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Scalping/Trading Time Decay Markets - 10% Profit Per Day
Scalping/Trading Time Decay Markets - 10% Profit Per Day
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Replies: 391
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Larsson I'm fine with everything you said and I didn't mean the price doesn't matter because it does but on that particular bet "laying the draw" at kick off waiting for 1 goal, it actually didn't matter in regards to the bet because 1 goal going in was going to give me ticks regardless of the time etc and the price was correct for the outcome of the match so that was my point about the price not mattering on that particular bet/trade, I didn't say price doesn't matter overall.
And also this whole concept isn't new I never said it was new but most people have never really looked into it, it's about taking little ticks and calculating the best chance of that happening in a certain market for you. For instance if I'm going to try nab 5 ticks on under 2.5 in a game at kick off then I'll go find a game that is expected to be under 3 goals (price for unders being under 2.0), the recent form of both teams, the recent scorelines, the average time the first goal was scored for both teams, the average time the first goal was conceded for both teams, the average time the goals had been scored by both teams overall and any other little info I can find and then if they all tick the boxes then it's worth going for those 5 ticks. Most people are applying this to only football here too when really I'm spending 99% of my time scalping the horses which is where it works the best and not everyone will be able to do this it is very time intensive and also to CJ70 talking about giving away strategies that works means they won't work after a while is rubbish because it would just mean there's more money flowing in and out the market to trade and steal those little ticks. |
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Like right now just focusing on the idea of getting ticks in your favour... the man utd u19 vs cska u19.
There is a 95% chance a goal is going in as reflected in the over 0.5 goals market so again laying the draw at kick off and getting out instantly after 1 goal is scored makes sense and has a stupidly high probability of happening. Unfortunately the liquidity is terrible so it is a risk to enter as you may not get out safely, but those same odds will be on games with plenty of liquidity so it's little things like that to look out for. |
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Good luck to you if you believe that, but you are incorrect and it's simple supply and demand.
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That would be true if it's a static market but time decay markets NEED to move in a certain direction so technically that is incorrect
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Unless nobody is using the exchange it's impossible for you not to be matched unless you are staking too big for the particular market which would be idiotic in the first place.
If I pop a back of under 2.5 2 ticks below the current price and no goals are scored I will get matched, it's inevitable and then the same will go for the offset lay, the odds will be moved down regardless because they have to and my order will be filled. |
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...very good, you use different amounts for the back and the lay, how you work them out...please..
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Wisewords it was an example and at half time you could take the £6 loss on a £50 stake if the match didn't look like a goal was coming.
Plus the only information used on that example was the over 0.5 goal expectancy, which is just 1 ticked box. If you then go look at the average time a goal is scored, conceded etc and when majority of goals were scored by each team you'd have seen that most come in the 2nd half so they wouldn't have been ticked boxes so you wouldn't have taken it on. The initial bet was still worth taking the risk and like I said at half time you would have taken a £6 odd loss on a £50 stake which is acceptable, I wouldn't mind taking the loss but obviously you would gamble it because you do like to chase  Mogambo I have software that automatically does it for me but you can do it yourself on betfair by clicking the "show what if" box or whatever it's called or you can simply google "back lay calculator" etc |
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CJ70 the reality is you're not sitting in there and your scenario just doesn't happen, the markets move and the liquidity is there and this works for many people and that's just the facts.
People ARE making money scalping markets, if you are one of them or not depends on yourself but the simple fact is people are making money regularly doing it and there is no argument against that because it's true. |
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Sounds like you've got it all figured out, champ. Let the money flow in and the champagne lifestyle commence.
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And by the way you are placed in a queue when you put in a call at a price, like I said if you placed a bet 2 ticks below you are entered into a queue at that price, it doesnt matter if someone throws 5000 after you, you are before them in the queue and getting in the queue is also a big part of this but this thread is simply scratching the surface to show people what is available to them. If you don't get filled trying to get in because the price moves past you then you haven't risked anything anyway as you didn't get matched but if you do get in then your lay offset WILL get matched because you are offering the best price available at a certain time and it cannot shoot past you.
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Wisewords you always have to come in being a tool, knowing how it works and why it works and knowing that people ARE doing it making regular money doesn't mean everyone is going to do the same.
Nowhere in this thread have I said it's easy or risk free or guaranteed to work for everyone but the simple fact is it does work and if you can make it work for you too like the many that do it then it's a very good method to use. Simple as that. |
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You haven't read what I've said there have you? If you have a strategy that works you will be taking prices that are incorrect, there is only so much money available at the wrong price, the more people who want to get on the more chance that the price is not there. It's basic supply and demand.
You can make money doing what you are doing, yes. You can also lose money if you are getting in at the wrong time or cannot get out at the right time. I illustrated above how I used to use a similar strategy and that I no longer find it worthwhile to do so. I even went as far as suggesting how you would better improve your current strategy. It all comes down to the fact that if you have many people using the same strategy, you won't be getting value and someone will be cleaning up against you. That's true in life as well as betting on the exchange. |
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oh good, the word value has been chucked in...I do love a good value discussion thread
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You have said it's easy though dimebar. The thread title says 10 % per day , it doesn't come much easier than that. There has been a lot of good points made and you have just dismissed all out of hand. You are basically winging it , you have no edge over the market and there is no chance you will make 10% per day. Sorry to say it but it's completely delusional to expect that , by Christmas you will be a millionaire ffs
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0-0 full time, 'stupidly high probability' champion.
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What time is this Man Utd youth match goal meant to happen?
And how is your 10% doing? |
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don't think dime bet on that, he was just using it as an example of an event on at the time
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you're right mover, dime only backs winners.
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he's not letting them ride CJ waiting to get out at a lower price.
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what I meant is he's not letting them ride for the duration of the event. If the market goes the other way (either from just a price movement or a goal, he'll be taking the red)
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I haven't risked anything yet so it's fine, as stated in the opening post all best will be written here as they are done.
You guys are just feeders clutching at anything you can, missing the big picture as always because you don't grasp the whole picture. Simply, this is using all the data available to you to make calculated risks that you can get in and out of a certain market short term, multiple times per day. The 10% is a daily target, nothing wrong with having a target that IS achievable, sorry but it is achievable. And the idiots talking about being millionaires don't realise that you have to be realistic as this isn't just making 10% of your bank then making 10% of the new bank the following day, it's about having a set bank which is easily able to be moved through the markets and withdrawing whatever you make each day, and no you won't hit 10% everyday but you can hit it a lot of days by doing this, scientifically and technically that is correct so it really doesn't matter what your opinion is on it, it's fact. CJ70 it DOES have to move in a certain way it is regulated and to ensure that what you mentioned doesn't happen they cross-match multiple markets, i forgot everyone on here is an expert and nobody else knows anything. |
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You are the idiot if you can't take advice on board or at least try to answer it in a logical manner. And just because you say something is a fact doesn't mean it's a fact. I tried to have a sensible debate on a public forum but you are blind to your way of thinking and then throw your toys out of the pram.
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What part isn't fact about what I said?
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That's incorrect, dimebar8. You brought up a Romanian match in your first post, that market runs on the price in asia. If the asian price goes up, BF price jumps up.
The market moves in the way which most people want it to move, if more people are trying to sell rather than buy the price will go up. If someone buts £5k in front of you in a low liquidity game, you aren't getting out of that mess by the cross-matching bot! |
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dimebar, do you have some sort of personality disorder? get on with it you attention seeker.
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But Cj70 how often does that happen? rarely.
Again it's about taking the risk and even if that did happen, you are not screwed. |
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Do you know why that game was selected?
It ticked all the boxes for unders, the times the goals were expected were in the second half. I was trading in the first 10 and then a further few minutes half way through the middle of the match. The risk was in my favour and is why I traded that market. Simple as that, you are just throwing in all these "What if's" which yes they can happen but the likelihood is actually small |
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yeah CJ, it ticked all the boxes. DUG!
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Yes wisewords you don't just go on any random market do you? or is that how you operate?
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you're convinced this will work aren't you? of course you can make small profits through scalping markets. it's been around since the start of betfair. FACT. you will make many successful scalp trades. FACT. you will eventually hit a snag and 2 quick goals will wipe your trading stake in one brutal swipe. FACT.
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like picking up pennies in front of a steam roller, you will get quite a few and then you will get mashed
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think he just wants the attention. he's posted zero bets. he's aftertimed 2 opening bets which he stated. he put up an example that could be used for lay the draw, which failed miserably. i'll wait to see some bets
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wisewords it doesn't matter if I am convinced it will or not, I know it works because people are doing it. This doesn't matter if it works for me or not, the fact is that it works.
2 quick goals can wipe your "stake" but that's okay, you can take some losses... you're not taking bad prices when doing this... it's not like you are doing 1.08 jobs, you are taking the price of unders at the price they should be and in my opening post of course I am overstaking by using 50% of the bank this is purely for this thread but in reality you would use 2 to 5% wouldn't you? so big deal if you lose the odd bet when you are consistently making good trades. You can afford to lose and take losses, get that into your head everyone seems to think you get wiped out lol this is low risk strategy if you implement it which by judging of most of you, is not feasible to you. |
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Money management, self control and discipline before even thinking about how to extract money from an exchange and unfortunately most people don't have these qualities
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