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These 127 comments are related to the topic:
How to win betting on football.
How to win betting on football.
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Replies: 127
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on under 2.5 & 2-0 home team will trade
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I agree comparing across countries is difficult....hmmmmm probably a backer
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how was that not 1-0
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Sorry Ken i was talking about if the game was at the Etihad. I can't find any prices up for this fixture yet, only the game at the Bernabeu.
these were my (rough) prices. City 6/4 Draw 9/4 Real 13/8 Just wondered if you agreed, disagreed, etc. |
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...probably a backer. Is that just a guess or not ?
I would be a backer at 1.85, a layer at 1.60. |
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Always use this site for it's exact purpose - trade. I can't believe that there are people out there who still don't green. Complete madness in my opinion.
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yes just a guess
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an educated guess as you would say...just my opinion nothing more. I haven't spent hours analysing form and statistics
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biscuit, subjectivity comes into these group matches, betting
dependent on the needs of both sides at the time of the match. As a one off match at ManC I would have the betting the other way, Real 7/4, ManC 15/8, draw 9/4 (102%). |
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Mariner, what do you do when it's not possible
to 'green up' ? |
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There's been times when I've took a red but it's all about keeping them down to a minimum. Nobody has a 100% strike rate.
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Do you green out of a lot of winning bets also?
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Every winning bet, that should say
Ever let any run to the end? |
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No. Never. You have to take each bet on it's merits. I mostly lay away teams at anything from 4 to 6 and then green when the home team scores. If the away team scores first then you've just got to hope that there's an equaliser. Then you have the chance to get out. It's just a strategy that works for me.
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Mariner, ever worked out whether or not you
would have better off by letting your bets their course ? You may be better off. |
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I don't ever think about it and maybe I'm not as better off in the long run. It would be hard to quantify. I've been doing this for 4 years now and make so many trades every week that I can't keep track.
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Biscuit check ur pm :)
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I very rarely trade out because I have faith in my ability to place winning bets. Unless you are placing more bad bets than good ones trading out early will theoretically cost you money in the long run.
You don't need to make a profit from every individual bet to be a successful gambler, you just need to win more than you lose. |
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Slightly misleading post title. All very well knowing how to price up and compare teams objectively but at the end of the day it doesnt mean you will win. If it were that easy, Ken we would all be doing it
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Precisely gawd....the first point says 'Seriously learn how to price up'....Ken then said his 1.7 price on Real was an educated guess
Point 8 is the main point |
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Any sensible punter understands that luck is irrelevant because it evens out in the long run.
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You have to back value, for some reason people can't get their heads around this!
People who take the best/biggest odds with the books get restricted heavily/banned and are classed as arbers! Why is this do you think, why do the books bother banning these people if prices do not matter and it's only winning bets that matters? People say beating the odds doesn't mean you'll win, over time of course it does! What's so hard to understand it's very basic mathematics! Two punters back the same selections... 1st bet, punter A bets at 5-4 for £100 punter b gets on at 4-5 for £100, selection wins both happy? 2nd bet punter A gets on at even money punter b gets on at 4-5 both for £100, selection loses can you see where this is going, even over those 2 bets, which is obviously an extremely small sample. They've both had a winner and a loser but..............if you can't see why you need to be beating the odds you should give up now. |
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Understand all that buzzer but it's all subjective; what's value to one isn't necessarily to another.
If you back Real pre kick off at 1.7 and odds then go out to 1.9 (you haven't got value according to your logic). |
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they dont care about value, they just want bets that win
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The most important thing is staking, imo.
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Why's value subjective if you get restricted/banned for taking the best prices?
It's because the books make a decision that you can beat them over the long term because of the prices you take, they tag these people as arbers which is often not the case it's just that they are price sensitive and only bet when the odds are in their favour. It doesn't mean they are going to win all their bets and clean the books out it just means over a period of time they'll win so the books make a decision they don't want their business! |
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I've not been banned from Betfair for taking the best price
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MrB, Every bet made is a guess, when the event
hasn't taken place, some are more educated than others. I'm sure there are many who do seek the value, but well outnumbered by those who think differently. Don't follow the sheep. BTW I am less confident of betting in matches between clubs from different countries, and don't bet very often in such matches. |
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Have you ever paid the premium charge?
It's a fallacy to think only traders / fast pic merchants pay the premium charge on here. Market makers on here operate on very small margins but can turn over very large amounts of money meaning if they make just under 1% on turnover after commission but can turnover 250k a week they can still make decent money, what do these market makers rely on do you think? |
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Value to one person,is not value to someone else.
I don't bet football,horses are my game,but I might think a certain horse is value at 3/1,the mere fact that you get laid at that price tells you someone thinks differently. The myth of value,is just part of making the game pay |
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meltdown 06 Sep 12 03:18
I think i disagree with every point here. Why? |
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Joined:
14 Apr 11 | Topic/replies: 4,887 | Blogger: TRD.Racing's blog Value to one person,is not value to someone else. I don't bet football,horses are my game,but I might think a certain horse is value at 3/1,the mere fact that you get laid at that price tells you someone thinks differently. The myth of value,is just part of making the game pay How many make the game pay? Do you think any make it pay long term taking under the true odds? |
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Buzzer In this day and age on the horses,a horse is generally to big a price for a reason,and that reason is not because it's value.
I'm not saying backing at the right price is not important,I'm saying it's not the be all and end all |
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I don't think there are many straight punters who
are paying PC, and I'm not paying it. I may be wrong though. |
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"Buzzer In this day and age on the horses,a horse is generally to big a price for a reason,and that reason is not because it's value."
Firstly, what does it matter what day it is? And secondly if a horse is not value, then by definition the price can't be too big. |
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According to betfairs own stats it still pays to back all the drifters at the off BSP, non triers obviously included here, rather than backing the steamers at BFSP when the money is already down!
Everyone says 'you could tell that wasn't trying' after a big drifter loses but no mention when the big drifter comes in. |
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live If you have a horse as a 6/1 shot and the actual price is 10/1,by definition you have value,chances are you are also about to back a loser
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Here are five golden rules point to follow if you want to be a successful punter:
1. Only bet on what you know 2. Learn how to manage your bankroll and stake accordingly 3. Understand that a good bet does not always win and a bad bet does not always lose 4. Don't chase your losses, just move on to the next opportunity 5. Never place a bet unless you are confident the odds are in your favour |
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"live If you have a horse as a 6/1 shot and the actual price is 10/1,by definition you have value,chances are you are also about to back a loser"
You only have value if your assessment of the horse being a 6-1 shot is correct. |
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Joined:
04 Nov 05 | Topic/replies: 9,615 | Blogger: kenilworth's blog I don't think there are many straight punters who are paying PC, and I'm not paying it. I may be wrong though. You're wrong there ken. Layers can easily fall into the PC trap, having long good runs before variance kicks in and when you're snared it's difficult to get out, paying on the good weeks but having to take the bad weeks with no recompense hence why many left here. The big leagues are fine for liquidity on match odds, over/under 2.5 but even in those leagues side markets have suffered badly. |