Not my or ROI's day .............HENRY a cheeeeeeeeeeeeettttttttttttttttttttttttttttttt

HENRY has been a very very poor player for a couple of years ...and tonight he showed how low he has fallen !!!!!!

GAME 8 - Fluminense RJ v Cerro Porteno

Watched 1st leg last week and home team are 1 goal up from first leg.

They don't appear to be a team that would hold back and keep game tight 1st half......I think home team will go for kill early ....so Fluminense RJ / Fluminense RJ will be my main bet.

GAME 8 RESULT

Soccer: £36.09 Total P&L: £36.09

Soccer Showing 1 - 3 of 3 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Soccer / Fluminense RJ v Cerro Porteno : Half Time/Full Time 18-Nov-09 23:50 19-Nov-09 01:57 -6.00
Soccer / Fluminense RJ v Cerro Porteno : Correct Score 18-Nov-09 23:50 19-Nov-09 01:56 63.15
Soccer / Uruguay v Costa Rica : Correct Score 18-Nov-09 23:00 19-Nov-09 01:02 -21.06


Was very very lucky to get away with a profit.................................and my discipline went again.

Had had 3 other games where I layed a 1 goal lead go against me and decided that, as I never covered AWAY TEAM/DRAW ( Had AWAY/AWAY and AWAY/HOME covered only) that I was going to incur a £75 loss if it went and stayed at 1-1.....probably.

So I layed 0-1 once ......then when odds went down I layed it again....to reduce the loss if 1-1 by £50.........and if another goal would make a profit.........but my exposure on 0-1 was £!50..........BASICALLY LOST CONTROL AGAIN.........................

Football is always the hardest sport for me to control the urge to RISK TOO MUCH for TOO LITTLE....and perhaps I should stop this thread . However, I will persist and try to keep the chase demons away......................as I need to improve on football bets.

I will try to keep within KELLY STAKING .....perhaps go to 33% of FULL KELLY STAKES ...not sure ...will see how I feel today later on.

Will post cumulative position later today.

G M the nooooooooooooooo

So far with football -

16.11.09 GAME 1 - Bray v Sporting Fingal ...............................................PROFIT £ 40.00
17.11.09 GAME 2 - Slovakia v Chile .........................................................PROFIT 13.37
17.11.09 GAME 3- Netherlands v Spain......................................................PROFIT 1.10
17.11.09 GAME 4- Northern Ireland U21 v Czech Republic U21 .......................PROFIT 7.36
18.11.09 GAME 5 - Poland v Canada ..................................................LOSS ( 24.91 )
18.11.09 GAME 6- Ukraine v Greece ................................................LOSS ( 19.57)
18.11.09 GAME 7- France v ROI ....................................................LOSS ( 73.06 )
18.11.09 GAME 8- Fluminense RJ v Cerro Porteno ..................................PROFIT 57.15
18.11.09 GAME 9- Uruaguay v Costa Rica...........................................LOSS ( 21.06 )
------------
CUMULATIVE NET LOSS ON FOOTBALL ON THREAD .....................................£ ( 19.62 )


Had I not layed ROI before they score I would be well in profit.....so my initial bet was "right" ....just IP bets went haywire !!!!


CLOSING BANK TODAY AFTER HORSE RACES AND FOOTBALL £ 383.53

Another hedge bet with £2 on 0-0 ...............as it is a cup tie and they can be tight affairs.....

1-1 ..that was quick! A penalty for home side...

GAME 11 - [b]Wales U16 v N Ireland U16[/b]

A VICTORY SHIELD match......

Not sure whether 80 mins or 90....assuming 90.

WALES youngsters playing very well these days so likelt they will score at least 2.......


MAIN BET WALES/WALES

AVAILABLE ODDS BF : 3.55
PROBABILITY : 2-1 ( 33.33 %)
KELLY STAKES INDICATED : 30.13


So main bet WALES/WALES £18
cover bet DRAW/WALES £3
NI/NI £2
0-0 £2

link game 10

http://www.sport.ro/live/ibu3.html

GAME 11 - 1-0 WALES

So laying a chunk of profit off and hoping they get to HT then wil be in good position if NI equalise which in the conditions can happen ....

It is an 80 min game ....game 11

GAME 12 - LDU v River Plate (Uru)

RP won 1st leg 2-1 at home.

So RP in a precarious position if home team takes lead....as 1-0 does them to go through.

RP are a strange team though ...their league performances are very ordinary.....they seem to be just going for this CUP SUDAMERICANA................................

If they sit back they might be asking for trouble.......so they are better to go out and be positive from start to get another goal ....then they can defend lead. This is what I think they might do.

The home team may let RP run about a lot 1st half.....as they know that 2nd half they will feel effects of playing at altitude..............

So DRAW /LDU is main bet



AVAILABLE BANK just now : 464
AVAILABLE BF ODDS : 4.9
PROBABILITY : 3-1 ( 25%)
KELLY STAKES INDICATED : 22.07

So bets are :

DRAW/LDU £12 MAIN BET
Cover bets
RP/RP £2
RP/DRAW £2
RP/LDU £2
0-0 £2

HT LAYING 0-0 TO A COST OF £15 to gain £4 ( the 0-0 bet above helps with this position)
HT 2-0 LDU £2
HT AUQ £2
=====================================

1-0 HT will be a loss position ...but will take a chance as made about £13 profit today on footy....and hopefully I have the tactics right for both teams..................RP SCORING in first half would be perfect start.


GL with bets

2-0 LDU before HT so far ....so might at least just lose a wee bit ....might make a profit yet???

Taking a chance and risking some of 2-0 profit to get profit for either team to score befoer HT

If it goes 25 mins into 2nd half then I might reduce loss ...but I have to risk more to do so.....by laying again AUQ :D

4-0 good timing :D

So far with football -

16.11.09 GAME 1 - Bray v Sporting Fingal ...............................................PROFIT £ 40.00
17.11.09 GAME 2 - Slovakia v Chile .........................................................PROFIT 13.37
17.11.09 GAME 3- Netherlands v Spain......................................................PROFIT 1.10
17.11.09 GAME 4- Northern Ireland U21 v Czech Republic U21 .......................PROFIT 7.36
18.11.09 GAME 5 - Poland v Canada ..................................................LOSS ( 24.91 )
18.11.09 GAME 6- Ukraine v Greece ................................................LOSS ( 19.57)
18.11.09 GAME 7- France v ROI ....................................................LOSS ( 73.06 )
18.11.09 GAME 8- Fluminense RJ v Cerro Porteno ..................................PROFIT 57.15
18.11.09 GAME 9- Uruaguay v Costa Rica...........................................LOSS ( 21.06 )
19.11.09 GAME 10-Astra Ploiesti v Dinamo Bucharest .........................PROFIT 8.11
19.11.09 GAME 11-Wales U16 v N Ireland U16 ..................................PROFIT 4.93
19.11.09 GAME 12- LDU v River Plate (Uru)........................................LOSS ( 8.16 )
------------....................................................................................................
CUMULATIVE NET LOSS ON FOOTBALL ON THREAD .....................................£ ( 14.74)

My guess on first two games yesterday were good guesses....but I chickened out like ROI game again and never reaped rewards for good selected bets.

Really have to let bets stand without hedging bets.....otherwise will not make decent profit at this.

G M the noooooooooo

tobermory 20 Nov 01:48
DFC , you have said a few times that your main problem is staking , but surely a bigger problem is your inability to be selective , as you seem to be attracted by a bet in almost every race/match that comes along ?

Not meaning to be unfairly critical btw , as i think you do pick out some very good bets, particulary at the higher odds , and often with good reasoning posted. I just doubt that there will be a clear value bet in 90 odd % of markets and if so your good winners are always likely to be swamped by losses in races/matches you should have left alone .
=======================================================

Morning tobermory. Thanks for your constructive post.

I'm not so sure there is not "value" bets in almost every race , as that is where my "edge" lies. If you check the KELLY CALC HORSE RACING thread where I have been using money, I have been ignoring races which I can't get a selection by just glancing at race card.

The races I have been selecting on that thread ( as ATTEMPT 1 was "every race" just to get me back up to speed on how races were being run currently.....as been not watching races much from about August 2008 til recently.....ATTEMPT 2 was more selective but still tackling many races but getting good odds winners eg 50-1 SP at odds 90 on here etc and many other winners in range 8-1 upwards.......) are IMO up to a high standard re how well generally selections have fared and number of winners at good odds.

I have left out many races on the current KELLY HORSES thread that I know I could find a value bet in, but, as I know it would take me say 10 to 15 minutes to decide which one should be selected, I just leave out as there are plenty races that can be glanced at and suitable selection found at value odds IMO etc.

There are some race that I know should be left alone , for numerous reasons, and that is what I have been doing on current HORSES thread.

As for FOOTBALL matches, I know my "edge" is non-existent for specific teams/players , but I feel I am "good" on understanding the psychology in certain types of matches , and of how players/teams are likely to play based on the stats . Also I believe I am "good" on recogising odds that are too high or too low..............no matter what game it is.

I am "footering aboot" on this thread re FOOTBALL matches, and have only singled out games that I believe there is "value" in a bet...............I know many say don't bet on friendlies /under 16 matches etc etc but I think occasionally there are such games like last night where some "value" was found ( in out of 3 my guess on what might happen happened......but I fiddled about and ended up with a very small return considering was "right" on 2 out of 3.)

The reason for tacking so many matches on this thread was to get used to using the KELLY STAKING CALCULATOR and to test myself on the guess on probability of outcomes. I agree I could have cut down on number of games on this thread.......but feel I have gained a "feel" for using the calculator on DIFFICULT GAMES . I'm a great believer that in DIFFICULT GAMES the "best" value lies...............

What I am discovering more and more about MYSELF on THIS THREAD with football is that I should just select the bet and let it stand without "footering aboot" ! I think some bets IP are warranted though but they should only be to protect the main bet. I admit i am still torn between letting a main bet stand and taking action to go all green etc.............

I've only selected 12 games on this thread and the ROI game alone would have given an over all large profit HAD I BET FULL KELLY STAKES ON! I know that was an exceptional game for odds.....as layers were just well wrong on their weighing up of ROI chances etc.

On both the ROI game and WALES game, last night, I did STUPID lays against the main bet in 1st half...........I probably should go to pub and leave bets to stand til their is value in taking action to go all green when the bet position arises in game.

I agree that I am dabbling in TOO MANY MARKETS in ONE GAME.............hedging too much .....I should let bet stand until it arises THEN TAKE ACTION .......or until odds have dropped down to value level for laying off some profit etc.

So I know you are "right" on football bets and from now on I will be :-

1. Having a MAIN bet and letting it stand .
2. Only doing 1/2 bets to hedge main bet or to exploit value odds that might happen IMO etc.
3. NOT GOING AGAINST MAIN BET .

Was thinking about what i should do on THIS THREAD so I will be more selective with bets on this thread.......................hopefully I can control the urges to "dabble" IP etc...............

Away for breakfast ..................................Thanks again for pointing me in "right" direction....much appreciated.

GL with bets .

Sorry tobermory that should read -

15 winning bets out of 50 main selections.......

1 game 5 bets already.

on teams you know absolutely nothing about.

this is dart throwing!