VALUE BETTING OVER/UNDER SYSTEM

Care to "open source" the selection system? It's one thing for us to follow your picks, but if you open the system and let us see what it's throwing up we could advise you on improvement further.

The system reads quotes from 20+ bookmakers including (Betfair, Pinnacle, Expekt, ...)
and compares every Under/Over 1.5, 2.5, 3.5 market,  each markets has its payout.

fair odds like   2.00 /2.00 has payout = 1.0000
if payout is >1.000 it is sure bet.

I find the matches with highest payout and bet on them

Match: Cesena - Juventus
Over2.5     @1.66 (****)
Under2.5 @2.50 (BlueSq)
payout = 0.998

Pick: Under2.5 @2.50 (BlueSq)

Some nice ideas but I see two problems Gavrail:

1. Why should the value be in the higher odds? That's an entirely arbitrary distinction- you're much better off looking at deviations from the average and/or from bookmakers you 'trust'

2. It's a dangerous game simply betting on the 'best' options available on any given day. By that I mean you really should set some payout value above which you bet ( I would advise >1 !), otherwise on dry days you may find yourself betting on rather low payouts where the likelihood of value is very small...

Palermo - Parma Under2.5    @2.10 FT 1:2

Milan - Genoa     Over3.5    @2.40  FT 1:0
Real - Bayern     Over3.5    @2.40  FT 2:1

Cesena - Juventus Under2.5 @2.50  FT 0:1

1.Valencia - Atletico Madrid    Under2.5 @2.50

2. ATH BILBAO - SP LISBON   Under2.5 @2.25

Gavrail are you Romanian?

Apr 26, 2012 -- 4:50PM, greenviking wrote:

Gavrail are you Romanian?

No

Valencia - Atletico Madrid    Under2.5 @2.50 FT 0:1
ATH BILBAO - SP LISBON   Under2.5 @2.25 FT 3:1

im curious

atl. bilbao in the knockout stages had i believe before last night's game produced 7 games over 2.5 and 1 game under 2.5, or something similar.

what kind of system are you operating that ignores these? because betting on football and ignoring the actual teams playing is an "interesting" approach that im struggling with a bit

1. Southampton - Coventry UNDER 2.5@2.5

defo overs  southampton

Apr 28, 2012 -- 10:24AM, SharpyBlue wrote:

defo overs

they only need 1 point though

Southampton - Coventry UNDER 2.5@2.5 FT4:0

Apr 27, 2012 -- 10:37AM, dave_the_poor wrote:

im curiousatl. bilbao in the knockout stages had i believe before last night's game produced 7 games over 2.5 and 1 game under 2.5, or something similar.what kind of system are you operating that ignores these? because betting on football and ignoring the actual teams playing is an "interesting" approach that im struggling with a bit

I'm not looking the history, no statistic, just the odds for current match

Today:

Sevilla - Real Betis        Under2.50    @2.30(BetUS)
Mallorca - Rayo Vallecano    Under2.50    @2.30(BetUS)
Juventus - Lecce        Over3.50    @2.30(Expekt)
Barcelona - Malaga        Under3.50    @2.34(Betfair)

Sevilla - Real Betis        Under2.50    @2.30(BetUS) FT 1:2
Mallorca - Rayo Vallecano    Under2.50    @2.30(BetUS)FT 1:0
Juventus - Lecce        Over3.50    @2.30(Expekt)FT 1:1
Barcelona - Malaga        Under3.50    @2.34(Betfair)FT 4:1

For Gavrail1 read Gethin and Dragqueen. Hth any mugs who is thinking about following here then oaying for complete mug tips

Celtic - Saint Johnstone    Under2.50 @2.18
Mjallby - Malmo FF        Over2.50 @2.10
Gefle - Norrkoping        Over2.50 @2.25

Celtic - Saint Johnstone    Under2.50 @2.18 FT 1:0
Mjallby - Malmo FF        Over2.50 @2.10 FT 2:2
Gefle - Norrkoping        Over2.50 @2.25 FT 0:2

Mjallby - Malmo FF        Over2.50 @2.10 FT 2:2 

completely lost?? no idea what the logic or system is that you are using, all looks a bit hairy to me...

Looking at the results of this so far, I would stick my neck out and say its not really working. But keep it up and I will go the total opposite from what you post ... Cha Ching !

Metz - Guingamp    Under 1.50 @3.10 (Betfair)
Last 10 matches: Metz scores 0.8 goal/match, Guingamp 0.9 goal/match


Le Havre - Amiens   Under 1.50 @3.75 (Betfair)
Last 10 matches: Le Havre scores 0.3 goal/match, Amiens 0.9 goal/match

1.CESENA JUVENTUS under 2.5 goals @ 2.5  FT 0:1 WIN
2.Palermo - Parma Under2.5 @2.10 FT 1:2 LOSE
3.Milan - Genoa Over3.5 @2.40 FT 1:0 LOSE
4.Real - Bayern Over3.5 @2.40 FT 2:1 LOSE
5.Valencia - Atletico Madrid Under2.5 @2.50 FT 0:1 WIN
6.ATH BILBAO - SP LISBON Under2.5 @2.25 FT 3:1 LOSE
7.Southampton - Coventry UNDER 2.5@2.5 FT4:0 LOSE
8.Sevilla - Real Betis Under2.50  @2.30(BetUS) FT 1:2 LOSE
9.Mallorca - Rayo Vallecano Under2.50    @2.30(BetUS)FT 1:0 WIN
10.Juventus - Lecce Over3.50    @2.30(Expekt)FT 1:1 LOSE
11.Barcelona - Malaga Under3.50    @2.34(Betfair)FT 4:1 LOSE
12.Celtic - Saint Johnstone Under2.50 @2.18 FT 1:0 WIN
13.Mjallby - Malmo FF Over2.50 @2.10 FT 2:2 WIN
14.Gefle - Norrkoping Over2.50 @2.25 FT 0:2 LOSE

5 Picks WON
9 Pics Lost

It's completely losing till now but its OK. I continue publish the picks STRICTLY as the system choose them. For your safety, its good to know that the system disregards any statistic, any history, any missing players, any team news. consider only odds and payout.
If it turns out to be a STABLE loosing system (but I doubt), i'll also play the opposite:)

the point is: Is it loosing or winning

lol great get out if it loses ill start laying laying it.

Adelaide City - Enfield City    Over3.50 @2.16 (BetSafe)
Last 5 matches:  Adelaide 2.0 goal/match, Enfield 1.4 goal.match

Vaslui - Gaz Metan Over3.5 @4.10 (Unibet)
Vaslui - Gaz Metan Over2.5 @2.10 (Unibet)

Last 10 matches: Vaslui 1.8 goal/match, GazMetan 1.0 goal/match

Adelaide City - Enfield City    Over3.50 @2.16 (BetSafe)  FT 3:0

Vaslui - Gaz Metan Over3.5 @4.10 (Unibet) FT 4:0
Vaslui - Gaz Metan Over2.5 @2.10 (Unibet) FT 4:0

Liverpool - Chelsea    Under2.5 @2.10
Last 10 matches: Liverpool 1.3 goal/match, Chelsea 1.5 goal/match

Polten - First Vienna    Under2.5 @2.16
Last 10 matches: Polten 1.0 goal/match, Vienna 1.1 goal/match

Liverpool - Chelsea    Under2.5 @2.10 FT 4:1
Polten - First Vienna    Under2.5 @2.16 FT 0:2

Where is the system in that?

Could you maybe explain your system? Because to me it looks like random picks.

May 9, 2012 -- 9:43AM, sheihadul wrote:

Could you maybe explain your system? Because to me it looks like random picks.

find under/over markets where payout > 1.000 (sure bet) and bet on higher one.

Example:
Banik Ostrava - Slavia Prague
Over2.5  @2.10 (Expekt)
Under2.5 @1.93 (Betfair)
payout = 1.006

bet: Over2.5  @2.10 (Expekt)

he is making a sure bet with another bookie :)

gavrail it will be very useful if you would put the bookies where the odds allow us to make that bet

Banik Ostrava - Slavia Prague FT 3:0

Anzhi - Zenit    Under2.50 @2.16 (Betfair)

Anzhi - Zenit FT 1:2

Lokomotiv Moscow - Spartak Moscow    Under2.5 @2.10 (Unibet,Sportsbook)
Milan - Novara   Over3.5 @2.25 (Expekt)
Slavia - Svetkavitsa Over3.5 @2.07 (Betsafe)
Panathinaikos - PAOK Under1.5 @2.95 (Nordicbet)
Juventus - Atalanta Over3.5 @2.35 (Expekt)

Lokomotiv Moscow - Spartak Moscow Under2.5 @2.10 (Unibet,Sportsbook)FT 0:2
Milan - Novara   Over3.5 @2.25 (Expekt)FT 2:1
Slavia - Svetkavitsa Over3.5 @2.07 (Betsafe)FT 2:0
Panathinaikos - PAOK Under1.5 @2.95 (Nordicbet)FT 1:0
Juventus - Atalanta Over3.5 @2.35 (Expekt)FT 3:1

results from last 4 days:

http://www.bookpoint.co.cc/Wagers.aspx


under/over 3.5 =   +8.52 units
under/over 2.5 = +24.67 units
under/over 1.5 =  -11.00 units

Buriram - Guangzhou Over3.5 @2.44(Betfair)

Hmmm... so youre looking for where theres close to a 100% market between bookies prices, and then (for no apparent reason) backing the higher price of the 2.

Complete waste of time.

Buriram - Guangzhou Over3.5 @2.44(Betfair) FT 1:3

Atromitos Athens - Panathinaikos Under1.5 @2.85 (Unibet)

Kalmar - Helsingborg Over2.5 @2.15(Betfair,Unibet)

Atromitos Athens - Panathinaikos Under1.5 @2.85 (Unibet) FT 0:1

Kalmar - Helsingborg Over2.5 @2.15(Betfair,Unibet) FT 1:1

system stats here:

www.underover.org

http://www.underover.org/Wagers.aspx

Torquay - Cheltenham Over2.5 @2.05 (Expekt)

Sturm Graz - Austria Vienna Under2.5 @2.09 (Pinnacle)

Torquay - Cheltenham Over2.5 @2.05 (Expekt) FT 1:2

TSW Pegasus V Sun Hei should go over 2.5 comfortably. 94% of TSW's games this season have gone over 2.5

Sturm Graz - Austria Vienna Under2.5 @2.09 (Pinnacle) FT 1:1

Results for the last 7 days:
http://www.underover.org/Wagers.aspx

under/over 3.50:    +19.08
under/over 2.50:      -7.98
under/over 1.50:     +3.93

Brage - Osters    Under2.5 @2.14(Betfair)
Last 7 matches: Brage 1.3 goal/match, Osters 2.6 goal/match

Brage - Osters    Under2.5 @2.14(Betfair) FT 0:1

Al Jazira - Al Ahli Over3.5 @3.20 (Betfair, Nordicbet)

Rizespor Caykur - Adanaspor Under2.5 @2.05 (Expekt)

May 22, 2012 -- 9:42AM, Gavrail1 wrote:

Al Jazira - Al Ahli Over3.5 @3.20 (Betfair, Nordicbet)

2:2
74 min.

May 22, 2012 -- 12:47PM, Gavrail1 wrote:

Rizespor Caykur - Adanaspor Under2.5 @2.05 (Expekt)

FT 0:1

show off

i can never prosper on the over and unders market, always lose money on goal markets.

just as i am now on over 2.5 goals in the sepahan vs esteghal match

Snap, lost £18 on overs on a stupid 0-0 draw!

Japan - Azerbaijan Under2.5 @2.64 (Betfair)

Japan - Azerbaijan 1:0 HT

Japan - Azerbaijan Under2.5 @2.64 (Betfair) FT 2:0

Results (21 May - 27 May)

under/over 1.5: +13.92 units
under/over 2.5:  +3.81 units
under/over 3.5:  +0.26 units

http://underover.org/Wagers.aspx

Italy U19 - Armenia U19    Under2.50 @2.50 (Betfair)

Kongsvinger - Notodden Under2.50 @2.15 (Expekt)
France U21 - Morocco U21 Under2.50 @2.19 (****)

Metalurg Zaporizhya - Helios Kharkiv Under2.50 @2.40 (Bwin)

Results for 1 month (May 2012)

under/over 1.5:  +4.23 units
under/over 2.5:  +8.78 units
under/over 3.5: +28.66 units

profit: +41.67 units
staked: 216.59 units
ROI: +19.24%

http://underover.org/Wagers.aspx

Viborg - Fredericia Over3.5 @2.95 (Nordicbet)

Viborg - Fredericia FT 0:3

Hungary - Rep Ireland Over2.50 @2.38 (Betfair)

Naestved - Fredericia Over3.50 @2.55 (Nordicbet)
Last 10 matches: Naestved 1.3 goal/match, Fredericia 1.3 goal match

Philippines - Indonesia Over2.50 @2.26 (5Dimes)

IMO it doesn't make sense to bet blindly without taking in to account form or status of match e.g. friendly / u21 / play off etc... it's throwing money away. For example overs in Ireland match was never going to happen - rain was teaming down, Ireland didn't need to win / score (friendly) and have a decent defense, were unbeaten in last 15 away matches etc... it doesn't make any sense to ignore those stats - there needs to *some* kind of real world sense applied before you bet.

Jun 5, 2012 -- 12:03PM, smemon87 wrote:

IMO it doesn't make sense to bet blindly without taking in to account form or status of match e.g. friendly / u21 / play off etc... it's throwing money away. For example overs in Ireland match was never going to happen - rain was teaming down, Ireland didn't need to win / score (friendly) and have a decent defense, were unbeaten in last 15 away matches etc... it doesn't make any sense to ignore those stats - there needs to *some* kind of real world sense applied before you bet.

I believe stats are calculated in the odds and bookies lower the odds for the
statistically probable outcome, so if we find fair odds for the opposite outcome we should take it

Jun 5, 2012 -- 11:47AM, Gavrail wrote:

Philippines - Indonesia Over2.50 @2.26 (5Dimes)

Philippines - Indonesia 1:2 (75min)

Albirex Niigata - Kashima Over2.5 @2.10 (Betfair)

can you please post results for1 may-10 may

Kokkola (Fin) - PK 37 (Fin)    Under2.50 @2.10 (Unibet)

Jun 6, 2012 -- 7:22PM, harriwagwinsall wrote:

can you please post results for1 may-10 may

http://underover.org/Wagers.aspx

thank you

Poland - Greece Under1.50 @2.50 (Betfair)
Frolunda - Ytterby Over3.50 @2.70 (Nordicbet)
Cuba - Canada Over2.50 @2.28 (Betfair)

France - England Under1.50 @2.50 (Betfair)

Russia U21 - Albania U21 Over3.50 @2.05 (Bwin)

Denmark - Portugal Over2.50 @2.10 (Betfair,Expekt)

Jun 13, 2012 -- 1:49PM, Gavrail wrote:

Denmark - Portugal Over2.50 @2.10 (Betfair,Expekt)

FT 2:3

Ytterby - Uddevalla Over3.50 @2.55 (Nordicbet)

Italy - Croatia Over2.50 @2.45 (Betfair,Intertops)

Here are the results for Under/Over system for the last 3 months - May,June,July,part of August
http://underover.org/wagers.aspx

UnderOver15:    Staked: 127.05 units    Profit:  -10.90 units        ROI:   -8.58
UnderOver25:    Staked: 341.51 units    Profit: +26.17 units        ROI:  +7.66
UnderOver35:    Staked: 206.97 units    Profit: +53.90 units        ROI: +26.04

Under/Over 1.5 is losing if you stake on higher odds (winning if you stake on lower)
Under/Over 2.5 is balanced, slightly winning if you stake on higher odds
but Under/Over 3.5 is well profitable when staking on higher odds with ROI +26%!!!

These are results from 9 of May, I continue publish picks at:
http://underover.org/wagers.aspx