A full roster of international action meant we had a week off last weekend but a return to domestic action means a return to top-quality betting tips.
This week Evan Bartlett predicts plenty of goals in England and Germany, fancies Atletico Madrid to continue their perfect start to the season in La Liga and picks a winner from the clash of the new boys in Serie A.
The European Football Column made a tidy profit of +31.25% in week #3, extending its winning start to the season. Let’s hope that form continues into week #4...
Premier League – England
Despite only scoring three goals this season, Liverpool sit in first place in the Premier League table thanks to three single-goal victories and will be looking to extend that run of form against Swansea.
The Swans on the other hand will be ruing their luck – with four of their first six fixtures coming against teams from the top 7 of last season – they sit down in 16th thanks to two early defeats.
But despite those losses to Manchester United and Tottenham, the Welsh club showed their class with a 2-0 victory in a tricky away game against West Brom last time out and will be a stern test for the Merseysiders this weekend.
Both clubs have plenty of goalscoring prowess – Liverpool averaged 2 goals per game away from home last season with Swansea managing 1.47 at the Liberty Stadium – so we can expect plenty of goals here.
Odds of 2.06 on over 2.5 goals look to be a steal with the likes of Michu, WIlfried Bony, Steven Gerrard and Daniel Sturridge all set to feature this weekend.
La Liga – Spain
Well Real Madrid did it at last. Gareth Bale will join the likes of Cristiano Ronaldo, Isco and Luka Modric at the Santiago Bernabeu as they look to close in on La Décima (their 10th European crown).
But it’s across the capital we look this week, to Atletico Madrid, who look strong favourites to beat a struggling Almeria.
Atleti sit atop the La Liga table at this early stage with 3 wins out of 3 and signs that David Villa is starting to settle into their already impressive forward line are encouraging.
Simeone’s men love to get off to quick starts – looking back at their last 25 victories in the league, going back to the beginning of last season, they have been ahead at half-time in an impressive 15 of those games.
If we consider that they should dismiss Almeria with ease, we can infer that it is likely they will be ahead by half-time and put the game to bed comfortably before the 90 minutes are up – making odds of 1.81 on Atletico to be winning at HT/FT just too good to miss.
Serie A – Italy
With attention returning to Serie A after the national team secured their place at next summer’s World Cup the main surprise has to be the long odds on Verona for their home clash against fellow new boys Sassuolo.
Despite winning the Serie B title last season, Sassuolo have looked out of their depth so far in Serie A – currently sitting bottom of the pile after two games and favourites to go down with odds of 1.68.
The Gialloblu, on the other hand, have strengthened drastically in the close season and look much stronger than their odds of 2.26 for victory suggest.
Their return to Serie A was announced with that 2-1 win over Milan on the opening day with veteran Luca Toni bagging twice. And despite a disappointing defeat to Roma since, I expect Andrea Mandorlini’s men to do the business this weekend.
Defensive solidity, marked by the best record in Serie B last season, coupled with an improved attacking line-up means all signs are promising for the team from Veneto.
Bundesliga – Germany
Has there ever been a game more destined to be a goal-fest than Sunday’s encounter between Hoffenheim and Borussia Monchengladbach? The eight games involving these two teams this season have featured an incredible 42 goals.
A leaky defence coupled with incisive counter-attacking play mean Hoffenheim not only have the worst defensive record in the Bundesliga – conceding 12, but also the most goals in favour – scoring 12.
In return, M’gladbach have the second best attack in the league (scoring 10) and a comparatively much ‘stronger’ defence – only conceding 8!
Thankfully for Hoffenheim, their two top scorers this season, Roberto Firmino and Kevin Volland, didn’t make it into their national team squads in the recent break and should be firing on all cylinders with a return of domestic fixtures.
Picking a winner in this clash is tricky, both teams are so unpredictable – a 5-1 victory here, a 6-2 defeat there. Perhaps home advantage will play into Hoffenheim’s hands but the best bet has to be over 2.5 goals at 1.7.
Summary
Back over 2.5 goals between Liverpool and Swansea @ 2.06 (1 pt)
Back Atletico/Atletico in the HT/FT market @ 1.81 (1 pt)
Back Verona to beat Sassuolo @ 2.26 (1 pt)
Back over 2.5 goals between Hoffenheim and M’gladbach @ 1.7 (2 pts)
NB: Odds correct as of 12th September 2013.
Evan Bartlett is a freelance journalist specialising in football and cricket.
You can follow him on Twitter @ev_bartlett
2013/14 P/L
Wagered: 10 pts
Returned: 13.29 pts
P/L: +32.9%
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