DRAW/ PSG £10
Cover bets PSG/PSG £ 3.40
2-1 M £2
0-0 £2

Also Laying DRAW at HT to gain £15 as a hedge bet......

GL with bets
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 21 Nov 09 10:58
for last night's matches were BAD........I grossly over staked 2 matches and got clobbered both times.......................

GAMES 13 , 14 AND 15

Soccer: -£173.78

GAME 14 LOSS £72.32
Soccer Showing 1 - 14 of 14 markets
Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Soccer / Marseille v Paris St-G : Over/Under 2.5 goals 20-Nov-09 20:00 20-Nov-09 21:53 -20.35
Soccer / Marseille v Paris St-G : Match Odds 20-Nov-09 20:00 20-Nov-09 21:53 -3.12
Soccer / Marseille v Paris St-G : Half Time/Full Time 20-Nov-09 20:00 20-Nov-09 21:53 -22.40
Soccer / Marseille v Paris St-G : Correct Score 20-Nov-09 20:00 20-Nov-09 21:52 -37.48
Soccer / Marseille v Paris St-G : Half Time 20-Nov-09 20:00 20-Nov-09 20:48 11.03


GAME 15 PROFIT £ 3.50
Soccer / Legia Warsaw v Polonia Warsaw : Over/Under 2.5 goals 20-Nov-09 19:00 20-Nov-09 21:00 0.34
Soccer / Legia Warsaw v Polonia Warsaw : Correct Score 20-Nov-09 19:00 20-Nov-09 21:00 5.93
Soccer / Legia Warsaw v Polonia Warsaw : Match Odds 20-Nov-09 19:00 20-Nov-09 20:59 -0.52
Soccer / Legia Warsaw v Polonia Warsaw : Half Time 20-Nov-09 19:00 20-Nov-09 19:53 -2.25


GAME 13 LOSS £ 104.96
Soccer / Rot-Weiss Ahlen v Paderborn : Over/Under 2.5 goals 20-Nov-09 17:00 20-Nov-09 18:52 -21.10
Soccer / Rot-Weiss Ahlen v Paderborn : Half Time/Full Time 20-Nov-09 17:00 20-Nov-09 18:51 -24.46
Soccer / Rot-Weiss Ahlen v Paderborn : Correct Score 20-Nov-09 17:00 20-Nov-09 18:50 -47.40
Soccer / Rot-Weiss Ahlen v Paderborn : Match Odds 20-Nov-09 17:00 20-Nov-09 18:50 -12.00
========================================================


As was only about £ 6 down before yesterday's matches ........YESTERDAY I lost "control of staking" and in 2 of 3 games that was enough to ruin figures.


At the odds I am going for ( generally high odds) I will have LOSSES ....but they should be no where close to such poor control figures.

As for the games chosen......I am "happy" with the MAIN BETS selected.......one of them almost came off , the Rot-Weiss Ahlen game where the home team hardly touched ball whole of 1st half ( they dominated most of play 2nd half but could not score) but they still had 3 chances to take lead 1st half.......so it was a close one IMO on the MAIN BET almost coming off AT HIGH ODDS ). I suspect lee h2's post niggled me a bit, on that match and possibly in next 2 games too.......and this contributed to the LARGE LOSS.
===================================================

lee h2- You say that I am just "guessing" on football matches......and this is basically true........... However, we are talking about FOOTBALL MATCHES which most of the time most people ...INCLUDING YOU ( IF YOU EVER BET ON ANYTHING)......GUESS ON.

Horse racing involves far more skill and knowledge IMO....and I know I have edge/s there........but even with edges you still have a "guess" element to any bet chosen with that sport to.

As I said above , I was "happy" with MAIN BETS selected that lost last night........as ,based on stats and the way matches can go at this point in season, the bets were worth a try at the HIGH ODDS. Of course HIGH ODDS bets generally mean I will lose more often than I will win....BUT I SHOULD NOT HAVE LOST SO MUCH ...THAT WAS DOWN TO BAD MONEY MANAGEMENT.

So i will continue this thread as I do believe i will "get it right" eventually...........the losses sustained on FOOTBALL have been subsidised by my HORSE RACING PROFITS over same period ( only started betting recently to get "up to date" on current racing with small stakes ...starting BANK was £150 .......so ,as it is still in profit over all by £16 approx, I am putting last night down to a LOSS OF CONTROL OVER MONEY MANAGEMENT ON FOOTBALL BETS......not the games chosen or main bets selected.

Horse Racing: £203.57 | Soccer: -£183.34 Total P&L: £20.23


The difference is down to TOTE bets.

So away to select a game for GAME 16.

GL with bets
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 21 Nov 09 11:06
GAME 16 - Liverpool v Man City

Thought I'd pick a straightforward match ]:)

As LIV are under huge pressure to win this match.........I think the game will suit MAN CITY.

the value is in MC/MC and DRAW/MC..............so main bet is MC/MC.

BANK : £167.42
ODDS AVAILABLE BF : 9.6
PROBABILITY : 4-1 ( 20%)
KELLY STAKES INDICATED : £17.09


So MAIN BET MAN CITY/MAN CITY £ 12
cover bet DRAW/MAN CITY £3.09
cover bet 2-1 LIV. £2
cover bet 0-0 £2



Gl with bets
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 21 Nov 09 13:46
I sometimes wonder if i am just fated to lose on this thread.......

Had a good position at 1-1 .....as DRAW/MC and 2-1 LIV.......

Started to watch a long race......with sound on race ...but not on football.....and 2 goals within 1 min and I LOSE on a match that a goal for either side and I was in profit......................:(

My own fault I know.....but annoying all the same..............
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 21 Nov 09 14:02
GAME 17 Aston Villa/Aston Villa


£8 on AV/AV



GAME 18 SPURS v WIGAN

£6 on WIGAN
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 21 Nov 09 14:17
GAME 18 - BIRM v FULHAM

£6 on FULHAM
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 21 Nov 09 14:18
Timing is everything :D 1-0 BIRM :(
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 21 Nov 09 15:10
GAME 19- Sunderland v Arsenal

£4 on SUNDERLAND
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 21 Nov 09 15:21
GAME 20 - Bologna v Inter

Bologna/Bologna £ 4 main bet at 12s
Draw/Bologna 14.5 £2.00 £27.00

Draw/Inter 4.9 £2.00 £7.80
0-0 £2
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 21 Nov 09 15:32
GAME 19- Sunderland v Arsenal

£4 on SUNDERLAND


Currently 11-0 so all green on that one...only game so far :(
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 21 Nov 09 15:40
GAME 21 Hull City VWest Ham United currently 3-3

LAY DRAW to gain £8
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 21 Nov 09 15:48
GAME 17 Aston Villa/Aston Villa


£8 on AV/AV


Now 1-1 so as I layed BURNLEY when 1-0 up ...now about break-even on this one...another goal by AV and into good profit
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 21 Nov 09 15:54
GAME 18 - BIRM v FULHAM

£6 on FULHAM


lost £12 on this match...
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 21 Nov 09 16:05
GAME 22- Man Utd v Everton

4.4 £2.00 £6.80
Bet matched:17:04 21-Nov-09

Draw/Everton 26 £2.00 £50.00
Bet matched:17:04 21-Nov-09

Everton/Everton 23 £3.00 £66.00 MAIN BET
Bet matched:17:04 21-Nov-09
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 21 Nov 09 16:07
Plus £2 on 0-0 in G22
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 21 Nov 09 16:57
Feeling really jinxed today with football bets!


Was trying to access the HT DRAW to lay it in ITER match.....and my computer froze.........just could not access anything.....had to switch off and restart etc ...by then INTER score a goal ....so I lose on that match.....................

TWICE today freak things have happened and cost me twice..........


Need EVERTON to get first goal ......might happen yet.
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 21 Nov 09 17:05
GAME 23 Fiorentina v Parma

FIORENTINA have a CL game on 24.11.09 and it will be a tough match.........a DRAW here might be OK for them.

PARMA might grab first goal so going for -

Draw/Fiorentina 5.1 £2.00 £8.20
Ref: 9496174961 Bet matched:18:01 21-Nov-09

Draw/Parma 13 £2.00 £24.00
Ref: 9496173020 Bet matched:18:01 21-Nov-09

Parma/Parma 10.5 £6.00 £57.00 MAIN BET

Also covering 0-0 £2
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 21 Nov 09 17:06
MU take lead ..............oh well that looks like another game lost................will put a back bet on 2-1 £2
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 21 Nov 09 23:29
RESULTS FOR TODAY

Football: -£18.07 | Horse Racing: £52.34 Total P&L: £34.27


Football Showing 1 - 20 of 36 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Atletico-PR v Cruzeiro : Over/Under 2.5 goals 21-Nov-09 21:30 21-Nov-09 23:25 -12.22
Football / Atletico-PR v Cruzeiro : Correct Score 21-Nov-09 21:30 21-Nov-09 23:25 15.98
Football / Ath Bilbao v Barcelona : Over/Under 2.5 goals 21-Nov-09 21:00 21-Nov-09 22:53 16.74
Football / Ath Bilbao v Barcelona : Half Time/Full Time 21-Nov-09 21:00 21-Nov-09 22:52 -8.00
Football / Ath Bilbao v Barcelona : Correct Score 21-Nov-09 21:00 21-Nov-09 22:52 -2.00
Football / Ath Bilbao v Barcelona : Match Odds 21-Nov-09 21:00 21-Nov-09 22:52 0.89
Football / Atletico-PR v Cruzeiro : Half Time 21-Nov-09 21:30 21-Nov-09 22:18 -3.69
Football / Auxerre v Monaco : Over/Under 2.5 goals 21-Nov-09 20:00 21-Nov-09 21:53 -3.00
Football / Auxerre v Monaco : Half Time/Full Time 21-Nov-09 20:00 21-Nov-09 21:53 2.28
Football / Auxerre v Monaco : Correct Score 21-Nov-09 20:00 21-Nov-09 21:52 4.18
Football / Auxerre v Monaco : Match Odds 21-Nov-09 20:00 21-Nov-09 21:52 -0.60
Football / Ath Bilbao v Barcelona : Half Time Score 21-Nov-09 21:00 21-Nov-09 21:47 -6.00
Football / Fiorentina v Parma : Half Time/Full Time 21-Nov-09 19:45 21-Nov-09 21:47 15.22
Football / Fiorentina v Parma : Correct Score 21-Nov-09 19:45 21-Nov-09 21:47 -6.72
Football / Fiorentina v Parma : Match Odds 21-Nov-09 19:45 21-Nov-09 21:44 -7.06
Football / Fiorentina v Parma : Over/Under 2.5 goals 21-Nov-09 19:45 21-Nov-09 21:00 12.55
Football / Auxerre v Monaco : Half Time 21-Nov-09 20:00 21-Nov-09 20:47 30.43
Football / Man Utd v Everton : Half Time/Full Time 21-Nov-09 17:30 21-Nov-09 19:26 -7.00
Football / Man Utd v Everton : Correct Score 21-Nov-09 17:30 21-Nov-09 19:25 -4.38
Football / Man Utd v Everton : Match Odds 21-Nov-09 17:30 21-Nov-09 19:24 -1.92

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Dortmund v Mainz : Match Odds 21-Nov-09 17:30 21-Nov-09 19:23 -7.66
Football / Ipswich v Sheff Wed : Match Odds 21-Nov-09 17:20 21-Nov-09 19:13 -2.48
Football / Bologna v Inter : Half Time/Full Time 21-Nov-09 17:00 21-Nov-09 18:57 -8.00
Football / Bologna v Inter : Correct Score 21-Nov-09 17:00 21-Nov-09 18:56 4.32
Football / Bologna v Inter : Match Odds 21-Nov-09 17:00 21-Nov-09 18:55 -2.00
Football / Birmingham v Fulham : Correct Score 21-Nov-09 15:00 21-Nov-09 16:58 -2.00
Football / Birmingham v Fulham : Match Odds 21-Nov-09 15:00 21-Nov-09 16:57 -10.68
Football / Hull v West Ham : Match Odds 21-Nov-09 15:00 21-Nov-09 16:55 -6.00
Football / Sunderland v Arsenal : Match Odds 21-Nov-09 15:00 21-Nov-09 16:55 10.92
Football / Burnley v Aston Villa : Half Time/Full Time 21-Nov-09 15:00 21-Nov-09 16:55 -8.00
Football / Burnley v Aston Villa : Correct Score 21-Nov-09 15:00 21-Nov-09 16:54 -2.00
Football / Burnley v Aston Villa : Match Odds 21-Nov-09 15:00 21-Nov-09 16:53 7.08
Football / Liverpool v Man City : Correct Score 21-Nov-09 12:45 21-Nov-09 14:47 -7.00
Football / Liverpool v Man City : Half Time/Full Time 21-Nov-09 12:45 21-Nov-09 14:47 -15.09
Football / Liverpool v Man City : Match Odds 21-Nov-09 12:45 21-Nov-09 14:45 -0.60
Football / Liverpool v Man City : Half Time 21-Nov-09 12:45 21-Nov-09 13:39 -4.56
====================================================

As I said earlier, hada couple freak incidents today with FOOTBALL BETTING.....one was the LIVERPOOL game where lost £27.25 due to turning sound off game and watching a long distance chase race when it was 1-1 and had a goal for either side giving me profit....BUT THERE WERE 2 GOALS IN A MINUTE......and when I turned around to check game after race over ....it was 2-2 ...so loss incurred instead of a profit.

The other freak incident was my computer screen freezing when I was about to lay HT DRAW in a game .......had to swith computer off and restart it....and of course by time got into markets a goal was scored right before HT ....meaning I lost on a game where would have won on again.

PARMA were close to taking lead against FIORENTINA in 1st half....but missed clearly best chance of half near HT.................so very close to good return there......but not to be.

Horse racing again subsidising FOOTBALL bets ...but i will continue with thread, as the discipline of posting RESULTS here might keep the urge to over stake in check.
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 21 Nov 09 23:31
So far with football -

16.11.09 GAME 1 - Bray v Sporting Fingal ..............................................PROFIT £ 40.00
17.11.09 GAME 2 - Slovakia v Chile .........................................................PROFIT 13.37
17.11.09 GAME 3- Netherlands v Spain......................................................PROFIT 1.10
17.11.09 GAME 4- Northern Ireland U21 v Czech Republic U21 ...................PROFIT 7.36
18.11.09 GAME 5 - Poland v Canada ......................................................LOSS ( 24.91 )
18.11.09 GAME 6- Ukraine v Greece .......................................................LOSS ( 19.57)
18.11.09 GAME 7- France v ROI ............................................................LOSS ( 73.06 )
18.11.09 GAME 8- Fluminense RJ v Cerro Porteno ..................................PROFIT 57.15
18.11.09 GAME 9- Uruaguay v Costa Rica..............................................LOSS ( 21.06 )
19.11.09 GAME 10-Astra Ploiesti v Dinamo Bucharest ............................PROFIT 8.11
19.11.09 GAME 11-Wales U16 v N Ireland U16 ......................................PROFIT 4.93
19.11.09 GAME 12- LDU v River Plate (Uru)............................................LOSS ( 8.16 )
20.11.09 GAME 13-Rot-Weiss Ahlen v Paderborn................................LOSS ( 104.96 )
20.11.09 GAME 14- Marseille v Paris St - G..........................................LOSS ( 72.32 )
20.11.09 GAME 15 -Legia Warsaw v Polonia Warsaw ...........................PROFIT 3.50
21.11.09 GAME 16 - Liverpool v Man City..............................................LOSS ( 27.25 )
21.11.09 GAME 17-Burnley v Aston Villa .............................................LOSS ( 17.08 )
21.11.09 GAME 18-Birmingham v Fulham .............................................LOSS ( 12.68 ).
21.11.09 GAME 19- Sunderland v Arsenal ............................................PROFIT 10.92
21.11.09 GAME 20-Bologna v Inter Milan.................................................LOSS ( 5.68 )
21.11.09 GAME 21- Hull v West Ham Utd .............................................LOSS ( 6.00 )
21.11.09 GAME 22-Man Utd v Everton.................................................LOSS ( 13.30 )
21.11.09 GAME 23- Fiorentina v Parma .............................................PROFIT 13.99
21.11.09 GAME 24-Ipswitch v Sheffield Wednesday..............................LOSS ( 2.48 )
21.11.09 GAME 25-Dortmund v Mainz..................................................LOSS ( 7.66 )
21.11.09 GAME 26 -Auxerre v Monaco................................................PROFIT 33.29
21.11.09 GAME 27-Ath Bilbao v Barcelona...........................................PROFIT 1.63
21.11.09 GAME 28- Athletico PR v Cruzeiro ........................................PROFIT 3.76


TOTAL LOSS ON FOOTBALL BETS SO FAR = £ ( 217.06 )
By:
lee h2
When: 22 Nov 09 13:59
add to list of excuses.

'I turned the sound down'
'I posted early and missed the best price'
'lee h thread annoyed me'
'i haven**ched much racing lately'
'I overstaked'
'I understaked'
' i lost too much in running'
'I should have put a lay up in running'


etc etc etc etc
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 22 Nov 09 16:01
lee h2 - Why is it you pester me all the time on the HORSE RACING thread ......and when I am in profit on HORSE RACING on current thread ( using money) and on ATTEMPT 2 thread re using paper bank............................you decide to chicken out and post on the FOOTBALL thread wher there is a loss position........which I already know about??????


You are just an person of no character....... who has lied often on other threads ....never reads any of threads re horse racing ....never answers questions as to what the fk they are "good at" ....just lurks in the shadows and avoids the POSITION NOW ON HORSE RACING THREAD WHERE A PROFIT IS SHOWN???????

So when you grow testicles perhaps you will be man enough to come onto horse racing thread where there is a clear profit shown over 11 days..........plus there was over 1,000 points profit on paer bank ATTEMPT 2 thread...................................YOU ALWAYS DISAPPEAR INTO THE MURKY SHADOWS WHEN THERE IS A PROFIT ON THREADS ....DON'T YOU????????
By:
lee h2
When: 22 Nov 09 17:09
calm down DFC!!!

All your previous attempts at this (horses and football) have all ended with you going skint!

I hope this one doesn't but you are such a chaser that one bad day will seal your fate!!!

GL to you
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