Football
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
These 8966 comments are related to the topic:
How much has everyone won/lost gone again
How much has everyone won/lost gone again
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 8,966
|
By:
right ok i will Rob. awesome stuff. will do it without looking at the real ones
|
|
By:
Bob - can you honestly say in all your time on the forum you've never once seen a thread or got an idea and thought "i might try that"
Today - Backing Federer, Williams, Azarenka, Limerick, Cordoba, unders at Stevenage, laying Sheff Utd and last night backing UDC and goals and over 3.5 in Sao Paulo (backed at ht when it was 2-1). |
|
By:
and lost on Pohang and Djokovic
Why are there 2 win/loss threads running side by side? |
|
By:
one was supposed to be a "bob free" thread
|
|
By:
Pistachio's rather childish idea. hey ho
yeah i backed azarenka and williams too but lost heavy on Bilbao, raonic, woz and makarova last 2 days  |
|
By:
Simonm11 : My question would be how can i stop myself from getting greedy and doing silly bets...
Do the silly bets enough times and you eventually will learn from your mistakes, the same as anything in life really, then it's down to you to apply what you've learnt. For example, my hobby is driving and I see lots of terrible overtaking manoeuvres on the roads by young inexperienced drivers who give it a boot full and think it's safe simply because there's nothing coming the other way, but are completely oblivious to the junctions, drive ways, lay bys, field entrances etc that something could pull out from and into their path. When they've had a few near misses they should learn from them, if they don't learn they'll crash and burn, as is often the case. |
|
By:
Paul, stating the obvious, but don't forget even if you manage to get matched on the F1 at 8.0 for a 6.0 shot, that's a fantastic 33% value before comm, but you still only have an approximate 17% chance of winning that individual bet, hence staking is just as important as finding the value.
|
|
By:
Fútbol: -USD467.57 G-P total: -USD467.57 Fútbol Mostrar 1 - 6 de 6 mercados Mercado Hora de inicio Última fecha establecida Ganancia/pérdida ($) Fútbol / Once Caldas v La Equidad : Marcador final 11-may-12 20:00 11-may-12 22:05 -282,19 Fútbol / Universitario v Union Comercio : Marcador final 11-may-12 19:30 11-may-12 21:22 0,00 Fútbol / Universitario v Union Comercio : Más/Menos de 3.5 goles 11-may-12 19:30 11-may-12 21:22 -250,00 Fútbol / Estudiantes - Godoy Cruz : Más/Menos de 1.5 goles 11-may-12 19:15 11-may-12 21:12 14,56 Fútbol / Huachipato v Union La Calera : Marcador final 11-may-12 19:00 11-may-12 20:49 46,12 Fútbol / Huachipato v Union La Calera : Más/Menos de 3.5 goles 11-may-12 19:00 11-may-12 20:49 3,94 |
|
By:
thanks Trev. you a tennis fan then Biscuit? didn't know that
|
|
By:
A month ago I lost my bank (for the millionth time) and chucked in another 100 and said this is it....lose this and I quit. Today I passed the 5 grand mark
 never had this much. Maybe I'm finally getting smarter with what I bet on. Have all but quit soccer betting and focused on what I know best AFL and Tennis, with the odd basketball and netball bets. Have lost so much on dodgy soccer bets...it's the hardest game to get a read on in my opinion. Usually I would go a soccer bet just coz it was there and there was no other bets available. I'm more picky now so if all there is is a bunch of indian soccer matches...I'll pass. We'll see how far I can keep going without losing it all. Have been up to 3 or 4 grand before and have lost it in a weekend. Next milestone I wanna reach is 10 grand. If I get to that then I've turned the corner. |
|
By:
Very smart Wooky. Restricting yourself to the few types of bets you know you're particularly good at is often the only way to really guarantee strong profits.
For the last year I've been profitable most months, but that profit's generally remained pretty modest. In March I looked through all my bets from the last year and realised that most of my profits were coming from just two angles. All of the other bets were far more hit and miss and were losing me cash overall. I've restricted myself to those two angles, and even though I'm actually spending much less time betting, the profit level has gone up enormously over the last six weeks. It seems counter-intuitive that you make more money by working less hard. But then, a lot about betting most definitely tends towards the counter-intuitive!! |
|
By:
yep "Less Is More"
 |
|
By:
catflaqpo
11 May 12 16:41 Joined: 11 Nov 11 | Topic/replies: 480 | Blogger: catflaqpo's blog I don't spot value I get value from the places I know it exists, like in the 1.01 laying thread. As contrarian says, all long term winners must be taking value bets although some of them deny it vehemently Rate reply: | report block user Take the set of 'most successful gamblers in the world', that have made more than £20M say; the vast majority of them will be lottery bettors who have bet with massive negative expectancy. So the moral is: don't underestimate the massive role that luck plays. |
|
By:
Luck ain't much of a factor in the long term, though, Cat! As you already know..
|
|
By:
Luck is the only requirement/role as far as lottery winners are concerned, and the amount of big winners is simply because the pool of recreational gamblers is so enormous in that activity. The pool of players as a whole lose tens of millions every week of course. But it's gambling in it's most mug form IMO, along with fruit machines/fobt's etc.
Luck plays a tiny role in long term professional gambling, I hesitate to say it plays no role at all because the odd long term winner will have been simply lucky. |
|
By:
luck has f all to do with my profit day to day, its knowledge and discipline
|
|
By:
Lottery winners are merely experiencing short term success with a very poor long term strategy
|
|
By:
Football: £202.88 | Ice Hockey: -£114.06 Total P&L: £88.82
Football Showing 1 - 20 of 131 markets Yesterday |
|
By:
Lottery winners are merely experiencing short term success with a very poor long term strategy
To be fair, winning £22million would grant a long period of failure @ £1 per week. |
|
By:
Indeed, you'd have to wait with considerable patience to see if you could make a long term success out of it.
 |
|
By:
Yesterday
Fútbol: USD29.51 G-P total: USD29.51 Fútbol Mostrar 1 - 18 de 18 mercados Mercado Hora de inicio Última fecha establecida Ganancia/pérdida ($) Fútbol / Chicago Fire - Kansas City : Marcador final 12-may-12 19:30 12-may-12 21:30 28,09 Fútbol / Union San Felipe v Palestino : Más/Menos de 1.5 goles 12-may-12 19:30 12-may-12 21:22 0,00 Fútbol / New England - Vancouver Whitecaps : Cuotas de partido 12-may-12 18:30 12-may-12 20:32 0,00 Fútbol / San Lorenzo - Olimpo : Marcador final 12-may-12 18:20 12-may-12 20:13 -228,70 Fútbol / San Lorenzo - Olimpo : Más/Menos de 1.5 goles 12-may-12 18:20 12-may-12 20:10 -21,00 Fútbol / New England - Vancouver Whitecaps : Marcador final 12-may-12 18:30 12-may-12 20:10 0,00 Fútbol / Deportivo Cali v Santa Fe : Cuotas de partido 12-may-12 18:10 12-may-12 20:08 0,00 Fútbol / Tacuary Asuncion v Guarani (Par) : Más/Menos de 2.5 goles 12-may-12 18:10 12-may-12 20:00 47,75 Fútbol / Juan Aurich v Sport Huancayo : Próximo gol 12-may-12 17:45 12-may-12 19:39 2,65 Fútbol / Juan Aurich v Sport Huancayo : Marcador final 12-may-12 17:45 12-may-12 19:38 2,14 Fútbol / Juan Aurich v Sport Huancayo : Más/Menos de 3.5 goles 12-may-12 17:45 12-may-12 19:38 0,31 Fútbol / Colo Colo v Antofagasta : Más/Menos de 1.5 goles 12-may-12 17:15 12-may-12 19:07 32,28 Fútbol / Colo Colo v Antofagasta : Marcador final 12-may-12 17:15 12-may-12 19:06 21,43 Fútbol / Colo Colo v Antofagasta : Próximo gol 12-may-12 17:15 12-may-12 19:06 2,38 Fútbol / Atl Tucuman v River Plate : Próximo gol 12-may-12 16:30 12-may-12 18:28 107,73 Fútbol / Atl Tucuman v River Plate : Marcador final 12-may-12 16:30 12-may-12 18:18 0,00 Fútbol / Libertad v Sol de America : Marcador final 12-may-12 16:00 12-may-12 17:48 0,70 Fútbol / Libertad v Sol de America : Más/Menos de 1.5 goles 12-may-12 16:00 12-may-12 17:48 33,75 |
|
By:
Yes, cat the old 'in the long run we're all dead' springs to mind, so it's really not necessarily short term success.
Trevh When: 13 May 12 02:09 [...] Luck plays a tiny role in long term professional gambling, I hesitate to say it plays no role at all because the odd long term winner will have been simply lucky. It really depends on what you are doing. If you are one of these guys that trades with a £2k bank and makes between £2k and £3k a month every month but are unable to scale, then yes, luck plays a vanishingly small role. However, if you are compounding over time it can make a colossal difference. Take two gamblers with the same profit expectancy, and provided there is enough volatility in their returns, one could end up making £10k in a year, and the other £100k. If these differences are compounded over time, it can easily mean that more than half of lifetime profit is the product of luck, or that you have made far less than your edge would suggest due to bad luck. I could lose 50% of my net worth in one day, it's extremely unlikely, but if it happens tomorrow, I will have been unlucky. Whether something like that does or doesn't happen (or happens once, twice, or more times), will make a huge difference to my net worth in a few years time not only because of the loss itself, but also because the lower risk I would take after a loss, lower staking meaning lower future profit etc. |
|
By:
I'd estimate the chance of losing in excess of 40% of my bank at about 1-4% for a given 12 month period. Even if that happened, I'd still be very likely to have a + year.
Chance of a losing month : 1 in 5 Chance of a losing quarter: 1 in 250 Chance of a losing year: 1 in 1000 See if you can make sense of 5,250,1000  |
|
By:
if you are losing 50% of your net worth in one day that's not unlucky, that's awful money management
|
|
By:
Actually chance of a losing quarter is probably a lot higher, maybe I should try to quantify these risks properly for risk control purposes. Although I've never had a losing quarter since 2007, I did get eerily close:
Quarter Profit Active Days Avg per day Q3-2010 £18.30 83 £0.22 :D :D |
|
By:
dlarssonf
Date Joined: 05 Mar 08 Add contact | Send message When: 13 May 12 13:11 Joined: Date Joined: 05 Mar 08 | Topic/replies: 6,062 | Blogger: dlarssonf's blog if you are losing 50% of your net worth in one day that's not unlucky, that's awful money management Well that may be true taking into account the psychological effects of such a loss, but from a purely mathematical point of view, losing 50% of bank in a day is 'fine'. I should add I've never lost even close to that much (about 20% max I think), but I am willing to run a minuscule risk of a loss close to that size (admittedly I would feel that 50%+ would be a failure because 50% is my cutoff point for what is acceptable, not just for a day but for total peak to trough drawdown), taking into account that volatility is encouraged by the PC. |
|
By:
I know what you're saying investor, but I don't think of it as lucky or unlucky, it's just expected variance to me. My largest drawdown was around 50% of the bank last year over a 2 week period, but I still made over 10 times the amount of the drawdown in net profit, so I don't see any good or bad luck involved long term.
I play in so many markets that luck cannot have an effect, but if you play in few markets then yes I can see that a few unlucky results will hurt, but then personally I would say that you were over staking to lose 30/40% of the bank in just a couple of matches. |
|
By:
Yeah Trevh, what I'm saying is that if your betting is the equivalent of of backing heads at evens with a 10% edge over 25,000 bets, luck will not be much of a factor.
If you are playing the same game with a 1% edge, luck (or variance) is more important especially when compounding profits with something like Kelly staking. My own idea is that as profit and bankroll grows, you need to take more and more marginal profits. So if someone says to me would you rather place £100 on an evens shot at 2.5 or £2,000 on an evens shot at 2.2, I would choose the latter. Combine smaller edges with compounding and it means that after a number of years the range of possible outcomes means that terminal wealth could be 1/2x, x, 2x, 5x etc. The massive potential differences in terminal wealth are what I mean when I say luck plays a role. |
|
By:
Fútbol: -USD9.29 G-P total: -USD9.29
Fútbol Mostrar 1 - 20 de 33 mercados Mercado Hora de inicio Última fecha establecida Ganancia/pérdida ($) Fútbol / Trofense - Aves : Más/Menos de 1.5 goles 13-may-12 11:00 13-may-12 12:57 10,40 Fútbol / Sandnes Ulf v Rosenborg : Más/Menos de 2.5 goles 13-may-12 11:00 13-may-12 12:50 35,81 Fútbol / AGF - Brondby : Más/menos de 6.5 goles 13-may-12 11:00 13-may-12 12:50 6,90 Fútbol / Real Garcilaso v Universidad San Martin : Más/Menos de 3.5 goles 13-may-12 11:00 13-may-12 12:49 0,35 Fútbol / Fredrikstad v Haugesund : Más/Menos de 0.5 goles 13-may-12 11:00 13-may-12 12:49 3,95 Fútbol / Elfsborg v AIK : Más/Menos de 1.5 goles 13-may-12 10:30 13-may-12 12:21 0,50 Fútbol / Elfsborg v AIK : Marcador final 13-may-12 10:30 13-may-12 12:21 10,38 Fútbol / Barclays Premier League : 4 primeros 2011/12 13-ago-11 09:00 13-may-12 11:32 10,92 Fútbol / Barclays Premier League : 3 primeros 2011/12 13-ago-11 09:00 13-may-12 11:31 60,34 Fútbol / Twente - Waalwijk : Más/Menos de 1.5 goles 13-may-12 09:30 13-may-12 11:27 47,75 Fútbol / Anzhi Makhachkala - Zenit St Petersburg : Marcador final 13-may-12 09:30 13-may-12 11:25 3,54 Fútbol / Anzhi Makhachkala - Zenit St Petersburg : Más/Menos de 2.5 goles 13-may-12 09:30 13-may-12 11:25 45,28 Fútbol / Rubin Kazan - CSKA Moscú : Más/Menos de 4.5 goles 13-may-12 09:30 13-may-12 11:21 66,71 Fútbol / Sunderland - Manchester Utd : Más/Menos de 1.5 goles 13-may-12 09:00 13-may-12 11:02 35,81 Fútbol / Manchester City - QPR : Más/Menos de 5.5 goles 13-may-12 09:00 13-may-12 10:58 28,65 Fútbol / Chelsea - Blackburn : Más/Menos de 3.5 goles 13-may-12 09:00 13-may-12 10:56 47,75 Fútbol / West Brom - Arsenal : Cuotas de partido 13-may-12 09:00 13-may-12 10:55 -51,28 Fútbol / Manchester City - QPR : Más/Menos de 4.5 goles 13-may-12 09:00 13-may-12 10:54 -250,00 Fútbol / SonderjyskE - FC Copenhague : Más/Menos de 4.5 goles 13-may-12 09:00 13-may-12 10:53 47,75 Fútbol / Tottenham - Fulham : Más/Menos de 2.5 goles 13-may-12 09:00 13-may-12 10:51 10,18 Páginas: 1 2 de2 Páginas |
|
By:
trades with a £2k bank and makes between £2k and £3k a month every month
how difficult is that? also Investor how can you work out the chance of a losing month/quarter? |
|
By:
*just working out how many losing months you've had out of how many months you'e gambled/recorded?
|
|
By:
you ignoring my thread bob?
you pester here for value perhaps you could answer my question as you pester others to answer yours? |
|
By:
Very poor last 7 days
 Well done all the winners. Horse Racing: -£99.78 | Soccer: -£15.50 Total P&L: -£115.28 Soccer Showing 1 - 20 of 69 markets Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£) Soccer / Real Madrid v Mallorca : Sending Off? 13-May-12 19:00 13-May-12 20:52 2.38 Soccer / Real Madrid v Mallorca : Over/Under 6.5 Goals 13-May-12 19:00 13-May-12 20:51 -1.00 Soccer / Real Madrid v Mallorca : Over/Under 7.5 Goals 13-May-12 19:00 13-May-12 20:50 2.85 Soccer / Real Madrid v Mallorca : Over/Under 8.5 Goals 13-May-12 19:00 13-May-12 20:50 0.00 Soccer / Real Madrid v Mallorca : Match Odds 13-May-12 19:00 13-May-12 20:49 3.80 Soccer / Real Madrid v Mallorca : Correct Score 13-May-12 19:00 13-May-12 20:15 -2.00 Soccer / Cesena v Roma : Match Odds 13-May-12 17:00 13-May-12 18:52 0.95 Soccer / Sunderland v Man Utd : Over/Under 6.5 Goals 13-May-12 15:00 13-May-12 17:02 1.90 Soccer / Man City v QPR : Over/Under 6.5 Goals 13-May-12 15:00 13-May-12 17:01 8.44 Soccer / Man City v QPR : Over/Under 7.5 Goals 13-May-12 15:00 13-May-12 17:01 1.90 Soccer / Man City v QPR : Over/Under 8.5 Goals 13-May-12 15:00 13-May-12 17:01 1.90 Soccer / Man City v QPR : Over/Under 5.5 Goals 13-May-12 15:00 13-May-12 16:58 0.00 Soccer / Man City v QPR : Match Odds 13-May-12 15:00 13-May-12 16:56 13.31 Soccer / Kyoto v Tokushima : Match Odds 13-May-12 08:00 13-May-12 09:55 1.90 Soccer / Tottori v Mito : Match Odds 13-May-12 08:00 13-May-12 09:52 0.95 Soccer / Kusatsu v Tochigi SC : Match Odds 13-May-12 05:00 13-May-12 06:57 0.95 Soccer / Betis v Barcelona : Correct Score 12-May-12 21:00 12-May-12 22:52 2.38 Soccer / Betis v Barcelona : Over/Under 8.5 Goals 12-May-12 21:00 12-May-12 22:51 1.90 Soccer / Betis v Barcelona : Over/Under 6.5 Goals 12-May-12 21:00 12-May-12 22:51 3.33 Soccer / Betis v Barcelona : Over/Under 5.5 Goals 12-May-12 21:00 12-May-12 22:51 1.90 Pages: 1 2 3 4 of 4 Pages Jump to page: Profit and Loss is shown net of commission. All times are UKT ? unless otherwise stated. |
|
By:
unlucky new born ,hope the new week is better for you .
|
|
By:
Cheers Coach......How was your week ?
|
|
By:
decent week for me newborn (in the end) - came good on the Manchester City game at the end ,but it was looking very shabby at 1-2 and 2-2 . Last 7 days Soccer: £2,057.44 Total P&L: £2,057.44
My position was something like this at 1-2 and with the odds at 1.34ish 1-2 (-1,800) 1.34 ? 2-2 (+ 110) 5.00 ? 3-2 (+1,700) 30.00 ? |
|
By:
i was over confident at half time or before HT that it wouldn't be 1-2 at any point in the match - how wrong can you be ?
|
|
By:
Excellent work Coach.....Will help towards your new car
|
|
By:
coach
  |
|
By:
wow Coach. couldnt believe it when QPR when ahead
|