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Estudiantes - Any thoughts ?
Estudiantes - Any thoughts ?
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That's one of the first lessons I learnt. That when I lost I immediately headed for the goals markets and the lays of under 6.5 etc. I've since avoided them and I've done much better.
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i don't think anyone except bookies can profit long term from them. I did some quite intensive mathematical models on them, and just couldn't come out with anything decent.
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My favourite bet that I use is the lay of the away team leading at HT.
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the only time I will entertain a 'goals bet' is if the market shows a clear goals fix.
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Betting on goals is like betting on black/red on roulette
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Exactly!!
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independent exclusive events, but somehow people find the relationship in the outcomes lol
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That's the conclusion I came to.
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"oh, its been red the last 8 times, it's got to be black this time!!!" lol
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OVER 2.5 FULL BANK
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oh **** it's 0-0 at 72 mins.. red out for loss of majority of bank
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2-1 FT!
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the difference is, people go with the trend with goals. They say "oh, 8 of 9 games gone ov 2.5, def goals in this....nailed on.........full bank job"
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if I was looking for an edge in goals markets, I would be analysing shot/goal ratios, but can't be bothered with any of that.........it's still a lottery
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surely there must be a long term way to beat the goal market though?
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Do you know that in the premier league it is an average of 9.5 shots per goal...............whereas barca have only 5 shots per goal
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that's because Barca walk the ball in!
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What do you think the longest run of games under 2.5 there has been in the PL? Surely no more than 20 games?
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I do actually bet on football (not just for fun), but I only do AH, nothing else
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my theory wouldn't work as games kick off at the same time.
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but if you bet on them all at over 2.5.. increasing stakes each match.. with a big enough bank surely you can't lose?
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same with anything, if you keep increasing stakes, you cannot lose...........but do you have an infinite bank?
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48% are unders, 52% are overs - that is red or black
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it's crazy though.. it's like betting £20,000 to win £2
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one of the reasons casinos put limits in place, to stop people doing martingale
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yep, it's not worth it, because you are only ever winning your initial stake, which is miniscule
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martingale can work great short term for you. especially if you are shrewd with your choices and don't think martingale is a full proof method..
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fool*
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I think Martingaling can work short term if you bet shrewdly with decreasing frequency.. I guess I'm just naiive to this game
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Martingaling can go wrong at any time. First time you try it you could get a run of 15 blacks while you're backing red.
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What do you think of this system... you have a bank of say circa 15k
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your aim is to win 4 lays of prices 1.8-2ish in a row. you deposit £10 at a time. four successful lays pay out ~£150
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Martingale doesn't work FACT. If it did we would all be in clover
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It's only the same as pricing up any other market. For example Bayern Munich v BATE Under 0.5 is currently 34.0 (3% give or take) when the probability is double that but still only a 6% probability (you can imagine the length of my losing runs!)