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A new value betting system is under construction and will try dayly pick generated from it. More info will follow soon 
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First pick for today
1. CESENA JUVENTUS under 2.5 goals @ 2.5 |
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The system is simple, we select matches which over/under goals market is with high
arbitrage quotes or even sure bet and play the highest from both. For example today match: Palermo - Parma Over2.5@1.89 Under2.5@2.10 Arbitrage between both markets gives value of 0.995. It's not sure bet (sure bet must be with value > 1.000), but value is good. So , we play the highest: Under2.5@2.10 I thing the value in such markets lies in the highest odds and in the long run, the value should give its profit. I'm testing this system for some time and it gives quite positive results. Soon i'll publish a web site with history for the last weeks. Picks for today: Palermo - Parma Under2.5 @2.10 Milan - Genoa Over3.5 @2.40 |
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Updated picks:
Palermo - Parma Under2.5 @2.10 Milan - Genoa Over3.5 @2.40 Real - Bayern Over3.5 @2.40 |
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Care to "open source" the selection system? It's one thing for us to follow your picks, but if you open the system and let us see what it's throwing up we could advise you on improvement further.
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The system reads quotes from 20+ bookmakers including (Betfair, Pinnacle, Expekt, ...)
and compares every Under/Over 1.5, 2.5, 3.5 market, each markets has its payout. fair odds like 2.00 /2.00 has payout = 1.0000 if payout is >1.000 it is sure bet. I find the matches with highest payout and bet on them Match: Cesena - Juventus Over2.5 @1.66 (****) Under2.5 @2.50 (BlueSq) payout = 0.998 Pick: Under2.5 @2.50 (BlueSq) |
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Some nice ideas but I see two problems Gavrail:
1. Why should the value be in the higher odds? That's an entirely arbitrary distinction- you're much better off looking at deviations from the average and/or from bookmakers you 'trust' 2. It's a dangerous game simply betting on the 'best' options available on any given day. By that I mean you really should set some payout value above which you bet ( I would advise >1 !), otherwise on dry days you may find yourself betting on rather low payouts where the likelihood of value is very small... |
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Palermo - Parma Under2.5 @2.10 FT 1:2
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Milan - Genoa Over3.5 @2.40 FT 1:0
Real - Bayern Over3.5 @2.40 FT 2:1 Cesena - Juventus Under2.5 @2.50 FT 0:1 |
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1.Valencia - Atletico Madrid Under2.5 @2.50
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2. ATH BILBAO - SP LISBON Under2.5 @2.25
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Gavrail are you Romanian?
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Valencia - Atletico Madrid Under2.5 @2.50 FT 0:1
ATH BILBAO - SP LISBON Under2.5 @2.25 FT 3:1 |
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im curious
atl. bilbao in the knockout stages had i believe before last night's game produced 7 games over 2.5 and 1 game under 2.5, or something similar. what kind of system are you operating that ignores these? because betting on football and ignoring the actual teams playing is an "interesting" approach that im struggling with a bit  |
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1. Southampton - Coventry UNDER 2.5@2.5
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defo overs southampton
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they only need 1 point though
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Southampton - Coventry UNDER 2.5@2.5 FT4:0
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Today:
Sevilla - Real Betis Under2.50 @2.30(BetUS) Mallorca - Rayo Vallecano Under2.50 @2.30(BetUS) Juventus - Lecce Over3.50 @2.30(Expekt) Barcelona - Malaga Under3.50 @2.34(Betfair) |
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Sevilla - Real Betis Under2.50 @2.30(BetUS) FT 1:2
Mallorca - Rayo Vallecano Under2.50 @2.30(BetUS)FT 1:0 Juventus - Lecce Over3.50 @2.30(Expekt)FT 1:1 Barcelona - Malaga Under3.50 @2.34(Betfair)FT 4:1 |
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For Gavrail1 read Gethin and Dragqueen. Hth any mugs who is thinking about following here then oaying for complete mug tips
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Celtic - Saint Johnstone Under2.50 @2.18
Mjallby - Malmo FF Over2.50 @2.10 Gefle - Norrkoping Over2.50 @2.25 |
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Celtic - Saint Johnstone Under2.50 @2.18 FT 1:0
 Mjallby - Malmo FF Over2.50 @2.10 FT 2:2  Gefle - Norrkoping Over2.50 @2.25 FT 0:2 |
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Mjallby - Malmo FF Over2.50 @2.10 FT 2:2
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completely lost?? no idea what the logic or system is that you are using, all looks a bit hairy to me...
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Looking at the results of this so far, I would stick my neck out and say its not really working. But keep it up and I will go the total opposite from what you post ... Cha Ching !
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Metz - Guingamp Under 1.50 @3.10 (Betfair)
Last 10 matches: Metz scores 0.8 goal/match, Guingamp 0.9 goal/match Le Havre - Amiens Under 1.50 @3.75 (Betfair) Last 10 matches: Le Havre scores 0.3 goal/match, Amiens 0.9 goal/match |
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1.CESENA JUVENTUS under 2.5 goals @ 2.5 FT 0:1 WIN
2.Palermo - Parma Under2.5 @2.10 FT 1:2 LOSE 3.Milan - Genoa Over3.5 @2.40 FT 1:0 LOSE 4.Real - Bayern Over3.5 @2.40 FT 2:1 LOSE 5.Valencia - Atletico Madrid Under2.5 @2.50 FT 0:1 WIN 6.ATH BILBAO - SP LISBON Under2.5 @2.25 FT 3:1 LOSE 7.Southampton - Coventry UNDER 2.5@2.5 FT4:0 LOSE 8.Sevilla - Real Betis Under2.50 @2.30(BetUS) FT 1:2 LOSE 9.Mallorca - Rayo Vallecano Under2.50 @2.30(BetUS)FT 1:0 WIN 10.Juventus - Lecce Over3.50 @2.30(Expekt)FT 1:1 LOSE 11.Barcelona - Malaga Under3.50 @2.34(Betfair)FT 4:1 LOSE 12.Celtic - Saint Johnstone Under2.50 @2.18 FT 1:0 WIN 13.Mjallby - Malmo FF Over2.50 @2.10 FT 2:2 WIN 14.Gefle - Norrkoping Over2.50 @2.25 FT 0:2 LOSE 5 Picks WON 9 Pics Lost It's completely losing till now but its OK. I continue publish the picks STRICTLY as the system choose them. For your safety, its good to know that the system disregards any statistic, any history, any missing players, any team news. consider only odds and payout. If it turns out to be a STABLE loosing system (but I doubt), i'll also play the opposite:) the point is: Is it loosing or winning |
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lol great get out if it loses ill start laying laying it.
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Adelaide City - Enfield City Over3.50 @2.16 (BetSafe)
Last 5 matches: Adelaide 2.0 goal/match, Enfield 1.4 goal.match Vaslui - Gaz Metan Over3.5 @4.10 (Unibet) Vaslui - Gaz Metan Over2.5 @2.10 (Unibet) Last 10 matches: Vaslui 1.8 goal/match, GazMetan 1.0 goal/match |
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Adelaide City - Enfield City Over3.50 @2.16 (BetSafe) FT 3:0
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Vaslui - Gaz Metan Over3.5 @4.10 (Unibet) FT 4:0
Vaslui - Gaz Metan Over2.5 @2.10 (Unibet) FT 4:0 |
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Liverpool - Chelsea Under2.5 @2.10
Last 10 matches: Liverpool 1.3 goal/match, Chelsea 1.5 goal/match |
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Polten - First Vienna Under2.5 @2.16
Last 10 matches: Polten 1.0 goal/match, Vienna 1.1 goal/match |
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Liverpool - Chelsea Under2.5 @2.10 FT 4:1
Polten - First Vienna Under2.5 @2.16 FT 0:2 |
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Where is the system in that?
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Could you maybe explain your system? Because to me it looks like random picks.
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