Football
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
These 173 comments are related to the topic:
The reason most of us do not make long term profit is because.
The reason most of us do not make long term profit is because.
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 173
|
By:
I said though that this was more or less 15 years ago.More or less before the start of the great on-line revolution.
I'll give you an example.He used to record every National Hunt race from the racing channel.He had a massive library of videos going back to the start of the racing channel. When he had a race in mind he would be taking in the 1st entries,these would have sometimes 300 possible starters.That's when his ears would prick up to a possible interest.When the 5 day (that day might be wrong,remember I am now out of touch with racing etc)But anyway,then often at that point he would know if it was a likely play.He would have checked his fancy's last I dont know not at least 10 runs.Sometimes watching certain races more than once.He used to spend fortunes on that form book that always had the official ratings etc in.I think it was "Fineform" not timeform.It is the book that you will always see in a Racehorse trainers kitchen guaranteed.They always have there head in it when they are having breakfast. Anyway he would be cross referencing different stuff,making notes etc.He would have the days befores racing on in the kitchen.A note book at the table & he would spend hours doing other stuff,like making that nights meal,or just talking s*it with whoever,while alway having 1 ear on the telly.Then he'd say,one minute just need to watch this race or replay that.He would then just go scibble something down & then he would start cutting veg again i.e. Also at any point in any of this something would happen & it could mean a cross through that particular horse or race. When the Overnight decs were up was normally when it was most likely whether or whether not he was playing.Normally he would be hoping that certain horses were still in as he had put a pencil over them,so obviously he wanted them in to make value in the race.Quite often he would be wanting a certain horse or maybe 2 or 3 not to run.He wouldn't play if a certain trainer was still in with a possible unexposed horse.Many things,more than I could be a r sed to remember.You can say all this is done for you.Which is true,but even though he obviously listened to others.He would ultimately only back his own judgements.I remember him winning over £30k from something like 32x£1 placepots at Ascot.He would look at a card where he may have 2 fancy's i.e.He may not back them because of the price etc,but if he had say 2 major interests he already had 2 bankers.He might them have a look at the other 4 races.He wouldn't be looking what would be placed,he would be putting a line through as many as didn't interest him.Then I would be hoping that we were going to be on.But he would say to many tricky races & that would be it. I would be gutted,cause tomorrows a week when you were wanting a bet.But saying that he would be playing,then he wouldn't generally put more than £40-00 on a placepot.Normally no more than 32 lines.Which to me is tiny.I used to do 4000x5p sometimes.Now cause of tote-direct etc minimum unit stake is 10p. He never played big on placepots because I think that he considered them more as an interest bet.Just remembered that he had a big telly & video placed strategically so that he could see it while in the bath.You see his life was comsumed with racing racing racing. (By the way I never saw or wanted to see him in the bath) before anyone says anything. He always went abroad a couple of times a year.Obviously out of season etc.He religously went to that Punchestown festivel of racing,as a lot of plots were pulled off there. |
|
By:
Great post pal, a very interesting read! I have studied and read hundreds of pages about discipline, chasing etc and promised my self a thousand times in my head I will never do that again yet i end up ruining myself time and time again, I turned £20 into £259 in about 3 weeks on here, ended up losing it all and now £200 + Down to the point where I even borrowed from Wonga around £200 to try and get myself back on track with betfair, it has been a massive learning curve and I think alot of us are learning all the time, I am trying to make this work I know I have the dedication and knowledge but the chasing is a big problem for me.
|
|
By:
I feel for you m8.I unfortunately aren't a great guy to advise you on curing that one.Because if I could I would be doing it by a pool somewhere nice & hot.
All that I can think of to say (You'll know I dont normally struggle to string stuff together)is to take time to get your sensible bets together.Place them well before the start.Then either watch them with no funds available or if it's a single bet,just do something else to take you mind off the betting behaviour for long enough to be cool. Coming on the forum definately works for me.I get on a long ramble & rant in this thread & I forget about the bet just about completely.Sometimes to the point of missing the next bet I had planned.Any thing that just calms you down must be the answer m8. It's kind of like fighting & I put the fact that I have never had one.Thats because I dont drink.Just think about how many scrappers that you know in your life.Then think how many are on the sauce when they do it.99% of them unless they are Bullies wouldn't kick somebody in the head soba.But a couple of pints of Wifebeater & they can be animals. The point I am trying to make is that if you are soba & treat every bet as if it is the first of the day,clean slate & all that stuff then it's got to be better than placing one when your adrenalin is coursing etc. When I'm fired up with my Gambling frenzy running at full pace think that a bet that starts in 5 minutes is a long time. But when I am chilled,like now I have just been putting stuff on for Saturday.Just having a smoke or taking the dog for a walk can be enough for me. This forum is the best though. I have a bit of a Challenge thing going on in Multiples at the moment.It was actually started by my m8 Bazza.But I am just messing about with mostly correct score multiple lays etc.But the thing is for me to school myself on patience,discipline etc.I go off track a little every now & again.But I am definately teaching myself new stuff & steadily I have built up £100-00 up to over £300-00,it would have been £400-00 if 1 more goal in the Valencia game.But this one has been going for over a week,I am still going.I havn't also had any lairy bets as well in that time & although it isn't a million quid yet.That isn't a problem,because the whole point is the steady behaviour.I will at some point crash.I am mostly dodging bullits.When I crash I will load up again & keep trying. There is I can feel quite a cool buzz about doing it at 1mph instead of a 100mph.Still not convinced that I can keep it up.But hey ho,you have to keep trying or give up. Definately though & I would say the coolest thing about my betting has always been what I always do when I have had a tickle.I withdraw abot 90- to 95% of it out real quick.(If you have a paypal account.I have a way of getting your cash in your bank & ready to spend within 24 hours as well)I will advise if anybodies interested.Anyway I get my cash out,as I did for about 4k on the day before Good Friday this year. I transfered £600-00 into Heathers account,the same into Heathers Mum.This meant that I could withdraw £900-00 straight away.£900-00 the following day.So there is nearly half the cash safe.You see I start treating it like it's in danger of vanishing,which it most probably would be.Next I paid a £675 Fishing trip to Whitby.I paid BT,O-2,Council tax,bought some fishing kit on ebay all on line.Sent Heather into Town with the kids.She filled 2 trolleys at Tesco's,Bought them a Maccy D,bought some cinema tickets,an expensive pair of footy boots for my lad,one of those steam cleaner things for the house.Nicked my m8's car for 10 minutes & filled it up with Diesel £40-00) cause he had done a favour & wouldn't take anything for it.I had it all well & truelly spent within hours of getting it. It was fooking great.This was all stuff that I would have done anyway,but it made the cash safe & everything bought was a free gift as far as I see it.I hate buying really over priced stuff with my hard earnt wages.I have had some kinky stuff in my time.Not kinky kinky,just cushty stuff.I can honestly say I have bought most of it with decent draws from the bookies.I know that I have done many times more than I won etc.But that's like saying putting your saved ciggy money in a jar when you stop.Everyone says it.I bet it's never been done. Oh no the kids are getting up & I'm still here.I'm out working tonight as well.Off to bed now.Good luck everyone especially liverpool89,keep your chin up & dont be to hard on yourself m8.  |
|
By:
|
|
By:
Great read.
|
|
By:
Discipline in betting... is being talked about as a seperate entity to discipline in life.
Track your life from the age of 2, have you been punctual? not off sick? compliant to your teachers/bosses? did you do your homework on time? did you pass your exams with structured revision?, did you save for a luxury or did you borrow? Discipline isn't something you can switch on or off its something that's been learned over a lifetime, if you've not got it you need to live it for a good few years which to the undisciplined sounds a bit too much like hard work, at 51 its too late for you, be content with being a entertaining character. |
|
By:
Are you more than 51 RonaldinhoRAT?
|
|
By:
at 51 its too late for you,
late for you, not late for me, so no i'm not 51 or more... I thought i read earlier he was 51 i might be wrong (quite a lenghty thread) |
|
By:
I don't know RonaldinhoRAT , I have not trawled through the whole thing but I concluded that if you are able to comment about acquiring discipline or not by age 51 that you must be more than 51 and never achieved it.
|
|
By:
Don't follow your logic and assumptions.
Basically anyone who has been successful on BF has bought with them a package of skills, some of the most successful would bring one or more of programming, stats, sports, maths, bookmaking, hard work, fast fingers, discipline, etc etc. All have a unique skills package that will be profitable over a period of time until someone else skills package squeezes them out of the market, the 90% unsuccessful will have a package of skills that aren't honed to a high enough standard and should invest a few thousand hours refining their skills. Discipline is only one of the many skills available. |
|
By:
I thought that you were saying that discipline cannot be learned and if you had not got it by the age of 51 then you would never acquire it.
Possibly I misunderstood. |
|
By:
|
|
By:
 |
|
By:
what is Form?
My interpretation. Form is that one performance is better than another. |
|
By:
Most losers/chasers have too big egos.Cannot accept being wrong from time to time.So when they are wrong they tend to throw their toys out the pram go in the huff,take a hissy fit and do all they can there and then to win it back straight away.Like a young kid crying and lashing out if they don't get their own way.RonaldRat was correct when he mentioned going back to a young age.Discipline starts from youth.If you have been a bad loser most of your life that is not going to change over night especially where betting and money is involved.
Drop the ego,accept your going to be wrong from time to time,be confident that when you are wrong it doesn't matter as you might not win every battle bit if you are good enough you will win the war. |
|
By:
You are both 100% right for sure.
But just like smoking for 40 years & then stoping.It is obviously hard,but it is possible.With hard work & willpower. Also I for one,am a lot more laid back now then I have ever been.This though on my situation is more likely to be because I have settled down & started a family etc.This has all happened since I turned 40.So I suppose I grew up alot from that moment on.Responsability etc. |
|
By:
Basketball: £9.90 | Soccer: £274.70 | Tennis: £230.18 Total P&L: £514.78
Trust me, football is one of the better sports to bet on if you know what you are doing. I have spent 1 year and around 3-4k learning what to do on betfair. Discipline, knowing when to bet and when not to bet, self-restraint when you lose and lot's of practice/patience is required. Tennis is also a great sport because it is only 1 person vs another. I admittedly know very little about tennis but after a month of playing in the tennis markets I have managed to start turning a profit. My above profit was 6 days, not bad for a week. The problem is stopping gambling and knowing when not to bet. I lost around £190 on the Valencia vs Atl Madrid semi, because I bet too heavily and was not watching the match - a spur of the moment bet when I knew it shouldn't have been. That wiped out my most profitable day - I was up £215 by that point and obviously my ego got in the way. Ended the day £35 up and could barely sleep so was playing poker till late. Oh number 1 important rule is mind - you must be well rested and not spend too long on here. |
|
By:
You the man Loaded.Keep it up m8.
|
|
By:
great thread mate.
 i am probably one of the youngest on here but feel i have learnt the harsh reality of bad betting. i am now only 20 made 3-4k trading under/over 2.5 pre off in last 6 month and also match odds. all trades are traded out for red or green at kickoff and this has improved my discipline and has left me every week in profit apart from one this year i have a thread in general betting to talk football trading if any1s interested |
|
By:
Been running a bookies in the area I live. Armed with my satnav and a list of shops and postcodes I have been doing the rounds loading up. Pulled this one postcode off the list and put it in the satnav only to show up at their head office today. The list doesn't say its the head office. Thought its probably not a good idea to waltz in and try to get my bets on there and I would have likely never come out either for that matter. If they had known I was within 50 feet of that place they probably would have shot me.
|
|
By:
icey remember u saying you were an engineer. i am also an engineer, u don't by chance work at aircelle in burnley if so i will come and find you
|
|
By:
no I'm the marine kind of engineer but I am living in the northwest
|
|
By:
orite great stuff i live in blackburn not many pro's live near me
 |
|
By:
Cracking post and topic RD, and I have read it from start to finish, took a while lol. Nice to see the Forum muppets haven't come on in their droves to mock it as they do most topics.
|
|
By:
One thing that hasn't been said is the endless amount of events and how you select your markets and how you bet them, there as some good passages in this book
http://www.guardian.co.uk/books/2011/aug/21/tyranny-choice-renata-selecl-review In a society geared towards the individual, and dominated by consumerism and celebrity, we are constantly encouraged to choose a better life for ourselves. The weight of each choice and the super-abundance of options can cause crippling anxiety and we defer to others to make the right choices for us. When we do get what we want, fulfilment is swiftly replaced by dissatisfaction and desire for a better option Each day we face multiple decisions on what to back, how much, what meeting, what Match, what market on which match with the physical impossibility of proper study of all markets involved. Learning how to summarize is a necessity, spending more time on reaching conclusions on past events leads to far less time spent on trying to assess an event |
|
By:
This probably sums it up better
In one landmark experiment, conducted in an upmarket grocery store in California, researchers set up a sampling table with a display of jams. In the first test they offered a tempting array of 24 different jams to taste; on a different day they displayed just six. Shoppers who took part in the sampling were rewarded with a discount voucher to buy any jam of the same brand in the store. It turned out that more shoppers stopped at the display when there were 24 jams. But when it came to buying afterwards, fully 30% of those who stopped at the six-jam table went on to purchase a pot, against merely 3% of those who were faced with the selection of 24. Expectations have been inflated to such an extent that people think the perfect choice exists The researchers repeated the experiment with chocolate as well as student essay topics and found similar results. Too much choice, concluded Sheena Iyengar of Columbia University and Mark Lepper of Stanford, is demotivating. Others have since come up with similar results from experiments with writing pens, gift boxes, coffee and even American 401(k) pension plans. (It is not all that way: German researchers, by contrast, found that shoppers were not put off by too much choice, whether of jams, chocolates or jelly beans—though this may be down to Germany’s price-conscious shoppers and the sheer dreariness of the country’s supermarkets.) As options multiply, there may be a point at which the effort required to obtain enough information to be able to distinguish sensibly between alternatives outweighs the benefit to the consumer of the extra choice. “At this point”, writes Barry Schwartz in “The Paradox of Choice”, “choice no longer liberates, but debilitates. It might even be said to tyrannise.” In other words, as Mr Schwartz puts it, “the fact that some choice is good doesn’t necessarily mean that more choice is better.” |
|
By:
http://www.economist.com/node/17723028
|
|
By:
The successful punter did he only bet with bookies (it sound like he was betting in the 1990s before Betfair)?
|
|
By:
Been working all weekend.After I have some sleep I'll be posting.
|
|
By:
What a truly fascinating thread this is, so interesting to read.
Real Deal I apreciate your reply! You talk a massive amount of sense, some I havent thought about before and some I am slowly learning myself. I think what you say is right the buzz of building slowly is good especially after you put a consistant run together and start seeing your bank build because its like a reward for your patience, I am getting there slowly but surely, no doubt some of the stuff I have thread in this thread has already helped me. Lets hope your good streak upto £300 continues! I see you got also got burnt in the Valencia game.. I had both to score in that one, was gutted. As for doing things to take your mind off it, that is absolutely spot on the worst thing I and i am sure any other gambler/Trader can do is place a bet with emotion and I think that is the biggest problem like you say in your opening post that it is human nature! I look forward to seeing this thread continue and reading every new post! |
|
By:
The way you seem to get money out and spent on important things quickly also seems a good method and very rewarding aswell!
|
|
By:
The form book won't have been "Fineform" that was just a system (an overmarketed one!). I'm guessing it was Superform? I had a lot of success using their form book and miss it a lot. They had a unique approach to assessing race times that basically was the same as the Beyer/Mordin/modern day Raceform approach though expressed differently and ahead of it's time UK wise. Only went wrong when they got lazy at updating the standard times.
|
|
By:
Or maybe Raceform? Which is what I have to use now, albeit as a downloaded database...
|
|
By:
great stuff real deal, proper thread talking about getting a good mindset set for making cash on this site, which is harder to do than meets the eye. had a typical week for me on here. turned a tenner into £64 from tuesday to saturday, then done my usual, its saturday too many things to bet on head was everywhere looking for value. not enough hours in a day to sort out saturday. horses football golf all screaming at ye. as per usual blew the lot. as shapeshifter said other day you have to remove the emotion, and try and be more clinical in your thinking. im fine all week but saturday has too many distractions. its coming at you from all angles. anyway back to the drawing board for me, must do better.
|
|
By:
highs and lows
Christmas week, I got 2 horse racing tips from two friends of mine(in the know). One was in England, during the day (won bf sp 26.6), and the other was in Dundalk, Ireland at 9pm(lost bf sp 2.70). I backed both horses in online and a few euros in the bookie shop. I decided to do a super yankee on here as I fancied three other ones. Here is the running order of the five selections; 1-won 26.6 2-won 8.0 3-2nd 5.0 4-won-13.2 5-ultra cool 9pm dundalk- unplaced Before the last selection ran I was totting up the what ifs? and I realised I was collecting €2000+ for a €28 bet on the 4 results so far. I was in my house with a mate and my Siberian Husky(who gets very excited when I do watching the ponies), that I decided I had two hours until my final selection ran, I would put in some extra study into how it might trade in running so I could get into a better position. The horse was trading at 7.60 and I believed it would be smashed in, and if not it would trade short. I put €150 on at 7.6 and planned a nice little lay at 2.88. It was backed into 2.68 before the off and I was looking at a high of 6k and a low of 3k. I went to the pub to watch the race and he finished 5th. I was so annoyed, but I was happy as I was up 3k on the day. I returned home from the pub a few hours later and went to bed. Got up on Saturday morning to check my balance and withdraw the funds, but when I opened my laptop-all the keys fell on the ground. The screen was smashed also. I looked at the ground and there were pieces of black and yellow fly line everywhere. I had bought two new flylines for salmon fishing the day before, costing €280 and had put them on my reels earlier. Basicaly the dog had decided to play with the reels(probably throwing them up in the air and landing on the laptop). I had collected €3150 from the betting, but had to buy a new laptop €580 and new lines €280, so the joy was short lived. I gave the dog a root in the hole, which I thought would help, but later I realised that maybe it was meant to be. Anyway, twas a good christmas and my new laptop is way faster and better than the old one. |
|
By:
loadedgimp
Joined: 16 Mar 11 Replies: 9711 27 Apr 12 15:36 Basketball: £9.90 | Soccer: £274.70 | Tennis: £230.18 Total P&L: £514.78 Trust me, football is one of the better sports to bet on if you know what you are doing. I have spent 1 year and around 3-4k learning what to do on betfair. Discipline, knowing when to bet and when not to bet, self-restraint when you lose and lot's of practice/patience is required. Tennis is also a great sport because it is only 1 person vs another. I admittedly know very little about tennis but after a month of playing in the tennis markets I have managed to start turning a profit. My above profit was 6 days, not bad for a week. The problem is stopping gambling and knowing when not to bet. I lost around £190 on the Valencia vs Atl Madrid semi, because I bet too heavily and was not watching the match - a spur of the moment bet when I knew it shouldn't have been. That wiped out my most profitable day - I was up £215 by that point and obviously my ego got in the way. Ended the day £35 up and could barely sleep so was playing poker till late. Oh number 1 important rule is mind - you must be well rested and not spend too long on here. loadedgimp, another good thing to develop ...don't make excuses for losing bets.Accept them and get on with it. |
|
By:
 . good one newmanix. i,d have put the dogs name down for an arctic expedition as punishment. |
|
By:
Punishment? that would be his ideal holiday
|
|
By:
In reading this thread and others, I am always astonished to learn that everyone wins on Betair.
My favourite one of all is that some people "trade" they don't gamble. Apparently it's impossible to lose if you are a "trader" because it's like the stockmarket and they are more sophisticated than common gamblers. Remember they are not gamblers, they are traders - stockbrokers if you will  |
|
By:
I'm pretty sure the "betfair stockbrokers" turn up at their laptop wearing a cravat
|