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green army
06 May 12 20:26
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Date Joined: 15 Oct 05
| Topic/replies: 2,610 | Blogger: green army's blog
now I know I mentioned this earlier, but after todays results just think of it like this

a mid table prem team has finished its season v disappointingly, its last 3 home games lost all 3 v wigan, fulham & wba

last game with nothing to play for they meet chelsea who have just beaten them in the cup final, they are on fire having recently disposed of Barca in the CL

chelsea are not yet guaranteed a CL spot next year but may do this if they win this game + blackburn at home

so who are the faves ? Im a trader & I have been wrong about liverpool a few times but if they start faves for this game on tuesday I will question the sanity of the human race - if I was a punter with £1k to spare Id see this as one of the best value bets of my life

btw I have already had me £2k on chelsea

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Replies: 549
By:
Mr Eboue
When: 06 May 12 20:28
It would be just like Liverpool to win this game 3-0.
By:
tobermory
When: 06 May 12 20:38
Last Home Game of the season, all the banners on The Kop  etc, the stick they have gotten for their league position, the fact Dalglish knows he could still be sacked in the summer....

And you think Liverpool have 'nothing to play for' and are not bothered about this game  Crazy
By:
sofaking
When: 06 May 12 20:57
Poll will get at leat a point I reckon.
By:
sofaking
When: 06 May 12 20:57
Pool.*
By:
green army
When: 06 May 12 21:11
ok, mr eboue, lets stick to facts and statistics not "Ive seen it in the tealeaves" theories

tobes you little stirrer, there is something in what you are saying in terms of the players' psyches but

1) this can work either way, the pressure may make them play better or worse

2) we have empirical evidence as to how the players react to the building pressure in the last 3 home games - the fans have been more and more vitriolic on each occasion - the results, lost to wigan, lost to villa, lost to fulham - there are no logical or statistical reasons to believe this pattern will change
By:
tobermory
When: 06 May 12 21:14
1) this can work either way, the pressure may make them play better or worse

True, but your opening post implied they would lack motivation, which they won't.
By:
Mike-lfc
When: 06 May 12 21:20
We won't lose. Will play a proper side. Sterling, Aurelio and hopefully Doni. Proper players.
By:
Mike-lfc
When: 06 May 12 21:20

May 6, 2012 -- 9:20PM, Mike-lfc wrote:


We won't lose. Will play a proper side. Sterling, Aurelio and hopefully Doni. Proper players.


O and don't forgot our record signing will actually start in a nothing game.

By:
green army
When: 06 May 12 21:27
no I pointed out that they have no motivation based on a tangible footballing goals eg CL qualification

you feel that they are under pressure because they are getting stick from their own fans for being so abysmally poor and this will therefore motivate them

well maybe it will, maybe it wont, Ive read (in the guardian) that many of the senior players whilst liking kenny think hes not a good motivator or manager - they wont be motivated to bust a gut on tuesday - in fact (one more) poor performance may be a good way to ensure a fresh face in next year

and even if finishing well for kenny does motivate some of them, it can in no way be as strong a motivation as being in the number 1 footballing competion on the planet next season - Im sure mr abramovitcch will remind the chelsea players of this in no uncertain terms
By:
mafeking
When: 07 May 12 00:09
i'd always be wary of taking on liverpool for a trade. they're nearly always backed in like defeat's out of the question.

just look at saturday they almost started the cup final as favourites when anyone could there's an absolute chasm in class between the 2 sides.
By:
songsforthedeaf
When: 07 May 12 01:09
ga you forget that Liverpool havent been consistently underpriced by some obviously heavy backers all season, they always start a home game favourite...
By:
songsforthedeaf
When: 07 May 12 01:10
I dont think the Macau businessmen have got involved yet, and we could see Liverpool hit 2.4.
By:
Knight Rider
When: 07 May 12 02:17
My ratings have Liverpool at 2.27, even if they both play full-strength teams.

*dons crash helmet*
By:
THE LEGEND
When: 07 May 12 05:17
999/1 Chelsea parade the FA Cup in front of the kop....lol
By:
Redrebel5
When: 07 May 12 07:38
Best to put your bet on in-play for this one. It's all about how Liverpool approach the game. The first 10 - 15 minutes will be a good indicator. If we start like we did on Saturday then I can't see us winning. But if we kick off playing a very high tempo & getting stuck into Chelsea (like we should have done on Saturday) then we could possibly tear them a new one.

With the CL final less than 2 weeks away, I doubt many Chelsea players will fancy going into too many 50-50's.

Difficult one to call this. Pre-match bets are going to be a massive gamble.
By:
pushkin99
When: 07 May 12 08:27
Looks like you timed your 2k trade badly geenarmy - 3.1 for Chelsea is available now. Are you still intending to trade and redout before kick off?
By:
clarkey
When: 07 May 12 09:56
I must be watching a different game to others because whilst Liverpool have been dreadful most of the season,i genuinely dont think Chelsea have been much better this term.Sure,they got a "league 3 beat a Prem team team" type of back to the walls result against Barca but that could have easily been hammered in both the home and away tie and that game still goes down as a freak result,imo.They just about shaded the first 50mins on saturday but were out on their feet after that and Liverpool had wave after wave of attack,as they do in most games.Dominated possesion and shots on target,like they do in most games.Were the better team but lost,as they do in most games.To say there's "an absolute chasm in class between the the two teams" is borderline lunacy given the fact Liverpool have already beaten them twice this season

Liverpool will always be favourites at home in the Prem with the possible exception of the Manchester clubs and given how Chelsea finished the game on Saturday,i cant see nothing but a lay of Chelsea as the way forward.My prediction?.....Liverpool 70% possesion,25 shots on target compared to Chelsea's 2.The Chelsea keeper having the game of his life and Liverpool hitting the post/bar for the 500th time this season...........1-1Laugh
By:
G1_Jockey_4
When: 07 May 12 10:00
trade out
Liverpool will be shorter still come kick off
By:
rommel
When: 07 May 12 10:04
chels a good price sure
By:
rommel
When: 07 May 12 10:04
1903
If Liverpool do not score five against Chelsea tomorrow, they will have scored fewer at home than in any season since 1903.
By:
green army
When: 07 May 12 10:09
your right pushkin -if chelsea start at 3.1 I trade out for a £300 loss but (and I know Ive said this about liverpool before) I do not believe the market will sustain this position - I agree its a result of overnite eastern madness - those guys back liverpool at 2.8, 2.6 or 2.4, makes no difference to them 

I still think chelsea will start around 2.6 and will stand by that, why ? because it is the only game tomorrow and people who really understand football will home in on this and I believe (and hope) will outweigh the delusional scouse cash

plus you only have to look at the beeb site / messageboards to see kenny will "experiment" whilst chelsea are desperate to win this game

we shall see

smithy - take the 3.15 as much as you can - I cant, I have £2k tied up & its over my stop loss
By:
pushkin99
When: 07 May 12 10:41
Chelsea may win - that's for sure - but after the lord mayor's show they are quite likely to have an anti climax before trying to build up for Munich. To my mind Liverpool have been badly stung and will be desperate to put on a good show - as others have pointed out the price on Liverpool is likley to contract still further. If the price stays where it is at the moment a trade of 2k at 2.84 to close at 3.15 looks like a trading loss of £620 to me so for your sake I hope I am wrong.
By:
green army
When: 07 May 12 10:48
you are wrong, £2k @ 3.15 less 2.84 = £620 which traded between the 3 eventualities is around £225 loss (not as painful as I thought)

get a calculator, try a dummy run on screen
By:
pushkin99
When: 07 May 12 10:51
getting ever more painfull..........3.2 now
By:
green army
When: 07 May 12 10:52
and btw, liverpool may be desperate to put on a good show (tho see above, some of the better players may quite like to lose the game), but my daughter is desperate to be the next rihana, she wont cos like all but 3 of the liverpool players, she is err, limited in her ability
By:
green army
When: 07 May 12 10:53
well 3.15, tbh Im not sure why chelsea even bother travelling
By:
pushkin99
When: 07 May 12 11:20
greenarmy - if you want to show what amazing skills you have as a trader - and by your own admission you trade out red or green before kick off - I would humbly suggest you pick a team other than Liverpool. As others have tried patiently to point out to you, there are many who just can't see past a Liverpool win however average their team has become - the Liverpool price always comes in before kick off.
By:
Rob_The_Bantam
When: 07 May 12 11:24
the Liverpool price always comes in before kick off.

Apart from in their last home game vs Fulham of course...
By:
Zigzager
When: 07 May 12 11:31
Reckon the Liverpool price will shorten for sure. Last home game of the season and chance to get revenge for cup final defeat, where they were all over a tired looking Chelsea for the final 30 mins and pretty unlucky not to get an equaliser. Plenty of motivation as still could finish above Everton and Fulham if they win their last 2 matches.
The chance of Chelsea to secure Champions league football by their league position is now very slim, their destiny is out of their hands even if they win their last 2 matches they have to hope for Arsenal, Spurs and Newcastle final match results to be favourable. Think they will obviously see the mammouth task of winning the final against Bayern as their best chance of qualifying for next season and concentrate on this.
By:
pushkin99
When: 07 May 12 11:37
There's always the exception that breaks the rule Rob - I could not believe how bereft of ability Kenny's team was that night and put a good few quid on Fulham just before the start. So that is my plan, wait for team news tommorow night and then decide what view to take then, if any, rather than risk a gamble now with insufficient information. God I must be bored............roll on work tomorrowCrazyCrazyCrazyCrazy
By:
green army
When: 07 May 12 11:51
no you are absolutely right pushkin, the real thorn in my side since xmas, a salutory lesson for every trader, ie never underestimate peoples' stupidity

I still think because there's only 1 game tomorrow and that for a game that only 1 side can obtain a tangible footballing reward - a possible place in the cl - that chelsea will start fave tomorrow - and if they dont I will be back on here tomorrow eating a large slice of humble pie - with ketchup

for yourself I would advise that you dont touch trading with a bargepole until you learn to apply a bit of gcse maths to your trades !
By:
pushkin99
When: 07 May 12 12:28
O level (and A level) rather than gcse maths for me - though in this instance it was a blind spot rather than lacking ability. In my minds eye, my incorrect calculation of 'redding out' at 3.15 was: (a) to break even for a Chelsea win but minus £620 if they lose or draw, rather than (b) a guaranteed loss of a couple of hundered quid whether Chelsea win, draw or lose.
By:
toffee87
When: 07 May 12 12:37
i'm with you pushkin - i thought he would go for option (a) seeing as his whole argument is built on a chelsea victory
By:
smithy91
When: 07 May 12 12:42
hi guys just seen the thread was not around yesterday.

i have got 2k on chelsea at 3.15 like you said green army. i don't like taking liverpool on but this looks a good shout i must admit can't see them drifting out more. if they do i will also eat humble pie. cheers for tipGrin
By:
ours4keeps
When: 07 May 12 12:50
Disagree with green army here. Can only see the betting going one way and I expect Liverpool to field a team far closer to 1st choice than Chelsea will.

Liverpool's league form has been terrible but in recent weeks the looming FA Cup final has been a distraction. That's out of the way now, it's the final home game and a chance to gain some sort of revenge.

In front of this is a team that has to make up 5 points in 2 games and then hope neither Tottenham or Newcastle win their final game. For them, all eyes will now be on Munich and I'm certain Drogba, Lampard and Cole will all miss tomorrow's game. Di Matteo knows his position doesn't depend on it: he's either been told no or it will rest on the result in the final. There's little motivation for Chelsea here.

That's not to say they won't win as they're clearly the better team at present but I think the theories on motivation are incorrect.
By:
smithy91
When: 07 May 12 13:12
one of the reasons i started pre off trading is because when liverpool played man utd in the prem fixture earlier in season i layed man utd on a wednesday at 2.4 by 12:45 on saturday lunchtime they were 3.2.incredible.

rooney had been ruled out on thursday and price headed for 2.8. then team news came out utd went 4-5-1 with phil jones and park in centre mid and welbeck as lone striker price crashed to 3.2 and i was left with goldmine.

then when they played city at anfield. city were 2.52 to start then by kickoff they were 2.88 and liverpool 2.74 favesGrin.

i don't like opposing liverpool but in this situation how much further can liverpool come in?Confused
By:
songsforthedeaf
When: 07 May 12 13:14
I'm doing a trade, I'm only small stakes so I have 300 exposure on Chelsea and can now trade out for a small profit...whatever you think of Liverpool, and they are the kind of team which you could debate their price all day, it's pretty obvious that the market will make pool favourites come kick off.

2.4 I think is a reasonable price, I don't See why they wouldn't play a full strength team.
By:
chandla1980.
When: 07 May 12 13:19
Expected Chelsea team Turnbull, Ferriera, Ivanovic, Terry, Bertrand, Romeu, Meireles, Ramires, Malouda, Lukaku, Sturridge. It's likely most the big guns (Torres/Mata/Lampard/Drogba/Cole) won't even travel and the bench will have a few youth team players to make up the numbers.
By:
modk
When: 07 May 12 13:20
liverpool be 1.95 if that lot turn up
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