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FOOTBALL AND USING KELLY CALC and IR BETS STEP3

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By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 17 Nov 09 15:13
Already 0-1 CHILE so laying CHILE in HT market to eliminate loss on HT DRAW lay.....hoping it is 1-1 HT
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 17 Nov 09 15:19
1-1 ...so will now lay HT DRAW again
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 17 Nov 09 15:24
Too slow in HT market laying DRAW ...so backed CHILE in HT market with £3 ....so profit if either wins HT...and loss £4 if DRAW is cost to protect DRAW/CHILE ...the main bet


Also have 1-1 and 2-1 covered at start in CS market ...so reasonable position IF stays DRAW at HT
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 17 Nov 09 15:27
link for game if anyone interested -

http://www.iraqgoals.net/ch2.html
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 17 Nov 09 15:32
Have set up another lay on HT DRAW to gain another £9 if either win at HT.....hoping it takes
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 17 Nov 09 15:41
lay taken on HT DRAW ...so any of em winning at HT gives over all profit
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 17 Nov 09 15:49
DRAW HT ....so a good position on match for main bet to come into play ...if happens ...DRAW/CHILE......
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 17 Nov 09 15:55
Stuck £3 on 1-1 .....and now sitting on position where

1-1 profit £18
2-1 PROFIT £17 ......which would have to lay if score happens to quickly

and main bet DRAW/CHILE with £ 36.40 profit to use if they take lead.


LOST £9 in HT market so far.......................

The longer it stays at 1-1 the better for position......

CHILE strong in pssession football....and are trying to win this match by looks of it.

SLOV best chance is high balls into box from set pieces against the diminutive CHILE players.

My guess on final score is now 2-2 ...just hoping CHILE take lead at 1-2.......

In view of my guess on final score will put £2 on 2-2 as cover.
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 17 Nov 09 15:57
Also as I believe a goal will be scored in 2nd half......I have now layed off all profit on 1-1 to reduce liabilities on CS on scores I don't have covered....and also to increase profit when goal comes etc
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 17 Nov 09 16:16
1-2 CHILE :D


So have layedd CHILE in match market and have 2-2 covered too ....and put £2 on SLOV in match market ....so profit assured on this one now :D
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 17 Nov 09 16:47
GAME 3 - Netherlands U21 v Spain U21

A draw is fine for home team.

SPAIN might also settle for DRAW ...but a win is better.

MAIN BET is DRAW/DRAW so

PRESENT BANK : 419.12 ...before CHILE PROFITS through
BF odds 5.7
PROBABILITY 4-1 (20%)
STAKES INDICATED : 8.73


So bets are -

DRAW/DRAW £6 main bet
DRAW/SPAIN £2
cover bet SPAIN/DRAW £2
cover bet 2-1 SPAIN in CS market
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 17 Nov 09 17:01
PROFIT ON GAME 2 -



Football: £13.37 | Horse Racing: £18.11 Total P&L: £31.48


Football Showing 1 - 4 of 4 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Slovakia v Chile : Half Time/Full Time 17-Nov-09 16:00 17-Nov-09 17:53 34.62
Football / Slovakia v Chile : Correct Score 17-Nov-09 16:00 17-Nov-09 17:53 -2.90
Football / Slovakia v Chile : Match Odds 17-Nov-09 16:00 17-Nov-09 17:52 -9.27
Football / Slovakia v Chile : Half Time 17-Nov-09 16:00 17-Nov-09 16:49 -9.08


So far with football -

GAME 1 - Bray v Sporting Fingal .............PROFIT £ 40.00
GAME 2 - Slovakia v Chile .....................PROFIT 13.37
------------
CUMULATIVE PROFIT ON FOOTBALL ON THREAD £ 53.37
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 17 Nov 09 17:08
http://www.iraqgoals.net/3472-netherlands-u21-vs-spain-u21-.html

link for game 3
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 17 Nov 09 17:08
Already set up a lay on HT DRAW for late in match.....................just in case a goal scored late etc
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 17 Nov 09 17:15
1-0 NETHERLANDS ...and lay of DRAW HT was not taken ...so need SPAIN to equalise before HT
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 17 Nov 09 17:47
Looks like only have 1-2 SPAIN to rescue this match...off to do dishes !!!!
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 17 Nov 09 18:20
Backed £2 on 2-1 NETHERLANDs ......so in CS market have 1-2 and 2-1 covered ....and about to lay 1-0 to make it no loss or profit on 1-1.................
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 17 Nov 09 18:21
Have made lay on basis that i expect another goal...............
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 17 Nov 09 18:25
2-0 NETHERLANDS ...so at least saved £4 ....in CS market ...if goes to 2-1 should wriggle out of loss on HT/FT market...I hope.
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 17 Nov 09 18:32
GAME 4 - Northern Ireland U21 v Czech Republic U21

I expect CZECHS to win ......and hope NI can at least hold em to HT.

MAIN BET is DRAW/CZECHS


PRESENT BANK : 444.84

BF odds 4.8
PROBABILITY 3-1 (25%)
STAKES INDICATED : 18.79

So bets are -

DRAW/CZECHS £10 MAIN BET

Cover bets
CZECH/CZECH ............
NI/NI ....................... £2
0-0 BACK in CS MARKET £2
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 17 Nov 09 18:34
A further cover bet of £2 on 1-3 CZECH........in case they are of to first half flyer ......
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 17 Nov 09 18:36
GAME 3 ...........laying NETHERLANDS to gain £20 in match market in case late DRAW.....
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 17 Nov 09 18:42
Now 2-1 :D NETHERLANDs ...so backed 3-1 so covering goal by eith side ...and if no goals have made profit ...looks good now :D
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 17 Nov 09 18:57
FT 2-1 NETHERLANDS ...so got out the loss position ....and I think there is a tiny profit ....on GAME 3.
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 17 Nov 09 18:59
GAME 3 RESULT £1.10 PROFIT.
Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Netherlands U21 v Spain U21 : Half Time/Full Time 17-Nov-09 18:00 17-Nov-09 19:57 -10.00
Football / Netherlands U21 v Spain U21 : Correct Score 17-Nov-09 18:00 17-Nov-09 19:57 12.10
Football / Netherlands U21 v Spain U21 : Match Odds 17-Nov-09 18:00 17-Nov-09 19:57 -1.00
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 17 Nov 09 19:01
So far with football -

GAME 1 - Bray v Sporting Fingal .............PROFIT £ 40.00
GAME 2 - Slovakia v Chile .....................PROFIT 13.37
GAME 3- Netherlands v Spain................PROFIT 1.10
------------
CUMULATIVE PROFIT ON FOOTBALL ON THREAD £ 54.47
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 17 Nov 09 19:06
GAME 4 -


Just layed the HT DRAW to gain £6 if either team scores ...to try to make a profit if CZECHS especially score before HT.
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 17 Nov 09 19:19
GAME 4

Layed HT DRAW to gain another £6 if one of em ahead at Ht maybe
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 17 Nov 09 19:21
1-0 CZECHS :d
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 17 Nov 09 19:23
2-0 CZECHs ...all over probably.......................will lay CZECHS in match market in case of DRAW though...................................

Still have 1-3 bet standing ...who knows might come off as well.
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 17 Nov 09 19:26
Bailed out the 1-3 bet to reduce loss in CS market ....to almost nil..............


Over all PROFIT likely now .....most unlikely could lose now.
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 17 Nov 09 19:27
GAME 4 appoximately £ 8 profit guaranteed...................


So leaving game alone now.
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 17 Nov 09 19:30
STOPPING for today now....don't like any of other games.

Will post P & L once GAME 4 over.

G N the noooooooooooooooo
By:
The One That Got Away
When: 17 Nov 09 20:16
Very well done so far DFC. Keep up te excellent work. :-)
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 17 Nov 09 20:50
Cheers Jodie ....Good to see you back again ....:D Going well SO FAR....................The KELLY STAKES CALCULAOR is a big help for me.....just have to pick bets that might occur ....the hard part now.


OVERALL PROFIT FOR DAY WITH GAMES 2,3 AND 4

Football: £24.23


Football Showing 1 - 10 of 10 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Northern Ireland U21 v Czech Republic U21 : Correct Score 17-Nov-09 19:45 17-Nov-09 21:45 -0.45
Football / Northern Ireland U21 v Czech Republic U21 : Match Odds 17-Nov-09 19:45 17-Nov-09 21:37 -1.20
Football / Northern Ireland U21 v Czech Republic U21 : Half Time 17-Nov-09 19:45 17-Nov-09 20:32 11.41
Football / Netherlands U21 v Spain U21 : Half Time/Full Time 17-Nov-09 18:00 17-Nov-09 19:57 -10.00
Football / Netherlands U21 v Spain U21 : Correct Score 17-Nov-09 18:00 17-Nov-09 19:57 12.10
Football / Netherlands U21 v Spain U21 : Match Odds 17-Nov-09 18:00 17-Nov-09 19:57 -1.00
Football / Slovakia v Chile : Half Time/Full Time 17-Nov-09 16:00 17-Nov-09 17:53 34.62
Football / Slovakia v Chile : Correct Score 17-Nov-09 16:00 17-Nov-09 17:53 -2.90
Football / Slovakia v Chile : Match Odds 17-Nov-09 16:00 17-Nov-09 17:52 -9.27
Football / Slovakia v Chile : Half Time 17-Nov-09 16:00 17-Nov-09 16:49 -9.08
=======================================================
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 17 Nov 09 20:53
Sorry that is wrong as still waiting on HT/FT small loss
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 17 Nov 09 20:55
CORRECT POSITION FOR TODAY

Football: £21.83 on GAMES 2,3 AND 4


Football Showing 1 - 11 of 11 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Northern Ireland U21 v Czech Republic U21 : Half Time/Full Time 17-Nov-09 19:45 17-Nov-09 21:46 -2.40
Football / Northern Ireland U21 v Czech Republic U21 : Correct Score 17-Nov-09 19:45 17-Nov-09 21:45 -0.45
Football / Northern Ireland U21 v Czech Republic U21 : Match Odds 17-Nov-09 19:45 17-Nov-09 21:37 -1.20
Football / Northern Ireland U21 v Czech Republic U21 : Half Time 17-Nov-09 19:45 17-Nov-09 20:32 11.41
Football / Netherlands U21 v Spain U21 : Half Time/Full Time 17-Nov-09 18:00 17-Nov-09 19:57 -10.00
Football / Netherlands U21 v Spain U21 : Correct Score 17-Nov-09 18:00 17-Nov-09 19:57 12.10
Football / Netherlands U21 v Spain U21 : Match Odds 17-Nov-09 18:00 17-Nov-09 19:57 -1.00
Football / Slovakia v Chile : Half Time/Full Time 17-Nov-09 16:00 17-Nov-09 17:53 34.62
Football / Slovakia v Chile : Correct Score 17-Nov-09 16:00 17-Nov-09 17:53 -2.90
Football / Slovakia v Chile : Match Odds 17-Nov-09 16:00 17-Nov-09 17:52 -9.27
Football / Slovakia v Chile : Half Time 17-Nov-09 16:00 17-Nov-09 16:49 -9.08
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 17 Nov 09 21:01
So far with football -

16.11.09 GAME 1 - Bray v Sporting Fingal ...............................................PROFIT £ 40.00
17.11.09 GAME 2 - Slovakia v Chile .........................................................PROFIT 13.37
17.11.09 GAME 3- Netherlands v Spain......................................................PROFIT 1.10
17.11.09 GAME 4- Northern Ireland U21 v Czech Republic U21 .......................PROFIT 7.36

------------
CUMULATIVE PROFIT ON FOOTBALL ON THREAD ..............................................£ 61.83


CLOSING BANK TODAY AFTER HORSE RACES AND FOOTBALL £ 467.30

So bank increased by 7 % today over all .....so that is OK ....A bit lucky possibly with NETHERLANDS game , and also made an ERROR with horse racing bets that cost £15 profit.....so all in all a good day.

G N the noooooooooooooo
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 18 Nov 09 14:32
POLAND v CANADA 4.00 pm KO

Some points to consider


1. POLAND have only scored 1 goal in their last 4 WC ties......and could not beat NI on their (P's) turf.

2. If the Polish coach will make loads of changes to team.......does that not mean they might not play too well as a team?????

3. CANADA have played against........like COSTA RICA who drew away 2-2 to USA in WC tie....narowly lost to URUGUAY 0-1 in first leg of play-off WC tie....., then there is HONDURAS who narrowly lost 2-3 to USA in WC tie, then lost only 1-0 to MEXICO .....JAMAICA rew 0-0 away in friendly to SOUTH AFRICA, and drew 0-0 with EQUADOR away in friendly,....................

4. Having lost 3-0 to MACEDONIA in a friendly a few days ago CANADA may play a far better game ( could not get much worse than that score) and coach will want them to play better against POLAND......

5.At international level , especially in a friendly, is 1.68 for POLAND "value" for a win??????


My guess is CANADA might score first against a new set of players , if that is the case.........and CANADA may be the "value" initially IF THEY score first......at friendly level who knows how either team will play?


Will post bets shortly once BANK known after racing
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 18 Nov 09 14:47
BANK before football starts .... £464.98

Taking a chance on CANADA scoring first goal against a team that may not have played as such in first half......

BANK : £464.98
ODDS AVAILABLE : 12 ( BF)
PROBABILITY : 7-1 ( 12.50%)
STAKES INDICATED : 19.19


Bets are as follows -

CANADA/CANADA : £ 5 at 12s main bet

Cover bets - to maybe give me scope for trying to go all green ....
DRAW/CANADA £2 AT 15.50
poland/poland £3 in case wrong
DRAW/POLAND £2
BACK 0-0 for £2
BACK 2-2 for £2
BACK 2-1 for £2
BACK 3-0 for £2

GL with bets
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