How does one do what?
Get the bets on at the desired odds? That obviously depends on market liquidity and the spread between prices.
Think long term? If there is a bag with 1000 balls in it and 600 are red and 400 are blue and you're picking out red you'll end up with the most balls when the bag is empty/pick completed, during the pick there could well be a run where 30 blues are picked out consecutively though. Does that help you?

no give me a bottle of water and i can drink. if i can build a well i can provide for myself forever more...

cat - it's 5.4

Putting a £50 stake on Lotus to win would make you £209.   Spreading a £50 stake across Dimi and Grosjean would give you around £203 each.  So yeah, you'd be better off backing both the drivers. Cat's unerring judgement again...

finding value in-play.

Bob can you use a spreadsheet?

I ponder at this response?

Windows 3.1 bloody h@ll, but you know something, simple works!!!

I did try the latest flashiest VB incarnation, but it didn't really offer me a great deal more. And it was a lot more awkward to program, so I just went back to the old edition.  If it does the job, stick with it I say. The software's there to work for me, not the other way around..

exactly my thinking, newer versions complicate tried and tested systems and often offer little more, except taking up vast amounts of your time trying to figure out how to do what your already doing.

Bobbin/cat - what exactly do you use VBA for, betting-wise? can you give me an example please

Well, let's see..

I have a few calculators that perform various sequences of sums on prices - if you're betting inplay, you want to be able to see various permutations at the touch of a button.   

I can put my horse racing form into a format that suits me best of all, adding speed figures and various other numbers that I can't get anywhere else. If I wanted to generate all these figures myself, it would take me around 30 hours to do the tracks for one day!

With football I can take past data and do various tricks with it. For any game I can, for example, instantly see the past five results for each team, along with a quick figure that tells me how good each of those individual opponents were - in terms of attack, defense etc. I can quickly generate performance figures for any team in any division - we're all familiar with the teams in the Prem League, but once you start getting down to Div 2 and lower, it really helps to have detailed stats on them. I can generate a full league table for the last five games, ten games etc. That gives you far more information about current form and is a lot more helpful than just looking at the main table.

Those are just a few quick ideas. The fact is, if you can program then you can model and examine pretty much anything you can think of. It's brilliant for testing theories, since you can crunch the figures and see exactly how profitable a strategy is going to be. Your horizons are almost unlimited.

He could start quite basic and learn to use it with the SP and get a feeling for the correctish price at any given minute in a match. Then apply reverse mean averaging. That's how i started to learn the in-play prices and take advantage of variations. Being patient and trying to pick off the value I spotted.

What a bunch of mugs.  Someone wins £27 from a £2K outlay and you all go weak at the knees.

It's a 13/1 winner.  Big deal.  The same as £20 returning £270.

Just remember that before you're next easily impressed.

Not really Mr Angry.

Its a completely different kettle of fish. A single at 13/1 is completely different to 17 bets perming 12 horses in lucky's, Canadian's or Heinz's. Or say creating a tree bet for a coupon like goals galore consisting of 400-600 bets.

Ice - can you define the correctish price please

Mr Angry - why do you never post as The Betfairy and always come here with a quick angry and useless rant?

They worked hard at learning how to identify value prices and how to bet accordingly.

You aren't willing to put any effort into it and expect someone to tell you how to do it for nothing.  And before you say you are, you're not.  You've been given loads of advice on how to do it and ignore it all, instead preferring to chat about previous forum usernames.

My question would be how can i stop myself from getting greedy and doing silly bets. As i put money into betfair as my starting bank, i'm disciplined and diligent until i've withdrawn what i've put in. So this time round i put in £50, got up to £150 in 3 days then withdrew £50 and i did a silly bet on barcelona vs olympicas in basketball, barca are the best team in that league yet they lost by 4 points so i lost my whole bank as i tried to re-lay and grab more part way through if they had a comeback.

hmm well i've found this week that 2 or 3 bad losses can wipe out a couple of month's good bets/betting. not good

hmm people say that but not sure anyone would post or visit

oh massively Biscuit. had one of my bad weeks

nah what bets you won / lost this week Shane/Biscuit?

bob.vegas

ok so if we had a value thread about say the weekend EPL fixtures and all wrote our true prices would we get somewhere then?

Do it.

Put your write up first.  Then others will contribute. 

Pick what you think are the value plays and give some reasons why, then back accordingly.  See how you get on.  It's a good idea.