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Scalping/Trading Time Decay Markets - 10% Profit Per Day
Scalping/Trading Time Decay Markets - 10% Profit Per Day
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Replies: 391
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Football matches are so hard to predict, time and time they go against everything you imagine will happen and everything that can happen will or wont, you will be better trading with tennis. I'm not saying you can't make money because you can.
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mega doing this involves all of that, I've mentioned that several times.
Every trade is a gamble, nobody is saying otherwise. To break it down simply: You have a set amount of data available to you. You assess all the data that is relevant to the market you are thinking of trading on. You then calculate the risks for things not going your way. If the risk turns out to be low and favourable to you then you take it. You go for small trades and a set staking plan to limit your exposure. You do take and accept losses if things aren't going your way. It works. |
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And also this applies to every single market not just football.
Every market has it's own risk, if you can assess enough data for a particular market to get one that ticks all the right boxes for the lowest risk or highest chance of you getting in and out then you take that risk. That's what it all comes down to, risk level. You are far more likely to fail if you are consistently trading on markets with a medium to high risk so if you can find those markets that give you the highest chance of pulling out 1 to 5 ticks or however many ticks you are going for then you take it. If something is going to happen 51 times out of 100 in your favour then it is worth taking that risk. The higher the probability the better obviously but just from using risk and probability as the factor of which decides whether to go for the trade or not then that's what you should do. You cannot just neatly package this into something so small and simple because the variance and variety of markets behave differently and require different ways of approaching them but the principle of this works and that is just a fact, I can clearly make statements that you cannot prove wrong. Fact: It is possible to make 10 one tick trades everyday Fact: You are no less likely to not make 10 one tick trades in any given day because you previously made 10 one tick trades successfully for the last 20 days prior to it. That would imply that those ticks you traded on those markets have a direct influence on the market you are currently trading which it doesn't. It's a man-made probability that says you are not likely to do so but the fact is that it is possible. People keep thinking I'm not taking what they are saying in and just disregarding it when I'm not, I'm just stating the facts that this does work and the numbers and maths prove that it does work. Just because it won't work for everyone doesn't mean it won't or doesn't work for others. And also someone mentioned about picking up pennies in front of a steam roller, it is actually possible to pick up all the pennies without getting mashed. Thee person picking up the pennies can move faster than the steam roller, the steam roller has a limit to how long it can run for as does the human but it is possible the human can stay ahead and pick up all of those pennies. I'm just showing that most of the statements I've been dealing with are incorrect and what I am saying is true and factual, doesn't matter if I personally am doing it or not, it is still true and possible. |
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Fact: It is possible to make 10 one tick trades everyday
If you're using that fact to demonstrate you can make 10% of your bank a day, then you need to take into account two things - You must use 100 per cent of your bank on those trades (and continue to do so every day) - You can't have any losses. Both are possible, but you won't manage it every day. The former point also brings in the key aspect of money/bank management too. |
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If it's a fact as you put it
 that you can get 10 one tick trades a day then the reverse is also a fact. So been so naive |
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I'm not talking about 10% of bank, that is just something to have as a target, it is actually irrelevant here.
So forget the 10% and just think about being in positive at the end of each day instead, no matter how big or small and then apply everything that's been said. I forget that having an aim gets taken as you have to hit that each day in the forums. |
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i was just about to say the same thing as darlo bantam. i dont know a lot about football but 10 sucessful one tick trades would not increase your bank by 10 per cent unless you were staking the whole of your bank on each trade and even the best traders that i know would only use 10 per cent on any single trade.
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On any given day, 10% is an achievable target. It only becomes unachievable when you start taking in the probability of it re-occuring day after day, which in fact really has no effect on the chances of your trades going wrong technically, it's just a probability.
So if you can drag your head out from your bottoms and realise that then having an aim of 10% per day is fine and something you would feel happy about. The ten 1 tick trades statement has nothing to do with hitting a % of our bank it's just proving that you can make trades everyday and it is clearly possible to do so. The circles we are going around here is that people are taking what I'm saying as if I'm saying that you are going to make 10 one tick trades per day and I'm not, I'm just staing it's very possible to do so and you will have the odd losses but the successful trades will outweigh them if you play it smart. |
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We've debated this for a while and all you have to realise is that there are and will be plenty of markets that give you a better chance of it going in your favour than against you for that short period of time you are in the trade. And it's those markets you should be going for to take those ticks out of the market.
You're risk is actually low too, people haven't really thought about that side of things at all. If you are staking safely, you are generally taking an okay price or the correct price on the event anyway and being on the under 2.5 market that 2 goal leverage means you don't take that much of a loss as opposed to if you were being greedy on the under 1.5 market where your loss would be substantial. It's just risk management and assessment. Whether you can do it or not is a different story but I've been going well so I felt like documenting some for you in here. |
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has there been a thread with so many replies before selections?
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I really don't mind the debates, people thinking I'm getting angry, mad, defensive etc and yes I will get defensive about certain things because I know that what I am saying is correct.
There actually are markets and time-frames in those where the numbers are with you and not against you and you do have the edge but that's something people aren't taking into consideration at all and it's the most important part and why you would even go for a trade at all. That risk to you is low and the numbers are with you and not against you. Finding those markets is the other side to it and then them playing out to the probability etc which they generally will and when they don't you can take the losses. It's not a win every trade thing, it's giving yourself the best possibility of getting in and out as safe and fast as possible when the risk involved is in your favour. |
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So which markets do you think is best to do this?
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time decay markets that tick fast, horses when you get familiar with the markets but that is obviously risky too but I'm doing good with them so far, there are certain times of events where things tick faster too so knowing and learning those is good, tennis matches on people that hold serve consistently etc.
There's also plenty of markets in F1, Golf etc People trade all sorts of markets consistently and do well on them, I guess individually you just have to do it on something you feel confident and comfortable and have some knowledge with. |
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People don't take my word for it seriously just go do the research especially the numbers on everything because you will see that you can have those in your favour more than not in your favour and yes it is still gambling, every single trade even 1 tick is a gamble but it's a calculated gamble more than betting on a whole event panning out which gives you a much higher rate of success.
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Dime, now is the time to put your system into practice. Can you post up exactly your bets/trades etc are you on anything tonight?
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who are you trying to convince??? Why don't you just trade away and become very rich??? Or is it an ego thing?? Your are just repeating the same mantra now
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I'm only interested in footie so what markets are you looking at? Goals ?
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larsson I am doing it and not all of us want to see everyone fail... bringing some awareness to people that's all.
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It's not a case of wanting to see you fail , best of luck to you , but you have come out with some rubbish in fairness right from the thread title. Anyway I have said enough now so I will leave you to it
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If you want to take it as rubbish that's fine, carry on doing what you are doing and best of luck to you.
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not sure if it is of any use to you Dime mate, but Preston in my prog looks sh ite for goals, some skimming sure to be available at some point,,, ie, watch 365 stats and be sure they are palying as should be :)
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OP to post a bet would be nice at this point, to move the thread along
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yes, thread started off quite interestingly, degenerating into the usual slanging match. my advice, don't rise to the bait (easier said than done i know) but let's see some of your ideas in action. i'm interested in this.
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Agree winner, i know Dime from over the past several years, a decent straight talking guy that doesn't bother with the shi te off people usually, hope he holds out and carries on with his posts, be intersting to se how it does over 2-3-4 weeks of trading
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Still waiting for these bets ?
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He hasn't got time to pick out any bets - too busy posting on here
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Sorry I'm not going to actually bother posting real time it's too much hassle and effort and you guys are mostly a waste of time and I'm going to just focus on my trades and what I'm doing but here's what I did earlier for the purpose of this thread and the bet ID's are included if anyone has buddies inside betfair they can be verified.
Birmingham V Blackburn 3 Mins Back Under 2.5 £50 @ 1.85 6 Mins Lay Under 2.5 £51.39 @ 1.80 Profit: £1.32 11 Mins Back Under 2.5 £50 @ 1.74 (got 1.76 and 1.73 as shown below) 13 Mins Lay Under 2.5 £51.48 @ 1.68 Profit £1.41 14 Mins Back Under 2.5 £50 @ 1.63 15 Mins Back Under 2.5 £51.58 @ 1.58 Profit £1.50 Profit for game £4.23 Proof of bets: Placed Description Type Odds Stake (£) Liability (£) Potential Profit (£) Status 03-Nov-15 20:01:48 Birmingham v Blackburn Under 2.5 Goals - Over/Under 2.5 Goals Betfair Bet ID 1:57634946445 | Matched: 03-Nov-15 20:02:41 Lay 1.58 51.60 29.931. 51.60 Matched 03-Nov-15 20:01:07 Birmingham v Blackburn Under 2.5 Goals - Over/Under 2.5 Goals Betfair Bet ID 1:57634878132 | Matched: 03-Nov-15 20:01:13 Back 1.63 50.00 -- 31.50 Matched 03-Nov-15 19:58:39 Birmingham v Blackburn Under 2.5 Goals - Over/Under 2.5 Goals Betfair Bet ID 1:57634642487 | Matched: 03-Nov-15 20:00:09 Lay 1.68 51.60 35.09 51.60 Matched 03-Nov-15 19:58:27 Birmingham v Blackburn Under 2.5 Goals - Over/Under 2.5 Goals Betfair Bet ID 1:57634622146 | Matched: 03-Nov-15 19:58:33 Back 1.73 47.00 -- 34.31 Matched 03-Nov-15 19:56:45 Birmingham v Blackburn Under 2.5 Goals - Over/Under 2.5 Goals Betfair Bet ID 1:57634462702 | Matched: 03-Nov-15 19:56:51 Back 1.76 3.00 -- 2.28 Matched 03-Nov-15 19:52:07 Birmingham v Blackburn Under 2.5 Goals - Over/Under 2.5 Goals Betfair Bet ID 1:57634042508 | Matched: 03-Nov-15 19:54:38 Lay 1.80 51.39 41.11 51.39 Matched 03-Nov-15 19:51:48 Birmingham v Blackburn Under 2.5 Goals - Over/Under 2.5 Goals Betfair Bet ID 1:57634013059 | Matched: 03-Nov-15 19:51:54 Back 1.85 50.00 -- 42.50 Matched Cheerio. |
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"15 Mins Back Under 2.5 £51.58 @ 1.58"
LAy* |
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At some point u gonna lose that 50 quid
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if 3 goals went in within a minute of each other yes. Highly unlikely to happen.
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By the time that did happen we'd have made how many times £50 that when/if it did happen... it would actually be okay.
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It does not have to be 3 goals in a minute
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within a minute of each other. If a goal goes against you, you have time to get out. If it's around the 30 minute mark it's a minimal loss, depending on how early in the game will depend on how long you would have to wait for it to go back to a green position for you but from personal experience and other tools available, I know that if a goal goes against me around 30 minutes, it takes around 10 to 12 minutes before I'm back to 0 loss or I can take a small loss.
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If one goal goes straight against you and you get out immediately, you lose something like just under half your original stake.
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the normal betfair crash / suspend monkey snooze would suffice
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haha yeah there is that ^
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Darlo no it depends on the time the goal is scored actually, say i'm trading on under 2.5 at 70 minutes, a goal goes in I won't be losing no way near 50% if I decided to get out instantly (which I wouldn't anyway) because the price won't be jumping up that high with only 20 minutes left and 2 more goals needed.
Depends on the time left in the game as to how much it will go against you and the tempo of the game etc |