Team	Rating		Team	Rating
Juventus	98.5		Sampdoria	85.5
Napoli	95.0		Parma	85.0
AC Milan	94.0		Torino	84.5
Inter	93.0		Siena	84.5
Lazio	92.5		Cagliari	84.0
Fiorentina	92.0		Atalanta	84.0
Roma	91.5		Chievo	83.5
Udinese	89.0		Genoa	82.0
Catania	87.5		Palermo	81.5
Bologna	85.5		Pescara	80.5

	Home		Draw	Away
2.50	Catania		3.52	Udinese		3.17
5.14	Bologna		4	Juventus		1.80
2.23	Siena		3.63	Cagliari		3.62
1.40	AC Milan		5.68	Palermo		9.69
1.50	Fiorentina		4.9	Genoa		7.74
1.46	Napoli		5.12	Atalanta		8.35
2.76	Pescara		3.28	Chievo		2.99
1.69	Roma		4.24	Parma		5.8
3.26	Sampdoria		3.55	Inter		2.43
3.52	Torino		3.48	Lazio		2.32

Pescara and Torino done with page 1 table , others page 8

another £1.01 (liability) Layed on United@1.15

£2 (liability) Lay,Valencia@1.67 & £2 Betis@6.2

disastrous results from all that, will update results table tommorow

Team	Rating		Team	Rating
Man United	100.0		Fulham	85.5
Man City	99.0		Stoke	84.5
Chelsea	96.5		Norwich	84.5
Tottenham	96.0		Wigan	84.0
Liverpool	94.5		West Ham	84.0
Arsenal	94.0		Aston Villa	84.0
Everton	92.0		Sunderland	83.5
Newcastle	87.5		Southampton	83.0
Swansea	87.0		QPR	82.5
West Brom	86.5		Reading	81.5

page 1 conversion table used for West Ham & Fulham ,Page 8 for others

	Home		Draw	Away
6.86	Sunderland		4.6	Man United		1.57
1.40	Arsenal		5.8	Reading		9.69
1.44	Man City		5.24	Newcastle		8.71
5.36	Southampton		4.08	Chelsea		1.76
3.79	Swansea		3.66	Tottenham		2.16
2.67	West Ham		3.32	West Brom		3.07
2.36	Wigan		3.57	Norwich		3.38
1.63	Everton		4.4	Stoke		6.28
4.11	Aston Villa		3.72	Liverpool		2.05
2.00	Fulham		3.70	QPR		4.3

this is the worst run i've ever had , or seen anyone have on football betting , good thing only small stakes

	Match		P/L	Bet 1		Bet 2	Stake		Return	Tot.Stk.		Tot.Ret.	ROI		Bank	Com.Tot.
235	Malaga v Porto		£5.64	£3 Malaga@2.98			£3.00		£8.64
236	Bayern Munich v Arsenal		£20.97	£2 Lay,Bayern Munich@1.38		£2 Arsenal@9.4	£4.00		£24.97	£1,125.00		£1,050.71	93.40%		£225.71	£30.64
237	Everton v Man City		£8.44	£3 Lay,Man City@2.04		£2 Everton@4	£5.00		£13.44	£1,130.00		£1,064.15	94.17%		£234.15	£31.08
238	Sociedad v Valladolid		£3.94	£1.94 Lay,Sociedad@1.61		£2 Valladolid@7	£3.94		£0.00
239	Southampton v Liverpool		£6.98	£6.98Lay,Southampton@4.1			£6.98		£0.00
240	Stoke v West Brom		£3.00	£3 Stoke@2.94			£3.00		£0.00
241	Aston Villa v QPR		£2.74	£2 Aston Villa@2.44			£2.00		£4.74	£1,145.92		£1,068.89	93.28%		£222.97	£31.22
242	Man United v Reading		£4.01	£2.01 Lay,Man United@1.16		£2 Reading@24	£4.01		£0.00	£1,149.93		£1,068.89	92.95%		£218.96	£31.22
243	Bologna v Juventus		£2.00	£2 Bologna@5.8			£2.00		£0.00	£1,151.93		£1,068.89	92.79%		£216.96	£31.22
244	Valencia v Betis		£4.00	£2 Lay,Valencia@1.67		£2 Betis@6.2	£4.00		£0.00	£1,155.93		£1,068.89	92.47%		£212.96	£31.22
245	Malaga v Espanyol		£9.00	£9 Malaga@1.94			£9.00		£0.00	£1,164.93		£1,068.89	91.76%		£203.96	£31.22
246	Siena v Cagliari		£5.00	£5 Lay,Draw@3.25			£5.00		£0.00	£1,169.93		£1,068.89	91.36%		£198.96	£31.22
247	Sunderland v Norwich		£0.79	£3 Lay,Sunderland@2.06		£2 Norwich@4.3	£5.00		£5.79	£1,174.93		£1,074.68	91.47%		£199.75	£31.26
248	Napoli v Atalanta		£2.17	£4 Napoli@1.57			£4.00		£6.17
249	Pescara v Chievo		£4.00	£4Lay,Chievo@2.54			£4.00		£0.00
250	Fiorentina v Genoa		£2.00	£2 Genoa@9.6			£2.00		£0.00
251	AC Milan v Palermo		£2.00	£2 Palermo@13			£2.00		£0.00	£1,186.93		£1,080.85	91.06%		£193.92	£31.37
252	Sevilla v Zaragoza		£20.97	£2 Lay,Sevilla@1.43		£2 Zaragoza@9.6	£4.00		£0.00
253	Wigan v Newcastle		£5.00	£3 Lay,Wigan@2.32		£2 Newcastle@3.45	£5.00		£0.00	£1,195.93		£1,080.85	90.38%		£184.92	£31.37
254	Osasuna v Athletico Madrid		£3.25	£3 Athletico Madrid@2.14			£3.00		£6.25	£1,198.93		£1,087.10	90.67%		£188.17	£31.54
255	Roma v Parma		£2.00	£2 Parma@7.2			£2.00		£0.00
256	Torino v Lazio		£9.00	£5 Lay,Torino@2.50		£4 Lazio@3.35	£9.00		£0.00	£1,209.93		£1,087.10	89.85%		£177.17	£31.54
257	Barcelona v Rayo Vallecano		£4.00	£2 Lay,Barcelona@1.13		£2 Rayo Vallecano@32	£4.00		£0.00
258	Granada v Levante		£2.91	£6 Lay,Granada@1.99		£3 Levante@4.6	£9.00		£11.91	£1,222.93		£1,099.01	89.87%		£176.08	£31.69
259	Man City v Newcastle		£4.00	£2 Lay,Man City@1.33		£2 Newcastle@12.5	£4.00		£0.00
260	Arsenal v Reading		£4.00	£2 Lay,Arsenal@1.27		£2 Reading@14.5	£4.00		£0.00
261	Wigan v Norwich		£4.00	£2 Lay,Wigan @1.97		£2 Norwich@4.6	£4.00		£0.00
262	West Ham v West Brom		£3.00	£3 West Brom@3.75			£3.00		£0.00
263	Swansea v Tottenham		£2.74	£2 Tottenham@2.44			£2.00		£4.74
264	Southampton v Chelsea		£6.00	£6 Chelsea@2.26			£6.00		£0.00	£1,245.93		£1,103.75	88.59%		£157.82	£31.83
265	Everton v Stoke		£1.97	£6 Lay,Draw@3.9			£6.00		£7.97	£1,251.93		£1,111.72	88.80%		£159.79	£31.93
266	Aston Villa v Liverpool		£4.00	£2 Lay,Liverpool@1.73		£2 Aston Villa@5.3	£4.00		£0.00	£1,255.93		£1,111.72	88.52%		£155.79	£31.93

of course lost £4.00 on match 252

£2 (liabilty) Lay,Bayern Munich@1.65 & £2 Juventus@6.6
£2 (liabilty) Lay,Real Madrid@1.19 & £2 Galatasaray@22

didn't think the prices were different enough from mine . Have to be more choosy with half a bank

	Match		P/L	Bet 1		Bet 2	Stake		Return	Tot.Stk.		Tot.Ret.	ROI		Bank	Com.Tot.
252	Sevilla v Zaragoza		£4.00	£2 Lay,Sevilla@1.43		£2 Zaragoza@9.6	£4.00		£0.00
253	Wigan v Newcastle		£5.00	£3 Lay,Wigan@2.32		£2 Newcastle@3.45	£5.00		£0.00	£1,195.93		£1,080.85	90.38%		£184.92	£31.37
254	Osasuna v Athletico Madrid		£3.25	£3 Athletico Madrid@2.14			£3.00		£6.25	£1,198.93		£1,087.10	90.67%		£188.17	£31.54
255	Roma v Parma		£2.00	£2 Parma@7.2			£2.00		£0.00
256	Torino v Lazio		£9.00	£5 Lay,Torino@2.50		£4 Lazio@3.35	£9.00		£0.00	£1,209.93		£1,087.10	89.85%		£177.17	£31.54
257	Barcelona v Rayo Vallecano		£4.00	£2 Lay,Barcelona@1.13		£2 Rayo Vallecano@32	£4.00		£0.00
258	Granada v Levante		£2.91	£6 Lay,Granada@1.99		£3 Levante@4.6	£9.00		£11.91	£1,222.93		£1,099.01	89.87%		£176.08	£31.69
259	Man City v Newcastle		£4.00	£2 Lay,Man City@1.33		£2 Newcastle@12.5	£4.00		£0.00
260	Arsenal v Reading		£4.00	£2 Lay,Arsenal@1.27		£2 Reading@14.5	£4.00		£0.00
261	Wigan v Norwich		£4.00	£2 Lay,Wigan @1.97		£2 Norwich@4.6	£4.00		£0.00
262	West Ham v West Brom		£3.00	£3 West Brom@3.75			£3.00		£0.00
263	Swansea v Tottenham		£2.74	£2 Tottenham@2.44			£2.00		£4.74
264	Southampton v Chelsea		£6.00	£6 Chelsea@2.26			£6.00		£0.00	£1,245.93		£1,103.75	88.59%		£157.82	£31.83
265	Everton v Stoke		£1.97	£6 Lay,Draw@3.9			£6.00		£7.97	£1,251.93		£1,111.72	88.80%		£159.79	£31.93
266	Aston Villa v Liverpool		£4.00	£2 Lay,Liverpool@1.73		£2 Aston Villa@5.3	£4.00		£0.00	£1,255.93		£1,111.72	88.52%		£155.79	£31.93
267	Bayern Munich v Juventus		£4.00	£2 Lay,Bayern Munich@1.65		£2 Juventus@6.6	£4.00		£0.00	£1,259.93		£1,111.72	88.24%		£151.79	£31.93
268	Real Madrid v Galatasaray		£4.00	£2 Lay,Real Madrid@1.19		£2 Galatasaray@22	£4.00		£0.00	£1,263.93		£1,111.72	87.96%		£147.79	£31.93

all those prices are wrong

£4 Reading@3.45
£2 West Brom@4.3

yeah RMB , forget to say , rated them 94.0

the key thing is not how good the player missing is as such, more the difference between him and the player that comes in

You'd think it would be necessary to drop Barca's rating by a lot with Messi out , but they replace him with Fabregas , who showed how he can play the  Messi position better than anyone other than Messi himself (people seemed to think Fab was an alternate for Iniesta or Xavi, but he can't realy do what they do so good ,but they would not be such good replacements for Messi)

Yes it will be intriguing to see what Spurs do without Bale as i'm not sure how they replace him but a drop of 2.0 seems about right.

As for this whole thread , the ratings and Page 8 conversion Table seem much better to me , rarely do my odds seem silly in comparison to the markets (so i struggle to find a bet in  England more) but the results have been terrible lately as whenever i'm out of line i seem to lose big .

The losing does affect confidence ; as subconsciously  try to limit bets and missed out on some ; the draw in Norwich/Swansea was a bet on my ratings but i can't recall considering it . I'd have made Betis favs v Granada by the ratings (they were available @3.25 and won 4-0) but not much enthusiasm for pricing up leagues when on a disastrous run.

The main flaws this has revealed are how slow i am to adjust ratings when they are wrong (notably Espanyol & Southampton, but several others no doubt) and this will all have  to be revised if i am ever to resume football match odds betting with serious money.

As it is though i'll carry on with the same methods on this thread till the bank falls to  £1.99

Tober, destroying some piss poor team in Spain is one thing but could Cesc do it against the best? I doubt it

Probably not as even if it was succesful the % of winning markets would likely be below 40% . Not that the premium charge is a pressing concern with this thread 

Team	Rating		Team	Rating
Barcelona	107.0		Juventus	99.0
Real Madrid	104.5		Paris St Germain	95.0
Bayern Munich	103.5		Malaga	92.0
Borrussia Dortmund	100.0		Galatasaray	90.0

	Home		Draw	Away
5.8	Galatasaray		4.24	Real Madrid		1.69
1.60	Borrussia Dortmund		4.5	Malaga		6.54
2.89	Juventus		3.43	Bayern Munich		2.76
1.42	Barcelona		5.36	Paris St Germain		9.16

£3 Real Madrid@1.81 (not matched , doubt it'll get that high but mot worth backing below imo)
£2 (liabilty) Lay,Borrussia Dortmund@1.43 & £2 Malaga@9.2

yeah  Fab did not have a good night

Team	Rating		Team	Rating
Chelsea	96.5		Rubin Kazan	90.0
Tottenham	95.5		Fenerbahce	88.0
Benfica	94.5		Newcastle	87.0
Lazio	91.5		Basel	86.0

	Home		Draw	Away
3.92	Rubin Kazan		3.60	Chelsea		2.13
2.04	Basel		3.66	Tottenham		4.21
1.45	Lazio		4.90	Fenerbahce		9.26
5.78	Newcastle		3.96	Benfica		1.74

correct odds

	Home		Draw	Away
3.17	Rubin Kazan		3.52	Chelsea		2.50
3.38	Basel		3.57	Tottenham		2.36
1.92	Lazio		3.82	Fenerbahce		4.6
3.38	Newcastle		3.57	Benfica		2.36

Lot of injuries for spurs (including Bale) - not sure could back them that price away?

You know this is all completely pointless if your "ratings" and "correct odds" are regulary wrong (which they are)

I guess it's subjective though.

GL

£2 (liabilty) Lay,Arsenal@1.30 & £2 Norwich@14
£2 Fulham@3.55
£2 (liabilty) Lay, Southampton@1.81 & £2 West Ham@5
£2 (liabilty) Lay,Liverpool@1.47 & £2 Reading@8

£2 Millwall@4.6

Team	Rating		Team	Rating
Juventus	99.0		Sampdoria	85.0
Napoli	95.0		Parma	85.0
AC Milan	94.0		Torino	84.5
Inter	92.5		Siena	84.5
Lazio	92.0		Cagliari	84.5
Fiorentina	92.0		Atalanta	84.5
Roma	91.0		Chievo	83.5
Udinese	89.0		Genoa	82.0
Catania	87.5		Palermo	82.0
Bologna	85.0		Pescara	80.0

	Home		Draw	Away
2.70	Palermo		3.45	Bologna		2.94
3.50	Cagliari		3.60	Inter		2.29
2.83	Chievo		3.40	Catania		2.83
2.70	Genoa		3.45	Sampdoria		2.94
2.83	Parma		3.40	Udinese		2.83
3.17	Torino		3.52	Roma		2.50
2.43	AC Milan		3.55	Napoli		3.26
3.26	Lazio		3.55	Juventus		2.43