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How much has everyone won/lost gone again
How much has everyone won/lost gone again
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Rob - ok the value thing. would you say being able to judge value is what separates the men from the boys gambling-wise. i always imagined it to be like say, rolling your tongue. you can either do it or you can't. can it really be learnt?
Bob, I've been banging on at you about this for ages. Of course you can bloody learn value. How on earth would somebody be 'born' being able to tell value? You think Investor watched his first football match and thought 'Hmmm.. I think the home side has a 43% chance of winning, but the market tells me the chance is only 57%. I think I'll back it!'? Of course that isn't the case. Whether you're an in-play bettor watching match after match, making a decision as to whether you think there're going to be more goals, or whether you're a pre-offer who analyses stat after stat, you're going to need to hone your skills and learn how to spot value. Nobody is born with that. |
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A model is a mathematical representation of the sport. It will tell you how the probabilities change over time.
In tennis, for instance, you might start by assuming that the players win a point on their serve with a certain probability, p, and that each point is independent of every other. From this you can build up a simple model of how the match odds market should change according to the scoreline. |
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Actually, the 43% and 57% should be reversed in that example above! See, that Investor.. He knew so little at the beginning...
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can you find that post please Biscuit ?
ok Rob/Shane so is value spotting what you two, SCV, Investor, Cat et al all do? |
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bob.vegas
ok Rob/Shane so is value spotting what you two, SCV, Investor, Cat et al all do? I do. Fancy answering the other questions or are you going to ignore those as usual? |
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hmm but isn't valuing in itself, a gamble. as in who's to say you get it right?
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Bob, Biscuit was trying to get you to tell him exactly what you do on the Overs so that he could give you some clear advice. And you did wander off and start speaking to Hudson instead. It was incredibly rude.
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yes value
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no worries Rob, only too happy to...
Why did you always imagine this when you've been told for a year and a half that it can become an acquired skill? Did you just ignore everyone who told you that and assumed you knew better? Are you now seeing why most people think that trying to help you is a waste of time, given that you completely ignore any advice and then whinge on about Martingaling being all you know? 1. because it seems such a vague, subjective, error-prone acitivity 2. no i didn't think i knew better god no 3. i hope one day i'll make money on here i guess |
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Bob, if you're not getting value right then you'll be losing money over a reasonable sequence of bets. If you are getting right, you'll probably be in profit, even with level stakes. That's how you know.
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ok so if we had a value thread about say the weekend EPL fixtures and all wrote our true prices would we get somewhere then?
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Last 7 Days
Soccer: £365.52 | Tennis: £39.28 Total P&L: £404.80 Soccer Showing 1 - 20 of 32 markets Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£) Soccer / Universidad de Chile v Deportivo Quito : Over/Under 6.5 Goals 11-May-12 02:00 11-May-12 03:57 -2.57 Soccer / Universidad de Chile v Deportivo Quito : Over/Under 2.5 goals 11-May-12 02:00 11-May-12 02:41 66.57 Soccer / H Berlin v Fortuna Dusseldorf : Correct Score 10-May-12 19:30 10-May-12 21:21 9.51 Soccer / New York Red Bulls v Houston Dynamo : Match Odds 09-May-12 23:59 10-May-12 02:04 12.74 Soccer / Birmingham v Blackpool : Match Odds 09-May-12 19:45 09-May-12 21:40 38.04 Soccer / Atl Madrid v Ath Bilbao : Over/Under 2.5 goals 09-May-12 19:45 09-May-12 21:30 33.30 Soccer / Atl Madrid v Ath Bilbao : Half Time Score 09-May-12 19:45 09-May-12 20:34 9.51 Soccer / Liverpool v Chelsea : Over/Under 5.5 Goals 08-May-12 20:00 08-May-12 21:56 47.55 Soccer / CSKA Moscow v Kuban Krasnodar : Match Odds 08-May-12 14:00 08-May-12 15:54 -0.83 Soccer / Blackburn v Wigan : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 07-May-12 20:00 07-May-12 21:59 -56.00 Soccer / Blackburn v Wigan : Match Odds 07-May-12 20:00 07-May-12 21:55 95.10 Soccer / Toulouse v Nice : Half Time 07-May-12 18:00 07-May-12 18:47 0.95 Soccer / West Ham v Cardiff : Match Odds 07-May-12 16:30 07-May-12 18:22 17.65 Soccer / M Morelia v Tigres : Match Odds 07-May-12 02:00 07-May-12 03:55 9.51 Soccer / Univ Catolica v Cobresal : Match Odds 06-May-12 23:30 07-May-12 01:18 5.61 Soccer / Valenciennes v Paris St-G : Match Odds 06-May-12 20:15 06-May-12 22:06 15.22 Soccer / Inter v AC Milan : Half Time 06-May-12 19:45 06-May-12 20:37 -22.72 Soccer / Galatasaray v Besiktas : Match Odds 06-May-12 17:00 06-May-12 19:01 38.04 Soccer / Standard v Genk : Match Odds 06-May-12 17:00 06-May-12 18:54 19.02 Soccer / Man Utd v Swansea : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 06-May-12 16:00 06-May-12 17:54 -91.03 Pages: 1 2 of 2 Pages |
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It is subjective. But if your subjective opinion is better than the market's, you win.
Tragically I have to go out now. Can't believe I have to walk away from this. |
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Thought I would start posting on here to keep on track with my bets much easier
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Bob you get on berdy today ??
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Bob, many of the posters you mention are in-play bettors, so their assessment of value before the game started might not be terribly relevant. And, of course, assessing it over one game isn't a terribly wise approach statistically.
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aw shucks Rob. no seriously this is good stuff. let's continue sometime. it could be fun
those who chat together, win together  |
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yes i'm not sure if "value" is the main betting aspect of Investor and SCV's style to name 2
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whats more profitable? over and under goals or laying half time scores? thanks guys
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yes i'm not sure if "value" is the main betting aspect of Investor and SCV's style to name 2
Well, unlike you, they won't just blindly back Overs 2.5 at the beginning of a match. From what I can gather, they'll wait for a match in which they think they've got an idea about how many goals there'll be. If think they're getting a good price with the odds currently offered, they'll play. They won't necessarily place the bet in the first minute. They might jump in at 60 mins, or 67 mins or whenever they think they've got a handle on the match. To that extent, they're going in when they see a good deal. It's up to you whether you want to refer to that as something other than looking for value. Their ability to work out when they're comfortable with the price being offered is something they'll have learned and refined over time. They wouldn't have been born with it. But hey, if you want to go on thinking other people were born as winners while you were born only as a mug, go ahead and be idiotic... |
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A model is a mathematical representation of the sport. It will tell you how the probabilities change over time.
In tennis, for instance, you might start by assuming that the players win a point on their serve with a certain probability, p, and that each point is independent of every other. From this you can build up a simple model of how the match odds market should change according to the scoreline. ok Contrarian has been helpful here. do you have one of these models Bobbin? |
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would you trust anything like this Contrarian?
http://www.sportpunter.com/sports/tennis/ |
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Paul,
Really, value is at the heart of every successful bettor's strategy, whether they realise it or not. They might differ in how they find value, but it is impossible for them to win long-term unless they do. |
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ok. this is good. i honestly prefer this to all the childish bickering i trigger on here.
what about the link to the model above guys? also once we have value spotting down, there's trading and staking to consider. i think Federer is value later so i shall back him, but shud i trade out at 1.10 or leave it? if i trade out at 1.10 should i back again at 1.08 and hopefully trade out at 1.02 sorta thing? |
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i think peoples opinions on trading out differs, some will say would you make that bet without the first one there (so is it a value bet to trade)
though the way I see it is at 1.0x it's a cheap lay but if you're backing 1.10 not much room |
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I don't spot value I get value from the places I know it exists, like in the 1.01 laying thread. As contrarian says, all long term winners must be taking value bets although some of them deny it vehemently
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can you give me an example of value in any bet coming up?
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bob.vegas 11 May 12 16:36
ok. this is good. i honestly prefer this to all the childish bickering i trigger on here. what about the link to the model above guys? also once we have value spotting down, there's trading and staking to consider. i think Federer is value later so i shall back him, but shud i trade out at 1.10 or leave it? if i trade out at 1.10 should i back again at 1.08 and hopefully trade out at 1.02 sorta thing? No Paul , that is prob the worse thing to do. If you think Fed is value ( you obviously believe him to be a lower price which is fine ) then you back him with a % of your bank. Just because he is winning and a lower price you don't trade out for the sake of it because you ARE GIVING AWAY VALUE and this will kill you long term. Let your winning bets run |
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do you have one of these models Bobbin?
Not one that I use everyday Bob, no. I have a couple of angles I play again and again, and an idea of what sort of price a contender should be if either of those angles are present - I've been doing these two types of race for over two years now, so I've got a fairly good idea of what the price ought to be in most situations. If I can get the horse at a better price than my calculation of fair value, then I'll back it. A good bet will generally only come along two-four times a week, but that's enough for me. I do have a more general model of value that works on not too dissimilar lines to Contrarian's, but I'm still training that. It's not ready for realworld betting yet! |
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Bob, I watched the Spanish gp practice session 2 today and I would say lotus are looking more likely to win than their odds imply.
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ah splendid. i'll fetch my ATM card and wheelbarrow
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Why?
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lump on?
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Don't get carried away bob
even if you become adept at spotting value you have to execute the bets and still then you have to be thinking long term. |
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I don't think he meant he was going to enter his wheelbarrow for the F1 race, Cat!
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Buzzer, one step at a time. If he starts working out how to spot value, he'll be taking a big step forwards.
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Ha ha!
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At what odds will you lump on bob?
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and how does one do that Buzzer?
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5.3 now. should i take that?
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