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answer me this.. if you consistently cash out a certain percentage of bets that turn out to be losers, say 6 out of 10 bets.. then you are surely enhancing your chanceS?
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it comes down 2 whether u rate ur own ability 2 find value at end of day neways. obv if ur a total mug and ur having mug bets from the start, then there is no winning whichever way u play it. not saying ur a mug by the way
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If you're laying at low odds and 6 out of 10 "lose" then you're making good lays at low odds. It doesn't matter about your initial stake.
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to be honest....and this is bad i know and i kick myself for it mathmatically, ... but if i make a bet and i get a green of 50% of my stake im likely to take it
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shrewd punters don't chase, end of
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It is all a mental game. I recommend you all to read a book called "the mental game of poker" by a guy called Jared Tendler. It is about poker obviously, but all the topics are completely relevant to sports betting.
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backing cheltenham at half time today.. MUG one.
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laying catania on friday at HT... amazing one.
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lol, this is gud discussion actually
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i just think its rare u shud start watching a game and then develop a theory. i think if u haven't got half an idea b4 the match starts wot u think is gonna happen, then u shud prob just stay away
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then boom it goes 2-2 on 92 mins and your bet would have been a loser.. see my dilemma..
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Like I said, a lot of it is a mental game problem. We tend to remember the bad losses more than the winners. So when you have a bet which you could have greened out of at 1.10 with 2 minutes to go, and the other side get an equaliser, it sticks in your memory, you lose confidence, and start looking to "bank your wins". But this is not the right way to do things. Bookies don't let emotions get in the way, and to be profitable long-term, neither should we
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But you should only lay at 1.06 if you think that it's a longer than a 1.06 chance. Mind, I do understand the mentality of greening if you backed at high price and want to protect winnings. The value of 1.06 is less likely to be a larger error than the back you made in the first place.
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greed and emotion r/were my 2 main vices. i hav all but gotten rid of the greed, am happy 2 just grind it out now. emotion slips in on rare occasions, like wen River plate r involved 4 xample 4 sum reason
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so the only time i should lay off is when i'm CONVINCED there will be a comeback.. and 1.06 is excellent value?
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like in this match, I wasn't convinced but I thought there was a 2/10 chance that they would get an equaliser. i layed at 1.07 1.06 so was it value or not?
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no haven't read it, sounds slightly insulting 2 my intelligence lol
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Dr. Steven Peters is a really good psychologist. Helped out laods of top sportpeople like Ronnie O and Bradley Wiggins. Based in Sheffield
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worked out well wit Ronnie lol
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He came back and won the World Champs after working with him.
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yes, that's right wisewords, Ronnie said it was all down to him that he won
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yeah 2/10 is obviously not the REAL VALUE. i have no idea what the real value was? it was estimated at 1.06/1.07 by the bookies.. which is a 6 or 7% chance yes?
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mite get that book so, thanx 4 that.
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My former running coach knows Roonie O and said that he 100% wouldn't have won it without Steve Peters
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people seriously underestimate the mental game...............like seriously
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I play poker for a living, and it wasn't until I mastered my mental game that I became a profitable player.
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I agree. I'm an amateur runner and my mental game can effect my performance ALOT.
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Look at Tiger Woods. Is his technique any different? Did he break an arm? Did he get fat? No, the only difference between the old tiger and the tiger now, is that his mental game is in the wrong place.
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What was the main lesson you got from that bbkboy?
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