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FOOTBALL AND USING KELLY CALC and IR BETS STEP3

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Replies: 189
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 18 Nov 09 14:49
Also laying DRAW at HT to gain £12 .....................hopefully one of em scores ...then should be in position to trade to profit ...I think ]:) have 0-0 as cover for part of this cost etc
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 18 Nov 09 15:29
The lay on HT DRAW has kicked in with it being 1-0 POLAND ....so approximately break-even no matter what......................as I expect POLAND now to win this as they are a physically more powerful team.

Still have CS bets ...and they might give profit yet.
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 18 Nov 09 15:31
Layed POLAND in match market to gain £12 to protect HT/FT position........
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 18 Nov 09 15:40
Backed ANY UNQUTED for £2 as game could head that way yet ...my 3-0 might be wht it finishes though
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 18 Nov 09 15:47
Stuck £2 on Match DRAW ...as you never know how this might go....
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 18 Nov 09 15:51
1-0 HT

Made an £8.88 profit less commission on that which will offset against other bets.

Will lose £7 if stays 1-0.

2-0 I break even

1-1 same

2-1, 2-2, 3-0 or AUQ will give a profit .....still likely 3-0 final score
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 18 Nov 09 16:06
GAME 6 Ukraine v Greece


First leg was a DRAW 0-0 in GREECE......so an away goal imporant here for GREECE....

This might make UK play a bit more safely first half .....so my main bet will be DRAW/UK.



CURRENT BANK : £ 440.66 with GAME 5 still to finish

AVAILABLE ODDS ON MAIN BET : 4.8 ( BF)
PROBABILITY : 3-1 ( 25% )
STAKE INDICATED : 18.62



So MAIN BET : DRAW/UKR £6

Cover bets:
UK/UK £2
GREECE/GREECE £2 .............................in case they score "shock" goal first half first.
CS BACKS all for £2 0-0/1-0/2-1/1-1

Likely a tight game first half........but DRAW in HT market is lowish so have set a lay at 1.65 in case a goal first half .........

GL with bets
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 18 Nov 09 16:28
GAME 5 ...... POLAND v CANADA

Laying 1-0 to reduce other scores loss or in crease profit by £6.....as expect 1 more goal at least.
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 18 Nov 09 16:29
Will be expensive if no goal scored ...but that is football betting...........
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 18 Nov 09 16:39
Laying 1-0 again to get £6 ...
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 18 Nov 09 17:01
GAME 5 POLAND v CANADA

Was a loss ........Dabbling after HT result cost me the money .....of course hada goal been scored by either side then would be in profit.....so a chance I took and never paid off.



Football: -£24.91 LOSS GAME 5


Football Showing 1 - 4 of 4 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Poland v Canada : Correct Score 18-Nov-09 16:00 18-Nov-09 17:57 -23.90
Football / Poland v Canada : Half Time/Full Time 18-Nov-09 16:00 18-Nov-09 17:56 -2.54
Football / Poland v Canada : Match Odds 18-Nov-09 16:00 18-Nov-09 17:54 -6.91
Football / Poland v Canada : Half Time 18-Nov-09 16:00 18-Nov-09 16:49 8.44
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 18 Nov 09 17:35
GAME 6


0-1 GREECE


SO HT DRAW lay paid off + GREECE/GREECE bet


So now laying GREECE in match market and putting on DRAW at HT to nullify loss on ht DRAW.

Hoping for equaliser before HT
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 18 Nov 09 17:38
Stuck £2 on 1-2 GREECE ....might come into play ....so sitting with loss on 0-1.....but have 1-1 /2-1/1-2 covered ......fair chance another goal
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 18 Nov 09 17:53
So profit on HT due to lay on DRAW ...roughly £10.

Not sure how this game will pan out.........UK have missed a couple chances ...and GREECE are a strong defensive team ...the game now suits them. They might even score again to make it 0-2 ...so covered that too.

Need a goal from 1 or em.....preferably to go to 1-1 for a while then another profit can be made.

could finish 1-1 or 2-1 or 1-2 now ....my guess at this stage is 1-1
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 18 Nov 09 17:57
Taking another chance of goal being scored ...by setting a lay on CS 0-1 to gain £6 at 2s....if goal scored !

Will make overall loss of £8 if stays 0-1............
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 18 Nov 09 18:11
GAME 7 - FRANCE V ROI

FRANCE won 1st leg 0-1 in ROI...................so ROI MUST score a goal.....

ROI likely to have a go early to try to score.................but will French let them?

Will take a chance on ROI taking lead 1st half....so main bet is ROI/ROI.



CURRENT BANK : £ 408.10 with GAME 6 still to finish

AVAILABLE ODDS ON MAIN BET : 19 ( BF)
PROBABILITY : 91 ( 10% )
STAKE INDICATED : 19.14


So MAIN bet ROI/ROI £6

Cover bets
DRAW/ROI £2
DRAW/DRAW £2
DRAW/FRANCE £2

CS BACKS all £2 on 2-0/0-0// 2-1

GL with bets
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 18 Nov 09 18:13
Also laying DRAW at Ht to gain £12 in GAME 7 FRANCE v ROI..............as feel a goal will be scored ...and it could be by FRENCH .....hopefully it is the Irish though :D
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 18 Nov 09 18:16
GAME 6 ....moved up the lay on 0-1 to 3s to gain £6 if goal scored .....may happen
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 18 Nov 09 18:19
GAME 6 laying UNDER 2.5 goals ...to cover £6 loss on CSs not covered that have liability...game could well come to life ...if a goal scored then a profit should be made.
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 18 Nov 09 18:36
layed UNDER 2.5 goals again for another £8 ....need 1 goal
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 18 Nov 09 18:55
Goals not coming in two games...UKRAINE were very very poor in that match...and GREECE were their usual boring defensive selves.

Another loss on GAME 6
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 18 Nov 09 19:06
GAME 6 LOSS on UKRAINE v GREECE

Soccer: -£19.57

Soccer Showing 1 - 9 of 9 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Soccer / Ukraine v Greece : Over/Under 2.5 goals 18-Nov-09 18:00 18-Nov-09 20:02 -3.78
Soccer / Ukraine v Greece : Half Time/Full Time 18-Nov-09 18:00 18-Nov-09 20:01 10.46
Soccer / Ukraine v Greece : Correct Score 18-Nov-09 18:00 18-Nov-09 20:00 -24.00
Soccer / Ukraine v Greece : Match Odds 18-Nov-09 18:00 18-Nov-09 19:54 -11.76
Soccer / Ukraine v Greece : Half Time 18-Nov-09 18:00 18-Nov-09 18:51 9.51
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 18 Nov 09 19:20
GAME 7 using the HT/FT potential profit on ROI/ROI to lay ROI in Match market for £10....
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 18 Nov 09 19:29
ROI odds are drifting IN........normally drift out....shows how well ROI playing.....come on ROI
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 18 Nov 09 19:38
Pity I layed ROI before they scored ......DRATTTTTTTTTTT .....

Have layed ROI in Ht market to gain £14 profit on HT DRAW ....also layed ROI again im match market ...leaving some profit on ROI/ROI left
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 18 Nov 09 19:43
Layed all the profit off on ROI at Ht and sitting with potential £40 profit if level HT.
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 18 Nov 09 19:51
Initial main bet was "right" at the odds .....ROI/ROI ......but i chickened out the bet IP by laying ROI at 7.8.....for £10.....DRATTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT so near getting it "right".


Now have £40 profit if ROI win match .........but will they hang on??????

Will gamble on them doing so for 15 mins......then will lay some off to go all green.....

Kicking myself as there was £101 profit on ROI/ROI at start "!!!!!!!
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 18 Nov 09 19:54
Have set a lay on ROI to gain £16 at low odds in match market.......................tempted to fully lay ROI now............but they are a brave side who will fight and make it tough for FRENCH ..........hope ref is strong as they will dive IMO for penalty 2nd half...............
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 18 Nov 09 19:56
Would have been £50 profit on this match had I NOT layed the potential profit off on ROI/ROI......

Oh well a close one.......
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 18 Nov 09 20:04
Taking yet another chance that I am "right" on ROI being tired 2nd half...like the first leg match the FRENCH dominated 2nd half .....so laying all £40 profit off ROI ......to sit with £40 on DRAW or FRANCE.....Think that is "correct" move nowwwwwwwwwwwww
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 18 Nov 09 20:06
and laying 0-1 ......to gain £12 ......................a dodgy move ...but feel it is right move. NOW
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 18 Nov 09 20:12
Think my "tired" thing today has cost me a helafalot!!!!!!!

Was "right" on value of ROI/ROI......but made some wrong moves IP......now could end up with £45 loss on a match ...well over the stakes total indicated by KC ..............................:(
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 18 Nov 09 20:14
The 3rd game in a row where I am waiting for 1 goal to turn position in favour............need that wee bit LUCK now.
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 18 Nov 09 20:22
Forget the money ....COME ON ROIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII :D
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 18 Nov 09 20:33
0-2 will do...come on ROIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 18 Nov 09 20:34
Stuck £2 on 1-2
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 18 Nov 09 20:56
WD ROI ....poor play from me ....losing £50 approx on a game where my main bet at value was "right" .......... :(


Been a horrible day through bad decisions ......was £50 on horses til last 4 races and chucked that away today .......

3 times took a chance on a goal ...in 3 games ...and all 3 stayed just 1 goal in it!

Losing over all today £90 when could have been £140 up.........................bad decisions costing me dearly!!!!!
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 18 Nov 09 20:57
FRANCE still likely to qualify ...but don't like odds...so no bet
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 18 Nov 09 21:00
Oh to hell come on ROI ...layed FRANCE to gain £24
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 18 Nov 09 21:06
PENALTIES they have a good chance with ROI keeper .....best chance probably
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