well done son of shiner, try it in chamoionship next time and play all saturdays fixtures ignore the doom brigade and just play with your profit.if you like it and you show a profit over a few months or weeks . ive got other systems for you to try .only if your happy and show a profit though.

cracker i did something similar a while back..i might just tinker with staking slightly to tweak it here and there but as a system its not going to do you much damage as you only need one or two winners to clear a profit depending on how many games you play

sometimes you get a saturday when there maybe ten fixtures and 4 scoring draws at ht, and no 0.0 . when this happens you mop up . but dont double up save the winnings for a tme when you may lose then judge the system after ten wks or so

Assuming the HT 0-0 is on average 3.00 and the HT Draw price is 2.30 and £20 stakes on each

0-0 would result in a £15.30 loss (£26 win, minus 5% commission and a £40 loss)
Score Draw results in a £43.70 win (£26 win, minus 5% commission and a £20 win, minus 5% com)
Any Other results in a £1 loss (£20 win, minus 5% commission, and £20 loss)

Over the last 4 seasons in the Championship, 31.93% of games were 0-0 at HT, and 10.87% were Score Draws (Therefore 57.20% 'Any Other')

Given there are 552 games in a season, this would result in an average of £992.63 loss per season.

Even without commission, it shows a £547.50 loss per season.

I realise I am making some assumptions on the prices, but I don't think they are too unreasonable and/or too far out.

OK back 0-0 at HT and lay the HT draw

Im sure there'd be plenty of point'n'click systems which would make a few quid if it wasnt for commission.

Its when you do the numbers (like above) you're reminded how much commission is the killer.

i suppose you could turn an annual projected loss into a profit with filters ie game selection and price sensitive

sarcasm the lowest form of wit

first of all id like to say why are peole knocking my system without even trying it. football is a very unpredictable game , if every game went to form we would all bet man utd at home at 2 to 5 every match and we would all be millionaire and all bookies would be out of bussiness. but it doesnt go to form and people overlook the draw . ived developed this system over time using the non form angle if u like , the ht draw is a big player in any game. all i ask is do this for the rest of september and you WILL show a profit, i dont do percentages . and one clicks and all that other stuff that people are looking into too much i will make profit i hope ssome one tries it. if it doesnt work slag me off on here all you like and il admit im wrong but jus try it for 2 pound a game bet. and 2 lay . its not going to break the bank. remember bet the draw ht mkt, lay the o.o ht mkt in every championship game this saturday snd pick up your profit at 5.pm .

and sorry maas i thought u were having a go before i may hav misunderstood your post

first of all id like to say why are peole knocking my system without even trying it.

Because it can't be a long-term winner, unless the prices are wrong, and you offer no reason why prices in the Championship on a Saturday in the HT0-0 and HTX markets are wrong.

As you said yourself, "you only need one 1-1 for every three 0-0s to make a profit" - but last season in the Championship, there were only 47 score-draws to 193 0-0s. Take away the commission on the other outcomes and you can see how the numbers don't add up. Yes, on any given set of 12 fixtures, you may well win, but long-term, no. And backing the draw and then laying off one of the selections you have just backed is nonsense. Just back the 1-1, 2-2, but that won't be a long-term winner either.

There is no simple one-size-fits-all winning system. Ted's numbers are a good guide to how this would play out in practice.

Good post by cpfc.

OK, here are 'results' for some other leagues: average win/loss per season over the last 4 seasons

Again, this is assuming 0-0 price is 3.00, HTX price is 2.30 and commission is 5%...I am also making the assumption that both markets are available for all league (not too sure if they are for eg lower league Scots stuff)

Eng Prem: +£272.03 (29.14% 0-0, 11.84% SD)
League 1: +£565.65 (29.39% 0-0, 12.64% SD)
League 2: -£59.28 (29.94% 0-0, 10.24% SD)
Conference: -£58.65 (30.85% 0-0, 10.56% SD)

Scot Prem: +£34.60 (31.58% 0-0, 11.40% SD)
Scot Div1: -£120.48 (33.33% 0-0, 10.14% SD)
Scot Div2: +£295.83 (26.94% 0-0, 13.19% SD)
Scot Div3: +376.15 (24.03% 0-0, 13.19% SD)

La Liga: +£188.97 (30.20% 0-0, 11.71% SD)
Segunda: -£42.68 (33.12% 0-0, 11.42% SD)

so overall ted youve proved this works then

no in understand as with systems there are flaws and big doubts, its just the poster that brought it up doesnt deserve the flak hes been getting..cheers for your efforts ted

the reason it works in september is this the best 3 form team from last yr got promoted . the three that came down no one knows if they are better or worse than those that went uo also the three what came up from league one are replacing the three in the league that lost nearly every week.what im getting at is loads of different fixtures and no form to go on . so the draw is an obviuos senario

Mmm did that just roll of your tongue or do you any facts to back this claim up?

dsmith judge me after saturday

crackerpants
06 Sep 12 20:09
Joined:
26 Oct 10
| Topic/replies: 27 | Blogger: crackerpants's blog
also in reply to ted brogan some ht draw prices are considarabley bigger when say the top of the league plays the bottom.on average your not too far away though mate wd ted . now lets get some cash in on saturday


This would make no difference because the ht 0-0 price would be considerably bigger too!

yeah today doesnt look good