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Laying The Draw (LTD)
Laying The Draw (LTD)
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Replies: 211
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Crackerpants: Your logic and numbers are a little flawed. If the score is 0-0 at HT - which happens about 35% of the time in the Championship - you lose about 20% of your total stake. You are relying on the HT score draw which wins about 8.5% of the time, with the other 56.5% of bets breaking even, less commission which adds up quickly. To be profitable, you would need to lay the HT0-0 at 2.84 or less, and back the HTX at 2.34 or more, and that won't be easy.
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No mention of prices, also commission to be paid on two
markets, ensures no long term profits. Better off playing roulette. |
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forget percents and commision ive played it for 4 seasons now and made a nice profit every season . start of for very small stakes and see how you go , or trial it for free . simply get the results from the weekend games.
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Rosso. First of all great thread. I have started this over the summer to practice and am now 134 games in. I keep everyone on a spreadsheet. A record of liability. Potential profit. Trade out time. Score at trade out. Actual profit / loss. Score at ft. Id be willing to share this with u if u wanted it. The 1st post on here helped me. The trade out if the dog scores early. I will play that. Thanks. I have a further rules. I will ltd in any game lay price < 5 Only if the 0-0 price is > 10. Lets face it we need goals. I am showing a 3% profit after 134 games. Which is less than i want. But i still learning and i hav made some bad decisions throughout. The red out if dog scores will help imo.
I not been on the forum much but will watch this thread with interest |
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Betting with no reference to prices, paying double commission,
cannot win the long term. To win doing what you suggest, the betting would need some logic and/or the prices would have to be flawed, and there is no evidence of either from what I can see. There are no 'point and click' systems that win in my knowledge, but if you think this works for you, good luck. |
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I am ltd now in the womens WC U20s usa lead at ht. also a game at 11.30 i am playing japan v germans. Ltd 4.1
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Ken. Would 3% profit in 134 games not b a sufficient sample size to say there is some edge in this system? Its nit quite point and click. Some rules are applied
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hi crackerpants ime new to this betfair lark but find this forum very helpfull indeed,just looked at last saturdays championship results at h.t 8 teams were leading 2 were 0-0 and one was 1-1 would your system have showed a profit,cheers
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0-2 win for USA.
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YES mate that would have made a nice little profit for get all the genius,s quoting why it wont work and trial it for very small stakes.WHEN .YOU FIND THAT IT WORKS .then increase . i dont wont to argue with anyone about commision . percentages etc. ive just got a system that mkes me a few quid and just like to share it .
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hi liverpoolunited.i only play it in the ht mkts never on full 90 mins . and i never trade out . because any goal before ht is my trade out in its self .
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ive giv it go crackerpants on 8 games in johnsons paints,let you know what happens.
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Se Germans lead 3-0 st ht #LTD
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OK dude good look try and pick the fixtures with free scoring team playing against each other . dont put defensive teams in. if tow are playing each other . il be interested to know how you do . as ive never played in that league before.
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LiverpoolUnited Joined: 28 Jan 12
Replies: 741 04 Sep 12 09:22 Ken. Would 3% profit in 134 games not b a sufficient sample size to say there is some edge in this system? Its nit quite point and click. Some rules are applied No, 3% over 134 matches is NOT a big enough sample. Which rules are applied and for what reason(s)? What about commission ? What about prices ? |
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Ken. Ill try to abswer even tho i cant really b bothered. I lay the draw between odds of 3 and 5. Reason is nothing more than amount of return i want from the bet. All my bets have a luability of around 50 quid. Of which i am willing to lose half. This means if the bet goes bad and they are drawing. I trade out to lise 25 quid at on average 76th min. Normally if a team goe 2 goals up i will trade out. Although sometimes i have missed this window and the bet runs its duration. But my intention is to trade out with 2 goal lead. The 3% return is minus all commish
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Ken. What sample size would u say is enough to reject the nul hypothesis here. Id say 134 is plenty. Whats ur reason for saying its not?
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LiverpoolUnited, I haven't read past the first line of your reply,
and really I don't mind if you can't be bothered so long as any trusting soul CAN be bothered enough to be careful following you in. GL. |
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Ken. Are yew some kind of mug? Im not trying to justify it to you or any other. I am trying to share my experience with the OP.
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Calmoan owned by Ken
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tried crackerpants system on 8 of tonights johnsons paint 7.45 k.o.caught 3 score draws,1 0-0,and 4 were winning for a decent profit.cheers
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Whats the stake you use per bet. ie what is your liability on the lay 0-0 and how much stake on back the draw. An example would be great. Many thanks
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If,if and more if....crap mate.....use your balls guys and bet on what YOU THINK WILL WIN
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epic stuff from Calmug here
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just triied crackers system on all tonites games ..johnstones paint and conference and approx £20 stakes to an average odds sample ..so a total loss including commissions of -£105, but a profit of £252, leaving a net profit of approx £147
so its got flaws, which system hasnt but its definitely worth at least monitoring over a decent sized sample thoughts?? |
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Sorry its a busy week for me this week.
Nice to see people here interested, I will try post my games here over the next few days, But will be back in full on Saturday. |
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and yes his system isnt click and win but he never claimed it was...the name of the game is for your profits to outweigh your losses
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Sweetchildofmine
Can you give me an example of one of the mes bets you placed Cheers |
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sweetchild, can you explain how you were staking? from those matches, i believe 8 were 0-0 half time, and 4 were scoring draws.
to break even if one teams leading, i would suggest this would actually lead to a loss, not before factoring in commision. |
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i took the 8 johnson paints 7.45 k.o. minus southend and coventry games and came out a decent profit to minimum stakes.
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bacon the four score draws at half time yields approx 45 pounds if youre using twenty pound units so four of them wipes out the other losses and gives a profit...not saying this works yet, its not my system, just that it worked last night..it could bomb next time
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bacon i meant the four score draws yielded 45 pounds per trade
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Interesting thread, I have always ignored the LTD strategy but am going to read through this. Nice work guys
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as with all systems 99.9% are probably flawed but if you can cherry pick little bits and pieces from various ones and refine and tinker with them, tyhen theres always ways to make money
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sorry to keep asking, but im genuinely interested. how does that figure with your 1st post? 45x4 is 180, and as i make it, each 0 0 costs you about 30 quid at those stakes?
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no a 0-0 cost me approx £13 per game as the 20 pounds on the half time draw, partly offsets the loss
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oi vay, my shocking maths. cheers for explaining.
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oi vay, my shocking maths. cheers for explaining.
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Sorry stepchild - I'm sounding like a stalker now
Could you just tell me in one of the matches last night what actual bets you placed as I'm struggling with my maths here TTh |
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hammer im having trouble bringing up my details but... one of the games for example
£20 on half time draw @ 2.26 lay 0-0 at half time @ 2.86 £20 so in this game a score draw at half time means approx £23 profit on draw back plus the winning £20 lay on 0-0..giving approx £43 profit after commission in this case a 0-0 at half time would have meant approx £13 loss, and a positive score at half time ie 1-0, a slight loss of around £1 hope its a bit clearer..as i say these are only approximates |