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Scalping/Trading Time Decay Markets - 10% Profit Per Day
Scalping/Trading Time Decay Markets - 10% Profit Per Day
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The only issue I see with this method is how long it takes, and being bored out your mind in the process. 1 tick bets takes 76 bets approx, to double your money. Unless you're doing a life sentence in the slammer, who has the time to do 76 1 tick trades just to double your money.
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ffs i wrote so much out... I'm not re-writing it but in a nut shell in your example.
2 tick trades would take 38 trades to double money, 4 tick trades 19 etc etc. Rarely do I take 1 tick trades unless I'm scalping horses because I'm getting multiple 1 ticks in very short time frames. And someone said about 10% not being sustainable, the 10% isn't important as I've said 100 times it's just a figure to be happy with, like that guy just then talking about doubling the bank, it's not about that... it's about consistently taking money from the markets small pieces at a time and letting them add up at the end of the day and yes it is very time intensive so not for everyone but I can also tell you that if you have a bank of £1000 and staking £50 stakes per trade you can comfortably make £50 PER DAY trading through the day and if that isn't enough for you then I have no idea what you expect, if you want to make more then up your stakes this isn't no get rich quick scheme this is about taking little pieces out of the market consistently and letting it all add up at the end of the day. And it's not boring when you are scalping the horses either, there's a race every 5 or 10 minutes and plenty of opportunities to get swing trades and scalp, it's far from boring but it is very time consuming and intensive. |
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Go take a look at these guys, they are legit.
For anyone saying this doesn't work etc then there's your proof it does work. https://www.youtube.com/user/caanberry https://www.youtube.com/user/betangeltv whether you can replicate what they do is another story but I'm doing well for myself so far and yes I do take the occasional loss. Horse Racing: £58.20 | Soccer: £17.03 Total P&L: £75.23 Horse Racing Showing 1 - 16 of 16 markets Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£) Horse Racing / Cork 1st Nov : 2m INHF 01-Nov-15 16:35 01-Nov-15 16:47 3.31 Horse Racing / Naas 1st Nov : 2m3f INHF 01-Nov-15 16:25 01-Nov-15 16:37 6.06 Horse Racing / Carl 1st Nov : 1m6f NHF 01-Nov-15 16:15 01-Nov-15 16:21 3.04 Horse Racing / Cork 1st Nov : 2m4f Hcap Hrd 01-Nov-15 16:05 01-Nov-15 16:16 4.14 Horse Racing / Hunt 1st Nov : 3m1f Hcap Hrd 01-Nov-15 16:00 01-Nov-15 16:07 6.11 Horse Racing / Naas 1st Nov : 2m4f Hcap Hrd 01-Nov-15 15:55 01-Nov-15 16:05 09.07 Horse Racing / Carl 1st Nov : 2m4f Listed 01-Nov-15 15:45 01-Nov-15 15:52 2.14 Horse Racing / Hunt 1st Nov : 2m4f Nov Chs 01-Nov-15 15:30 01-Nov-15 15:37 6.09 Horse Racing / Cork 1st Nov : 2m4f Nov Chs 01-Nov-15 15:05 01-Nov-15 15:13 4.11 Horse Racing / Hunt 1st Nov : 2m3f Nov Hrd 01-Nov-15 14:55 01-Nov-15 15:03 3.12 Horse Racing / Naas 1st Nov : 2m Beg Chs 01-Nov-15 14:45 01-Nov-15 14:52 -5.96 Horse Racing / Carl 1st Nov : 3m2f Hcap Chs 01-Nov-15 14:35 01-Nov-15 14:47 5.05 Horse Racing / Cork 1st Nov : 2m4f Mdn Hrd 01-Nov-15 14:30 01-Nov-15 14:39 3.04 Horse Racing / Hunt 1st Nov : 2m Hcap Chs 01-Nov-15 14:20 01-Nov-15 14:26 4.22 Horse Racing / Carl 1st Nov : 2m1f Nov Hcap Hrd 01-Nov-15 14:05 01-Nov-15 14:16 -4.36 Horse Racing / Cork 1st Nov : 3m Nov Hrd 01-Nov-15 13:55 01-Nov-15 14:03 9.02 Horse Racing: £88.19 | Soccer: £24.15 Total P&L: £112.34 Horse Racing Showing 1 - 20 of 26 markets Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£) Horse Racing / Wolv 31st Oct : 5f Hcap 31-Oct-15 20:20 31-Oct-15 20:36 3.24 Horse Racing / Wolv 31st Oct : 5f Hcap 31-Oct-15 19:45 31-Oct-15 19:51 6.26 Horse Racing / Wolv 31st Oct : 5f Nursery 31-Oct-15 19:15 31-Oct-15 19:24 5.03 Horse Racing / Wolv 31st Oct : 1m4f Mdn Stks 31-Oct-15 18:45 31-Oct-15 18:54 4.31 Horse Racing / Wolv 31st Oct : 7f Hcap 31-Oct-15 18:15 31-Oct-15 18:22 2.13 Horse Racing / Wolv 31st Oct : 1m Mdn Stks 31-Oct-15 17:45 31-Oct-15 17:54 6.15 Horse Racing / Wolv 31st Oct : 6f Nursery 31-Oct-15 17:10 31-Oct-15 17:16 3.20 Horse Racing / Wolv 31st Oct : 1m6f App Hcap 31-Oct-15 16:35 31-Oct-15 16:47 1.07 Horse Racing / Ayr 31st Oct : 1m5f NHF 31-Oct-15 16:30 31-Oct-15 16:38 8.01 Horse Racing / Weth 31st Oct : 2m3f Hcap Hrd 31-Oct-15 16:10 31-Oct-15 16:22 3.19 Horse Racing / Ascot 31st Oct : 1m7f NHF 31-Oct-15 15:55 31-Oct-15 16:05 4.02 Horse Racing / Newm 31st Oct : 1m Listed 31-Oct-15 15:45 31-Oct-15 16:00 2.07 Horse Racing / DownR 31st Oct : 2m INHF 31-Oct-15 15:50 31-Oct-15 15:57 -4.49 Horse Racing / Weth 31st Oct : 1m7f Nov Hcap Chs 31-Oct-15 15:40 31-Oct-15 15:50 3.04 Horse Racing / Weth 31st Oct : 2m Listed Hrd 31-Oct-15 14:30 31-Oct-15 14:42 -5.40 Horse Racing / Ascot 31st Oct : 2m1f Listed Hcap Chs 31-Oct-15 14:15 31-Oct-15 14:21 4.04 Horse Racing / Weth 31st Oct : 3m Grd2 Hrd 31-Oct-15 14:00 31-Oct-15 14:13 3.01 Horse Racing / Newm 31st Oct : 1m Listed 31-Oct-15 14:05 31-Oct-15 14:09 7.06 Horse Racing / Ascot 31st Oct : 2m3f Nov Hcap Chs 31-Oct-15 13:45 31-Oct-15 14:03 4.02 Horse Racing / Ayr 31st Oct : 2m5f Hcap Hrd 31-Oct-15 13:50 31-Oct-15 14:00 3.01 Horse Racing / DownR 31st Oct : 2m Hcap Hrd 31-Oct-15 13:40 31-Oct-15 13:46 4.03 Horse Racing / Newm 31st Oct : 1m1f Nursery 31-Oct-15 13:35 31-Oct-15 13:37 5.08 Horse Racing / Weth 31st Oct : 3m Nov Chs 31-Oct-15 13:25 31-Oct-15 13:35 6.02 Horse Racing / Ascot 31st Oct : 1m7f Nov Hrd 31-Oct-15 13:10 31-Oct-15 13:18 3.03 Horse Racing / Newm 31st Oct : 7f Mdn Stks 31-Oct-15 13:00 31-Oct-15 13:02 4.02 Horse Racing / Weth 31st Oct : 2m Nov Hrd 31-Oct-15 12:50 31-Oct-15 13:01 3.04 That's my 31st october and 1st november still testing using £25 flat stakes to scalp/swing trade horse and NEVER going in-play. The most you will lose if a market moves against you on the horses is a few ticks unless you gamble it in-play which you should never do and you can see there are a couple losses in there. |
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https://www.youtube.com/user/caanberry
I've seen this name spammed on this forum before, like you, he bent over backwards to encourage people to trade odds movements, the more people that do, the more likely himself and yourself will benefit. |
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I'm sorry but to burst peoples bubbles this is legit and it works and yes it is risky but at the same time it is also stupidly time intensive depending on what you want to achieve in a day but it's very rewarding too and when you are pulling off trades it does give you that feeling of satisfaction.
The reason most people won't be able to do this is because of a lack of confidence, discipline and just generally some people just have no idea what they are doing. Once you do your homework and fully grasp how and why it works you can start implementing it to make you some pennies multiple times per day and let them pennies add up at the end. Yes mesmerised, because it's adding liquidity to the markets lol but it doesn't mean I'm asking people because I want them to lose I'm just showing this because there are people that will be able to benefit from it and make money, I know a lot won't too though. |
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THIS IS LEGIT AND THIS WORKS. THESE ARE FACTS
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they are facts wisewords yes.
a fact is something you cannot prove to be wrong. |
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Adding liquidity to the markets or profiting from novices mistakes?
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of course I won't be wasting my time following such a flawed strategy. good luck to you
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I like you wisewords because you believe you are this rational, logical intelligent guy but you often don't apply that when you are making statements.
It's cute  |
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these facts are irrefutable.
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how about posting some real time trades? maybe? y'think you could?
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I understand what your betting system involves, i'm not saying it couldn't work. I was merely pointing out it will take a long time to show any decent profits using the 1 tick like I think I seen you mention in a previous post. Maybe when you mentioned the 1 tick I took it as that is all you was going to do and nothing else. If you use more than 1 tick then of course it wont take as long, but you open yourself up to much more risk the longer you're in the game. Unless you start with a huge bank then you're going to wait a long time to see any decent profit imo. I wish you luck with it.
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Yes winner that is true, you need to disassociate this from what you would generally see as a gambler looking to make quick money unless like you say you are able to stake a figure that can give you satisfactory returns to make it worth doing.
If you have £100 bank and you don't have the patience to grow that doing this then yes this isn't a good thing for you but for those that do have the patience then it is for them. Wisewords there are some I could yes, if I'm doing a 5 or 10 tick trade on unders then I do have time to quickly pop it in here but for the small trades then there isn't that time to do that and if I am then I have no time to do anything else like there's so much to be watching when doing the horses which I'm going to do after my lunch and I won't be able to post those in here as it's moving way too fast for that. this is what my day typically looks like when I'm doing the horses http://imgur.com/ajFdH0j and that's just 1 screen on the other I have form ratings and video and other random things going on not always related to horses :P |
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sorry wrong url
https://imgur.com/pNrxL08 just to show what I am using because it's super fast and you don't need to fiddle or calculate what figure you need to offset your lay with, once you enter at a price you can click the "green to" column and it'll automatically place a lay bet at that price waiting to get matched and green it equally for you. |
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it isn't for me... so no idea.
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To the people that haven't tried it and disregarding it instantly go download some software like cymatic trader which is 100% free or betangel or geekstoy they both give you a free trial and try it yourself, they have simulation modes so you have nothing to risk or lose.
king it isn't for me Horse Racing / Naas 1st Nov : 2m4f Hcap Hrd 01-Nov-15 15:55 01-Nov-15 16:05 09.07 |
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I think everyone now fully grasps and knows everything I've said, so now it's just up to those that want to look into it and try it themselves to go do that and those that don't then don't... I really do not care what you personally do. It's working nicely for me... I can to the forum to share that and what it's about to those that maybe have never even looked into it and so others can give it a go themselves if they wish.
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came*
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I can openly admit that this thread is basically selling the idea to people and yes it is but I'm doing it because I know it works and is good, I wouldn't post it otherwise.
I've never posted anything like this in such a way before. I've done bank building threads etc which have been successful but that was standard straight up gambling just choosing wisely and being lucky of course by winning those bets. This is completely different and I do believe in it, if you think that's silly then that's up to you but it does work, maybe not for you but it does work. Mock away as much as you like  |
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why are there horseracing bets in there when none of the racing markets are time decay?
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Because they are perfect for scalping and swing trading, like I've said this isn't limited to time decay markets... this applies to every single market out there.
There are times in any market where there is an opportunity to steal some ticks and it's up to you to take those and find those. There is no set strategy in this or method and formula it's finding moments in a market where you can get in and out safely for a few ticks a time. |
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so what is your basis for choosing these moments in racing markets?
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Time decay markets are something everyone can easily take on and understand how they work which is why I was pre-dominantly going to focus on those in the thread to ease people in and then slowly start expanding and implementing it into the other markets.
It even says in the opening post "Will be mainly using, but not limited to, time decay markets to Scalp and Trade" |
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in the racing markets there are lots of signals to follow. Scalping a single tick you are looking at how much is on each side and if it's holding a stable position you go on both sides instantly.
For swing trading you need to realise the book has to be at or close to 100% at the off so when one horse is rising in price, another HAS to be falling etc. Then there are the steamers that are "produced" to be expected to win that race so all the "mug punters" start throwing money at it so you also back it early then exit the trade just before the off at it's highly shortened price etc. They are just examples it doesn't mean they will happen every time of course and there are plenty of videos that can explain all that for you available to you... just google or youtube the question you asked me as you will find better, more detailed responses to your question there, I'm not claiming to an expert here. |
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so what is your basis for choosing these moments in racing markets?
everything else in this thread is just pointless common sense, luck and guesswork. |
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Ok, ta
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It is guesswork yes but it's informed, educated guesswork for a very short moment of time, multiple times per day.
It's simply calculated risk and limiting your exposure both time and amount, I've thrown that out there so many times but that is what it is. If you break it down to it's essence then it simply is calculated risk (is it worth going in here or not), when it is worth risking going in because the boxes are ticked and the chances are with you then you go in, majority of times it will pay off if the boxes were ticked before going in, there will be times it doesn't go that way but those will be far far fewer than when it does if you chose correctly, and if you are staking correctly within your limits and being disciplined with your losses then the losses are never going to be "bank blowing" losses either like some think. That is the hard part of this and where it isn't an "easy" thing, it isn't easy at all and I've never claimed it to be easy. The concept is easy but implementing it yourself is the hard part but it does work if you choose the correct play to make based on being able to read and analyse all the information you have available to you to conclude that you have that very high chance of it going your way for those few seconds/minutes required to get in and out relatively safely. |
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you are suggesting that the odds are wrong at certain times in the time decay markets, which they are not. Goals are scored uniformly over the match except for the final 10 mins or so, so any position you take will over a very long run yield a profit of exactly zero (assuming no commission). Any other result means you know when the odds are wrong which in these time decay markets is just not possible.
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You are using probability there to suggest that if I went in on 100 unders markets at the end I'd be at 0 profit 0 loss.
You realise how probability works in reality? it's a bell curve. What I am suggesting however is that you will have plenty of opportunities to get in and out of a market for a number of ticks. The price indicates the odds of something happening for that entire event, we are never trading on an entire event we are simply looking at seconds, or minutes, but generally seconds of that event which is far easier to call than an entire event and your chances of success are far greater. It's not something you can compare so black and white because those prices whether right or wrong are for the entire event and we are just using whatever the price is currently at to get in at for our tiny "event" we created ourselves (those few seconds we are saying there won't be a goal, like a substitution taking place for example) In fact take that as an example, say you were super disciplined and only went for 1 tick trades during substitutions being made every game... you would need a miracle to lose that trade because it will tick down at least once, usually more during that period, over 99% of the time. so in that sense the price doesn't really matter but overall if it went against us then yes the price matters and lucky for you, you are generally taking on the correct or close to correct price anyway so you are not taking bad value most of the time. |
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You realise how probability works in reality? it's a bell curve.
not sure what you are referring to? the frequency of goals follows a poison probability law not a normal? |
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In fact take that as an example, say you were super disciplined and only went for 1 tick trades during substitutions being made every game... you would need a miracle to lose that trade because it will tick down at least once, usually more during that period, over 99% of the time.
with high volume matches you have no chance of being matched in either direction during a 1 min sub period and in low volume games the spread will be too wide so you would need two morons simultaneously giving their money away. so this example is for the textbooks only. not possible in the real world. |
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Charlton with regards to the goals if you are going to look to get into unders at kick off on under 2.5 then there are a number of factors and data available to you to make a decision.
Firstly the game should be expected to have less than 3 goals to begin with. you would go look at recent form/results between the 2 overall and head to head. you'd go look at home's form at home then away's form when away. you will look at the average time and frequency of goals scored by each team during a match you will look at the average time the first goal is scored by the home team you will look at the average time the first goal is scored by the away team and the same for first goal conceded team sheets live pictures the list could go on depending on what criteria you want to be met and if all boxes are ticked that would indicate you have a high chance of being successful and it's worth taking the risk. If you believe that overall you will be at 0 profit 0 loss then that's fine and up to you, the reality is that some will be in profit and consistently be in profit and some won't. |
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You have added absolutely nothing that is already known Dimebar. And on top of that you are just aftertiming your threads. So in reality all this thread is, is an ego , look at me I'm great thread. No different to the 1000s of threads like this down the years.
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz  |
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To you maybe dlarsson but not to others and this isn't about me or my betting or what I am doing/making etc so to claim it's an ego thing is silly.
Just letting others know that want to look into it more. You are an idiot by the way just for the record, my opinion of course |
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Charlton with regards to the goals if you are going to look to get into unders at kick off on under 2.5 then there are a number of factors and data available to you to make a decision.
Firstly the game should be expected to have less than 3 goals to begin with. you would go look at recent form/results between the 2 overall and head to head. you'd go look at home's form at home then away's form when away. you will look at the average time and frequency of goals scored by each team during a match you will look at the average time the first goal is scored by the home team you will look at the average time the first goal is scored by the away team and the same for first goal conceded team sheets live pictures the list could go on depending on what criteria you want to be met and if all boxes are ticked that would indicate you have a high chance of being successful and it's worth taking the risk. the chance of success could be .999 but if the odds imply .9999 then you are going to be a long term loser sorry but larson is correct. there is nothing to be gained from this thread |
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If you believe that overall you will be at 0 profit 0 loss then that's fine and up to you, the reality is that some will be in profit and consistently be in profit and some won't.
the only way this is possible is if you are betting when the odds are wrong. you are betting so often that it is safe to assume that the odds are NOT wrong enough of the time, hence you have no edge hence you will break even with sufficient exposure this thread should have been halted when you stated that "probability = the normal distribution" you, fella, are the idiot |
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with minimum reflection i would guess this is a research/fishing thread so thin is its logic
maybe a test to see how many able vs. witless posters on here? |
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Charlton please why would I ever do such a thing?
 But at the same time your argument against this being successful using the fact that the odds have to be wrong for it to work is because you are assuming that everyone will have the 50/50 ratio in the long run but that mathematically and technically is actually false, it's the most "likely" outcome but it isn't the only outcome that can happen when you simply take it down to individual trades that are solely independent from each other, your probabilities have no influence on them and IT IS possible to have a 99 successful trades to 1 unsuccessful trade ratio, or 98/2 97/3 etc so yes while text book would say that overall you have to break even the reality is that doesn't have to be an inevitability, you can say it does but it actually does not have to be an inevitability, you cannot say that someone cannot go through and make every single trade successfully because it CAN happen regardless of what the price is too, is it likely? no but my point to that is when you are throwing in formulas and stats and figures they are actually showing a probability that on average over a period of time that will be the outcome and it doesn't have to be the outcome. That's where the bell curve came into it earlier because certain people will infact always be on the positive curve of the bell through luck if that's what you want to label it. There will be the highest volume of people around the top of the curve where you're either bang on the 50/50 or you are the 49/51, 48/52 and as the numbers go up and down so does the volume of people in those areas. So if there were 1000 participants with the same "intelligence and criteria" for choosing when to enter a market, I'm not even sure what qualities would really matter other than them being fully competent in choosing what trades to take in general then you would find a distribution spread across what is labelled that "bell curve" which I know you will be familiar with because you know everything else apparently and just because your numbers predict that overall you will have to break even, it isn't actually the reality and that alone is enough to do it. The average person will hit that ratio but a lot won't. Some will be just over the profit line and some just under, some highly over, some highly under. |