Of course,but nobody is good enough to price up a race and say it's a bet at say 6/1,but not at 11/2.

If I make it a bet at 6/1,you might make it a bet at 5/1,one persons value is another persons under priced horse


The one who's correct the vast majority of the time will come out ahead over the long term though. If you can consistently lay 6-1 shots at 5-1 you'll, obviously, be a long term winner.

The horse racing markets also have the greater volatility and difference in pre-off prices. You have far more chance of getting matched at what you perceive as value.

Ken

Got no idea at all how to price events - what about the true odds section in the RFO , is that any good ?

Buzzer If you back 5/1 shots at 6/1 you will only win in the long term if the horse wins.

Getting good value losers does not pay the bills

Oh christ

buzzer, dont you ever get bored? I stopped bothering giving advice about 3 years ago

Interesting thread.....

Whilst I wouldnt disagree with Kens points, nonetheless imo there is a lot of subjectivity in pricing up games. Quoting the example on here, the Madrid/City game is obviously priced with no team news...........

A lot of punters would aubscribe to the view of finding winners at the best price......in effect this is " semi " value betting, and I do find myself taking this approach far more than is generally recommended. Whilst I wont be placing a bet on the Madrid/City game just now, my own opinion is that City may well take a " park the bus " mentality to the Bernabau, and I would defo be looking to back the draw at best price nearer the time.

It's not patronising in any way!
If you can lay 6-1 shots at 5-1 you win long term, no ifs or buts about it end of story.
If, as you say, you've been making it pay for over 20 years but fail to understand this simple, basic fact you must be the most fortunate person alive and are also long odds on to lose the lot over the next 20 years

In reply to Joshua...

Of course there is a lot of subjectivity in pricing up games - as punters all we can do is try and assess as best we can what the theoretical price should be. And every punter, bookmaker and statistician will price a given outcome differently. (If we all agreed on what the odds should be there would be no opportunities to place a favourable bet.)

In order to maximise profit we simply need to get as close as we can to the theoretically correct price.  The tricky part is there is no way of knowing exactly what the true odds actually are so this is easier said than done.

Not necessarily, because you might be better off laying the bet.

or backing what you would lay??

A case in point is the Spartak match that has just finished.....draw was backed all the way down to 1.01 and got turned over. The amount of injury time was scandalous on top of a very soft penalty ...... how would I know that laying the draw after 90 mins was in fact value?? What indicators are there?

Hello

Alternatively you could just use oddschecker and look for prices that are out of sync with the other bookmakers. In this day and age there is enough information out there to use, that you don't need to be able to price correctly.

beating the odds I would agree with ..... however if you have the happy knack of finding winners and making a profit, then you are actually getting the value without conciously looking for it.

Interesting you should mention the Liverpool/Arsenal game.....from memory the home win was actually shorter on here than it was at a lot of the bookies pre match.

That was R I G G E D.

Strange word to censor, are they trying to tell us something?

I wouldn't have been backing them at anything under the 7/4 mark.

Possession was even and whilst Liverpool had more attempts on goal they lacked any cutting edge and never looked like scoring.

Easy in hindsight, but how many games did Liverpool win at home last season?  31%. Or less than 1 in 3! How they could be rated at 50% to beat top four opposition with an even more toothless side than last season is beyond me.

Most people don't pay enough attention to the odds and just lump on who they think will win regardless, which is why such opportunities arise week after week.

Points 2 onwards are easy enough, the problem is always the pricing up - use a model or instinct based on previous matches? And is getting 95% accuracy a step in the right direction, look at someone like Tobermoreys ratings, there's regularly a big discrepancy. And if the means of pricing is always getting so close to bookie prices, then the chances of seeing a 20% pricing difference is very small with bets being very few and far between, particularly for football (maybe valid for horseracing though).

Yes Ken, I'll happily pass a proposition where the odds are good, but I don't believe will take place.

Obviously there will reach a point where anything is worth a bet if the odds are ridiculously beyond what they should be, but that doesn't tend to be the case in reality with prices usually hovering around the expected market price.

Ken excellent thread. One point however. In your opening set of rules
you state

5) Only bet if you have at least a 20%
in your favour, that is for example 6/5
about an 1/1 chance.



Which is fair enough. But later on when talking about Real Madrid at 1.7 you say



...probably a backer. Is that just a guess or not ?

I would be a backer at 1.85, a layer at 1.60.



To follow " Rule 5 " surely you would not be a backer
until the price was 2.04 and a layer when it was 1.36

Live4







06 Sep 12 13:46
Joined:


18 Mar 04
| Topic/replies: 1,033 | Blogger: Live4's blog



Here are five golden rules point to follow if you want to be a successful punter:

1. Only bet on what you know

2. Learn how to manage your bankroll and stake accordingly

3. Understand that a good bet does not always win and a bad bet does not always lose

4. Don't chase your losses, just move on to the next opportunity

5. Never place a bet unless you are confident the odds are in your favour


Rate reply:





very sensible comments , most of what else is written on this topic is of little use to a newbie punter

Stating the obvious is what the thread title should be, here are a few more obvious remarks

1/ Only bet what you can afford to lose
2/ Betting is a mugs game
3/ Only place money on winning bets
4/ Don't chase
5/ Only bet on what you know
6/ Most people don't want to spend hours studying form/analysing stats they just want the thrill from a winning bet and don't always seek the best possible price

Oh and good luck!