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how many people trading compared to those just betting, and .....
how many people trading compared to those just betting, and .....
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a question
does anybody use Bet market trader, by betgrail, what interests me is the resubmit feature for football games after market suspended. any comments martin |
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so,
real madrid go a goal up, and the stats and pundits say game over, i take a position on RM to win, and then green out across all three outcomes when ive got my points, i had the game on the monitor, and at 80 minutes closed out, i then did the same on the bologna match, even though they are 2 up and the others are a man down, but ive got my profit and job done. open positions are risky positions. martin |
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a net gain tonight of 19.89 points,
bank is now at 6.8 times the opening balance on feb 3rd. took a position in the kettering match, so had a relatively easy evening, had to do other work so couldnt spend the time i wanted to trading, but achieved the required points. martin |
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martin do you put your entire balance at risk during a trade? when i say risk..obviously you wouldnt lose it all if it turned against you but would take a small red, however if you are risking a large ammount in play be very carefull in case betfair lost the live feed as this would cause a suspend, and seriously put your bank at risk
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sweetchildofmine,
good point about the feed, duly noted. i divide my total bank by 3, put 2/3rds in reserve and then by 3 again, so that i have a maximum of three open positions. lets not fool ourselves here, like a whole load of thinks in life, you do need an element of luck, or more you dont need to be unlucky. this is why i only go for a couple of ticks per trade. yes you are right if a match goes against i will red out, and then have to work another match to zero it, never try to chase in the same match, pointless. martin |
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very interesting. what, in your view makes a trade better than a normal bet? and how to you spot a good one?
if the market is correct then a trade should just be like a normal bet just higher stake, lower risk and you're only in the market for a short time. |
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hi guys pre off trades so far this week:
brentford vs carlisle layed brentford @2.1 backed @2.2 napoli vs chelsea layed napoli @2.3 backed @2.3 looked dangerous early doors so traded out. blackpool vs west ham layed blackpool @2.58 and topped up again @2.44 right on kickoff. backed at 2.7 trading goin well  |
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well played smithy91. it's my view that how you deal with losses is key to being a good better/trader.
would have you redded out or waited a bit when chelsea scored first last night (saying you didn't trade out early)? cheers |
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@goergegeorge nice one mate. i would of traded out immediately after chelsea's goal and had a green book. decided to trade out with no profit as napoli looked dangerous early on.
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a very simplistic way to look at the difference between a bet and a trade.
a bet- you place the bet hoping for a definitive outcome, a trade - you place a bet and then close out the trade at a pint you decide, either to take a profit, a scratch, or a loss position. you also have the opportunity to take a profit across all outcomes, therefore the result at the end of the event is of no interest. martin |
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cheers martin, well put. good luck with your approach!
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i dont profess to be the best, or even near the best,butone way i look at this is, if im going to sit in front of a pc for a couple of hours every evening, then i might aswell make something for doing that.
i have an interest in trading, years and years ago i did a bit of options buying and selling, i also have a mindset for profit, and always have had, so from that point of view those elements are sorted. now its about how to achieve that. martin |
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so
man city porto, at 1-0 i take a position on man city at 1.28 back, i watch the game, not convinced, so i then come out of that for a 1 tick loss, (covered on other games) i then take a position at 1-0 on under 3.5 goals, then 2-0 so i trade out, red on u3.5, green zero over 3.5 goal 3, and the goal 4 do in so no loss on that position. so after that lot has sorted itself out UP 0.65 point so far. martin |
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martin
what you are doing is actually gambling. having an open position when a match starts is GAMBLING. otherwise id call myself a trader. i know im not. |
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+5.9 points this evening, so far, so only 4 points to go, to the magic 10 points, with plenty of opportunities.
martin |
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Why do you think you are trading rather than placing thousands of individual bets? Your pot will run dry but it will just be a slow death rather than a quick one!! For example if you were 'trading' the over/under 2.5 in the Man City game earlier having backed unders with a view to getting out after 2/3/4/5/ ticks, what do you do after 17 seconds when a goal has already gone in? Trade out to guarantee a 50% loss? Wait till you can trade out for a 25% loss? What happens if another goal goes in straight away? What do you do then? I know I am using the over/under 2.5 as an example but the same applies for over/under 3.5/4.5/5.5/6.5!! You are not trading just gambling!!
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redferrari
i never take a 2.5g position at KO, i only ever look at taking a position in the goal market usually half time at the earliest, it will then be the highest market available at that time, ie if 0-0 i will only look to go in at 4.5 or 3.5 goals, very rare to take a 1.5 or 2.5g with regards to a slow death, i will take your point aboard, however my bank is now at 7 times the opening balance for 19 days work. i took a red out position on another game this evening, but i am still at 4 points up for the evening, and bank at 7 times. martin |
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I can't see what your edge is? Just because you are giving yourself a few goals buffer does not make it any safer!! The prices just move slower the further you are away from the current number of goals, whatever that market is. What are your rules on 'redding' out how much of the bet are you prepared to guarantee to lose? Does that change? What calculations have you done to asertain whether this will be profitable over the long term? How many guaranteed losses have you catered for on the trot so that you don't lose the lot? These are all things you need to know now. I admire what you are doing but there are lots of people who have gone skint by 'trading' trust me!!
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my exposure per position is a maximum of 11% of the bank value.
i had a red out position this evening, that was 8% of stake. a fortnight ago i changed what i did after taking advice off here, i lost on two consecutive days, that then set me back 3 days, however i am back on track because im taking less riskier positions and looking for less movement. as i have said before, anything you do, whether it be buying shares, trading currency or playing the betfair markets, contains risk, and therefore a gamble. if i get wiped out, im big enough to put my hands up and say so. martin |
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ok,
so ive finished this evening +7.4 points, that is an average of 20.7 points per day from last Saturday, which is 33 points ahead of target. so im a happy person. martin |
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best of luck.....you ain't a trader tho....you are a punter....don't try and make yourself something you aren't
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so traders dont gamble at all then? they just wallow in a risk free pool
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Definition of trading
To buy and sell (stock, for example). To trade something in for something else of lower value or price Definition of gambling An act or undertaking of uncertain outcome; a risk: I took a gamble that stock prices would rise. To put up as a stake in gambling; wager. To play a game of chance for stakes. I believe what martin is doing falls more into the definition of trading than gambling. There is no uncertain outcome or chance in what he is doing. Trading is a kind of gambling, as with everything there is risk but I believe it is trading if the risk is controllable. Everything in his trade is expected and definite. If you bet on over 2.5 goals then you can not be sure a goal will be scored. If you bet on under 6.5 goals you KNOW the odds will drop slowly as money is matched. You KNOW that if a goal comes the odds will rise by x amount. Therefore you are buying a stock at 1.05 and selling it for 1.04 that is not a gamble, it is a trade. If the market moves against you (as it regularly does for traders in any sort of trade) then you take a loss due to you making a bad trade. Gamblers do not try to win 1% of their stake with 10% of their bank. |
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loaded nails it in one
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If he doesn't trade out as soon as the first goal comes then it becomes a gamble.
Cheers sweetchild, I do try  |
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these people dont know what there talking about
 so when you trade on the forex you KNOW FOR SURE which way the value of each currency will go? of course you dont you make a valued assesment and then act upon it. sports betting especially on the goals markets is actually less of a gamble then trading on the stock markets of forex because you do actually KNOW what way the odds will move over time, you then have to assess if you have enough time to make the trade. just because there is risk does not mean it is gambling, when you TRADE your full stake is not at risk because you TRADE out for a red if the market moves against you, just as you would on the stock market or forex with stop losses. |
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loaded beat me to it haha
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well that seemed a bit heated, didnt it, the great thing about forums, and the human race in general is that everybody has an opinion, and that opinion is different to that of others.
ALSO, eveybody assessing risk in a different way, a mountain climber, with knowledge and experience assesses risk in a different way to that of a novice climber. i will carry on doing what I am doing, whether it be trading/gambling. i know of only 2 professional gamblers, one backs horses, one plays casinos, i have another colleague who has a circle of at least 10 betfair traders, if i was a £1 behind those traders i would be a happy man. and they do make a good living from it. the fact is though that each individual needs to learn how to do it. and that is what I am doing. have a great day martin |
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Yes this is exactly what forums are about.
So talk me through your trading on the Man Utd v Ajax game tonight. Where you going to start? Backing under 5.5 @ 1.07? |
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With a view to getting out at 1.05?
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i think for today back valenthia , lay mantsester and trade out before kick off
whats your opinion; |
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Think Man/Utd will be Biggar than 1.45 come 18.00 hrs
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redferrari
i cant tell you what i will do, there are i think 8 games going off at 8pm, it all depends what happens in the game, i wont take a position in it until half time at the earliest, and then it depends on the score, some pundit sites have it at 2-0 and 3-0, if it were to go 2-0 then i might take a win position for a couple of points, and then look to see what money is in the goals market. however i expect there will be a lot of money in the markets queued up, so i may not even go into it. martin |
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So there is no strategy from the outset? I thought you knew which way the prices would move?
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redferrari
i mean there arent chosen matches, i look at all matches through an evening, and depending on stats and what is happening in a game, will dictate if a position is to be taken. ie 2 goal lead may take a position in the match odds market lack of goals as time moves on, then a position in the goals market. as i only take 3 positions as a maximum then if the funds are available and the conditions right a position may be opened. martin |
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Martin what do I do in the Arsenal v Spurs game?
I backed under 5.5 @ 1.08 with a view to trade out @ 1.05, after the 1sr goal the price was 1.15, 2nd goal 1.19, 3 rd goal 1.38 and 4th goal 2.10 and currently 1.85. Can't see how you are not gambling to be honest, another 2 goals and I'm gone!! |
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Theres the 5th goal! Under 5.5 now 4.6 to lay!!!
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Oh dear Martin, betting bank gone, 4-2! 6 goals and Spurs were winning 2-0 at 1 point, hope you haven't done your brains in as well!
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And theres the 7th goal!!
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Why did you have your entire bank on one game?
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