After a great start to the season, this blog has seen an enviable return on investment of +52.13% and after picking three winner on his Betting.Betfair debut, Evan Bartlett returns to the Betfair Community with 4 selections ahead of this weekend’s European football action.
In the Premier League, it’s a battle between two of the nation’s most expansive attacking outfits, La Liga witnesses two teams who don’t know how to win, the resurgence of a sleeping giant in Italy and a nitty-gritty mid-table clash in the Bundesliga. Enjoy.
Premier League – Swansea v Arsenal
Arsenal have been in great form this season – following a shaky start in a 3-1 loss to Aston Villa at the Emirates and serious questions being asked about Arsene Wenger’s transfer policy, the Gunners have bounced back with a run of seven wins in a row and have set a new club transfer record with the signing of Mesut Ozil from Real Madrid.
The arrival of the German has galvanised an air of optimism around north London into high-quality attacking play, yielding 10 goals in their last four Premier League games to send them top of the table.
Their opponents on Saturday will be Michael Laudrup’s Swansea who, after a very tricky run of games, proven that they are well capable of building on what was a highly impressive season last year.
The Swans currently sit in the top half of the table and enjoyed one of the most famous results in the club’s history with a 3-0 victory of Valencia at the Mestalla last week.
With the ten games these two sides have played this season witnessing 31 goals and the return of a prolific Nicklas Bendtner in midweek for Arsenal... chances are that odds of 1.84 on over 2.5 goals look very promising.
La Liga – Real Sociedad v Sevilla
Since an opening day victory over lowly Getafe and impressive win over Lyon in the Champions League qualifying round, Real Sociedad have really struggled for form going five games without a win and only finding the net on two occasions.
Sevilla, the visitors to Anoeta on Saturday, have also had a poor start to the season and only picked up their first win in midweek against Rayo.
Their defeat to Valencia last weekend exposed the type of performance their fans on the south coast are unaccustomed to.
This is really a tricky one to call – with both teams having the potential to lose easily and although home favour lies with Sociedad here, slim odds of 2.26 aren’t enough to tempt me. Instead, the draw looks like a good option.
No stadium in Spain witnessed more draws than Anoeta last season (7) and no team drew more on the road than Sevilla (7) and therefore the most attractive bet must be the draw at long odds of 3.55.
Serie A – Cagliari v Inter
Over in Italy, Walter Mazzarri has been working wonders at the blue and black end of San Siro. His Internazionale side currently sit 2nd in Serie A after an unbeaten start to the season that has included a 7-0 thrashing of new boys Sassuolo and the up-and-coming Fiorentina.
Sitting 2nd in the table isn’t that unusual for one of Italy’s premier clubs but when you consider that last season they sacked manager Andrea Stramaccioni after just one season in charge, a season in which the Nerazzurri finished in a lowly 9th place.
This weekend they face Cagliari away in Sardinia and look to be a good option as favourites at 2.02.
Cagliari have gone four games without a win in the league and look to be vulnerable at the back, conceding eight goals in just five games and are yet to keep a clean sheet this season.
Bundesliga – Werder Bremen v Nurnberg
There have been an incredible 176 goals in the Bundesliga already this season at an average of over 3.2 goals per game. Therefore the odds on over/under 2.5 goals have become slightly skewed with very low odds on over 2.5 goals for most games.
However, there is one fixture that jumps out this weekend in what could potentially be a low scoring encounter.
Werder Bremen have struggled for consistency this season – winning three and losing three – and currently sit in mid-table.
Their opponents, FC Nurnberg are one of only three teams in the Bundesliga this season without a win and have struggled in the final third, only scoring six goals from their six games so far.
The 12 games these two teams have played this season have only reaped 28 goals at an average of just 2.33 and therefore odds of 1.97 on under 2.5 goals look tasty.
Summary
Back over 2.5 goals between Arsenal and Swansea @ 1.84 (2 pts)
Back the draw between Real Sociedad and Sevilla @ 3.55 (1 pt)
Back Inter to beat Cagliari @ 2.02 (1 pt)
Back under 2.5 goals between Werder Bremen and Nurnberg @1.97 (1 pt)
NB: Odds correct as of 27 September 2013
Evan Bartlett is a freelance journalist specialising in football and cricket.
You can follow him on Twitter @ev_bartlett
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Returned: 22.82 pts
P/L: +7.82 pts
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