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Computer Based 1+ Goals Betting Mk 2
Computer Based 1+ Goals Betting Mk 2
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Replies: 1,126
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Auxerre game had a good goals prediction of 3.5 goals but the % chance of 0-0 at 6.7% was too high. Filter D was also not satisfied. Still expect at least one goal but with insufficient confidence to bet on it. Good luck!
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I agree with the principal of some cut-off point wrt %age of 0-0 and Ave Ranking, but i've decided to start afresh, with a new set of stats starting from today. I'm only looking at the top divisions just now, primarily as i dont have the time out here to analyse more leagues than that.
Once im back i'll look into the lower divisions no doubt, and create a similar 4 tier approach for Filter A. Also going to repeat my analysis of Predictions of >2.75, >3, >3.5 and the outcomes of these games with a view of something similar for over 1.5 goals. I meant to ask how you came up with your figures for predicting home, draw or away results?? |
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quick question, if i dont think a game will have say 3.5 goals, which do i lay, the under 3.5 or over 3.5..just joined this site normally bet at william hill so all new to me this laying
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lay the over
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i thought id done that, but my loss kept increasing as it stayed 0-0
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are the blue boxes to back and pink to lay ?
there is a game atm 0ver 3.5 goals 9.2 back (blue) and 55 lay (pink) im confused |
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the score is 0-0
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Pink to lay.
People chancing it by offering to back at 55 (for you to lay), in the hope of getting some mug cash. |
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Flash1966
Why not look at laying 4+ goals - currently at 92!! |
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so if 5 goals came in i would have to pay 92/1 but if not i win my stake??? is that right
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Only 2 qualifiers for Tuesday:
Ipswich v Birmingham (4.3 goals / 3.2% 0-0 chance) Peterboro v Southampton (3.6 goals / 4.8% 0-0 chance) |
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Your other option i guess (depending on your stakes) would be to offer a price and back under 3.5, backers are currently offering 1.13 on it just now..
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I wouldn't lay at those odds. Exposure too large.
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but why was my loss (in red) going up when i layed a game over 3.5 goals and it was 0-0..thats whats confusing me
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Laying 4 + would mean if less than 4 are score you'd win your stake.
If 4 or more are scored you'd pay out at 91/1!!! Like i said, you could probably make more by backing the smaller odds on unders, but again it all depends on your willingness to accept risk.. |
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it shows your potential loss or win. In your case, if you're trying to lay over 3.5, the loss would show on that line. If the game finishes over 3.5 then thats what you'd lose.
The green numbers next to under 3.5 is you stake and what you would win less commission if the game ended under 3.5 |
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it shows your potential loss or win. In your case, if you're trying to lay over 3.5, the loss would show on that line. If the game finishes over 3.5 then thats what you'd lose.
The green numbers next to under 3.5 is you stake and what you would win less commission if the game ended under 3.5 |
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Flash1966 15 Apr 12 19:34
but why was my loss (in red) going up when i layed a game over 3.5 goals and it was 0-0..thats whats confusing me Me too. Check your bets maybe to see what you really did. |
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Fixtures 15 April / Gimnastic v Alcorcon / Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Under 3.5 Goals Lay 19397531063 15-Apr-12 18:48 1.28 2.00 1.28 15-Apr-12 18:48 |
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and the fiqures in red were going up -7,8,9, etc
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i think i see it
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i should have layed over 3.5 i've layed under havent i
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Yes.
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You laid under 3.5 goals instead of over. i.e. you were betting against less than 3.5 goals.
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lol
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lucky i took a quick loss
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yep you've laid the wrong one
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Probably won't make same mistake again now.
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i bet i do
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please say im right on this one, backed over 2.5 goals
Fixtures 15 April / River Plate (Uru) v Cerro / Over/Under 2.5 goals Over 2.5 Goals Back 19:29 1.83 2.00 1.83 15-Apr-12 19:29 |
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0.47p green..
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that ones ok
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yay, go me!!!
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next questions will be when to lay to make a profit whatever the score
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For example, you might back 1.5+ goals, and then if there's a relatively early goal, chances are you can then lay 1.5+ goals at a lower price than you backed it, to lock in a small profit.
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lay over 2.5 is at 1.47 i was over at 1.83..so i would just lay £2 at 1.47 to profit whatever?
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you'd need to lay above your back stake to guarantee a green return, play with the figures without committing to it, or use the cash out function on the market you're playing
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Use this calc
http://www.chromaweb.com/bets/calculator/index.php |
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So if i use the cash out does that mean i win that amount no matter, or just if it goes over 2.5 and get money back for under 2.5
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