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By:
tobermory When: 31 Jan 13 19:02
£3 Athletico Madrid@1.82

don't know if that'll be matched
By:
tobermory When: 02 Feb 13 01:22
Match P/L Bet 1 Bet 2 Stake Return Tot.Stk. Tot.Ret. ROI Bank Com.Tot.
157 Betis v Athletic Bilbao £2.00 £2 Athletic Bilbao@4.5 £2.00 £0.00 £788.00 £717.40 91.04% £229.40 £22.56
158 Sevilla v Zaragoza £8.00 £6 Lay, Sevilla@1.48 £2 Zaragoza@8.6 £8.00 £0.00
159 Swansea v Chelsea £2.00 £2 Swansea@4.6 £2.00 £0.00
160 Arsenal v West Ham £2.01 £4 Arsenal@1.53 £4.00 £6.01 £802.00 £723.41 90.20% £221.41 £22.67
161 Betis v Athletico Madrid £7.00 £7 Athletico Madrid@2.42 £7.00 £0.00 £809.00 £723.41 89.42% £214.41 £22.67
162 Malaga v Barcelona £4.00 £2 Lay,Barcelona@1.48 £2 Malaga@8.2 £4.00 £0.00 £813.00 £723.41 88.98% £210.41 £22.67
163 Rayo Vallecano v Betis £2.00 £2 Betis@3.8 £2.00 £0.00
164 Oldham v Liverpool £6.00 £6 Liverpool@1.28 £6.00 £0.00 £821.00 £723.41 89.42% £202.41 £22.67
165 Athletic Bilbao v Athletico Madrid £7.00 £7 Athletico Madrid@2.56 £7.00 £0.00 88.11%
166 Mallorca v Malaga £5.78 £4 Malaga@2.52 £4.00 £9.78 £832.00 £733.19 88.12% £201.19 £22.97
167 Sevilla v Granada £2.00 £2 Lay,Sevilla@1.47 £2.00 £0.00 £834.00 £733.19 87.91% £199.19 £22.97
168 Sunderland v Swansea £3.00 £3 Sunderland@2.7 £3.00 £0.00 £837.00 £733.19 87.60% £196.19 £22.97
169 Everton v West Brom £2.00 £2 West Brom@7 £2.00 £0.00
170 Real Madrid v Barcelona £3.54 £5 Lay,Barcelona@2.34 £5.00 £8.54
171 Man United v Southampton £1.54 £6 Man United@1.27 £6.00 £7.54 £850.00 £749.27 88.15% £199.27 £23.24
172 Athletico Madrid v Sevilla £2.34 £3 Athletico Madrid@1.82 £3.00 £5.34 £853.00 £754.61 88.47% £201.61 £23.36



Team Rating Team Rating
Man City 99.5 Stoke 85.5
Man United 99.5 Fulham 85.5
Chelsea 96.5 Sunderland 84.5
Tottenham 95.5 Norwich 84.5
Liverpool 94.5 West Ham 84.5
Arsenal 94.5 Wigan 83.5
Everton 92.0 Aston Villa 82.5
Newcastle 87.5 Southampton 82.0
Swansea 86.5 QPR 82.0
West Brom 86.0 Reading 82.0


Home Draw Away
2.67 QPR 3.32 Norwich 3.07
1.49 Arsenal 5.05 Stoke 7.75
1.46 Everton 5.2 Aston Villa 8.18
3.76 Newcastle 3.68 Chelsea 2.16
2.76 Reading 3.28 Sunderland 2.99
2.59 West Ham 3.34 Swansea 3.17
2.10 Wigan 3.70 Southampton 3.93
5.8 Fulham 4.35 Man United 1.67
3.93 West Brom 3.70 Tottenham 2.10
1.75 Man City 4.1 Liverpool 5.4


games 1,5,6 done with lower goals expectancy table on page 1

none of these matched yet..

£5 (liabilty) Lay, QPR@1.99 & £2 Norwich@4.4
£2 Aston Villa@10
£5 Man City@1.95
By:
tobermory When: 02 Feb 13 14:57
nothing matched QPR game

£5 (liabilty) Lay, Southampton@3.5
£2 Newcastle@4.4
£2 Stoke@10.5
By:
tobermory When: 02 Feb 13 17:12
£2 (liabilty) Lay,Man United@1.55 & £2 Fulham@7
By:
tobermory When: 02 Feb 13 17:58
Team Rating Team Rating
Barcelona 108.0 Rayo Vallecano 86.0
Real Madrid 104.5 Getafe 85.5
Athletico Madrid 98.0 Valladolid 85.0
Malaga 94.0 Celta Vigo 84.0
Valencia 92.5 Mallorca 84.0
Seville 89.0 Zaragoza 83.5
Real Sociedad 88.0 Osasuna 83.5
Athletic Bilbao 88.0 Espanol 82.0
Betis 87.5 Granada 82.0
Levante 87.0 Deportivo La Coruna 82.0



Home Draw Away
2.95 Espanol 3.45 Levante 2.70
17.5 Granada 7 Real Madrid 1.25
1.41 Malaga 5.5 Zaragoza 9.23
1.94 Seville 3.82 Rayo Vallecano 4.51
6.79 Valencia 4.6 Barcelona 1.57
1.41 Athletico Madrid 5.5 Betis 9.23
1.84 Real Sociedad 3.93 Mallorca 4.93



£5 (liabilty) Lay,Espanol@2.20 & £3 Levante@3.95
£8 Real Madrid@1.37
By:
tobermory When: 03 Feb 13 15:45
£3 (liabilty) Lay, Seville@1.58 & £2 Vallecano@6.8
By:
tobermory When: 03 Feb 13 19:59
disastrous stuff this

£2.01 (liabilty) Lay, Sociedad@1.66 & £2 Mallorca@6
By:
tobermory When: 13 Feb 13 00:38
devising ratings for Spain having watched about 4 games in the 1st half of the season not been a wise move


Match P/L Bet 1 Bet 2 Stake Return Tot.Stk. Tot.Ret. ROI Bank Com.Tot.
166 Mallorca v Malaga £5.78 £4 Malaga@2.52 £4.00 £9.78 £832.00 £733.19 88.12% £201.19 £22.97
167 Sevilla v Granada £2.00 £2 Lay,Sevilla@1.47 £2.00 £0.00 £834.00 £733.19 87.91% £199.19 £22.97
168 Sunderland v Swansea £3.00 £3 Sunderland@2.7 £3.00 £0.00 £837.00 £733.19 87.60% £196.19 £22.97
169 Everton v West Brom £2.00 £2 West Brom@7 £2.00 £0.00
170 Real Madrid v Barcelona £3.54 £5 Lay,Barcelona@2.34 £5.00 £8.54
171 Man United v Southampton £1.54 £6 Man United@1.27 £6.00 £7.54 £850.00 £749.27 88.15% £199.27 £23.24
172 Athletico Madrid v Sevilla £2.34 £3 Athletico Madrid@1.82 £3.00 £5.34 £853.00 £754.61 88.47% £201.61 £23.36
173 Wigan v Southampton £1.90 £5 Lay,Southampton@3.5 £5.00 £6.90 £
174 Arsenal v Stoke £2.00 £2 Stoke@10.5 £2.00 £0.00 /color] [color=darkgreen]
175 Everton v Aston Villa £2.00 £2 Aston Villa@10 £2.00 £0.00
176 Newcastle v Chelsea £6.46 £2 Newcastle@4.4 £2.00 £8.46 £864.00 £769.97 89.12% £205.97 £23.80
177 Fulham v Man United £4.00 £2 Lay,Man United@1.55 £2 Fulham@7 £4.00 £0.00 £868.00 £769.97 88.70% £201.97 £23.80
178 Espanyol v Levante £8.00 £5 Lay,Espanyol@2.20 £3 Levante@3.95 £8.00 £0.00 £876.00 £769.97  87.90% £193.97 £23.80
179 Granada v Real Madrid £8.00 £8 Real Madrid@1.37 £8.00 £0.00 £884.00 £769.97 87.10% £185.97 £23.80
180 Man City v Liverpool £5.00 £5 Man City@1.95 £5.00 £0.00
181 Sevilla v Rayo Vallecano £5.00 £3 Lay,Sevilla@1.58 £2 Rayo Vallecano@6.8 £5.00 £0.00 £894.00 £769.97 86.13% £175.97 £23.80
182 Sociedad v Mallorca £4.01 £2.01 Lay,Sociedad@1.66 £2 Mallorca@6 £4.01 £0.00 £903.01 £769.97 85.27% £171.96 £23.80
By:
tobermory When: 13 Feb 13 00:44
Team Rating Team Rating
Real Madrid 104.0 Borrussia Dortmund 99.5
Man United 99.5 Shaktar Donetsk 94.5


Home Draw Away
1.79 Real Madrid 4 Man United 5.2
2.95 Shaktar Donetsk 3.45 Borrussia Dortmund 2.70


£3 (liabilty) Lay, Real Madrid@1.66
By:
kenilworth When: 13 Feb 13 13:36
tobermory, I've been away. How are you doing
on this thread overall?
By:
iamhewho When: 13 Feb 13 13:52
nice thread looks like your down no £300 start now £171.96  down 42.68%

seriously good thread tho i like it

but surely static ratings for teams are no good how about ratings based on the last 2 games only would that work
By:
n88uk When: 13 Feb 13 14:08
Is there ever any condition about home advantage being worth more in some European venues. It's obviously a tougher journey to a place like Ukraine than it is to France.
By:
tobermory When: 17 Feb 13 14:44
Home Draw Away
1.71 Liverpool 4 Swansea 6.02


£3 (laibilty) Lay, Liverpool@1.42 &£2 Swansea@9.4
By:
tobermory When: 17 Feb 13 17:58
Team Rating Team Rating
Real Madrid 104.0 Rayo Vallecano 85.5
Athletico Madrid 97.5 Valladolid 85.0
Betis 87.5 Espanyol 83.0



Home Draw Away
5.2 Valldolid 4 Athletico Madrid 1.79
2.89 Espanyol 3.43 Betis 2.76
1.15 Real Madrid 9.9 Vallecano 34.5


£2 Athletico Madrid@1.93
£3 (liabilty) Lay, Espanyol@2.04 & £3 Betis@4.2
By:
tobermory When: 17 Feb 13 19:30
£5 Real Madrid@1.22
By:
tobermory When: 19 Feb 13 01:40
Team Rating Team Rating
Bayern Munich|102.5 Arsenal 94.5
Porto 94.5 Malaga 93.5


Home Draw Away
3.47 Arsenal 3.63 Bayern Munich 2.29
2.16 Porto 3.68 Malaga 3.76


£2 Arsenal@4.1
£2 (liablity) Lay, Porto @1.83 & £2 Malaga@5.4
By:
tobermory When: 20 Feb 13 00:16
Team Rating Team Rating
Barcelona 107.5 AC Milan 93.5
Schalke 94.0 Galatasaray 89.0


Home Draw Away
5.8 AC Milan 4.35 Barcelona 1.67
2.95 Galatasaray 3.45 Schalke 2.70


£2 (liabilty) Lay, Barcelona@1.53 & £2 AC Milan@7.6
£3 (liabilty) Lay, Galatasaray@2.16 & £3 Schalke@3.85
By:
tobermory When: 23 Feb 13 02:21

Feb 13, 2013 -- 1:36PM, kenilworth wrote:


tobermory, I've been away. How are you doing on this thread overall?


very badly Ken .The table showing the 'bank' figure shows . Started with £300

By:
tobermory When: 23 Feb 13 02:23

Feb 13, 2013 -- 1:52PM, iamhewho wrote:


nice thread looks like your down no £300 start now £171.96  down 42.68%seriously good thread tho i like it but surely static ratings for teams are no good how about ratings based on the last 2 games only would that work


ty Iam . I don't think last couple of games would be any good as teams in and out of form .Maybe i change the ratings too slowly .But i think only changing gradually is the correct way, unless they are way out to begin with , which they probably are with Spain.

By:
tobermory When: 23 Feb 13 02:24

Feb 13, 2013 -- 2:08PM, n88uk wrote:


Is there ever any condition about home advantage being worth more in some European venues. It's obviously a tougher journey to a place like Ukraine than it is to France.


You could be right there , but i would need to do a lot of analysis to be sure (comparing away v home for different countries in Euro games)

By:
tobermory When: 23 Feb 13 03:01
Match P/L Bet 1 Bet 2 Stake Return Tot.Stk. Tot.Ret. ROI Bank Com.Tot.
176 Newcastle v Chelsea £6.46 £2 Newcastle@4.4 £2.00 £8.46 £864.00 £769.97 89.12% £205.97 £23.80
177 Fulham v Man United £4.00 £2 Lay,Man United@1.55 £2 Fulham@7 £4.00 £0.00 £868.00 £769.97 88.70% £201.97 £23.80
178 Espanyol v Levante £8.00 £5 Lay,Espanyol@2.20 £3 Levante@3.95 £8.00 £0.00 £876.00 £769.97  87.90% £193.97 £23.80
179 Granada v Real Madrid £8.00 £8 Real Madrid@1.37 £8.00 £0.00 £884.00 £769.97 87.10% £185.97 £23.80
180 Man City v Liverpool £5.00 £5 Man City@1.95 £5.00 £0.00
181 Sevilla v Rayo Vallecano £5.00 £3 Lay,Sevilla@1.58 £2 Rayo Vallecano@6.8 £5.00 £0.00 £894.00 £769.97 86.13% £175.97 £23.80
182 Sociedad v Mallorca £4.01 £2.01 Lay,Sociedad@1.66 £2 Mallorca@6 £4.01 £0.00 £898.01 £769.97 85.74% £171.96 £23.80
183 Real Madrid v Man United £4.32 £3 Lay,Real Madrid@1.66 £3.00 £7.32 £901.01 £777.29 86.27% £176.28 £24.03
184 Liverpool v Swansea £5.00 £3 Lay,Liverpool@1.42 £2 Swansea@9.4 £5.00 £0.00 £906.01 £777.29 85.79% £171.28 £24.03
185 Valladolid v Athletico Madrid £1.77 £2 Athletico Madrid@1.93 £2.00 £3.77 £908.01 £781.06 86.02% £173.05 £24.12
186 Real Madrid v Rayo Vallecano £1.04 £5 Real Madrid@1.22 £5.00 £6.04
187 Espanyol v Betis £6.00 £3 Lay,Espanyol@2.04 £3 Betis@4.2 £6.00 £0.00 £919.01 £787.10 85.65% £168.09 £24.18
188 Porto v Malaga £4.00 £2 Lay,Porto@1.83 £2 Malaga@5.4 £4.00 £0.00
189 Arsenal v Bayern Munich £2.00 £2 Arsenal@4.1 £2.00 £0.00 £925.01 £787.10 85.09% £162.09 £24.18
190 AC Milan v Barcelona £16.13 £2 Lay,Barcelona@1.53 £2 AC Milan@7.6 £4.00 £20.13
191 Galatasaray v Schalke £0.42 £2.99 Lay,Galatasaray@2.16 £3 Schalke@3.85 £5.99 £5.57 £935.00 £812.80 86.93% £177.80 £25.03
By:
tobermory When: 23 Feb 13 03:21
Team Rating Team Rating
Man City 99.5 Stoke 85.5
Man United 99.5 Fulham 85.0
Chelsea 96.5 Sunderland 84.5
Tottenham 95.5 Norwich 84.5
Liverpool 94.0 West Ham 84.0
Arsenal 94.0 Wigan 83.5
Everton 92.0 Aston Villa 83.0
Newcastle 87.5 Southampton 82.5
Swansea 87.0 QPR 82.0
West Brom 86.0 Reading 82.0


Home Draw Away
2.45 Fulham 3.44 Stoke 3.43
1.39 Arsenal 5.65 Aston Villa 9.88
3.35 Norwich 3.60 Everton 2.60
8.18 QPR 5.2 Man United 1.46
2.50 Reading 3.55 Wigan 3.14
2.13 West Brom 3.60 Sunderland 3.92
1.94 Man City 3.82 Chelsea 4.51
1.75 Newcastle 4.1 Southampton 5.4
4.74 West Ham 3.87 Tottenham 1.88


Table on Page 1 used for Fulham,Wset Brom as they look pretty dull to me . Page 6 Table for the others
By:
tobermory When: 23 Feb 13 03:29
£2 Stoke@4
£5 Man United@1.63
£6 Newcastle@2.26
£4 Tottenham@2.28
By:
themover When: 23 Feb 13 03:54
don't really see any value in any of those Sad Stoke price about right, United bit short, Newcastle definitely short and Tottenham about right. That doesn't of course mean they won't all win Laugh gl
By:
tobermory When: 23 Feb 13 04:03
United are a fair bit bigger away to QPR than they were Away to Fulham

Expect the market anticipating weakened United team ? Maybe people are thinking they are playing Real Madrid midweek and forgetting there is 3 week gap between legs at this stage Confused

Surely can't still be overrating QPR
By:
Fruit Hat When: 23 Feb 13 07:49
Agree with Newcastle and Spurs and can see why you are different to the market which is emphasising the midweek game too much in my view. I would be interested in Fulham over Stoke though. Good luck.
By:
tobermory When: 23 Feb 13 14:58
£2 Sunderland@5.1
By:
tobermory When: 23 Feb 13 14:59
gl Fruit Hat Happy
By:
tobermory When: 23 Feb 13 17:21
Team Rating Team Rating
Barcelona 107.5 Rayo Vallecano 86.0
Real Madrid 104.0 Getafe 85.5
Athletico Madrid 97.5 Valladolid 85.0
Malaga 93.5 Osasuna 84.0
Valencia 92.5 Espanyol 83.5
Seville 89.5 Zaragoza 83.5
Real Sociedad 89.5 Celta Vigo 83.0
Athletic Bilbao 87.0 Mallorca 83.0
Betis 86.5 Granada 83.0
Levante 86.5 Deportivo La Coruna 82.0


Home Draw Away
16.3 Deportivo La Coruna 6.7 Real Madrid 1.27
1.16 Barcelona 9.4 Seville 32.7
2.16 Rayo Vallecano 3.68 Valladolid 3.76
2.29 Celta Vigo 3.63 Granada 3.47
1.27 Athletico Madrid 6.7 Espanyol 16.3
3.23 Betis 3.58 Malaga 2.43
1.99 Levante 3.77 Osasuna 4.31
By:
tobermory When: 23 Feb 13 17:32
£6 Real Madrid@1.44
£5 Barcelona@1.23
£2(liabilty) Lay, Rayo Vallecano@1.78 & £2 Valldolid@5.6
£2(liabilty) Lay,Celta Vigo@1.89 & £2 Granada@5
£5 Athletico Madrid@1.45
£3 Malaga@3.05
By:
tobermory When: 24 Feb 13 02:13
Team Rating Team Rating
Swansea 87.0 Bradford 66.0


using Page 1 Table


Home Draw Away
1.33 Swansea 5.95 Bradford 12.99


£4 Swansea@1.41
£6 (liabilty) Lay,Chelsea@3.9

neither bet matched as yet, nor in R Vallecano game
By:
tobermory When: 24 Feb 13 20:00
another £3 Malaga@3.4
By:
tobermory When: 24 Feb 13 20:00
ffs lol
By:
Charlton2005 When: 24 Feb 13 20:53
Tober, what odds did you have for Swans to win the trophy (i.e. not to win in 90 mins)
By:
tobermory When: 24 Feb 13 21:01
I'd say 1.16
By:
Charlton2005 When: 24 Feb 13 21:04
OK, thanks. WD today (I think you had two winners (matched or not!))
By:
lmfao When: 24 Feb 13 21:07
if you reverse all your bets- i'e' lay them

you have fallen on a super system

Hope this helps Cool
By:
tobermory When: 24 Feb 13 21:08
all the bets matched , yes ,won overall but Malaga had the most on , so poor end
By:
tobermory When: 26 Feb 13 01:13
Team Rating Team Rating
Barcelona 107.5 Everton 92.0
Real Madrid 104.0 Seville 89.5
Athletico Madrid 97.5 Middlesbrough 80.0
Chelsea 96.0 Oldham 69.0


Home Draw Away
1.88 Barcelona 3.87 Real Madrid 4.74
3.47 Seville 3.63 Athletico Madrid 2.29


Home Draw Away
1.08 Everton 18 Oldham 61
7.06 Middlesbrough 4.75 Chelsea 1.54



£3 (liablity) Lay, Barcelona@1.69 (may not get matched)
£5 Athletico Madrid@3.15
£6 Everton@1.18
£2(liablity)Lay, Chelsea@1.42 & £2 Middlesbrough@9

Th table on page 6 used here needs to be revised as does not make sense for the shorter odds , but can't see how Everton could be bigger than 1.15 at all and won't field weakened team IMO
By:
kenilworth When: 26 Feb 13 09:37
tobermory, this thread is now quite long running so should be
reliable by now. Are you not questioning your methods?
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