Football
Backing Over 0.5 goals @ Half Time.
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welshie hope you did my system made big profit today
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dont really matter about percentage mate , just lay the draw in the ht mkt for small stke say a 5er for a liabilty of say 8 . then bet the draw.ht say at 6to4 ish.if the ht is 0.0 you lose abit cos you win as you bet the draw. if its 1.0 either way you get your money bk , but if its 1.1 or two two you got double bouble, cos you bet the draw and layed the 0.0 , i only play in the championship .it makes good profit today
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Crackerpants, I am very interested in this and was hoping you were going to explain the system before the games kicked-off today.
I still don't understand though. Can you please explain in a different way? |
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**Revised running total**
11/2/15 - 3 bets/2 winners - (£34.00) 21/2/15 - 1 bet/0 winners - (£134.00) 22/2/15 - 1 bet/1 winner - (£94.00) 28/2/15 - 3 bets/3 winners - (£3.00) 3/3/15 - 1 bet/1 winner - £37.00 4/3/15 - 2 bets/2 winners - £90.00 Bets placed 11 - Staked £1,100. Winners/Losers - 9/2. Running p/l = 90.00 (excluding commission) |
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Why was TSO was saying this was laying 0-0 HT it's nothing like laying 0-0 HT
 When I first started getting into this I did find it interesting that 0-0 FT and 0-0 HT were so different, i.e. I initially expected 0-0 HT to be 1/2 of 0-0 FT, but it made sense after a while. |
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nothing like BACKING 0-0 HT. I know what I meant, sorry, hard today, early night I think :)
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OK CCJEFC. try it with the championship cos thats the best league where it works. click on a game what you think might be tight. you can just play one if you like until youve done it a bit. then one more two or three or as many as you like when youve built a profit up. il take you through it .click on the game you think will be tight.but goal scoring sides. go in the ht mkt and lay the 0.0.then go in the ht mkt and bet the draw in the same game.if the game is 0.0 at ht you only lose about two fifths of your stake. cos you bet the draw.if one team is winning at ht say 1.0 or 0.1 etc, you get all your money back less a bit of commision. cos you laid the 0.0.but the jackpot your realy playing for is a score draw at ht cos that way you got the lay o.o and you also got the draw.you only need one scoring draw for every 3 o.o s to profit if you play more than 1 game,try it for small stakes and see how you go i made good profit today
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surely just back 1-1 ht then/
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?
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No Lifter because 2-2 or even 3-3 would make you win as well.
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This sounds quite decent I might have to give this a go.
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ill give it a miss, but GL.
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"I never said anything on this thread about laying the HT 0-0"
The Special One Joined: 16 Apr 10 "isn't this same as laying the 0-0 HT score"   |
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Yes that should have said "CS"
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This isn't a challenge TSO.
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The opening poster is essentially laying 0-0 in the "CS" market but with a lower liability by waiting till HT
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I know its not a challenge, im just pointing out that the none of the "laying 0-0" threads succeeded
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Even that mufc who posts the jinx "get on the 0-0 score" threads has gone quiet as theres been a few 0-0's recently and he must have been hit by a few
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I would love the laying 0-0 to work, as its such a nice stress free bet, just lay it and forget it, no trading, no sitting at laptop etc..... but it simply doesn't, unless anyone shows me differently,
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TSO, there may, arguably, be value in laying 0-0 @ HT vs laying 0-0 to FT in some games.
I don't know myself. There are some things about this I think in pullein's book, but ... I think there might be value, but not across the board. The HT/FT isn't a new idea to be analysed, I'm sure many have already looked at this as it's all recorded with a zillion stats there to crunch. I dabble in HT but it depends on the game. I have theories, but not saying :) |
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TSO, I think the original poster is saying he has noticed that if a prem game is 0-0 at half time chances are if you back over 0.5 second half there is a good chance of a goal. Sure you will hit 0-0's along the way at full time but chances are it will not be many games. I guess trying this over a season could turn out to be profitable.
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And the Prem has a low 0-0 rate over a season.
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Yes there are less 0-0's in the premier league but they do occur, and the OP is not making any attempts to dodge them
So really the profit will be down to number of 0-0's that occur, detailed stats would tell you if your going to be profitable or not before even placing a bet, look back say last 20 years premier league results and see hoe many were 0-0 and HT and not 0-0 at FT, crunch those stats and bet accordingly if the stats are in your favour |
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I disagree with looking at stats from previous years. Every game is different
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*on
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Why 20 years isn't that abit much?
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Wouldnt that give a more accurate % stat that say the last 10 years?
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If your betting on % stats then its better to have a bigger sample as possible to see if its going to be worthwhile
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Maybe but the league has changed so much since the older days.
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true, so I would look at stats from year 2000 onwards
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what would you do with said stat TSO?
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ah okay, knock yourself out mate.
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BTW you say backing a goal at HT is the same as backing a goal at the start, but less liability, yes? Well that's the nature of inplay, its the same with over 2.5 aswell. If you notice a lot of goals are in second half then why get on at the start, I regularly get on over 1.5 goals at HT in Brazil/Arg @ around 3s.. whereas if I got on at start it would be around 1.4 and no where near as profitable.
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But of course the people driving the markets will have the exact same stats in front of them, and this is as an easily categorised statistical "event" (as you've just said, kind of) so ... unless you can bring some edge to it?
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you're forgetting a huge diff in odds
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