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Football
and compares every Under/Over 1.5, 2.5, 3.5 market, each markets has its payout.
fair odds like 2.00 /2.00 has payout = 1.0000
if payout is >1.000 it is sure bet.
I find the matches with highest payout and bet on them
Match: Cesena - Juventus
Over2.5 @1.66 (****)
Under2.5 @2.50 (BlueSq)
payout = 0.998
Pick: Under2.5 @2.50 (BlueSq)
1. Why should the value be in the higher odds? That's an entirely arbitrary distinction- you're much better off looking at deviations from the average and/or from bookmakers you 'trust'
2. It's a dangerous game simply betting on the 'best' options available on any given day. By that I mean you really should set some payout value above which you bet ( I would advise >1 !), otherwise on dry days you may find yourself betting on rather low payouts where the likelihood of value is very small...
Real - Bayern Over3.5 @2.40 FT 2:1
Cesena - Juventus Under2.5 @2.50 FT 0:1
Apr 26, 2012 -- 10:50AM, greenviking wrote:
Gavrail are you Romanian?
No
ATH BILBAO - SP LISBON Under2.5 @2.25 FT 3:1
atl. bilbao in the knockout stages had i believe before last night's game produced 7 games over 2.5 and 1 game under 2.5, or something similar.
what kind of system are you operating that ignores these? because betting on football and ignoring the actual teams playing is an "interesting" approach that im struggling with a bit
Apr 27, 2012 -- 4:37AM, dave_the_poor wrote:
im curiousatl. bilbao in the knockout stages had i believe before last night's game produced 7 games over 2.5 and 1 game under 2.5, or something similar.what kind of system are you operating that ignores these? because betting on football and ignoring the actual teams playing is an "interesting" approach that im struggling with a bit
I'm not looking the history, no statistic, just the odds for current match
Sevilla - Real Betis Under2.50 @2.30(BetUS)
Mallorca - Rayo Vallecano Under2.50 @2.30(BetUS)
Juventus - Lecce Over3.50 @2.30(Expekt)
Barcelona - Malaga Under3.50 @2.34(Betfair)
Mallorca - Rayo Vallecano Under2.50 @2.30(BetUS)FT 1:0
Juventus - Lecce Over3.50 @2.30(Expekt)FT 1:1
Barcelona - Malaga Under3.50 @2.34(Betfair)FT 4:1
Mjallby - Malmo FF Over2.50 @2.10
Gefle - Norrkoping Over2.50 @2.25
Mjallby - Malmo FF Over2.50 @2.10 FT 2:2
Gefle - Norrkoping Over2.50 @2.25 FT 0:2
Last 10 matches: Metz scores 0.8 goal/match, Guingamp 0.9 goal/match
Le Havre - Amiens Under 1.50 @3.75 (Betfair)
Last 10 matches: Le Havre scores 0.3 goal/match, Amiens 0.9 goal/match
2.Palermo - Parma Under2.5 @2.10 FT 1:2 LOSE
3.Milan - Genoa Over3.5 @2.40 FT 1:0 LOSE
4.Real - Bayern Over3.5 @2.40 FT 2:1 LOSE
5.Valencia - Atletico Madrid Under2.5 @2.50 FT 0:1 WIN
6.ATH BILBAO - SP LISBON Under2.5 @2.25 FT 3:1 LOSE
7.Southampton - Coventry UNDER 2.5@2.5 FT4:0 LOSE
8.Sevilla - Real Betis Under2.50 @2.30(BetUS) FT 1:2 LOSE
9.Mallorca - Rayo Vallecano Under2.50 @2.30(BetUS)FT 1:0 WIN
10.Juventus - Lecce Over3.50 @2.30(Expekt)FT 1:1 LOSE
11.Barcelona - Malaga Under3.50 @2.34(Betfair)FT 4:1 LOSE
12.Celtic - Saint Johnstone Under2.50 @2.18 FT 1:0 WIN
13.Mjallby - Malmo FF Over2.50 @2.10 FT 2:2 WIN
14.Gefle - Norrkoping Over2.50 @2.25 FT 0:2 LOSE
5 Picks WON
9 Pics Lost
It's completely losing till now but its OK. I continue publish the picks STRICTLY as the system choose them. For your safety, its good to know that the system disregards any statistic, any history, any missing players, any team news. consider only odds and payout.
If it turns out to be a STABLE loosing system (but I doubt), i'll also play the opposite:)
the point is: Is it loosing or winning
Last 5 matches: Adelaide 2.0 goal/match, Enfield 1.4 goal.match
Vaslui - Gaz Metan Over3.5 @4.10 (Unibet)
Vaslui - Gaz Metan Over2.5 @2.10 (Unibet)
Last 10 matches: Vaslui 1.8 goal/match, GazMetan 1.0 goal/match
Vaslui - Gaz Metan Over2.5 @2.10 (Unibet) FT 4:0
Last 10 matches: Liverpool 1.3 goal/match, Chelsea 1.5 goal/match
Last 10 matches: Polten 1.0 goal/match, Vienna 1.1 goal/match
Polten - First Vienna Under2.5 @2.16 FT 0:2
May 9, 2012 -- 3:43AM, sheihadul wrote:
Could you maybe explain your system? Because to me it looks like random picks.
find under/over markets where payout > 1.000 (sure bet) and bet on higher one.
Example:
Banik Ostrava - Slavia Prague
Over2.5 @2.10 (Expekt)
Under2.5 @1.93 (Betfair)
payout = 1.006
bet: Over2.5 @2.10 (Expekt)
Milan - Novara Over3.5 @2.25 (Expekt)
Slavia - Svetkavitsa Over3.5 @2.07 (Betsafe)
Panathinaikos - PAOK Under1.5 @2.95 (Nordicbet)
Juventus - Atalanta Over3.5 @2.35 (Expekt)
Milan - Novara Over3.5 @2.25 (Expekt)FT 2:1
Slavia - Svetkavitsa Over3.5 @2.07 (Betsafe)FT 2:0
Panathinaikos - PAOK Under1.5 @2.95 (Nordicbet)FT 1:0
Juventus - Atalanta Over3.5 @2.35 (Expekt)FT 3:1
http://www.bookpoint.co.cc/Wagers.aspx
under/over 3.5 = +8.52 units
under/over 2.5 = +24.67 units
under/over 1.5 = -11.00 units
Complete waste of time.
www.underover.org
http://www.underover.org/Wagers.aspx
http://www.underover.org/Wagers.aspx
under/over 3.50: +19.08
under/over 2.50: -7.98
under/over 1.50: +3.93
Last 7 matches: Brage 1.3 goal/match, Osters 2.6 goal/match
May 22, 2012 -- 3:42AM, Gavrail1 wrote:
Al Jazira - Al Ahli Over3.5 @3.20 (Betfair, Nordicbet)
2:2
74 min.
May 22, 2012 -- 6:47AM, Gavrail1 wrote:
Rizespor Caykur - Adanaspor Under2.5 @2.05 (Expekt)
FT 0:1
under/over 1.5: +13.92 units
under/over 2.5: +3.81 units
under/over 3.5: +0.26 units
http://underover.org/Wagers.aspx
France U21 - Morocco U21 Under2.50 @2.19 (****)
under/over 1.5: +4.23 units
under/over 2.5: +8.78 units
under/over 3.5: +28.66 units
profit: +41.67 units
staked: 216.59 units
ROI: +19.24%
http://underover.org/Wagers.aspx
Last 10 matches: Naestved 1.3 goal/match, Fredericia 1.3 goal match
Jun 5, 2012 -- 6:03AM, smemon87 wrote:
IMO it doesn't make sense to bet blindly without taking in to account form or status of match e.g. friendly / u21 / play off etc... it's throwing money away. For example overs in Ireland match was never going to happen - rain was teaming down, Ireland didn't need to win / score (friendly) and have a decent defense, were unbeaten in last 15 away matches etc... it doesn't make any sense to ignore those stats - there needs to *some* kind of real world sense applied before you bet.
I believe stats are calculated in the odds and bookies lower the odds for the
statistically probable outcome, so if we find fair odds for the opposite outcome we should take it
Jun 5, 2012 -- 5:47AM, Gavrail wrote:
Philippines - Indonesia Over2.50 @2.26 (5Dimes)
Philippines - Indonesia 1:2 (75min)
Jun 6, 2012 -- 1:22PM, harriwagwinsall wrote:
can you please post results for1 may-10 may
http://underover.org/Wagers.aspx
Frolunda - Ytterby Over3.50 @2.70 (Nordicbet)
Cuba - Canada Over2.50 @2.28 (Betfair)
Jun 13, 2012 -- 7:49AM, Gavrail wrote:
Denmark - Portugal Over2.50 @2.10 (Betfair,Expekt)
FT 2:3
http://underover.org/wagers.aspx
UnderOver15: Staked: 127.05 units Profit: -10.90 units ROI: -8.58
UnderOver25: Staked: 341.51 units Profit: +26.17 units ROI: +7.66
UnderOver35: Staked: 206.97 units Profit: +53.90 units ROI: +26.04
Under/Over 1.5 is losing if you stake on higher odds (winning if you stake on lower)
Under/Over 2.5 is balanced, slightly winning if you stake on higher odds
but Under/Over 3.5 is well profitable when staking on higher odds with ROI +26%!!!
These are results from 9 of May, I continue publish picks at:
http://underover.org/wagers.aspx
