Usually a top half finish is a coveted position for teams in the Premier League – perceived stability and a mark of transition from relegation strugglers to European contenders allows owners to push on in the transfer market and secure a better future for their club.
But last season was so tight in this market with just 7 points between 9th and 17th place that those teams just scraping into the top half were just as likely to be swamped in a relegation battle as they were to be pushing the bigger boys for a European berth and this season should be no different.
Of those that finished just inside the top 10 last year it looks likely that Swansea (2.54) could struggle in a similar way that Newcastle did last season with Europa League commitments stretching their relatively small squad. Michael Laudrup oversaw a seamless transition after Brendan Rodgers’ departure but the Dane should be happy to see his team secure another season of Premier League football while earning some extra income from European competition.
West Brom (2.86) who did so well to finish 8th last year will do very well to replicate that performance especially without star man Romelu Lukaku who has returned to his parent club Chelsea. Their poor run of form after Christmas last year is enough to put me off and although the signing of Nicolas Anelka looks good on paper we must remember that the Frenchman is now 34 and has spent a long time away from top class domestic football.
West Ham (2.84) look promising this season, without European commitments and with no major transfer departures in their squad will look to build on last season’s strong result. Sam Allardyce is a manager with plenty of calibre at this level and while not playing the most attractive football his teams do tend to grind out results.
Big Sam has a record of over-achieving – in his time at Bolton and Blackburn he enjoyed five finishes in the top half of the Premier League table and there’s no reason he won’t do the same again with West Ham.
With the permanent acquisition of Andy Carroll as well as the arrival of his old Liverpool team mate Stewart Downing, the Hammers have set out their stall as a direct and physical outfit in the typical Allardyce style. The likes of Joe Cole, Matt Jarvis and Downing will provide Carroll with plenty of ammunition and if the big Geordie can stay fit then there’s no reason he can’t shoot West Ham to a top 10 finish again.
Of the others, Southampton (2.5) can only improve on last season’s performance. The signing of Victor Wanyama from Celtic is a major coup for the South Coast club and with manager Mauricio Pochettino having a full pre-season to impart his systems on the team they should challenge the likes of West Ham all the way.
The difficulty in this market is exemplified by the fact that we haven’t even mentioned the likes of Newcastle (2.56), Aston Villa (2.82) and Fulham (3.4) – all well-established Premier League sides whose fans usually expect to be pushing for Europe. But Newcastle’s boardroom problems, Villa’s over-reliance on Christian Benteke and Fulham’s lack of pizzazz under Martin Jol are all enough to put me off.
Summary - Back West Ham to finish in the top 10 at 2.84 (1 point)
Premier League betting preview – Part One – Race for the title: http://goo.gl/VyEfCz
Premier League betting preview – Part Two – Scrap for survival: http://goo.gl/eex6Jq
You can follow Evan on twitter @ev_bartlett
NB - Odds correct as of 13th August 2013