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Estudiantes - Any thoughts ?

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Replies: 400
By:
joe9000
When: 04 Dec 12 00:54
wot.a.save
By:
wisewords
When: 04 Dec 12 00:54
hope you've all greened out by the way
By:
joe9000
When: 04 Dec 12 00:54
san martin have awoke
By:
wisewords
When: 04 Dec 12 00:57
made up my luck has changed :)
By:
chris77
When: 04 Dec 12 00:58
i greened the instant they scored lol, my pants were still on fire hehe
By:
joe9000
When: 04 Dec 12 00:58
that reminds me, if any1 didn't c it, vickerys column on bbc this week is bout the diff league formats in s america
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/20578920
By:
wisewords
When: 04 Dec 12 00:59
will have a read, thanks joe. what did you think of the mexico playoff final?
By:
wisewords
When: 04 Dec 12 01:00
22222222
By:
bkkboy
When: 04 Dec 12 01:00
:(
By:
wisewords
When: 04 Dec 12 01:00
what's wrong?
By:
bkkboy
When: 04 Dec 12 01:00
had ov 1.5, and took 50% loss after goal
By:
wisewords
When: 04 Dec 12 01:01
Cry
By:
wisewords
When: 04 Dec 12 01:01
i'm sick of taking a red. it's my downfall. i leave them now
By:
wisewords
When: 04 Dec 12 01:01
would rather keep my conviction than the awful feeling of it coming in after i red out
By:
joe9000
When: 04 Dec 12 01:01
mexican was poor i thought man. was happy they won and that Martinez got assist 4 2nd goal but Toluca were v poor
By:
wisewords
When: 04 Dec 12 01:02
yeah Toluca disappointing. 2 quickfire goals in a boring match
By:
wisewords
When: 04 Dec 12 01:02
WISEWORDS. IS. BACK. Excited
By:
wisewords
When: 04 Dec 12 01:02
cheers estudiantes aka newcastle united Love
By:
bkkboy
When: 04 Dec 12 01:02
I don't usually get out of anything, but because it was such a borefest, I thought I would just cut my losses for once, silly me
By:
chris77
When: 04 Dec 12 01:02
i cashd on shalke yesterday
By:
chris77
When: 04 Dec 12 01:03
that hurt when they scored
By:
wisewords
When: 04 Dec 12 01:03
bkk, i had a nightmare weekend for backing out of stuff.
By:
wisewords
When: 04 Dec 12 01:04
so i won't do it anymore. if i lay a team and they go on to win, then i need to rethink my selection. not change my conviction every 5 mins
By:
bkkboy
When: 04 Dec 12 01:04
I don't really understand why people do it to be honest. I see it all the time "greened out". If you identify value, then let it roll. You lose more in the long run by doing it than you win. And I just did it!
By:
chris77
When: 04 Dec 12 01:05
there is honestly no way of doing it, i have kicked myself massivly for cashing out, and like wise for not, just back your hunch, and role with the punches
By:
wisewords
When: 04 Dec 12 01:05
lost out on a £450 win twice over the weekend. didn't bet on 1 of them, and took a £3 profit on the other
By:
wisewords
When: 04 Dec 12 01:05
instead of +£900.
By:
wisewords
When: 04 Dec 12 01:05
of shots i clearly identified as value, but then bottled it.
By:
wisewords
When: 04 Dec 12 01:06
however, i do think 'greening out' at prices below 1.1 is acceptable if you've backed at price evens or higher.
By:
wisewords
When: 04 Dec 12 01:07
still cutting your profits slightly by doing that, but surely it's sensible?
By:
bkkboy
When: 04 Dec 12 01:07

Dec 4, 2012 -- 1:07AM, wisewords wrote:


still cutting your profits slightly by doing that, but surely it's sensible?


Tis not.

By:
wisewords
When: 04 Dec 12 01:08
hmmm.. explain why it isn't please..
By:
Darlo Bantam
When: 04 Dec 12 01:10
I can see both sides of the argument, but I agree it's not necessarily sensible. Greening out for greening out's sake is giving back value - albeit in this occasion small which is why I see both sides of the argument - and in the long run will stunt your winnings.

But everyone has their own opinions. And it possibly depends why you backed it in the first place.
By:
bkkboy
When: 04 Dec 12 01:11
Ok, in a nutshell, let's say we back something at 2.00, which we estimate true odds to be 1.9. And everytime we can green out at 1.10 or less, we do it. So basically, the value you initially identified has disappeared, because the true odds you receive on your trade will be 1.90, and probably a bit less. This discounts the times that you are in losing positions and unable to trade out, so basically, you are losing when you are losing, and cutting into the initial value you identified. It's a mental thing, because people don't have confidence in their ability to identify value and always looking to "book the win"
By:
joe9000
When: 04 Dec 12 01:12
good teams score late. thats all u need 2 have in ur head imo
By:
wisewords
When: 04 Dec 12 01:13
so you should let them all roll... the losers roll and the winners roll.. and if you're backing value you will come out on top slightly?
By:
bkkboy
When: 04 Dec 12 01:14

Dec 4, 2012 -- 1:13AM, wisewords wrote:


so you should let them all roll... the losers roll and the winners roll.. and if you're backing value you will come out on top slightly?


yes exactly. The only thing you should worry about is abiding by proper bankroll management rules, so you can afford to take the rough with the smooth

By:
wisewords
When: 04 Dec 12 01:14
say, out of 100 bets, you get 55 winners and 45 losers. backing each at evens with £10 stake, you will be up £100?
By:
chris77
When: 04 Dec 12 01:14
if cash outs werent there then we wouldnt be having this conversation
By:
SirFresh
When: 04 Dec 12 01:15
I tend to green out if I've had a big bet on the selection.

My view is that I am happy to lose out on a few extra quid by laying off (usually just my stake) at a short price as if I don't and the bet loses, I will chase and it will cost me more money overall as my head will be gone.
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