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Scalping/Trading Time Decay Markets - 10% Profit Per Day
Scalping/Trading Time Decay Markets - 10% Profit Per Day
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To see the pros/cons of a few scalps, and when a goal goes against you, there are loads of videos on the following youtube channel.
https://www.youtube.com/user/bluecyprus1 |
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Just another little time decay trade whilst watching the match.
03-Nov-15 21:13:23 Real Madrid v Paris St-G Real Madrid - Match Odds Betfair Bet ID 1:57640438141 | Matched: 03-Nov-15 21:13:57 Lay 1.43 31.70 28.88 31.70 Matched 03-Nov-15 20:58:45 Real Madrid v Paris St-G Real Madrid - Match Odds Betfair Bet ID 1:57639261971 | Matched: 03-Nov-15 20:58:55 Back 1.57 28.88 -- 16.46 Matched £2.69 profit 4 total trades tonight £6.92 profit 7% of that £100 bank being used. The only reason I haven't done more is I'm looking after my nephew tonight otherwise I'd be making a lot more trades. |
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SO you backed RM at 1.57 , Then 15 mins after you layed them for the same amount, what was the plan if PSG had scored?
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That is the key question to this strategy, not how to win, because scalping on a time decay market is guaranteed when things go your way - as they normally will.
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Dodging bullets , nothing more than that; far as i can see
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Not necessarily. Good scalping is essentially a matter of sound picks on prices that are wrong and getting in/out quickly for market corrections; and the dodging bullets bit doesn't matter, because more than enough go your way to make up for the losses.
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take the loss after waiting 5 minutes to see if Real Madrid got a quick response.
PSG hadn't threatened the goal for a while before I entered, didn't have a single shot on target from when I entered to around 25 minutes after I was out. It was a riskier opportunity than unders yes as 1 goal could have broken it but it was worth taking it to me so I took it and I got out when it felt good and right to do so. I don't suggest waiting in for that long in general but for this particular trade I felt safe to do so, so I did. And I also don't suggest staking 50% of your bank either that £50 should translate to whatever 2% to 5% of your bank would be but I am also showing that you can hit around 10% of a set bank on most days, you don't have to risk 50% either it depends on how many trades you are planning to put through in the day. This is averaging 3 to 6 tick trades and the % of bank you are staking per trade but it roughly amounts to this: 50% stake = around 4 trades 25% stake = around 8 trades 12.5% stake = around 16 trades Yes the RM game was a dodging bullet trade but it's what I did. You can take them out of your own betting/trading I'm just showing what was done today. |
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Darlo you are finally seeing things in the right light at least... it's about risk and risk assessment and knowing that sometimes you do have the favourable positions and they should be taken because the chance of reward is high and will happen more than it won't.
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I'm not seeing anything in a new light.
My main points have never budged, and that is scalping is nothing new and proven to be profitable when done right. But principally your 10% target is utterly ridiculous. But you don't need to demonstrate wins on how this works, but how you work around the losses, and how damaging they are. See the youtube link above for problems when things go wrong. |
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I've already seen his videos and I've been in positions where i've had a goal go against me and I've reduced the damage by giving it a little time because it was okay to do so and some of them I still profited because of the time of the game and the chance of it going against me was low.
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Low but by no means impossible.
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We're not looking for impossible though we're looking for low... there is no impossible otherwise there wouldn't be a price for it.
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This doesn't just go for, but anyone trying this - and if the purpose of your thread is to demonstrate to people how to make money then it's important - that if you're arrogant or in denial that things can go wrong, then eventually you will just end up losing. It might be way down the path, but you can't expect to demonstrate a profitable strategy over a few days or two weeks, as you possibly suggested above, when you act in denial to the real risk.
Good luck anyway. |
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*for you.
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People have this high expectation of a risk free option but there just is no risk free option here unless you get a small blip in the market where you can arb 2 markets to guarantee a profit by covering all the outcomes which probably has happened before but good luck finding that.
You cannot avoid the risks you can just try to find the least risky option. Admittedly the RM trade wasn't one of those but I just added it because it's what I did so I documented it. Nobody is denying the risk here that's the thing, if you read everything that's my whole argument to why this works is you are calculating the risk beforehand and selecting the least risky option to trade/scalp and your staking should be 2 to 5% of your bank so the most you should be risking is that on any single trade anyway and if you are able to consistently make good trades the profit will be a side product of that. You can forget targets, I always regret adding an "aim" or "happy with" % on anything because people just clamp onto that when really that's just a side product of making good trades because if you can consistently pull off those 1 to 3 tick trades throughout the day then you will make yourself a profit, if the market goes against you then you don't gamble it you just accept that loss (if you feel you have to which is not always the case) knowing that the majority of the time you will be getting the trades correct and there are people able to do that consistently. They may have a bad run over a few days but overall that will be a small blip in the long term. |
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Most of that is fair enough. As long as you're aware of the risk, when some of your posts suggest you're in total denial or arrogant that things can quickly go against you.
However, you say "if the market goes against you then you don't gamble it you just accept that loss" Yet above, you posted: "within a minute of each other. If a goal goes against you, you have time to get out. If it's around the 30 minute mark it's a minimal loss, depending on how early in the game will depend on how long you would have to wait for it to go back to a green position for you but from personal experience and other tools available, I know that if a goal goes against me around 30 minutes, it takes around 10 to 12 minutes before I'm back to 0 loss or I can take a small loss." which suggests you're gambling on the market getting back to a breakeven point rather than "accepting that loss". Again, an apparent arrogance on your part. |
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CJ70 • November 3, 2015 4:15 PM GMT
That's incorrect, dimebar8. You brought up a Romanian match in your first post, that market runs on the price in asia. If the asian price goes up, BF price jumps up. The market moves in the way which most people want it to move, if more people are trying to sell rather than buy the price will go up. If someone buts £5k in front of you in a low liquidity game, you aren't getting out of that mess by the cross-matching bot! Load of b*llocks. From a guy doing 5 quid on Lithuania div 4 |
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Darlo if I am on unders and a goal goes in but up until that goal there was no threat on either goal, no prior shots, say a fluke goal went in or just against the run of play in general is my point then yes sometimes it's worth waiting in the market. The unders price reflects that there is expected to be less than 3 goals and it's only if a goal goes in within the first 20 minutes of the game that you should think about an instant exit, just my opinion but again it depends on how the game has been going too and how risky it feels.
On the flipside if I am on unders and within the first 3 minutes there's 5 shots on goal then I'm getting out of the market before the goal even goes in and not going for the ticks in that game. It's risk assessment. |
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"It's risk assessment" And guessing at the same time, or hoping it goes your way from the suggestions of the data but you can't eliminate that from any gamble. Of course we are always at risk of it going wrong but that goes for everything in the world... business, relationships, everything has a risk and is a gamble isn't it.
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You said that people should switch from gambler to trader , but as I see it ,until you trade out , you are gambling , once you have traded out ,you are a trader , but not before ?
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Trading is gambling technically but short term trading for a tick or 3 is vastly different to gambling on the outcome of an entire event...
What's your point with this statement you made? You can see the difference between the two and I'm not the inventor of the word "trader" I don't care what you want to be labelled as. I'd happily call stock market traders stock market gamblers because that's what it is... no different here. |
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I'm going to just write a list of things that should be cleared up because people seem to just want to nitpick at the tiny things that are taken out of context and make them the main point when they really shouldn't be the focus.
1. Trading is gambling, just short term gambling. 2. It has it's risk along with everything else, it is just reduced risk compared to long term gambles. 3. The target of 10% in the opening post is almost irrelevant, it's just nice to have something to be proud of if you hit that. And it IS achievable, just factually it is achievable to make 10% of a set bank trading through the day. 4. This is nothing new, most people know about it, some don't. This might be all old news to most of you but it will open the eyes of others and I'm not doing this for any ego or recognition I do not care I'm doing it because it's solid in the right hands, obviously not for everyone. 5. Yes I am relatively "new" to this so technically I am winging it, however I have done my homework and I am smart enough to know the numbers are correct when saying that this is a hell of a lot more favourable to you than standard gambling is and this can give a sustainable income to the right people and it does give consistent income to a lot of "traders" daily. I know Peter Webb and Caan Berry make content for Betfair so you may not think they are credible but the fact is they actually are credible and it's why Betfair ask them to make content for them and yes Peter Webb is the creator of BetAngel and is plugging it consistently on his channel and videos to sell but why wouldn't he? It's actually a decent tool to use for trading. You can learn a lot from both of those guys, especially Peter Webb and I do suggest going and viewing a lot of the content they offer as well as reading up on articles and anything you can find which will outline the exact maths and risks involved and will also show you why the risks are worth taking as they will favour you more than they don't if you make the correct plays in the markets. This thread was nothing to do with me or my ego and I know it sometimes can sound like I love the sound of my voice and slightly narcissistic which I can come across as... But I really am simply trying to show some people that might not know of this that it's out there, it works and can work in the right hands consistently. |
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1700 views and 221 post and youre saying I've waited all fooking night for £4.23 profit give be a break
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£6.92 profit / 7% of bank
the numbers are relative to the individual and the stakes they can afford. |
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If you had a £2000 bank you could be staking £100 instead just 5% of your bank and taking 2 to 3 ticks per trade... consistently through the day.
All adds up at the end of the day, might not look like impressive numbers individually but they all add up. |
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Yea I know dimey it's all relative. I have turned £3.35 into a large figure before through discipline and bank management. It was not easy.
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Read thru all +100 new comments. Like a tennis rally, 24h of back and forth. I'm so confused.
Dimey, good luck mate. If you could, please post your results will follow with interest. |
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Good luck, can I have my twenty minutes of life back that ive spent reading the too you to me bits of the thread.
To get straight to the point put the bets up and prove it works or does not work, and neverrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrpost any after time bets. |
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knuckles if I'm writing both sides of a trade which some take a minute or less then i could miss my exit point and if you spent a day trading you'd know how distracting that would be to you, you literally are watching and dipping in and out of markets all the time but I can and will copy and paste from the current bets page that shows everything what happened for the bet including the bet id reference numbers from betfair etc.
like i'm trading under 3.5 on america mg right now but i'm doing 2 ticks etc so I don't have time to spam out the odds, price etc it's time consuming for me to do both and i would lose focus if i'm doing that for every single trade i'm making |
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Libertad v Sol De America
£0.23 profit. (Market was moving far too slow so I just went for 1 tick trade and got out) America MG v Paysandu £1.47 profit. Real Madrid v PSG £2.69 Profit Birmingham V Blackburn £4.23 Profit Trades below: 03-Nov-15 23:57:59 America MG v Paysandu Under 3.5 Goals - Over/Under 3.5 Goals Betfair Bet ID 1:57644197642 | Matched: 03-Nov-15 23:59:28 Lay 1.34 30.45 10.35 30.45 Matched 03-Nov-15 23:57:40 America MG v Paysandu Under 3.5 Goals - Over/Under 3.5 Goals Betfair Bet ID 1:57644193697 | Matched: 03-Nov-15 23:57:46 Back 1.36 30.00 -- 10.80 Matched 03-Nov-15 23:53:30 America MG v Paysandu Under 3.5 Goals - Over/Under 3.5 Goals Betfair Bet ID 1:57644146662 | Matched: 03-Nov-15 23:55:54 Lay 1.38 31.09 11.81 31.09 Matched 03-Nov-15 23:53:13 America MG v Paysandu Under 3.5 Goals - Over/Under 3.5 Goals Betfair Bet ID 1:57644143869 | Matched: 03-Nov-15 23:53:19 Back 1.43 30.00 -- 42.90 Matched 03-Nov-15 23:42:17 Libertad v Sol de America (Par) Under 3.5 Goals - Over/Under 3.5 Goals Betfair Bet ID 1:57643994782 | Matched: 03-Nov-15 23:44:28 Lay 1.27 30.24 8.16 30.24 Matched 03-Nov-15 23:41:20 Libertad v Sol de America (Par) Under 3.5 Goals - Over/Under 3.5 Goals Betfair Bet ID 1:57643979943 | Matched: 03-Nov-15 23:41:45 Back 1.28 30.00 -- 38.40 Matched Placed Description Type Odds Stake (£) Liability (£) Potential Profit (£) Status 03-Nov-15 20:01:48 Birmingham v Blackburn Under 2.5 Goals - Over/Under 2.5 Goals Betfair Bet ID 1:57634946445 | Matched: 03-Nov-15 20:02:41 Lay 1.58 51.60 29.93 51.60 Matched 03-Nov-15 20:01:07 Birmingham v Blackburn Under 2.5 Goals - Over/Under 2.5 Goals Betfair Bet ID 1:57634878132 | Matched: 03-Nov-15 20:01:13 Back 1.63 50.00 -- 31.50 Matched 03-Nov-15 19:58:39 Birmingham v Blackburn Under 2.5 Goals - Over/Under 2.5 Goals Betfair Bet ID 1:57634642487 | Matched: 03-Nov-15 20:00:09 Lay 1.68 51.60 35.09 51.60 Matched 03-Nov-15 19:58:27 Birmingham v Blackburn Under 2.5 Goals - Over/Under 2.5 Goals Betfair Bet ID 1:57634622146 | Matched: 03-Nov-15 19:58:33 Back 1.73 47.00 -- 34.31 Matched 03-Nov-15 19:56:45 Birmingham v Blackburn Under 2.5 Goals - Over/Under 2.5 Goals Betfair Bet ID 1:57634462702 | Matched: 03-Nov-15 19:56:51 Back 1.76 3.00 -- 2.28 Matched 03-Nov-15 19:52:07 Birmingham v Blackburn Under 2.5 Goals - Over/Under 2.5 Goals Betfair Bet ID 1:57634042508 | Matched: 03-Nov-15 19:54:38 Lay 1.80 51.39 41.11 51.39 Matched 03-Nov-15 19:51:48 Birmingham v Blackburn Under 2.5 Goals - Over/Under 2.5 Goals Betfair Bet ID 1:57634013059 | Matched: 03-Nov-15 19:51:54 Back 1.85 50.00 -- 42.50 Matched 03-Nov-15 21:13:23 Real Madrid v Paris St-G Real Madrid - Match Odds Betfair Bet ID 1:57640438141 | Matched: 03-Nov-15 21:13:57 Lay 1.43 31.70 28.88 31.70 Matched 03-Nov-15 20:58:45 Real Madrid v Paris St-G Real Madrid - Match Odds Betfair Bet ID 1:57639261971 | Matched: 03-Nov-15 20:58:55 Back 1.57 28.88 -- 16.46 Matched So final profit for day 1 = £8.62 (8.62% of bank for that one little side of it too which I am willing to try achieve as consistently as possible in a realistic manner even though I'm not claiming that you will hit it everyday) |
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Pay close attention to this trade in particular look at the time it took to get in and out of that market.
23:53:30 America MG v Paysandu Under 3.5 Goals - Over/Under 3.5 Goals Betfair Bet ID 1:57644146662 | Matched: 03-Nov-15 23:55:54 Lay 1.38 31.09 11.81 31.09 Matched 03-Nov-15 23:53:13 America MG v Paysandu Under 3.5 Goals - Over/Under 3.5 Goals Betfair Bet ID 1:57644143869 | Matched: 03-Nov-15 23:53:19 Back 1.43 30.00 -- 42.90 We entered our trade at 23:53:13 and we exited just 17 seconds later for a 5 tick trade. You get those a lot during the day and the chance of it going in your face in those 17 seconds are rather slim. Once you have been doing this a short time you will notice there will be choke points every now and then too where some money is sitting there holding up the line so you generally just avoid them and don't go in when it's congested and re-enter when it's flowing again. |
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One last trade.
Profit of £1.43 00:47:35 America MG v Paysandu Under 4.5 Goals - Over/Under 4.5 Goals Betfair Bet ID 1:57644780403 | Matched: 04-Nov-15 00:49:28 Lay 1.05 61.43 3.07 61.43 Matched 04-Nov-15 00:45:19 America MG v Paysandu Under 4.5 Goals - Over/Under 4.5 Goals Betfair Bet ID 1:57644758802 | Matched: 04-Nov-15 00:45:29 Back 1.08 30.00 -- 2.40 Matched 04-Nov-15 00:44:51 America MG v Paysandu Under 4.5 Goals - Over/Under 4.5 Goals Betfair Bet ID 1:57644754557 | Matched: 04-Nov-15 00:44:57 Back 1.07 30.00 -- 2.10 Matched Final Day 1 Profit - £10.05 10.05% of bank for that silly side of it :) Goodnight! |
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dimebar8 • November 4, 2015 12:58 AM GMT
Final Day 1 Profit - £10.05 10.05% of bank for that silly side of it :) HIS GONE AND DONE IT! Imagine the seething mugs wake up tomorrow morning and see this! |
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Seething mugs lol. So, he proved one day he can get 10%. It's proving you can do it day after day that you make real profits, not just one day.
I've wished him luck, but apparently if he wins, you become a seething mug! |
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There are 2 sides to this thread already because there is the side where the £100 bank and 10% isn't important at all as it's about showing the trades and markets and methods and people having their own staking for those trades because it's scalable by stake as you are dealing with ticks here.
Then there is the side of okay can we actually get some kind of consistent trading done in a way that can make us or close to 10% profit of a £100 bank each day as regularly and consistently as we possibly can. The first part is the most important the second part is more of a challenge to do and is gambling, but to make the thread more exciting I'll take the challenge on anyway. |
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dimebar, the master of the aftertimed scalp bet
 he'll never lose on this thread because every bet is posted after the event. |
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Lol crazy this thread.
One hit after another |
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Bank £110.05.
Target £11.10. Well done on first/second day. 10 % is admirable. But is fairly easy with a £100 bank. 10% per day is not sustainable.This is a fact. For a low bank you can get away with it for a bit. I personally have done a 2% bank increase and was successful to a point. Anything else I made on 2% i saw as a bonus for the day. There is alot of psychology in this, you need to get your head around protecting that bank at all costs and making sure only the safest trades are executed. You will do well at first but then things start to take there toll. Losses(inevitable) trades turning/boredom/mistakes/greed and dont forget betfair with those long suspends where you need to exit the market quick.It will all test your bank and your head. You will start to see that your money management and your head are just as important as your trades. I don't think trading is the best way to build a bank like this. But hey if it's working for you good luck. |
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Dimey having a good sleep in today.
Btwn these +500 word replies, and the ticks - he is burnt out. Cant wait for todays events. |