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Estudiantes - Any thoughts ?

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Replies: 400
By:
wisewords
When: 04 Dec 12 01:15
answer me this.. if you consistently cash out a certain percentage of bets that turn out to be losers, say 6 out of 10 bets.. then you are surely enhancing your chanceS?
By:
joe9000
When: 04 Dec 12 01:16
it comes down 2 whether u rate ur own ability 2 find value at end of day neways. obv if ur a total mug and ur having mug bets from the start, then there is no winning whichever way u play it. not saying ur a mug by the way
By:
Darlo Bantam
When: 04 Dec 12 01:16
If you're laying at low odds and 6 out of 10 "lose" then you're making good lays at low odds. It doesn't matter about your initial stake.
By:
bkkboy
When: 04 Dec 12 01:17

Dec 4, 2012 -- 1:15AM, wisewords wrote:


answer me this.. if you consistently cash out a certain percentage of bets that turn out to be losers, say 6 out of 10 bets.. then you are surely enhancing your chanceS?


Mathematically, this is almost impossible. You will not lose 6 out of 10 1.10 bets. You shouldn't even be losing more than 1 out of 10

By:
wisewords
When: 04 Dec 12 01:17

Dec 4, 2012 -- 1:15AM, SirFresh wrote:


I tend to green out if I've had a big bet on the selection.My view is that I am happy to lose out on a few extra quid by laying off (usually just my stake) at a short price as if I don't and the bet loses, I will chase and it will cost me more money overall as my head will be gone.


but that surely suggests you are overstaking by chasing. if you can keep cool when chasing then you will become much more successful than a bottling chaser

By:
chris77
When: 04 Dec 12 01:17
to be honest....and this is bad i know and i kick myself for it mathmatically, ... but if i make a bet and i get a green of 50% of my stake im likely to take it
By:
joe9000
When: 04 Dec 12 01:17
shrewd punters don't chase, end of
By:
bkkboy
When: 04 Dec 12 01:18
It is all a mental game. I recommend you all to read a book called "the mental game of poker" by a guy called Jared Tendler. It is about poker obviously, but all the topics are completely relevant to sports betting.
By:
wisewords
When: 04 Dec 12 01:19

Dec 4, 2012 -- 1:16AM, joe9000 wrote:


it comes down 2 whether u rate ur own ability 2 find value at end of day neways. obv if ur a total mug and ur having mug bets from the start, then there is no winning whichever way u play it. not saying ur a mug by the way


i'd say i have my good days and bad days. sometimes i make some amazing calls and other days i make some mug ones..

By:
wisewords
When: 04 Dec 12 01:19
backing cheltenham at half time today.. MUG one.
By:
wisewords
When: 04 Dec 12 01:20
laying catania on friday at HT... amazing one.
By:
joe9000
When: 04 Dec 12 01:20
lol, this is gud discussion actually
By:
joe9000
When: 04 Dec 12 01:21
i just think its rare u shud start watching a game and then develop a theory. i think if u haven't got half an idea b4 the match starts wot u think is gonna happen, then u shud prob just stay away
By:
wisewords
When: 04 Dec 12 01:21

Dec 4, 2012 -- 1:17AM, bkkboy wrote:


Dec  4, 2012 --  1:15AM, wisewords wrote:answer me this.. if you consistently cash out a certain percentage of bets that turn out to be losers, say 6 out of 10 bets.. then you are surely enhancing your chanceS?Mathematically, this is almost impossible. You will not lose 6 out of 10 1.10 bets. You shouldn't even be losing more than 1 out of 10


you're right but the prices can rise again if a game livens up.. so you may have traded out at 1.06 with your team 2-0 up, but it might have gone 2-1 and the odds risen to 1.3ish..

By:
wisewords
When: 04 Dec 12 01:22
then boom it goes 2-2 on 92 mins and your bet would have been a loser.. see my dilemma..
By:
bkkboy
When: 04 Dec 12 01:22
Like I said, a lot of it is a mental game problem. We tend to remember the bad losses more than the winners. So when you have a bet which you could have greened out of at 1.10 with 2 minutes to go, and the other side get an equaliser, it sticks in your memory, you lose confidence, and start looking to "bank your wins". But this is not the right way to do things. Bookies don't let emotions get in the way, and to be profitable long-term, neither should we
By:
Darlo Bantam
When: 04 Dec 12 01:23
But you should only lay at 1.06 if you think that it's a longer than a 1.06 chance. Mind, I do understand the mentality of greening if you backed at high price and want to protect winnings. The value of 1.06 is less likely to be a larger error than the back you made in the first place.
By:
wisewords
When: 04 Dec 12 01:23

Dec 4, 2012 -- 1:21AM, joe9000 wrote:


i just think its rare u shud start watching a game and then develop a theory. i think if u haven't got half an idea b4 the match starts wot u think is gonna happen, then u shud prob just stay away


i agree you should have some sort of idea.. but it doesn't always pan out in a predictable manner. you've got to be able to adapt and read the game and what the likely outcome is

By:
Darlo Bantam
When: 04 Dec 12 01:23

Dec 4, 2012 -- 1:22AM, wisewords wrote:


then boom it goes 2-2 on 92 mins and your bet would have been a loser.. see my dilemma..


But only if in the long run 1.06 is a good lay.

By:
joe9000
When: 04 Dec 12 01:24
greed and emotion r/were my 2 main vices. i hav all but gotten rid of the greed, am happy 2 just grind it out now. emotion slips in on rare occasions, like wen River plate r involved 4 xample 4 sum reason
By:
wisewords
When: 04 Dec 12 01:25
so the only time i should lay off is when i'm CONVINCED there will be a comeback.. and 1.06 is excellent value?
By:
bkkboy
When: 04 Dec 12 01:25

Dec 4, 2012 -- 1:24AM, joe9000 wrote:


greed and emotion r/were my 2 main vices. i hav all but gotten rid of the greed, am happy 2 just grind it out now. emotion slips in on rare occasions, like wen River plate r involved 4 xample 4 sum reason


Joe, have a read of "The Chimp Paradox" by Dr.Steven Peters, I am sure it will help

By:
bkkboy
When: 04 Dec 12 01:25

Dec 4, 2012 -- 1:25AM, wisewords wrote:


so the only time i should lay off is when i'm CONVINCED there will be a comeback.. and 1.06 is excellent value?


I said you should never lay off, but I understand people will disagree..............whether they will be profitable long term is a different matter

By:
wisewords
When: 04 Dec 12 01:25
like in this match, I wasn't convinced but I thought there was a 2/10 chance that they would get an equaliser. i layed at 1.07 1.06 so was it value or not?
By:
joe9000
When: 04 Dec 12 01:26
no haven't read it, sounds slightly insulting 2 my intelligence lol
By:
Darlo Bantam
When: 04 Dec 12 01:26

Dec 4, 2012 -- 1:25AM, wisewords wrote:


so the only time i should lay off is when i'm CONVINCED there will be a comeback.. and 1.06 is excellent value?


For every time you lay off at 1.06, there has to be a comeback better than the odds 1.06 represents. Otherwise you're losing money in the long run.

By:
wisewords
When: 04 Dec 12 01:26
Dr. Steven Peters is a really good psychologist. Helped out laods of top sportpeople like Ronnie O and Bradley Wiggins. Based in Sheffield
By:
joe9000
When: 04 Dec 12 01:27
worked out well wit Ronnie lol
By:
bkkboy
When: 04 Dec 12 01:27

Dec 4, 2012 -- 1:26AM, joe9000 wrote:


no haven't read it, sounds slightly insulting 2 my intelligence lol


lol, it's not. This guy has coached all the top sportsmen/women on the mental side of things. We all have a chimp inside us, we are naturally irrational/emotional animals. The chimp is the emotions in your brain. This book is really good.

By:
wisewords
When: 04 Dec 12 01:27
He came back and won the World Champs after working with him.
By:
Darlo Bantam
When: 04 Dec 12 01:27

Dec 4, 2012 -- 1:25AM, wisewords wrote:


like in this match, I wasn't convinced but I thought there was a 2/10 chance that they would get an equaliser. i layed at 1.07 1.06 so was it value or not?


I'd say that was a fair lay then. In your interpretation, which is all that essentially counts.

By:
bkkboy
When: 04 Dec 12 01:28
yes, that's right wisewords, Ronnie said it was all down to him that he won
By:
wisewords
When: 04 Dec 12 01:28
yeah 2/10 is obviously not the REAL VALUE. i have no idea what the real value was? it was estimated at 1.06/1.07 by the bookies.. which is a 6 or 7% chance yes?
By:
joe9000
When: 04 Dec 12 01:28
mite get that book so, thanx 4 that.
By:
wisewords
When: 04 Dec 12 01:29
My former running coach knows Roonie O and said that he 100% wouldn't have won it without Steve Peters
By:
bkkboy
When: 04 Dec 12 01:29
people seriously underestimate the mental game...............like seriously
By:
bkkboy
When: 04 Dec 12 01:31
I play poker for a living, and it wasn't until I mastered my mental game that I became a profitable player.
By:
wisewords
When: 04 Dec 12 01:31
I agree. I'm an amateur runner and my mental game can effect my performance ALOT.
By:
bkkboy
When: 04 Dec 12 01:32
Look at Tiger Woods. Is his technique any different? Did he break an arm? Did he get fat? No, the only difference between the old tiger and the tiger now, is that his mental game is in the wrong place.
By:
wisewords
When: 04 Dec 12 01:32
What was the main lesson you got from that bbkboy?
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