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how many people trading compared to those just betting, and .....
how many people trading compared to those just betting, and .....
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Replies: 247
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best thread on here for many a day..keep it going lads
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you can sometimes steal a few ticks during a long stoppage ie a serious injury, by laying the current score. not everyone has pics and just trade the clock
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Test match cricket is great for trading. Take a look at the price graph on the draw after 3 days of any big test match. It's very rare that you'll see a one way line either up or down. There's lot's of fluctuations, which means lot's of opportunities to green out.
I generally lay the draw at the start of the match, then plant pegs & mines when the match is in-play. So if I've layed the draw at 3.4, I'll put in a few back bets of 3.6 - 3.8 - 4.0 etc. I'll place some lay bets of 3.0 - 2.8 - 2.6 etc. The ticks go up & down very quickly depending on runs scored, or wickets falling. I've made a pretty healthy profit over the past 18 months doing this system. Word of advice though. Check the 5 day weather forecast for the area the match is being played. It goes without saying, that if heavy rain is expected over the course of the 5 days of the game, then I'd urge caution about laying the draw. |
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morning jedeye
i actually finished yesterday net bank gain of +2.48% but i did work hard for that, roughly 40- 50 trades, ie open and close being one trade. activity per match, dependant upon what the market offers, there are no golden rules on that, but there were a couple of games last night that had 3 or 4 trades on, one of them opened at 1.09 closed 1.06 next trade same market opened 1.06 out at 1.03, and then a 1.02 out at 1.01 soo it really is about watching the screen to see what money is available about in the market ie the 5.5 and 4.5 goal market. and then again about the discipline that you have set yourself. as there are a number of threads on here where people set a challenge i e £xx pounds per day, or xx goals per game all in. then you monitor it and see that some of the bets placed fall outside the guidelines. one chap did say on here that he may have placed the bet for the sake of betting. martin |
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davex
i sometimes take a prematch position, but it can tie up your money for a whole period of time, therefore not allowing you to use money elsewhere during active matches. i only work in the football markets, i have read elsewhere where people say to stay in the market that you know, ie some people purely trade tennis, others horseracing, i have no interest really in etiher of those, so whilst i dont support any particular football club, i support the game as a neutral. and therefore trading in football, whilst it is work, is enjoyable. so i tend to look at the goals market, and most usually the unders market, 3 goals away from the current score, depending on time of match etc. the match odds market offers a few points, but again i look for a safety cushion of 2 goals, ie 2-0, a match at 1-0 can easily go the wrong way in the time that you are waiting for the points move, not worth the risk martin |
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I'm a dirty aber so I only trade if something goes wrong,what I have noticed though is that if u/o odds have moved a lot before kick off they will continue to do so in play.
I suggest these matches are better for quick trades on u/o. |
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Thanks for the reply Martin. 40 -50 trades? so quite a lot really. I noticed you close the trades at 1-3 ticks, so you ever go higher than this, Do you have a set number? Also what stakes are you typically trading with? With a large bank you could be in and out in 1-2 ticks with quite a big profit but that would be more risky, obviously. I've been looking at market movements and studying which market to jump into but before i start i want to gain as much knowledge as possible etc. Thanks
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hi martin,
[i]"one chap did say on here that he may have placed the bet for the sake of betting. martin["/i] That was me haha. Loving this thread. i was doing abit of trading a couple of months ago but hit a goal or two in a game which ended up wiping me out. im looking to get back into it once i have built a sizeable sum to start with. and also i decent pc setup to work with, as mine at the moment is currently abit slow for a decent go at trading i feel. This thread is very interesting to read. With some excellent input from everyone. Nice one. All the best. |
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jedeye
id rather not give out stake levels on here at the moment, the principle is the same for whatever stake or bank you have, but i have started out small, my net bank increase since sunday is 250%. i tend to split the bank into 3 so i have a maximum of three open positions at any one time, i hope to increase that, as i beef up my trading kit,ie another screen. i dont have a set number but 3 ticks is usually the max. anymore than that and the GREED element starts to take hold, and risk rises, because of the increased time of an open/exposed position. i can turn over 10 or 20 times the bank, it gets easier to trade, what must be remembered is that you need to look at this in a very wok like manner as opposed to a leisure bet. martin |
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tez
we all get hit by a goal, or red card, both having an effect on odds, the trick being to trade out for a small red position, move back to the next market, ie i you were in at u3.5g, and a goal went in,, then i will take a look at u3.5g market, WOM etc, to see what i can limit myself to, and at the same time , i will step back to the 4.5g market, as that may have came back into play, so a few points to be gained there, against a red in the 3.5g market, should sort out any shortfall. martin |
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i can turn over 10 or 20 times the bank, it gets easier to trade, what must be remembered is that you need to look at this in a very wok like manner as opposed to a leisure bet.
put everything into the mix you mean  |
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or even a work like manner,
i'll give you that well read. martin |
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Questions-
At what point does it become a challenge to get money matched? I.e in under 5.5 markets in non prem games. Also, does anyone bet on correct score in injury time when it is 1.02/1.03 waiting for the whistle? I've been getting joy from that but I'm wondering if it's just a streak. Not revealing stakes but have increased bank 12fold in 6 weeks. Thanks in advance |
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mr fishfingers
good results, well done im using 6.5 5.5 4.5 and sometimes 3.5 depending on time and goal numbers. and with all in play matches, that i can get back data on, the matching of stakes, especially the close out orders is a decision that you have to take by looking at what is previously matched, and what is queued up to be matched. martin |
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.03 per min at the end they reckon.
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Hi Martin - Call me a wuss (waits for it..) but I mostly trade the under 5.5/6.6 market. I am only ever looking for, between 1-3 ticks and I trade out. job done!. I use a big bank mostly and used on a regular basis earns me a nice little profit. MUCH more than I ever won consistently when straight betting. I only do the occasional straight back/lay bet now for fun.
The beauty (for me anyways) of trading the under 5.5/6.6 market is that safety aspect. Even if an early goal crops up there is still plently of time to trade out. Thats my take on it  |
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gawdalmighty,
exactly the way to do it, steady and careful that is the way to do it. bank increase for me so far today is 8.49% and quite a bit ahead to go this evening. ive got goals that will be achieved over a period of time. like you say i think you go through a whole learning curve, of system betting, on home wins, or over 2.5 goals, with differing staking plans, and dont get the consistency. at least with trading, you can adjust positions if required therefore protecting the stake. infact trading requires more attention, so i find it more interesting really. martin |
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@ Martin. Oh its definitely a learning curve and I think everyone goes through that same journey when they discover trading/betfair etc. All looking for that perfect strategy or system, everyone learns at different rates but in the end we all end up the same, realising there IS NO wonderful golden goose. However, for me, trading, 1-3 ticks has been a revelation, a big bank is needed (for me anyway) and LOTS of discipline. Makes watching the games even more exciting too!
Good thread btw Martin |
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gawdalmighty
this sideline works quite well for me as i am self employed, and work from home 2 afternoons a week, so combined with my self employed, and what i want to get from this should be ok. i agree there isnt a golden goose it has to be worked for, work hard reap the rewards martin |
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Martin,
Something caught my attention, and I do not quite get it. Yesterday, you said that you lost 18% of your bank on one single bad trade, but then you made it back by trading all night and you ended up with a 1.84% profit. If your bank is 1000 and you lost 180, how on earth did you make 181.84 by trading 2 or 3 ticks??? Surely you was using high stakes?? Which means risking a lot (if not your entire bank) if you get caught by another bad trade?? Thanks. |
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hi trader
i managed it because im going in and out quickly, i totally agree with your comments, yes there is an element of risk, but that is why i watch the screen as it happens, so i can get out if needed. ive had a couple of games go bad this afternoon, so my early gains today have been taken out, but i should come about even for the day we will see when i finish later. but, as long as you have more profit than loss then you are still up at the end of month. and i base my calculations on 20 trading days per month, so i do have slack in there if i need it. martin |
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Thanks Martin, I understand, but I insist, not having a go, just curious, to make back that much in 1 day you risked a lot on every trade.
If not, then just go for it everyday, 18% is quite a lot. |
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hi trader
i understand your point and this thread has been very interesting to hear other points of view and tips. as it is i have taken an overall bank reduction today. i think due to a brief period this evening where my attention was pulled away from the games and i lost control. so there is another lesson, dont loose focus, and dont leave an unminded open position. so have a trading period and then a break martin |
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if trading is your main area tomorrows early match will bear fruit for you .
crazy swings |
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wait until a goal goes in (if there is one of course )
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martin i think you can be more efficient with the way you work, as you gave examples of some of your trades, cant remember exact figures but it went something like this, backing at 1.09 laying at 1.07, backing at 1.06 laying at 1.04, backing at 1.03 laying at 1.01 etc.. fair enough on different markets but on the same market there is really no need for the lays in between, i know you may say you dont like your money being on the line for long periods of time but if you take your money out and then put it straight back in again then your money is going to be exposed for exactly the same amount of time but your losing 1% with every trade by laying to back it again. when i trade i work at a 5% profit margin and i greened both sides so was generally gaining around 0.09 a trade and was only in the markets from 5-10 minutes, obviously with lower odds it takes longer to go down but i didnt need as many ticks because i could green up more efficiently at low odds. just something to think about.... keep up the good work
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yes quin
point taken, there is some tweaking to be done, martin |
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yes quin
point taken, there is some tweaking to be done, martin |
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hi all,
just thought i'd come back in on this... not had a very good week at all trying this... started off doing a few on the first day and made some good returns, about 20% from 5/6 trades but then it all went very wrong. first one was the rennes match, put in u4.5 at 2-0 at 67 mins. was 3-2 by 75 mins so went pop. second one, almost the same - put in u2.5 at 15 mins and 2-1 after 28mins, third one put in u2.5 at ko and goal scored in first min leading to big red. really don't know what i'm doing wrong. not spending enough time looking at stats? getting unlucky? being too close to the goals? i thought 3 goals would be far enough away to trade but by my record of a dozen or goes has lead to big losses. btw, i've only been in these markets literally two mins each time so haven't been being gready :( still want to try and carry on though but am thinking perhaps u5.5 or 6.5 is a better shout? don't know what the usual prices are but guess u5.5 is about 1.07? Can anyone give me the idea of drop in this price usually? (take wigan bolton tomorrow as an example) are we looking at 1.05 inside 10 mins? i'm only aiming for 2-3 ticks each trade but can't even seem to get that at the moment. any help/advice would be appreciated |
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either youve been very unlucky there or just poor game selection, couldnt tell you as i dont know much about the games you were on, does sound incredibly unlucky considering your only after 2-3 ticks though as your looking at only being in the market for 2 or 3 minutes with that sort of price fall. maybe look at the time that you were starting the trade off, for me i would never back pre game because of what happened to you a goal can go in in the first minute and also you dont really know what kind of game your getting yourself into, e.g. liverpool v spurs, pregame you would have probably thought goals but just by watching it develop you could tell that they were going to be hard to come by and so they were and then theres other games where you might not be expecting goals but then one goes in and everything changes, as they say goals change games. the thing with the higher markets like 5.5 and 6.5 is that although you are safer in the fact there has to be more goals so your safer in betting terms of it being a winning bet overall but for trading the odds move alot slower so your stake is exposed for longer. as i have said in previous posts when starting up you should always use low stakes because it isnt about the money at the start its about getting your head around it all and setting up a system that works, you need to become a master of making %s, once you are there you can increase stakes to make more money.
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morning quin
took onboard your comments last night, so looked at the ausi game this morning 4 points in 9 minutes greened both sides job done, therefore achieving a better point rate. as i watch the positions if a move against me then i can deal with it appropriately. So i think the maximum tick i will look for will be 4 points, it also means that i have to go into the market a little earlier, but the point movement/minute seems to be slightly faster than when the odds are at the bottom end of the scale. and by doing the same research you can still make the informed choices martin |
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aheadington
the rennes match, was always going to have goals, based on the previous scores. you also mention going in to an u2.5 at 15 mins, i would suggest that is far too early, and would have gone as far up the scale as possible at 4.5 or 5.5 markets. martin |
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aheadington
10 Feb 12 23:52 Joined: 02 Aug 10 Dont beat yourself up, the rest are talking sh1t. 18% increase in bank today etc, one of the giveaways (style over substance) add on hes only been doing it for the last few weeks theres not much to learn from him or the others. Still a harmless thread for the excited new starters. |
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if u just stated this, ty to lean from ur mistakes as they will surely come. that said i dont think trading is as simple as backing high and laying low by getting in and out of the market quickly( most odds ae setup assuming the expectancy of a goal in a range of time). ur recent wins maybe purely due to luck and u dont have enough sample to prove urself a winner.
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hi there
ive been football beting in different formats for 3 seasons, so im not entirely new to this. i came on here to have a sensible conversation with others, of which the majority has been useful. i am not looking for a short term plan, i am looking at this in a serious manner, as a useful spare income for the medium term. there are far too many people on the net, and around the world looking to sell a system that picks winners all day evey day, and how they have made millions, and no they have decided to share their secret for £49, absolute TOSH. so thank you for your input, all points noted in a constructive manner. martin |
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hi guys good thread this. i'm only 20 but since 1st january i started trading and love it. i have an apprenticeship making parts for aeroplanes but its pretty relaxed leaving me able to have time to go through markets looking for trades. been on here since i was 18 and made a loss overall but since turn of year things have been looking up now i'm trading.
i have been trading slightly differently but these are sum of the bets i,ve been on this week.when the odds for premier league matches come out i go through each game deciding whether theres chance to trade.i was on here monday night and i started watching the liverpool vs tottenham match odds and over/under 2.5 a couple of hours before game. each trade is with 1k and similar to you martin i prefer to get out quickly gaining a few ticks. i backed under 2.5 at 2.08 in the liverpool tottenham game with 1k went downstairs for my tea came back 20 min later and price was 1.95 which i couldn't believe.so i got out with a profit. then liverpool went to 1.92 right on kickoff which i couldn't resist to lay and backed at 1.99 after 18 min in play which isn't great but liverpool's price just refused to drift. then guys i was looking round and bumped into sheff wed vs blackpool match odds. sheff wed were 2.58 and blackpool 2.92. the first thing i thought is that they should be other way round. i decided to lay sheff wed at 2.58 with 1k and left it to match overnight. by 1 o clock on tuesday afternoon sheff wed were 2.7 but instead of cashing out i had a feeling they would continue to drift up to kick off. 5 min before kick off i backed sheff wed at 2.98 and they even went as high as 3.1. this left me looking like this. sheff wed +£135 blackpool +£135 the draw +£135 looking now though i think i could of traded it a lot better leaving more green on blackpool as they won easy but interesting stuff though anyway. maybe pre game trading is the way forward but you need patience. if your getting on prices early doors with a decent wedge ur guna have an advantage over people who are lumping on bad prices at kick off  |
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SMITHY
well done, as like you i have been on betfair for a about three years. quinn and others have provided good input this week, but i think i have decided today to stick to the 1,2, and 3 tick movements and lock in profit, also trades invariably happen in the second half of a game. being saturday i got into a few early open positions and got caught napping. so ive had to work hard again this evening. learnt a whole lot this week, some of it has helped martin |
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good stuff smithy that input will be a great help to many..keep this thread going its a belter and no idiots as yet
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I still don't get trading. I know what it is but how when do you do it? ie I back u2.5 goals at 1.9. When do I trade to make a profit?
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evening sweetchildofmine
i agree i have benefited from the input, and the questions then make you think about how you trade, but each person has to be happy and content with how you trade. it all helps martin |