Yeah looking into afew tomoz will post my picks in the morning,

I usually do the brazil games make abit of profit

Cheers for your tips today.

Hopefully we can keep this thread going,

yarik 22 Aug 12 19:12 
I was wondering does anyone knows the historical longest string of 0-0 of one team in top leagues? What if lay 0-0 after it occured twice in a raw, what about it?





No idea what the longest ever is but Alemania Aachen in the Bundesliga 2 last season had FOUR 0-0s in a row

dont know if this is any help, 45 games today on the xscores website with the score being 0-0 at half time only 9 of those 45 games finished 0-0,so if every game was average lay odds of 2.6 at half time(which it wont be) laying 25 pounds on every game till its conclusion would lose you 360 pounds on the losers and gain you 855 pounds, a profit of 495 pounds,might try this out with any game that reaches 2.6 ish at half time with 0-0 scoreline

0-0 at half time would never be as low as 2.6

You are better served to back the draw in the 'Lay The Draw' selections that FTS send out. Over the last 82 selections last season, when I first started tracking them, they returned +14.3 points, an ROI of 17.23% and a LLS of 10.

The Lay the Draw has several, well-documented, problems - the 0-0, the two quick goals for 1-1, the 'dog scoring first etc. When people talk about being careful about what games to select, this is already factored in to the price. The strategy will work if you can find games where the 'true' goal expectancy exceeds the market's expectation of goal expectancy, but if you can find those games, it's easier to simply back the Overs pre-game and go out rather than waste 90 minutes of your life waiting to trade out. 

http://green-all-over.blogspot.co.uk/2012/08/friendly-tipster-league-2012-13.html

Come here.  gather round.  Let me tell you a tale.

The scriptures of "lay the draw" have returned to our land since around 2 AB ("after (Andrew) Black).

There was a time it worked even when the factors that the wise man cpfc4me came into play.  It was a time when after the first goal, inexperienced hunters would lay long odds and we of early years need not complain.  Even if the away dog scored, the odds spiked way out, the plebs eager to reach upwards with the assumption that 1-0 meant the team would win.  We who had laid the draw pre-off would gather our nets, fill our baskets with absurd backs and drink well before the final whistle.

It was a joyful time.  Money for nothing and the chicks for free.

Then, like a cloud, a bot arrived from the north.  Innocent as it looked, it did something.  It turned punters into sheep.  Yes, sheep.  It turned to the punters who created the spikes and said, "Lo, do not grabbeth upwards.  There is no need.  WE will tell you what WE think is the 'true' odds."

Then someone pushed the button.  And the sheep lined up and paid their coins to the Bot Gods and suddenly.....overnight.....the odds aligned themselves.  Then the high street hunters got more involved with their make believe in-running and added to "what is considered" true odds. 

The sheep kept paying with coins. And the Bot Gods stood by drinking from golden cups without ever placing a bet themselves.

Then the high street hunters added their stones to create more weight and oppression filled the nation.

Suddenly the wine didn't flow by half time. No matter the team.  No matter the country.  No matter the time of day, the graphs painted with each goal at each point of a match with certain odds looked exactly the same.  From England to Korea.  From California to Moscow, the Bot God dictated the odds.

But when all seemed dark and though you can't fill yer boots with drink and your bag with easy venison, a small band, myself included, decided to leave the road and travel on a different path using our own knowledge as the map..

You don't follow the sheep.  You become a thinking being and rather than bet on a moment, you create your own expectations, your own view on a match and only back or lay when YOU, no other sheep, think it is value. 

This might mean not laying when the joust begins.  It might mean putting up an offer well below the first whistle and gamble that there will be no goal for 25 or 30 minutes.  And if it gets matched, you might now be a wizard and will create your own 'mini spike' when the underdog scores.  Or, it you don't get matched, so be it.  Sharpen your sword and wait patiently for another opportunity to catch tonight's dinner.

Or perhaps you should migrate to other pastures and not follow the sheep.  Perhaps go visit the village of HT/FT and lay X/1, X/2 or X/X with the expectation that a goal in the first 45 minutes was imminent and would be solo.


But it is all about how much value you can get for your chickens.

Remember, children.  There are no 'click and win' formulas in the land of betfair.


Now someone run and fetch an old man a drink.  My throat is dry from telling this story again and again and again.

Shapeshifter just broke a thread full of hearts

The other side to Shapeshifters story is....
a goal was scored and many clamoured to back the draw, at below true odds, in a two minute stampede, at any available odds on offer, just because it would leave them with the comfort of a green screen! When the two minute scramble was over the draw price rose to where it should be but they thought any green is good............for a short time at least.

You risk losing alot more but its your own choice when you want to exit.

If the odds are too big you should be backing the draw not waiting until time has elapsed, less minutes to score, because the odds will still, usually, be true.

im on Trabzonspor v Videoton game aswell now

laying the draw in barca real

aw i see been an ok day nothing great

These are my games for 2day so far

BW Linz V A. Lustenau
Waalwijk V Roda
Hertha Berlin v Regensburg

on monaco game now aswell

Good luck with this Ross90 i will be looking in.

Been away for afew days back today looking for afew games fancy the
Dnipro v Slovan Liberec game so far.

didnt last long?

Mate you wont win money laying the draw,try my system for a month and let me know how you go on. do it on all championship fixtures on any given saturdays , it works on all fixtures but ive found the championship most profitable, you bet the draw in the ht mkt,then you lay the 0.0 in the ht mkt. if the fixture is 0.0 at ht you only lose about 2 fiths of your stake, if its 1.0 either way or 2. 1 , ie any team is leading you are levels . but if its 1.1 ,2.2,3.3 at ht you . get paid out for the draw and also the lay for the 0.0 , you only need 1 . 1.1 ,for every 3 0.0 s to make a profit . do it on every fixture , the more you do the better it works.