Football
Backing Over 0.5 goals @ Half Time.
|
By:
How did you manage to mix up Hull with Swansea and your called Welshie
  |
|
By:
|
|
By:
11/5/15 - Over 0.5 @ HT
Arsenal v Swansea @ 1.31 won £100 stakes = £31.00 return Running p/l = £36.00 (excluding commission) |
|
By:
16/5/15 - Over 0.5 @ HT
Tottenham v Hull @ 1.3 Burnley v Stoke @ 1.38 Sunderland v Leicester @ 1.35 West Ham v Everton @ 1.3 |
|
By:
:D
|
|
By:
16/5/15 - Over 0.5 @ HT
Tottenham v Hull @ 1.3 won Burnley v Stoke @ 1.38 lost Sunderland v Leicester @ 1.35 lost West Ham v Everton @ 1.3 won £100 stakes = -£140.00 return Running p/l = -£104.00 (excluding commission) |
|
By:
Arsenal 0 Sunderland 0
[ This image is no longer available. ] |
|
By:
why half-time for every match? Half-time is not the opportune time for every single match. The prices will be more or less the same but some will look a lot better than others on paper at least. Stick to the most likely matches and ask yourself is there a better time in the second half to go in at a higher price
|
|
By:
20/5/15 - Over 0.5 @ HT
Arsenal v Sunderland @ 1.34 |
|
By:
20/5/15 - Over 0.5 @ HT
Arsenal v Sunderland @ 1.34 lost £100 stakes = -£100 return Running p/l = -£204.00 (excluding commission) |
|
By:
24/5/15 Over 0.5 @ HT
Crystal Palace v Swansea @1.32 Hull v Manchester United @ 1.34 Newcastle v West Ham @ 1.32 |
|
By:
24/5/15 Over 0.5 @ HT
Crystal Palace v Swansea @1.32 won Hull v Manchester United @ 1.34 lost Newcastle v West Ham @ 1.32 won £100 stakes = -£36.00 return Running p/l = -£240.00 (excluding commission) |
|
By:
This hasn't even come close to working. Will have to re-evaluate for next season.
Thanks for peoples input, it has all been appreciated. See you in two months. |
|
By:
What is the basis of this idea? I can't see what the logic is
fwics in the last five seasons 551 PL games have been 0-0 at HT, 145 have finished 0-0, so 406/551 winners. So to break even (before commission) you would have to have backed at an average of 1.357. With 4% comm, you are look at 1.372 just to break even. What is your average (winning) back price? Do you expect to beat that price consistently? |
|
By:
Welshie
I think the most important thing you've done on this thread is tell the truth. Well done. |
|
By:
|
|
By:
Because it is exatcly the same as laying 0-0 except your laying 0-0 at HT so you get to lay the 0-0 price at half what it was at KO
you don't add prices of separate events, you multiply them the op may have had a point if he had noticed a pricing inefficiency at half-time that could be exploited |
|
By:
|
|
By:
waccoe75 • May 24, 2015 10:16 PM BST
May 24, 2015 -- 9:56PM, never give up wrote: Tightfisted • May 23, 2015 10:33 PM BSTUnfortunately I'm still working about 2 days behind you...but it's better than nothing even though there may be a few mistakes and only the big layers are included Grin Layer BSP Avg waccoe75 399 410 IwonIwon 278 343 JonHig. 270 268 Knight Commander 142 142 marbellaman 69 73 zipper 19 13 deadbrain59 -3 5 never give up -5 44 Dave The Rave -7 -4 daveyworcs -13 -3 angeleyz -25 -25 bluebeard -68 -59 madhatters -86 -76 The Special One? -204 -143 TOTALS 823 1045 minus 204 to £10 level stakes now as TSO only does £100/£150 stakes hes about 3k down in 20 days LaughLaughLaughLaugh but as he don't bet hes on zero LaughLaugh Report • Quote • Block User GRANTCKING • May 24, 2015 10:18 PM BST -3k, jesus tso thats a lot of paper money |
|
By:
sorry wrong thread
 |
|
By:
Irrespective of price though
Look at laying 0-0 before KO - loads of challenges for this have been done on here and they all failes So all this opening poster is doing is axctly the same thing but making a move at HT rather than before KO The fact that a 0-0 lay bet has now been placed at HT just does in any way increase the chance of a goal being scored in the game, if the game was going to end a 0-0 it will still end 0-0 This is the thing you are going to catch some 0-0's when doing a laying 0-0 bet before KO, So the fact you make a move later int he game is going to give the same result if your going to catch a 0-0 As for the price, well of course its going to be of more value because your not laying 0-0 for 90mins you are laying 0-0 now for just 45mins And if the 1st half as a dull dire borefest with no shots on goal then the 0-0 price will be lower than half what oif the 0-0 price just before KO for some reason you have basically repeated what you said the first time without really thinking about what I had typed the price is all important. if the op had spotted an systematic misprice, if the 0-0 price at half-time was lower than statistical likelihood, then he may have had a point. in fact if he had noticed such a misprice at any consistent point in the game, then he may have had a basis for his method. it may look like the same strategy to you, but if there are different rules to entry (or exit) points, then it is a different strategy. the problem is that he has no evidence to support what he is doing, and in fact the data seems to show a less bad outcome by backing 0-0 instead of laying it. that's the only thing that really matters |